Core Viewpoint - DBS Bank maintains a "Buy" rating on Tencent Holdings (00700.HK) and raises the 12-month target price from HKD 786 to HKD 800, citing the strong support from AI applications for Tencent's core business segments: online gaming and online advertising [1] Group 1: Advertising Business - Tencent has launched an automated advertising solution named "AIM+", which shows early data indicating a higher return on investment (ROI) compared to traditional manual advertising methods due to more precise targeting and creative generation [1] - The bank expects that AI-driven improvements in advertising will enhance Tencent's revenue generation capabilities [1] Group 2: Gaming Business - In the gaming sector, AI-driven non-player characters (NPCs), more efficient content creation processes, and precise marketing tools are anticipated to deepen user engagement and improve monetization [1] - Based on the expected business improvements from AI technology, DBS has raised Tencent's adjusted profit forecasts for the fiscal years 2025 to 2027 by 4%, 5%, and 8% respectively [1] Group 3: Capital Expenditure and Supply Chain - Tencent's management has indicated that despite adjustments to the capital expenditure plan for fiscal year 2025 due to chip supply constraints, the company has sufficient chip reserves to meet internal AI application needs, ensuring that long-term revenue growth driven by AI remains unaffected [1] Group 4: Valuation - DBS employs a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method, assigning a 20x price-to-earnings ratio to Tencent's core business for fiscal year 2026, resulting in the target price of HKD 800, which corresponds to a 25x price-to-earnings ratio for fiscal year 2026, slightly above the past five-year average of 20x [2]

（原标题：港股通（深）净买入41.01亿港元） 11月19日恒生指数下跌0.38%，报收25830.65点，全天南向资金通过港股通渠道合计净买入65.91亿港元。 证券时报•数据宝统计，11月19日港股通全天合计成交金额为839.46亿港元，成交净买入65.91亿港元。 具体来看，沪市港股通成交金额499.62亿港 元，成交净买入24.89亿港元；深市港股通成交金额339.83亿港元，成交净买入41.01亿港元。 成交活跃股方面，沪市港股通前十大成交活跃股中，小米集团-W成交额为63.43亿港元，成交金额居首；其次是阿里巴巴-W、腾讯控股，成交金 额分别为43.48亿港元、23.65亿港元。以净买卖金额统计，小米集团-W净买入额为21.60亿港元，净买入金额居首，该股收盘股价下跌4.81%。净 卖出金额最多的是盈富基金，净卖出9.77亿港元，收盘股价下跌0.31%。 深市港股通前十大成交活跃股中，成交额居首的是小米集团-W，成交金额42.35亿港元；其次是阿里巴巴-W、中芯国际，成交金额分别为28.43亿 港元、14.45亿港元。以净买卖金额统计，有7只股为净买入，净买入金额最多的是阿里巴巴-W，净买入11. ...

