Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that the recent VAT adjustment announced by China's three major telecom operators will have a significant negative impact on their profitability, as the affected services account for 45% to 60% of their projected service revenue for 2025 [1] Group 1: VAT Adjustment Impact - The VAT rate for mobile data, SMS/MMS, and internet broadband services will increase from 6% to 9% starting January 1 of this year [1] - The adjustment is expected to reduce service revenue for telecom operators by approximately 1.5% to 2% [1] Group 2: Profitability Forecast - Assuming a corporate income tax rate of 25% and not considering other costs or tax deductions, the net profit impact for the three major telecom operators by 2025 is estimated to be around 9% for China Mobile, 17.9% for China Telecom, and 18.2% for China Unicom [1] Group 3: Strategic Response - The three major telecom operators plan to enhance operational efficiency, focus on high-quality development, and accelerate transformation into emerging fields such as artificial intelligence and cloud services to mitigate the impact of the tax rate increase [1]

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2026年1月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中國電信股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2026年2月3日 第 1 頁 共 10 頁 v 1.2.0 II. 已發行股份及/或庫存股份變動及足夠公眾持股量的確認 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 是 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 00728 | 說明 | H股 | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數目 | | | 庫存股份數目 | | 已發行股份總數 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 13,877,410,000 | | | 0 | | 13,877,410,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | 0 | | 0 | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 13,877,410,000 | | | 0 | | 13,877, ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reports that the Chinese Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration have announced a new VAT classification, increasing the tax rate on mobile data, broadband access, and SMS/MMS from 6% to 9%, which will negatively impact the revenue and profits of major Chinese telecom operators [1] Group 1: Impact on Telecom Operators - The extent of the impact on revenue and profits depends on two factors: (1) the proportion of affected revenue and (2) the net profit margin [1] - China Telecom (00728) and China Unicom (00762) are projected to see their earnings per share (EPS) affected by 14.1% and 15.2% respectively, while China Mobile (00941) is expected to be impacted by 7.8% due to its higher profit margin [1] Group 2: Future Earnings and Dividends - Morgan Stanley notes that the current EPS and dividend forecasts for Chinese telecom stocks do not account for this tax rate adjustment [1] - If the dividend payout ratios (estimated at 77% for China Mobile, 78% for China Telecom, and 65% for China Unicom) are not increased, the three major operators may experience declines in EPS and dividends by 2026 [1] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The tax rate increase is considered a one-time adjustment, with growth rates expected to normalize starting in 2027 [1] - If domestic operators can pass the tax increase onto consumers through price hikes, there may be improvements in growth after 2027, although Morgan Stanley maintains a cautious outlook given the current moderate macro environment [1] Group 4: Industry Rating - Morgan Stanley has downgraded the industry rating for Chinese telecom stocks to "neutral" and adjusted the ratings for the three major telecom H-shares to "in line with the market" in light of the recent outlook for 2026 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the Telecom ETF Huatai (560300), which opened with a slight decline of 0.15% at 2.045 yuan [1] - Major holdings in the Telecom ETF include China Mobile, which remained unchanged, China Unicom with a rise of 0.62%, and China Telecom also unchanged. Other notable performers include China Satcom up by 1.97%, Zhongji Xuchuang up by 2.71%, Yinzhijie up by 0.73%, Xinyi Sheng up by 4.10%, ZTE up by 1.08%, Tianfu Communication up by 5.66%, and Zhongtian Technology up by 1.77% [1] - The performance benchmark for the Telecom ETF is the CSI Telecom Theme Index return, managed by Huatai Fund Management Co., Ltd. The fund manager is Wei Lizhu, and since its establishment on December 5, 2023, it has achieved a return of 105.17%, with a monthly return of 0.12% [1]

