张夏 S1090513080006 zhangxia1@cmschina.com.cn 涂婧清 S1090520030001 tujingqing@cmschina.com.cn 王德健 研究助理 wangdejian@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 证券研究报告 | 策略研究 2025 年 8 月 25 日 流动性改善支持港股补涨，关注创新药与互联网机会 ——港股市场策略周报（0825） 近期流动性叙事的改善，或足以支持港股的补涨。业绩方面，港股目前业绩预 喜率为 2022 年以来新高。展望后市，我们仍然对港股保持乐观态度，方向上建 议聚焦与 A 股存在差异化的行业，节奏上建议先创新药、再互联网，最后新消 费。 定期报告 相关报告 1. 《港股 IPO 的抽水效应如何—— 港股系列研究报告（1）》 2. 《港股市场流动性跟踪框架—— 港股系列研究报告（2）》 ❑ 港股观点更新：流动性叙事的改变，或足以支持港股补涨。近期 Hibor 利率 快速上行后逐步稳定、鲍威尔表态显著转鸽，内外流动性的变化均指向一个 结论：港股流动性趋紧的叙事已经得到了边际改善。我们认为，流动性叙事 的改善已经足 ...

南向资金对港股通标的股的整体持股比例为18.52%，225只个股南向资金持股比例超20%。 | | | | 占已发行 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 代码 | 简称 | 持股量 | 股份比例 | 收盘价 | 日涨跌幅 | 行业 | | | | （万股） | | （港元） | （%） | | | | | | （%） | | | | | 00728 | 中国电信 | 1037218.61 | 74.73 | 6.180 | -1.44 | 电讯业 | | 01330 | 绿色动力环保 | 28298.40 | 69.97 | 5.010 | -0.60 | 工业 | | 01088 | 中国神华 | 229776.76 | 68.02 | 35.460 | -0.73 | 能源业 | | 01108 | 凯盛新能 | 16924.20 | 67.68 | 4.630 | -1.28 | 工业 | | 01065 | 天津创业环保股份 | 21886.21 | 64.36 | 3.960 | -0.25 | 公用事业 | | 03678 | ...

从特征来看，南向资金高比例持有的个股，多数为AH概念股，统计显示，南向资金持股超20%的个股 中，AH股共有124只，占比为55.36%；持有比例在10%~20%的个股中，AH股占比为15.00%。 以港交所行业分类进行统计，南向资金持股比例超20%的个股主要集中在医疗保健业、金融业、工业等 行业，分别有45只、33只、33只个股。（数据宝） 南向资金对港股通标的股的整体持股比例为18.42%，224只个股南向资金持股比例超20%。 互联互通机制下，内地投资者成为港股市场的重要参与者。证券时报•数据宝统计显示，截至8月8日， 港股通标的股中，南向资金合计持有4616.99亿股，占标的股总股本的比例达18.42%，合计持股市值 55983.79亿港元，占标的股总市值的比例为13.97%。 具体到单只标的股来看，南向资金持股量占总股本比例20%以上的有224只，持股比例在10%~20%的有 140只，持股比例在5%~10%的有100只，1%~5%的有78只，持股比例低于1%的为23只。南向资金持股 比例最高的是中国电信，最新持有103.68亿股，占港股已发行股份的比例为74.70%，其次是绿色动力环 保、中国神华 ...

Market Overview - Global major stock indices faced pressure, primarily due to the unexpected slowdown in the US labor market and trade policy disruptions [1] - The US non-farm payrolls added only 73,000 jobs in July, the lowest monthly increase since April 2020, raising concerns about economic stagflation [1] - Major US indices saw declines: Dow Jones down 2.92%, S&P 500 down 2.36%, and Nasdaq down 2.17% [1] - European markets also weakened, with Germany's DAX down 3.27% and France's CAC40 down 3.68% [1] - Asian markets experienced declines, with Japan's Nikkei 225 down 1.58% and South Korea's composite index down 2.40% [1] Commodity Prices - Commodity prices showed mixed trends, with energy commodities performing strongly; INE crude oil rose by 3.79% [2] - Industrial metals faced pressure, with SHFE copper down 1.17% and aluminum prices also retreating [2] - Precious metals saw gains, with COMEX gold futures up 2.41% while SHFE silver fell by 4.84% [2] - The weak US employment data suppressed industrial demand expectations, while Trump's tariff policies raised supply chain concerns [2] - Global gold ETF holdings reached a historical high due to increased demand for safe-haven assets [2] Industry Performance - In the A-share market, the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector rose by 2.95%, benefiting from favorable policies and strong growth among key drug companies [3] - The communication sector increased by 2.54%, driven by AI computing demand and accelerated 5G investments [3] - The media sector saw a 1.13% rise due to strong box office performance and the application of AI content generation technology [3] - The coal sector fell by 4.67% and non-ferrous metals by 4.62%, impacted by prior gains and weak industrial metal prices [3] - The real estate sector declined by 3.43% amid concerns over regulatory policies and industry adjustment pressures [3] Investment Focus - Short-term focus on three key areas: the artificial intelligence industry chain, innovative pharmaceuticals, and commodity supply-demand restructuring [4] - Investment strategy suggests selecting targets based on "high prosperity verification + dilemma reversal," focusing on AI computing infrastructure and innovative drug commercialization [4] - Long-term perspective indicates a likely upward trend in broad indices, with structural opportunities driven by industrial upgrades [4] - Key sectors to watch include technology (AI computing, military, innovative drugs), new consumption (smart home, health upgrades), and non-ferrous metals [4]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - Southbound funds have become significant participants in the Hong Kong stock market, holding 18.24% of the total shares of Hong Kong Stock Connect stocks, with a total market value of 55,994.41 billion HKD [1]. Group 1: Southbound Fund Holdings - As of July 29, southbound funds held a total of 4,563.87 million shares in Hong Kong Stock Connect stocks, representing 18.24% of the total share capital [1]. - The market value of shares held by southbound funds accounts for 13.77% of the total market capitalization of the stocks [1]. - There are 222 stocks where southbound funds hold over 20% of the total share capital, while 135 stocks have a holding ratio between 10% and 20% [1]. Group 2: Industry Distribution - The stocks with over 20% holdings by southbound funds are primarily concentrated in the healthcare, industrial, and financial sectors, with 43, 35, and 32 stocks respectively [2]. - Among the stocks with the highest southbound fund holdings, China Telecom leads with 74.69%, followed by Green Power Environmental and China Shenhua with 69.97% and 66.91% respectively [2]. Group 3: Characteristics of High Holdings - A majority of the stocks with high southbound fund holdings are AH concept stocks, with 125 out of 222 stocks (56.31%) having over 20% holdings being AH shares [1]. - The distribution of holdings shows that 14.81% of stocks with 10% to 20% holdings are also AH shares [1].

