第一上海证券有限公司 www.mystockhk.com 披露事项与免责声明 披露事项 本报告由第一上海证券有限公司("第一上海")编制，仅供机构投资者一般审阅。未经第一上海事先 明确书面许可，就本报告之任何材料、内容或印本，不得以任何方式复制、摘录、引用、更改、转移、 传输或分发给任何其他人。本报告所载的数据、工具及材料只提供给阁下作参考之用，并非作为或被 视为出售或购买或认购证券或其它金融票据，或就其作出要约或要约邀请，也不构成投资建议。阁下 不可依赖本报告中的任何内容作出任何投资决策。本报告及任何资料、材料及内容并未有考虑到个别 的投资者的特定投资目标、财务情况、风险承受能力或任何特别需要。阁下应综合考虑到本身的投资 目标、风险评估、财务及税务状况等因素，自行作出本身独立的投资决策。 第一上海或其一家或多家关联公司可能或已经，就本报告所载信息、评论或投资策略，发布不一致或 得出不同结论的其他报告或观点。信息、意见和估计均按"现况"提供，不提供任何形式的保证，并 可随时更改，恕不另行通知。 公司评论 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com.hk | --- | --- | - ...

Cloud Services and Market Leadership - Tencent Cloud's audio and video solutions have attracted more domestic and international clients, particularly in the media, entertainment, and live streaming industries, and have been ranked as the leader in the Chinese market by IDC for six consecutive years[1] Revenue and Profit Growth - Total revenue for Q1 2024 increased by 6% year-over-year to RMB 159.5 billion, with value-added services contributing 49% of total revenue, down from 53% in the same period last year[4] - Fintech and business services revenue grew by 7% year-over-year to RMB 52.3 billion in Q1 2024, driven by strong growth in wealth management services and video account merchant service fees[5] - The gross profit of fintech and business services increased by 42% year-over-year to RMB 23.9 billion in Q1 2024, with the gross margin rising from 34% to 46%[7] - Net profit attributable to equity holders of the company increased by 62% year-over-year to RMB 41.9 billion in Q1 2024, while non-IFRS net profit increased by 54% to RMB 50.3 billion[9] - Revenue from value-added services decreased by 0.9% year-over-year to RMB 78.6 billion in Q1 2024, but gross profit increased by 21% quarter-over-quarter to RMB 45 billion, with the gross margin rising from 54% to 57%[13] - Net profit for the period increased to RMB 4,265.1 million in Q1 2024, up from RMB 2,639.4 million in Q1 2023, representing a growth of 61.6%[26] - Total comprehensive income for the period rose to RMB 5,291.9 million in Q1 2024, compared to RMB 2,478.9 million in Q1 2023, a significant increase of 113.5%[26] - Equity attributable to the company's shareholders increased to RMB 51,673 million in Q1 2024, up from RMB 23,612 million in Q1 2023, reflecting a 118.8% growth[26] - The company's equity holders' profit attributable for the three months ended March 31, 2024, was RMB 41,889 million, compared to RMB 25,838 million for the same period in 2023[100] - Diluted earnings per share for the three months ended March 31, 2024, was RMB 4.386, up from RMB 2.639 for the same period in 2023[100] Financial Position and Cash Flow - The company's cash and cash equivalents stood at RMB 161 billion as of March 31, 2024, with total cash and equivalents including term deposits reaching RMB 445.3 billion[23] - The company's net cash position improved to RMB 92.5 billion as of March 31, 2024, compared to RMB 54.7 billion at the end of 2023[23] - Free cash flow generated in Q1 2024 was RMB 51.9 billion[51] - The company's total equity at the end of Q1 2024 stood at RMB 916,769 million, compared to RMB 873,681 million at the beginning of the year, showing a 4.9% increase[28] - The company's retained earnings increased to RMB 857,015 million at the end of Q1 2024, up from RMB 813,911 million at the beginning of the year[28] - Non-controlling interests increased to RMB 68,182 million at the end of Q1 2024, compared to RMB 65,090 million at the beginning of the year[28] Expenses and Costs - Transaction costs increased to RMB 34,603 million in Q1 2024, up from RMB 33,271 million in Q1 2023[65] - Employee benefits expenses decreased to RMB 26,032 million in Q1 2024, down from RMB 27,299 million in Q1 2023[65] - R&D expenses reached RMB 15,678 million in Q1 2024, compared to RMB 15,181 million in Q1 2023[65] - Amortization of intangible assets decreased to RMB 6,897 million in Q1 2024, down from RMB 9,442 million in Q1 2023[65] - Media content amortization was RMB 6,280 million in Q1 2024, down from RMB 8,804 million in Q1 2023[66] - Subsidies and tax refunds decreased to RMB 1,053 million in Q1 2024, down from RMB 2,740 million in Q1 2023[68] - The total remuneration cost for the three months ended March 31, 2024, was RMB 26 billion, compared