证券时报·数据宝统计，腾讯控股在港交所公告显示，11月19日以每股619.500港元至630.500港元的价格 回购101.80万股，回购金额达6.36亿港元。该股当日收盘价622.500港元，下跌0.16%，全天成交额87.13 亿港元。 | 2025.06.05 | 97.50 | 517.500 | 509.500 | 50066.06 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025.06.04 | 98.00 | 513.000 | 507.500 | 50034.58 | | 2025.06.03 | 99.40 | 505.000 | 501.000 | 50046.74 | | 2025.06.02 | 101.30 | 498.400 | 490.000 | 50053.67 | | 2025.05.30 | 100.30 | 504.500 | 496.200 | 50062.21 | | 2025.05.29 | 98.50 | 511.500 | 504.000 | 50021.97 | | 2025.05.28 | 98.50 | 515.000 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant inflow of southbound capital into the Hong Kong stock market, driven by the increasing presence of high-quality Chinese companies and the attractiveness of valuations, which is expected to support a long-term "slow bull" market trend in Hong Kong stocks [3][10][16]. Group 1: Southbound Capital Inflow - As of November 10, southbound capital's cumulative net purchase of Hong Kong stocks exceeded 5 trillion HKD, continuing to grow [3]. - By November 19, southbound capital net inflow through the Stock Connect reached 65.91 million HKD, bringing the total net purchase for the year to over 1.34 trillion HKD, a 66% increase compared to the total inflow of 807.8 billion HKD in 2024 [5][6]. - The proportion of southbound capital in the total trading volume of the Hong Kong market has steadily increased from 15.6% at the beginning of 2024 to 23.6% in the third quarter of 2025 [6]. Group 2: Investment Trends and Sector Focus - The composition of southbound capital has shifted significantly, with technology and dividend-paying stocks becoming the primary focus, moving away from the banking sector, which previously dominated [7][8]. - The top ten holdings of southbound capital are now split between technology and high-dividend stocks, with Tencent Holdings and Alibaba being major players [8]. - Insurance funds and public funds are the main contributors to southbound capital, with insurance holdings surpassing 1 trillion RMB by the end of the third quarter [9]. Group 3: Future Growth Potential - Analysts predict that the southbound capital inflow could increase by 1.4 trillion RMB (approximately 1.54 trillion HKD) by the end of next year, with a potential growth of 10 trillion RMB (about 11 trillion HKD) over the next five years [11][13]. - The continuous inflow of long-term capital is expected to enhance market liquidity and optimize the capital market structure, supporting a sustainable "slow bull" market [13][14]. Group 4: Quality of Listed Companies - The article notes that more high-quality Chinese companies are choosing to list in Hong Kong, which enhances the market's attractiveness to both domestic and foreign investors [15][17]. - As of November 19, 2025, 88 companies have gone public in Hong Kong, raising a total of 250.5 billion HKD, a 172.44% increase from the previous year [17]. - The increasing number of globally competitive companies listed in Hong Kong is expected to attract more capital inflow, creating a positive feedback loop [18].

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market is becoming a crucial platform for global investors to share in the growth dividends of China's core assets, with significant inflows of southbound capital [1][12] - As of November 10, southbound capital's cumulative net purchases of Hong Kong stocks exceeded 5 trillion HKD, continuing to grow [1] - The influx of long-term mainland funds, primarily from insurance and public offerings, is expected to support a "slow bull" market in Hong Kong [1][8] Southbound Capital Inflows - As of November 19, southbound capital net inflows through the Stock Connect reached 65.91 million HKD, bringing the total for the year to over 1.34 trillion HKD, a 66% increase compared to the total inflow of 807.8 billion HKD in 2024 [2] - Cumulative net inflows since the launch of the Stock Connect have surpassed 5 trillion HKD [2][3] Market Dynamics - Southbound capital has become a core driver of liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market, with its share of total market turnover rising from 15.6% at the beginning of 2024 to 23.6% by the third quarter of 2025 [3] - The total market value of southbound capital holdings exceeded 6.3 trillion HKD by the end of the third quarter, representing a year-on-year increase of over 90% [3] Sector and Stock Preferences - The allocation of southbound capital has shifted significantly, with the banking sector previously dominating but now more evenly distributed across industries, including media, pharmaceuticals, and technology [3][4] - The top ten holdings of southbound capital are now characterized by a "technology + dividend" strategy, with Tencent Holdings and Alibaba being major beneficiaries [4] Fund Composition - Insurance funds and public funds constitute the majority of southbound capital, with insurance holdings surpassing 1 trillion RMB (approximately 1.4 trillion HKD) by the end of the third quarter [7] - Public fund holdings reached 1.01 trillion RMB, accounting for about 18% of total southbound capital [7] Future Projections - Predictions indicate that southbound capital could see an additional inflow of 1.4 trillion RMB (approximately 1.54 trillion HKD) by the end of next year, with a potential total increase of 10 trillion RMB (approximately 11 trillion HKD) over the next five years [8] - The continuous inflow of long-term capital is expected to enhance market fundamentals and support a "slow bull" market [8][9] Market Valuation and Asset Supply - The Hong Kong stock market is viewed as having significant allocation value, with lower valuation levels compared to other major global markets [11] - The influx of quality companies listing in Hong Kong is creating a virtuous cycle, enhancing market liquidity and attracting more capital [12][13] Historical Context - Historical analysis indicates that periods of outperformance in the Hong Kong stock market have been driven by the scarcity of assets, with current trends reflecting similar dynamics as seen in previous advantageous periods [14]

