Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the structural changes in the global AI industry as of early 2026, particularly highlighting the divergence in AI application markets between China and the United States [1][1]. Macro Trends and Market Divergence - The AI application market in China and the U.S. is experiencing a stark contrast, described as "ice and fire" [1][1]. - U.S. software stocks have significantly declined since January 2026, primarily due to concerns raised by Anthropic's release of an Agent product capable of fully automated workflows, which has disrupted market perceptions of software development costs and value [1][1]. AI Application Ecosystem - The Chinese AI application ecosystem is more inclined towards "closed-loop integration," with leading companies leveraging their own traffic and ecosystems to rapidly implement Agent functionalities [2][2]. - Since August 2025, upstream computing power (chips, devices, storage) has shown strong performance, while downstream application sectors (internet, software companies) have exhibited weakness [2][2]. Technology Evolution and Model Landscape - Basic models are entering a linear growth phase, with the first tier consisting of Anthropic, OpenAI, and Gemini, while the second tier includes Grok, Zhiyu, and Kimi [3][3]. - Domestic models like Tongyi Qianwen are lagging, while Deepseek V4 is expected to challenge the first tier [3][3]. - There has been no breakthrough leap in capabilities, but overall abilities are steadily improving [4][4]. - Multimodal capabilities are becoming critical, with models like Google’s NanoBanana enhancing Agent performance in various applications [4][4]. - Vertical models are shifting towards a "post-training + reinforcement learning" approach, internalizing expert reasoning rather than relying on external retrieval systems [4][4]. Comparison of Domestic and International AI Applications - In China, companies like ByteDance, Tencent, and Alibaba are integrating AI into their ecosystems effectively, with Alibaba's Tongyi Qianwen being recognized as the first true consumer-facing Agent [5][5]. - In contrast, international players like Anthropic focus on programming workflows, while OpenAI and Google are still primarily chatbot-oriented, lacking in task planning capabilities [5][5]. Investment Logic and Recommendations - Upstream sectors such as storage (DRAM/HBM/SSD), semiconductor equipment, and power equipment are expected to benefit from the shift in AI inference demand and TSMC's planned capital expenditure increase of 30%-40% in 2026 [6][6]. - Platform companies that integrate ecosystems, models, and traffic are highlighted, with Alibaba and Tencent being key players in China [6][6]. - Recommendations for terminal scene companies include Meitu, Roblox, and Reddit, while ToB tool companies like Adobe and Figma are noted for their collaborations with large model companies [7][7]. Core Judgments and Outlook - The year 2026 is termed the "third year of the Agent," with high market premiums but uncertain outcomes [7][7]. - The core competitiveness of Agents is shifting from "general dialogue" to "automated workflow execution," particularly in vertical fields like programming and healthcare [7][7]. - Domestic AI applications are advancing rapidly in consumer markets due to closed ecosystems, while international markets are more disruptive in B2B workflow automation [7][7]. - Storage demand is transitioning from training to inference, with SSDs expected to become the foundational infrastructure for the next generation of Agents [7][7]. - The document emphasizes a critical turning point in the AI industry from "model competition" to "application implementation," with clear divergence in paths between China and the U.S. [7][7].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports that the Chinese gaming and entertainment sector experienced significant stock price increases in 2025, with mid to large-cap stocks rising by 50% to 80% compared to the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index's 26% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The strong performance continued into early 2026, with some stocks increasing by as much as 30% compared to related indices' growth of approximately 3-5% [1] - The price increase is attributed to a combination of valuation expansion and earnings per share growth [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - For 2026, Goldman Sachs outlines key themes and debates for the sector, indicating that the risk-reward profile remains attractive but is more alpha-driven [1] - The firm prefers companies with new growth potential, such as those benefiting from AI application penetration and accelerated overseas expansion [1] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Companies that still have compound growth and profit expansion potential amid increasing competition, particularly with ByteDance raising competitive concerns, are favored [1] - Core buy stocks selected by Goldman Sachs include Tencent, NetEase, Kuaishou, Bilibili, and Tencent Music [1] Group 4: Stock Ratings - Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating on Tencent, adjusting the target price from HKD 770 to HKD 752 [1]

大摩闭门会：科技、金属、亚洲，开门普涨能持续么？ 260119_原文 发言人 00:01 543 on eat。各位投资者朋友，大家上午好。欢迎来到 1 周一度的大摩宏观策略谈。 发言人 00:14 今天我们聚焦开门红已经有差不多三个多礼拜了，到底是否能持续？而且这个开门红还不只是单独针对 中国股市，大家仔细一看，一个是亚洲股市，中国的近邻们，比如说日本、韩国都涨得很好。那么开年 以来中国甚至不是这里面涨得最多的这背后有什么原因，是否能持续？其次，具体一看各类资产价格， 科技股当然涨涨得比较强，但是资源材料股也是涨得比较好的。所以今天我们除了像往常一样，由我们 团队的经济学家郑明来分析经济数据和政策在前端，以及我们的首席策略师罗 A 来分析开门红的持续程 度。特别是上个礼拜监管层开始适度的降温，进行了一定的窗口指导。那背后反映了什么？能不能让这 个牛市更可持续？ 发言人 01:15 而且也重点请来了科技和资源行业的两位分析师 gary。他刚刚在北京上海等地拜访了中国头部的这些 互联网电商科技企业，对 AI 的应用，以及最近又被大家闹得沸沸扬扬的，对一些平台企业的反垄断调 查又浮出水面了。这块 AI 应用赶上了 ...