to RMB 27.3 billion for the same period in 2023[145] Investments and Financial Instruments - Gains from deemed disposal of investments were RMB 3,982 million in Q1 2024, up from RMB 964 million in Q1 2023[69] - Fair value losses on financial instruments were RMB 1,041 million in Q1 2024, up from RMB 213 million in Q1 2023[70] - Investments in associates increased to RMB 250,954 million at the end of Q1 2024, up from RMB 245,659 million at the end of Q1 2023[80] - Fair value changes in financial assets measured at fair value through other comprehensive income were RMB 1,558.6 million in Q1 2024, down from RMB 3,559.5 million in Q1 2023[83] - The company's investment in associates had a fair value of approximately RMB 300.8 billion as of March 31, 2024, compared to RMB 351.594 billion as of December 31, 2023[102] - Impairment provisions for associates with signs of impairment totaled RMB 787 million for the three months ended March 31, 2024, compared to RMB 271 million for the same period in 2023[103] - The company's financial assets measured at fair value through profit or loss totaled RMB 226,228 million as of March 31, 2024, compared to RMB 226,048 million as of December 31, 2023[104] - The company's investment in listed enterprises under financial assets measured at fair value through profit or loss was RMB 13,740 million as of March 31, 2024, compared to RMB 11,495 million as of December 31, 2023[104] - The company's investment in unlisted enterprises under financial assets measured at fair value through profit or loss was RMB 190,259 million as of March 31, 2024, compared to RMB 190,698 million as of December 31, 2023[104] Tax and Financial Reporting - The company's current tax expense for the three months ended March 31, 2024, was RMB 11,987 million, compared to RMB 9,148 million for the same period in 2023[97] - The company's deferred tax expense for the three months ended March 31, 2024, was RMB 2,182 million, compared to RMB 2,317 million for the same period in 2023[97] - The company's total tax expense for the three months ended March 31, 2024, was RMB 14,169 million, compared to RMB 11,465 million for the same period in 2023[97] - The company's subsidiaries in Mainland China enjoy preferential corporate income tax rates of 15% and 10%[45] - The interim financial data has not been audited but has been reviewed by the auditor[58] - International Accounting Standards (IAS) are followed for financial reporting[190] Share Repurchases and Equity - The company repurchased and canceled shares worth RMB 8,941 million during Q1 2024[28] - The company repurchased a total of 51,040,000 shares at a total cost of approximately HKD 14.8 billion (excluding expenses) during the three months ended March 31, 2024[143] - The total number of share options as of March 31, 2024, was 114,697,849, with an average exercise price of HKD 346.17[111] - The number of reward shares increased from 132,989,249 at the beginning of the period to 145,478,862 at the end of March 31, 2024[113] - The number of share options exercised during the period was 17,411,183, with an average exercise price of HKD 232.33[111] - The number of reward shares granted during the period was 29,839,111, compared to 16,267,451 in the same period last year[113] - The company's total share options exercisable as of March 31, 2024, were 57,731,594, with an average exercise price of HKD 357.90[111] - The company's shares were repurchased at prices ranging from HKD 271.20 to HKD 308.60 per share during the three months ended March 31, 2024[130] - The company's total repurchase cost for January 2024 was HKD 9.824 billion, and for March 2024, it was HKD 5.010 billion[130] - The company's total repurchase cost for the three months ended March 31, 2024, was HKD 14.835 billion[130] Borrowings and Liabilities - Long-term USD bank loans (non-current portion) amounted to USD 10,997.3 million as of March 31, 2024, with interest rates ranging from SOFR + 0.80% to 0.95%[122] - Short-term RMB bank loans increased to RMB 11,116 million as of March 31, 2024, with interest rates ranging from 1.60% to 3.65%[123] - The company's total borrowings as of March 31, 2024, were RMB 201,191 million, compared to RMB 197,356 million at the end of 2023[122] - Long-term RMB bank