Core Viewpoint - WeBank's flagship product, WeLiDai, which once thrived on rapid loan disbursement, is now facing challenges such as declining personal consumption loan data, high user complaints, and a loss of Tencent's support, raising questions about its core competitiveness for the next decade [2][8][29] Group 1: Historical Context and Growth - WeBank was established in December 2014 with Tencent as a major shareholder, leveraging its vast user base to launch WeLiDai, which quickly gained popularity due to its efficiency and accessibility [9][11] - By the end of 2019, WeLiDai had issued loans totaling 3.7 trillion yuan, marking a 900-fold increase in less than four years [12] - WeBank's revenue grew from 230 million yuan in 2015 to 14.87 billion yuan by the end of 2019, a 65-fold increase, while its total assets reached 291.2 billion yuan [12][13] Group 2: Current Challenges - WeLiDai is experiencing "traffic anxiety" as user growth slows, with the number of effective personal loan customers decreasing from 49 million in 2021 to 25 million in 2024 [21][24] - The average loan amount per transaction has declined from 8,000 yuan in 2021 to 7,200 yuan in 2024, indicating a shift in customer demographics towards lower-income borrowers [24] - Complaints against WeBank have surged, with over 56,000 complaints reported, highlighting issues such as aggressive debt collection and data privacy concerns [26] Group 3: Strategic Shifts - In 2025, WeBank initiated a "new decade" strategy, shifting focus from growth to risk management and profitability, which includes transforming WeLiDai into a loan marketplace [29][30] - The company aims to filter high-risk customers and hopes to expand its B2B loan business, which has grown from 37.19% of total loans in 2021 to 49.44% by the end of 2024 [30] - Tencent's recent stock reduction and the introduction of its own lending product, "WeChat Fenfu," signal a potential competitive threat to WeLiDai's market position [31][32]

（1）LLM：公司于9 月末发布文生图模型混元图像3.0，性能达到行业领先水平，超过谷歌的Nano Banana 模型；（2）Agentic AI：将MCP 集成于微信生态内，推动智能体 AI 在小程序领域的应用，有 望将微信打造为AI 时代操作系统。CAPEX 方面，受芯片供给等因素影响，公司25Q3 CAPEX 为129.83 亿元，同比下降24%，环比下降32%。我们认为短期内，公司主要将算力资源投入于内部业务的使用， 如游戏、广告、混元基础模型能力升级等，对于外部云服务收入则相对谨慎，目前公司用于支持内部业 务发展的GPU 资源充足。 向后展望，腾讯正基于微信生态系统，开发微信内部AI 智能体，有望应用于电商、支付、办公等多场 景，打造AI 时代操作系统。 投资建议：公司游戏+广告核心业务贡献稳定盈利以及现金流增长，公司维持AI 投入，微信生态具备长 期AI 发展潜力，有望成为AI 时代操作系统。我们预计2025-2027 年公司实现营收7504/8339/9111 亿元； 经调整归母净利润2589/2987/3199 亿元；对应PE 分别为21.1/18.4/17.2 倍，维持"买入"评级。 推出智 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tencent's Q3 2025 performance significantly exceeded expectations, driven by a strong recovery in the gaming business and effective monetization of AI technology in advertising [1] Financial Performance - Tencent reported total revenue of 192.9 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 15%, surpassing market expectations by 2% [1] - Non-IFRS net profit attributable to shareholders reached 70.6 billion RMB, up 18% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations by 7% [1] - The gaming business grew by 23% year-on-year, with domestic growth at 15% and international growth at 43%, both significantly exceeding expectations [2][3] - Advertising revenue increased by 21% year-on-year, with a gross margin improvement of 3.7 percentage points to 56.4% [1] Gaming Business Insights - Domestic gaming revenue reached 42.8 billion RMB, with notable performances from long-standing games like "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" [2] - The new game "Delta Action" achieved over 30 million daily active users in September, ranking among the top three in revenue [2] - International gaming revenue reached 20.8 billion RMB, driven by strong performances from "PUBG Mobile" and new titles [2][3] - Despite a projected slowdown in international gaming growth in Q4 2025 due to high base effects, a robust pipeline of games for 2026 is expected to support long-term growth [2][3] AI and Advertising Performance - AI significantly enhanced advertising eCPM and inventory release efficiency, contributing to a 21% year-on-year increase in advertising revenue, totaling 36.2 billion RMB [3] - The gross margin for advertising improved from 53% to 57% year-on-year, driven by AI advancements [3] - AI-driven advertising targeting and technology upgrades contributed 40-50% of the eCPM increase [3] Other Business Segments - Financial Technology Services (FBS) revenue was 58.2 billion RMB, a 10% year-on-year increase, with a gross margin improvement of 2.4 percentage points to 50.2% [4] - The company experienced robust growth in online payments and improvements in offline retail and transportation sectors [4] - Cash capital expenditure for Q3 2025 was 20 billion RMB, with a downward adjustment in 2025 CapEx guidance due to temporary chip supply constraints rather than a strategic reduction [4] Investment Outlook - Tencent's Q3 performance highlights strong growth in gaming and AI-driven profit release, with a commitment to high-quality growth strategies [5] - The company maintains a "buy" rating, reflecting confidence in its strategic position in the consumer sector and healthy profit growth [5]