Accessible version Internet - Asia Pacific Year Ahead 2026: Stable Core, Dynamic Edge; Year of Real AI Adoption Price Objective Change YA2026: Stable fundamentals & reasonable valuations Fundamentals of Asia internet names remain steady going into 2026 given stable competition (barring a few pockets), improving regulatory clarity, focus on balancing revenue growth with profitability and investor concerns on unrestricted cash-burn going down. We remain positive on travel (resilient spends), gaming (AI driven ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][8][23] Core Views - Tencent is expected to achieve revenue of CNY 194.6 billion in Q4 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 13%. The network advertising sector is anticipated to perform steadily, benefiting from the release of advertising inventory and AI integration. The gaming business is expected to show strong performance, particularly with the game "Delta Action" [4][9] - The company is increasing its investment in AI, which is expected to offset some operational leverage release. The R&D expenses related to AI are projected to grow by 28% in Q4 2025 [4][10] - The gaming revenue is projected to reach CNY 58 billion in Q4 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 18%. Domestic game revenue is expected to grow by 16%, supported by established titles like "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" [5][21] - Marketing services revenue is expected to be CNY 41.3 billion in Q4 2025, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase, driven by AI enhancements in advertising [6][19] - Financial technology and enterprise services are projected to grow by 9% year-on-year, with revenue expected to reach CNY 61.2 billion in Q4 2025 [20] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q4 2025, Tencent's Non-IFRS operating profit is expected to be CNY 68.1 billion, a 15% increase year-on-year. The Non-IFRS net profit is projected to be CNY 65.2 billion, reflecting an 18% year-on-year growth, with a net profit margin of 34% [10][11] - The overall revenue for 2025 is forecasted to be CNY 752 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 14% [11][30] Gaming Sector - The gaming business is expected to generate CNY 58 billion in revenue for Q4 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 18%. The domestic gaming revenue is projected to grow by 16% [5][21] - Upcoming game releases, including "Delta Action" and "Future of Counterattack," are anticipated to enhance revenue streams [21] Marketing Services - Marketing services revenue is expected to reach CNY 41.3 billion in Q4 2025, with an 18% year-on-year increase. AI-driven advertising solutions are expected to improve operational efficiency for advertisers [6][19] Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Financial technology and enterprise services are projected to grow by 9% year-on-year, with expected revenue of CNY 61.2 billion in Q4 2025. The growth is primarily driven by payment services and the introduction of AI applications in WeChat mini-programs [20]

智通财经APP获悉，根据2026年1月19日披露数据，中国电信（00728）、绿色动力环保（01330）、凯 盛新能（01108）位居港股通持股比例前3位，分别为71.07%、69.49%、67.59%。此外，阿里巴巴－W （09988）、腾讯控股（00700）、建设银行（00939）在最近有统计数据的5个交易日内，持股额增幅最 大，分别为+40.28亿元、+32.91亿元、+14.32亿元;中国移动（00941）、中国铝业（02600）、中芯国际 （00981）在最近有统计数据的5个交易日内，持股额减幅最大，分别为-23.22亿元、-9.63亿元、-9.34亿 元。 | 公司名称 | 持股额变动 | 持股数变动 | | --- | --- | --- | | 阿里巴巴－W(09988) | +40.28亿元 | +2511.08万股 | | 腾讯控股(00700) | +32.91亿元 | +539.58万股 | | 建设银行(00939) | +14.32亿元 | +18363.32万股 | | 中国人寿(02628) | +13.53亿元 | +4225.17万股 | | 阿里健康(00241) | + ...