loans (non-current portion) decreased to RMB 4,318.4 million as of March 31, 2024, from RMB 4,600 million at the end of 2023[122] - The company's long-term USD notes payable (non-current portion) amounted to RMB 130.974 billion as of March 31, 2024, compared to RMB 137.101 billion as of December 31, 2023[140] - The current portion of long-term USD notes payable was RMB 20.569 billion as of March 31, 2024, compared to RMB 14.161 billion as of December 31, 2023[140] - The total principal amount of notes payable and applicable interest rates remained consistent at USD 7.5 billion and USD 20.7 billion, respectively, as of March 31, 2024, and December 31, 2023[126] - The company's notes payable are unsecured, with interest rates ranging from 1.375% to 4.700%[141] Other Financial Metrics - EBITDA for Q1 2024 was RMB 65.1 billion, up from RMB 53.9 billion in the same period last year, while adjusted EBITDA increased to RMB 69.3 billion from RMB 59.5 billion[19] - Revenue for the three months ended March 31, 2024, was RMB 149.986 billion[34] - Gross profit for the period was RMB 68.182 billion[34] - Operating profit stood at RMB 38.042 billion after adjustments[34] - Net profit attributable to equity holders was RMB 26.394 billion[34] - Disposal gains net of related expenses amounted to RMB 5.059 billion[41] - Intangible asset amortization related to acquisitions was RMB 1.249 billion[39] - Donations for SSV and CPP projects totaled RMB 12 million[42] - Basic earnings per share were RMB 4.479[48] - Total equity as of January 1, 2023, was RMB 782,860 million, with retained earnings of RMB 705,981 million[55] - Comprehensive income for the period was RMB 24,789 million, including a net profit of RMB 25,838 million[55] - Revenue from value-added services for the three months ending March 31, 2024, was RMB 78,629 million, with a gross profit of RMB 45,022 million[64] - Revenue from fintech and business services for the three months ending March 31, 2024, was RMB 52,302 million, with a gross profit of RMB 23,851 million[64] - Total revenue for the three months ending March 31, 2024, was RMB 159,501 million, with a total gross profit of RMB 83,870 million[64] - Revenue from value-added services for the three months ending March 31, 2023, was RMB 79,337 million, with a gross profit of RMB 42,739 million[64] - Revenue from fintech and business services for the three months ending March 31, 2023, was RMB 48,701 million, with a gross profit of RMB 16,801 million[64] - Total revenue for the three months ending March 31, 2023, was RMB 149,986 million, with a total gross profit of RMB 68,182 million[64] - The company's shares have been listed on the Main Board of the Stock Exchange since June 16, 2004[57] - Accounts payable aged 0 to 30 days increased to RMB 106,962 million as of March 31, 2024, compared to RMB 94,537 million at the end of 2023[121] - The total number of employees as of March 31, 2024, was 104,787, compared to 106,221 as of March 31, 2023[144] - Daily active accounts (DAU) data is highlighted as a key metric[181] - Local market games refer to the company's operations in the Chinese market, excluding Hong Kong and Macau[182] - Earnings per share (EPS) is a significant financial metric mentioned[185] - Financial technology (FinTech) is a focus area for the company[186] - The company's financial assets include other comprehensive income and profit/loss items[187][188] - The company uses Hong Kong dollars (HKD) as its reporting currency[189] - International Data Corporation (IDC) is referenced as a data source[191] - Monthly active accounts (MAU) data is another key metric[194] - The company's financial data is reported in US dollars (USD) for international markets[198]

港股公司报告 | 公司点评 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 1 流水体量预期相对乐观。Supercell 新游戏《Squad busters》将于 5 月 29 日全球上线，截止 5 月 2 日预约数已超过 2000 万，目前已在加拿 大、丹麦和挪威等地区软启动。此外，《星之破晓》、《极品飞车：集结》 等新游戏亦有望于暑期上线。 驱动效果提升下，广告毛利延续强劲增长 ➢ 金融科技及企业服务：预计 1Q24 收入同比+8%，基数抬升导致增速 我们预计 1Q2024 金融科技及企业服务收入同比+8%，增速较 4Q2023 略有 回落，主要由于我们预计 1Q2024 金融科技服务收入高基数下增速回落至 高个位数水平（疫情防控政策优化后，1Q2023 线下商业支付活跃）。4Q2023 企业服务收入同比增长 20%，我们预计 1Q2024 增速有望延续，持续关注 视频号直播电商运营和基建投入进展。 公司金融科技及企业服务毛利率由 4Q2021 的 27.1%持续提升至 4Q2023 的 43.9%，2023 年金融科技及企业服务毛利同比增长 38%，其中包括宏观需求 回暖带动的经营杠杆恢复、云业务重组带动毛利率 ...