Core Insights - Tencent's Q3 2025 revenue reached 192.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15%, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 2% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2025 was 63.1 billion, up 19% year-on-year, surpassing Bloomberg's forecast by 12% [1] - AI is driving significant revenue growth across all business lines, with expectations for continued increases in AI penetration [1] Revenue Breakdown - Value-added services revenue for Q3 2025 was 95.9 billion, a 16% year-on-year increase, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 3% [1] - Game revenue reached 63.6 billion, up 23% year-on-year, surpassing Bloomberg's forecast by 5%, driven by both international and domestic games [1] - Daily active users (DAU) for "Peacekeeper Elite" reached a new high of 33 million, supported by AI enhancements [1] Advertising and Marketing Services - Marketing services revenue for Q3 2025 was 36.2 billion, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 2%, with a year-on-year growth of 20% [2] - The increase in advertising revenue is attributed to improved ad exposure and AI-driven eCPM enhancements [2] - The new intelligent advertising product AIM+ is expected to drive sustained high growth [2] Financial Technology and Cloud Services - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue for Q3 2025 was 58.2 billion, a 10% year-on-year increase, with payment business growth continuing to recover [2] - Cloud services revenue is primarily driven by AI-related service demand and merchant technology service fees [2] - Short-term cloud business growth may be limited due to prioritizing internal AI computing needs [2] Future Outlook - Anticipation for sustained growth in gaming and advertising, with new game releases expected to contribute to revenue in 2026 [3] - Adjusted IFRS net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 226 billion, 261.1 billion, and 297 billion respectively [3] - A sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation suggests a target price of 664.22 HKD, maintaining a "buy" rating [3]

Core Insights - The company reported Q3 2025 revenue of 192.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations of 188.8 billion yuan [1] - Non-IFRS net profit attributable to the parent company reached 70.6 billion yuan, up 18.0% year-on-year, also surpassing Bloomberg consensus [1] - Overall gross margin improved to 56%, up 2.6 percentage points year-on-year, with various business segments showing increased margins [1] Revenue Breakdown - Domestic and international gaming revenue exceeded expectations, with total online gaming revenue at 63.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.8% [2] - Domestic gaming market revenue was 42.8 billion yuan, up 15% year-on-year, benefiting from the success of "Delta Action" and growth in evergreen games [2] - International gaming market revenue reached 20.8 billion yuan, a 43% increase year-on-year, driven by growth from Supercell games and "PUBG MOBILE" [2] Advertising and AI Impact - Advertising revenue grew to 36.2 billion yuan, up 21% year-on-year, benefiting from increased ad exposure and AI-driven ECPM growth [2] - The company enhanced AI applications in advertising creation, delivery, recommendation, and performance analysis, leading to improved click-through and conversion rates [2] Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company is expected to maintain strong performance with adjusted net profit forecasts of 255.5 billion yuan, 285.8 billion yuan, and 318.2 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [3] - Corresponding PE ratios (Non-IFRS) are projected at 21, 19, and 17 times for 2025-2027 [3] - The company maintains a "buy" rating due to its solid business barriers and strong ecosystem across gaming, social platforms, advertising, and fintech [3]