Group 1 - SK Hynix announced a record performance bonus of over 1.36 million KRW (approximately 640,000 RMB) per employee, benefiting from the AI boom, with stock prices increasing by 275% in 2025 [1] - The company has sold out all chip production capacity for 2026, indicating strong demand [1] Group 2 - Bubble Mart announced a share buyback plan, investing 251 million HKD to repurchase 1.4 million shares at prices ranging from 177.7 to 181.2 HKD per share [11] - Tencent and Taobao have invested in Zhijia Power Technology, a smart driving technology developer, indicating growing interest in AI and smart driving sectors [9] Group 3 - Tea Yan Yue Se is expanding its workforce in major cities, leading to speculation about market expansion, although the company clarified that this is part of regular personnel reserves [2][3] - The company currently operates 758 stores across four provinces and is known for its cautious expansion strategy [2] Group 4 - Vanke has been ordered to pay over 1.089 billion RMB due to enforcement actions, highlighting potential financial challenges [4] - The company is facing scrutiny as it navigates legal and financial obligations [4] Group 5 - The price of gold and silver has risen, with new investment copper bars being introduced in Shenzhen, although concerns about copper's investment viability were raised [2] - The market is reacting to rising commodity prices, which may influence consumer behavior and investment strategies [2]

智通财经APP获悉，1月15日,阿里巴巴-W（09988）、腾讯控股（00700）、建设银行（00939）南向资 金净流入金额位列市场前三，分别净流入19.54 亿、6.38 亿、3.58 亿 中国移动（00941）、紫金矿业（02899）、信达生物（01801）南向资金净流出金额位列市场前三，分 别净流出-8.83 亿、-4.50 亿、-4.35 亿 在净流出比方面，玖龙纸业（02689）、保利物业（06049）、安能物流（09956） 以-54.83%、-52.87%、-47.66%位列市场前三。 前10大净流入比榜 | 股票名称 | 净流入比↓ | 净流入(元) | 收盘价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 工银南方中国(03167) | 100.00% | 10.12 万 | 72.100（-1.53%） | | 361度(01361) | 78.85% | 2650.61 万 | 5.900（+0.85%） | | 秦港股份(03369) | 67.10% | 123.96 万 | 2.650（-1.12%） | | 南方港美科技(03442) | 64.23% | 376 ...

财经摆渡人 精研出品 破浪前行，共探财富新局 大家好欢迎收看【古今财鉴】 数据中心现在可是耗电大户。 中国信通院今年6月刚出的报告显示，这些家伙的用电量还在噌噌涨。 为了搞定这事，国家搞了"东数西算"工程。 我找腾讯战略发展部的碳中和高级顾问翟永平聊了聊，想弄明白数据中心的能源问题到底该咋解决。 西电东送还是东数西算？数据中心的能源大挪移 "东数西算"可不是拍脑袋想出来的。 2022年2月，国家发改委等四部委联合发文。 这次文件直接敲定了八大国家算力枢纽节点的建设计划。 到了去年12月，五部委又发了新文件，要深入实施这个工程。 现在全国形成了"八大枢纽、十大集群"的布局，把东部的数据需求引到西部处理。 有些对时延要求高的业务，比如直播、金融交易，就不太适合放在西部。 更何况，那边懂数据中心运维的技术人才也少，招人都费劲。 西部这低电价能撑多久呢？2010到2018年，光伏风电靠补贴发展得挺快。 西部最吸引人的就是电价。 那边水电、风电、太阳能资源多，电价能做到0.4元/千瓦时以下。 企业要是签个长期购电协议，或者搞绿电直连、微电网，成本还能再降。 2021年补贴取消后，市场一下子冷静了不少。 现在光伏发电基本 ...

Group 1 - The net buying of stocks includes SMIC at 4.61 billion, Hua Hong Semiconductor at 3.93 billion, Tencent Holdings at 2.73 billion, Alibaba-W at 2.65 billion, and Xiaomi Group-W at 1.66 billion [1] - The net selling includes China Mobile at 5.99 billion, UBTECH at 5.17 billion, and Meituan-W at 2.86 billion [1] - Southbound funds have continuously net bought Tencent for 9 days, totaling 99.5789 billion HKD; Alibaba for 6 days, totaling 46.8976 billion HKD; SMIC for 3 days, totaling 17.2669 billion HKD; and Hua Hong Semiconductor for 3 days, totaling 10.9327 billion HKD [3] Group 2 - China Mobile has seen net selling for 11 consecutive days, totaling 86.6225 billion HKD [4] - TSMC has raised its capital expenditure guidance for 2026 to 52-56 billion USD, indicating long-term demand driven by AI [6] - DRAM prices are rising, with some DDR4 models seeing weekly increases of over 12%, and Micron reports that AI demand now accounts for 50-60% of the DRAM market [6] Group 3 - Tencent's revenue is expected to grow by 12% year-on-year to 193.5 billion RMB, in line with market expectations, with a projected non-IFRS net profit increase of 15% to 63.9 billion RMB [7] - Alibaba's shareholding by Citigroup increased from 5.38% to 6.03% as of January 13 [7] - Xiaomi Group repurchased 4 million B shares for approximately 146 million HKD at a price of 36.36-36.52 HKD per share [8] Group 4 - UBTECH signed a humanoid robot service agreement with Airbus, which has purchased UBTECH's latest industrial humanoid robot Walker S2 for its manufacturing plant [8]