2024Q1，我们预计腾讯实现营收 1570 亿元，同比增长 5%。预计一季度网络广告稳健增长，游戏业务高基 数下仍在恢复。具体来看：①游戏方面，2024Q1 新品上线节奏较缓叠加去年春节期间同期高基数，预计收 入同比下滑 2%；从节奏上看，基数效应叠加重磅游戏《DNF》手游上线，预计腾讯游戏二季度开始恢复； ②广告方面，预计视频号将带动广告收入同比增长 18%；③金融科技及企业服务收入预计同比增长 7%，增 速环比放缓主要系去年同期为高基数。 2 图6: 腾讯金融科技及企业服务收入及增速（亿元、%) 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 证券研究报告 | 2024年04月23日 2024Q1，我们预计腾讯实现营收 1570 亿元，同比增长 5%。预计一季度网络广告稳健增长，游戏业务高基 数下仍在恢复。具体来看：①游戏方面，2024Q1 新品上线节奏较缓叠加去年春节期间同期高基数，预计收 入同比下滑 2%；从节奏上看，基数效应叠加重磅游戏《DNF》手游上线，预计腾讯游戏二季度开始恢复。 从具体游戏来看，我们观察到《王者荣耀》、《和平精英》在基数效应下，流水下滑。但中腰产品商业化 进展良好。除此以外，根 ...

隐证券 公 司 研 究 传媒/社交Ⅱ 腾讯控股（00700.HK） 2024 年 04 月 23 日 "DNF 手游"定档 5 月 21 日，助力游戏业务成长 投资评级：买入（维持） "DNF 手游"备受用户期待，上线表现可期，维持"买入"评级 储备游戏丰富，有望驱动游戏业务持续增长 视频号商业化进展迅速，仍有较大变现空间 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|-------------|-----------------------|---------------------|------------------|---------| | 指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入 ( 百万元 ) | 554,552 | 609,015 | 692,137 | 773,248 | 856,509 | | YOY(%) | (1.0) | 9.8 | 13.6 | 11.7 | 10.8 | | 净利润 ( 百万元 ) | 188,243 | 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings (0700 HK) with a target price of 430 HKD [68][117] Core Views - Tencent's shareholder return ratio has significantly increased from 11%-14% in 2016-2021 to 44%-47% in 2022-2023, driven by increased share buybacks and dividend payouts [3] - Tencent's 23Q4 Non-IFRS net profit reached 42 7 billion yuan, up 44% YoY, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates of 419 7 billion yuan [9] - Video account advertising and live e-commerce are expected to accelerate commercialization in 2024, with video account live streaming GMV growing 3x YoY in 2023 [117] Financial Performance - Tencent's 23Q4 revenue rose 15% YoY to 544 billion yuan in the fintech and business services segment, driven by commercial payment recovery and cloud service growth [66] - The company's 23Q4 advertising revenue grew 21% YoY to 298 billion yuan, outperforming the industry average, mainly due to strong demand for video account ads [83] - Tencent's 23Q4 gaming revenue in the domestic market declined 3% YoY to 270 billion yuan, impacted by seasonal weakness in flagship titles like Honor of Kings and Peacekeeper Elite [23] Shareholder Returns - Tencent's share buyback amount in 24Q1 reached 14 8 billion HKD, up 220% YoY, with plans to increase total buybacks to over 100 billion HKD in 2024 [147] - The company's shareholder return ratio (buybacks + dividends) as a percentage of Non-IFRS net profit increased from 11%-14% in 2016-2021 to 44%-47% in 2022-2023 [3] Video Account Ecosystem - Video account live streaming GMV grew 3x YoY in 2023, with apparel and jewelry categories contributing 38% and 15 8 billion yuan respectively to total GMV [18] - Tencent launched new monetization features for video account creators, including a revenue sharing program for accounts with 100+ followers and daily payout options [17] - The platform introduced lower service fees (1%) and shipping insurance subsidies during the 2023 Double 11 shopping festival to attract more merchants [20] Gaming Business - Tencent's domestic gaming revenue declined 3% YoY in 23Q4, mainly due to seasonal weakness in Honor of Kings and Peacekeeper Elite [23] - The company has a strong pipeline of new games, including DNF Mobile, Delta Force Hawk Ops, and Assassin's Creed Jade, expected to launch in 2024 [32][41] - Tencent's overseas gaming revenue remained stable in 23Q4, with PUBG Mobile generating 3 3 billion yuan in revenue, up 6% YoY [38] Cloud and Fintech - Tencent Cloud achieved 27% YoY revenue growth in 23Q4, with a 16% market share in China's cloud infrastructure services market [67] - The company's fintech services grew 15% YoY in 23Q4, driven by recovery in offline commercial payments and growth in wealth management and consumer lending services [66] Content Ecosystem - Tencent Video's paid subscribers reached 117 million in 23Q4, with exclusive dramas like Blossoms Shanghai and Heart's Question topping viewership charts [48] - Tencent Music Entertainment's online music paying users grew 20 6% YoY to 106 million in 23Q4, with ARPPU reaching a record high of 10 7 yuan [81]

2% 04/23 06/23 08/23 10/23 12/23 02/24 04/24 腾讯控股 恒生指数 -30% -24% -17% -11% -4% 盈利预测：注：港币兑人民币汇率采用 0.91:1。 [Table_Page] 跟踪研究|媒体Ⅱ [Table_Title] 【广发 传 媒 & 海 外 】 腾 讯 控 股 24Q1 前瞻：广告和金融企服业务驱动利润 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 能稳健，加大回购有效提振股价，游戏在下半年或带来估值催化。我们 调整 24~25 年收入预测至 6637、7217 亿元，同增 9.0%/8.7%，经调整 归母净利预计为 1826、2036 亿元，同增 15.8%、11.5%。基于 SOTP 法计算合理价值为 485.88 港元/股。维持买入评级。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | [Table_ 单位 Finance] : 人 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中银国际发布研究报告称，维持腾讯控股(00700)“买入”评级，将于5月14日公布2024财年第一季业绩。预计其收入将同比温和增长5%至1570亿元人民币;毛利率和经调整净利润率分别达到市场预期的49.7%和27.3%，目标价407港元。 该行认为，腾讯集团专注高质增长策略为未来的财务状况提供了明显的确定因素，预计第二财季至第四财季的收入同比加快增长，加上强劲的资本回报计划。 ...

想要读懂字节腾讯在长短剧赛道的攻守秘籍，要从两家耗时多年的 IP 之战寻找答案。 四年前，战争打响。 当时字节以番茄小说为代表的免费网文模式，打乱了以阅文集团为代表的稳固网文付费市场模式，阅文管理团队集体换班，在继任者程武的带领下，阅文扭亏为盈，但依然追赶不上对手番茄小说的增长速度，去年阅文再次换帅，由侯晓楠接棒。 四年后，战果初显。 作为付费网文的主阵地，稳住阵脚的阅文要保住在线阅读的内容基本盘，虽然去年净利润增长了 32.3% 至 8 亿，但全年营收同比下降 8% 至 70.1 亿，阅文依然面对压力。在财报中，阅文提出要在短剧和海外市场两个方向上发力，而这两个方向同时也是番茄小说的优势之处。 字节和腾讯，互相深入对方的腹地，成为对垒中的最明显之处。 相比之下，字节旗下的番茄小说想要的更多。凭借免费网文的流量模式优势，不光在去年开始打入出版物电子阅读市场，争夺腾讯旗下微信读书的高质量用户，还在长剧集市场中纵横联合，集齐了爱优腾三个合作伙伴，打造*IP 取得产业链顶端价值的意图非常明显。 今年可能就是收获战果的一年。这是一场孵化优质内容的竞争，更是一场效率和速度的比拼。 字节的网文免费派和腾讯的网文付费派，都 ...

近日，朱啸虎和张颖的隔空喊话，让沉寂已久的创投圈热闹了起来，一方在接受媒体采访时坚持投最近流行的投资策略——分红型投资才是真理，另一方则在朋友圈隔空反驳“真正有段位的美金LP是不会接受或者相信一个基金什么5年之内通过分红可以回本这种观点。”、“分红只是一个辅助手段，对于美金LP们来说，是真的是penny on the dollar，a totally meaningless endeavor。” 两者的诊断本质上是投资人对于风险和市场的预期正在发生变化。事实上，分红型投资从今年年初就已经逐渐出现在投资圈，甚至被不少人追捧，只能说是被这次的“隔空喊话”炒出了热度。 从本质上来看，很难说朱啸虎和张颖谁对谁错，只是对风险、企业增长的预期和判断有所不同。就像几年前朱啸虎在接受腾讯采访时说的一样——中国VC从来没有通过共识赚到钱。 那所谓的分红型投资真的成立吗？或者换一个问题，究竟是什么造成了大家集体要求分红型投资的焦虑呢？ 01 思考回路迥异的新LP 之所以会出现这种焦虑情绪，本质还是随着A股IPO变得困难，港股整体估值被低估的情况下，想要通过IPO或是并购完成退出的标的正在变得越来越少。机构既要给LP交代，又要在一 ...