Core Insights - The top three companies by Hong Kong Stock Connect holding ratios are China Telecom (00728) at 70.97%, Green Power Environmental (01330) at 68.68%, and Haotian International Construction Investment (01341) at 66.96% [1] - Tencent Holdings (00700), Pop Mart (09992), and Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable (06869) saw the largest increases in holding amounts over the last five trading days, with increases of +2.954 billion, +1.333 billion, and +1.183 billion respectively [1] - Conversely, China Mobile (00941), Zijin Mining (02899), and Alibaba-W (09988) experienced the largest decreases in holding amounts, with reductions of -2.026 billion, -1.856 billion, and -1.609 billion respectively [2] Group 1: Top Holding Ratios - China Telecom (00728) has a holding of 9.851 billion shares, representing 70.97% [1] - Green Power Environmental (01330) has a holding of 0.278 billion shares, representing 68.68% [1] - Haotian International Construction Investment (01341) has a holding of 7.430 billion shares, representing 66.96% [1] Group 2: Recent Increases in Holdings - Tencent Holdings (00700) increased by +2.954 billion, with a change of +4.9354 million shares [1] - Pop Mart (09992) increased by +1.333 billion, with a change of +5.8896 million shares [1] - Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable (06869) increased by +1.183 billion, with a change of +13.9887 million shares [1] Group 3: Recent Decreases in Holdings - China Mobile (00941) decreased by -2.026 billion, with a change of -2.5982 million shares [2] - Zijin Mining (02899) decreased by -1.856 billion, with a change of -4.69103 million shares [2] - Alibaba-W (09988) decreased by -1.609 billion, with a change of -0.98507 million shares [2]

Core Insights - The report highlights the performance of various sectors in the A-share market, indicating a mixed trend with certain industries like electric grid and liquor leading the gains while others like precious metals and fertilizers lag behind [3][7][13] - The macroeconomic analysis suggests that while the GDP growth target for 2025 was achieved, structural issues such as weak demand persist, necessitating policy support to sustain growth momentum [10][11] - The telecommunications sector is experiencing significant changes due to tax adjustments, which may impact revenue and profit margins for major players like China Mobile, China Unicom, and China Telecom [3][6] Market Performance - The A-share market has shown volatility with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index experiencing declines of 2.48% and 2.69% respectively [1] - The telecommunications industry index outperformed the broader market, reflecting a 12.82% increase in December, driven by strong demand for communication equipment [27] - The new materials sector has also shown robust performance, with a 10.54% increase in January, significantly outperforming the broader indices [18] Industry Analysis - The report discusses the upcoming launch of DeepSeek's new AI model, DeepSeek V4, which is expected to surpass existing models in performance and could significantly impact the AI landscape [15][17] - The photovoltaic industry is highlighted for its strong growth, with over 300GW of new installations in 2025, despite facing challenges such as rising costs and regulatory changes [21][22] - The media sector is experiencing a surge in activity, particularly in gaming and film, with the upcoming Spring Festival expected to drive significant box office revenues [24][26] Economic Indicators - The report notes that China's GDP for 2025 reached 1401879 billion, marking a 5.0% increase from the previous year, with consumption playing a more significant role in growth [10] - The fixed asset investment showed a decline of 3.8%, indicating potential weaknesses in the investment landscape [10] - The telecommunications retail sector saw a year-on-year increase of 20.9% in 2025, reflecting strong consumer demand for communication devices [28] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to adopt a balanced strategy, focusing on sectors like AI and high-end manufacturing while also considering cyclical and resource sectors for potential opportunities [3][14] - The report suggests that the media sector, particularly gaming and film, presents high growth potential due to favorable policy environments and technological advancements in AI [26] - In the telecommunications sector, companies involved in optical fiber and AI mobile technologies are recommended for investment due to their growth prospects [31]

Core Viewpoint - The adjustment in the VAT tax category for telecommunications services in China will impact the revenue and profit of the company, as the VAT rate changes from 6% to 9% starting January 1, 2026 [1] Group 1: Tax Policy Changes - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration of China announced that from January 1, 2026, the tax category for services such as mobile data, SMS, MMS, and internet broadband access will change from value-added telecommunications services to basic telecommunications services [1] - The corresponding VAT rate for these services will increase from 6% to 9% [1] Group 2: Company Strategy - The company will fully implement its cloud transformation strategy, focusing on the construction of technology-driven enterprises [1] - The company aims to accelerate its AI+ initiatives and develop an integrated intelligent cloud service model that combines computing power, platforms, data, models, and applications [1] - The company is committed to fostering new growth drivers, enhancing quality, reducing costs, and improving efficiency to promote high-quality development [1]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The adjustment in the VAT rate for basic telecommunications services from 6% to 9% will impact the revenue and profit of China Telecom, which is focusing on advancing its cloud and AI strategies for high-quality development [1][2]. Trading Information - On February 2, China Telecom's stock closed at 5.74 yuan, down 4.33%, with a turnover rate of 0.5%, a trading volume of 3.9159 million shares, and a transaction value of 2.252 billion yuan [1]. - On the same day, the net outflow of main funds was 54.6244 million yuan, accounting for 2.43% of the total transaction value, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 54.3671 million yuan, also representing 2.41% of the total transaction value [1][2]. Company Announcement - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced that starting from January 1, 2026, the applicable tax category for mobile data services, SMS, MMS, and internet broadband access services will change from value-added telecommunications services to basic telecommunications services, resulting in an increase in the VAT rate from 6% to 9% [1][2]. - China Telecom will continue to promote its cloud transformation strategy and accelerate the development of technology-driven enterprises, implementing AI initiatives to create integrated intelligent cloud services [1].

恒生指数跌1.06%，恒生科技指数跌1.29%。电讯板块走低，中国联通跌超7%。，中国电信跌超6%。 (本文来自第一财经) 来源：第一财经 ...

Market Overview - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the Federal Reserve Chairman has triggered hawkish expectations, leading to significant volatility in global assets. The Hang Seng Index fell below the 27,000 mark, closing down 2.23% at 26,775.57 points with a total turnover of HKD 347.886 billion [1] - The current market pullback is viewed as a technical correction following a rapid increase, with the core issue being the sustainability of volatility and its impact on market performance. Despite the adjustment, key drivers for the market in Q1—liquidity improvement, capital resonance, and upward revisions in profit expectations—remain intact [1] Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - Sands China (01928) rose 4.05% to HKD 17.72, contributing 2.66 points to the Hang Seng Index. January's gross gaming revenue in Macau was MOP 22.633 billion, a 24% year-on-year increase, exceeding market expectations [2] - Lenovo Group (00992) increased by 1.8%, while Galaxy Entertainment (00027) rose by 1.56%. Conversely, China Unicom (00762) fell 6.29%, and Zijin Mining (02899) dropped 5.58%, negatively impacting the index [2] Sector Analysis Precious Metals and Commodities - Precious metals faced severe selling pressure following Warsh's nomination, with gold prices dropping below USD 4,450 per ounce, marking a new low since January 8. Silver prices also fell significantly, erasing all gains for the year [3] - The outlook for the non-ferrous sector is being reassessed, with Warsh's hawkish stance potentially reversing the "weak dollar" expectations, increasing price volatility for all non-ferrous metals [4] Telecommunications - Major telecom operators experienced declines, with China Unicom down 6.29%, China Telecom down 5.02%, and China Mobile down 2.26%. A recent tax adjustment from 6% to 9% on telecom services is expected to impact revenue and profits [4] Semiconductor Sector - Semiconductor stocks saw significant declines, with Huahong Semiconductor (01347) down 11.24% and Zhaoyi Innovation (03986) down 9.25%. The overall market sentiment in the semiconductor sector remains cautious due to recent price fluctuations in DRAM [5] Automotive Sector - The automotive sector faced collective declines, with XPeng Motors (09868) down 6.77% and Great Wall Motors (02333) down 4%. January sales showed a mixed performance, with XPeng reporting a 34.07% year-on-year decline [6] Oil and Gas Sector - Oil and oil service stocks fell sharply, with Shandong Molong (00568) down 10.7%. The recent easing of tensions between the U.S. and Iran contributed to a significant drop in WTI crude oil prices [7] Notable Stock Movements - MINIMAX (00100) surged 10.68% to HKD 523.5, driven by its unique technological capabilities and potential for revenue growth post-IPO [8] - China National Building Material (03323) issued a profit warning, predicting a loss of RMB 2.3 billion to RMB 4 billion for the year ending December 31, 2025 [9] - China Shenhua (01088) saw a decline of 5.07%, with expected profits for 2025 projected to fall by 10.6% to 18.6% year-on-year [10]