Group 1 - The overall shareholding ratio of southbound funds in Hong Kong Stock Connect stocks is 17.95%, with 214 stocks having a shareholding ratio exceeding 20% [1] - As of July 14, southbound funds held a total of 4,488.75 million shares, accounting for 17.95% of the total share capital of the stocks, with a market value of 52,366.47 billion HKD, representing 13.61% of the total market value [1] - The highest shareholding ratio by southbound funds is in China Telecom, with 1,031.38 million shares held, accounting for 74.31% of the issued shares [1] Group 2 - Southbound funds with a shareholding ratio exceeding 20% are mainly concentrated in the healthcare, industrial, and financial sectors, with 42, 33, and 31 stocks respectively [2] - The top stocks with high southbound fund holdings include China Telecom, Green Power Environmental, and China Shenhua, with shareholding ratios of 74.31%, 69.72%, and 67.33% respectively [2][3] - A significant portion of the stocks with high southbound fund holdings are AH concept stocks, with 120 out of 214 stocks (56.07%) having a shareholding ratio over 20% being AH stocks [1]

Group 1 - The overall shareholding ratio of southbound funds in Hong Kong Stock Connect stocks is 17.83%, with 213 stocks having a shareholding ratio exceeding 20% [1] - As of July 9, southbound funds held a total of 4,482.29 million shares, accounting for 17.83% of the total share capital of the stocks, with a total market value of 51,131.42 million HKD, representing 13.50% of the total market value [1] - The highest shareholding ratio by southbound funds is in China Telecom, with 103.31 million shares held, accounting for 74.43% of the issued shares [1] Group 2 - Southbound funds with a shareholding ratio exceeding 20% are mainly concentrated in the healthcare, industrial, and financial sectors, with 43, 32, and 31 stocks respectively [2] - The top stocks with high shareholding ratios include China Telecom (74.43%), Green Power Environmental (69.92%), and China Shenhua (67.37%) [2][3] - A significant portion of the stocks with high southbound fund holdings are AH concept stocks, with 119 out of 213 stocks (55.87%) having a shareholding ratio over 20% being AH stocks [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed down 131 points, ending at 23,157, after opening lower and briefly falling below the 23,000 mark [3][4] - The overall market turnover was 145.245 billion HKD, marking the lowest trading volume in nearly a month [4] - Major blue-chip stocks such as Alibaba and Meituan experienced declines of 0.6% and 1.7% respectively [3] Group 2: Retail Sector Insights - Hong Kong's retail sales value for April was estimated at 28.9 billion HKD, a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, marking the 14th consecutive month of decline [7][9] - The retail environment is described as unfavorable, with expectations that the sales figures are nearing a bottom, and a slight improvement is anticipated in the second half of the year [7] - Online sales accounted for 8.1% of total retail sales in April, with an estimated value of 2.3 billion HKD, down 3.5% year-on-year [9] Group 3: Corporate Developments - Anta Sports completed the acquisition of the Jack Wolfskin business for approximately 2.9 billion USD (about 22.62 billion HKD), which is expected to enhance its brand portfolio [11] - DiSheng Creation reported a 43.55% decline in net profit for the year ending March, with revenue down 19.93%, indicating challenges in adapting to changing consumer behaviors [12] - Vodafone and CK Hutchison completed the merger of their UK telecom businesses, creating a new entity named Vodafone Three, which will invest 11 billion GBP in developing a 5G network [13] Group 4: Strategic Moves in Digital Assets - OSL Group announced the acquisition of 90% of Evergreen Crest Holdings Ltd for 15 million USD (approximately 1.17 billion HKD), aiming to enter the Indonesian digital asset market [14]

Market Performance Review - The Hong Kong stock market continued to rebound this week, driven by a potential easing of US tariffs on China, with the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Composite Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 3.15%, 2.74%, and 1.96% respectively [4][14] - All major industry sectors, except telecommunications, saw gains this week, with healthcare and information technology sectors leading with weekly increases of approximately 8% and 6% [4][14] - As of the end of this week, the 5-year PE (TTM) valuation percentile for the Hang Seng Index rose to around 55%, still below the 5-year average [4] Market Valuation Level - The valuation level of the Hong Kong stock market remains below the 5-year average, indicating potential for future growth [4] Buyback Statistics - The total buyback amount for the week was 1.53 billion HKD, a decrease from 1.99 billion HKD the previous week, with 62 companies participating in buybacks, down from 78 [24][25] - AIA Group (1299.HK) led the buybacks with 913.64 million HKD, followed by HSBC Holdings (0005.HK) with 150.25 million HKD [24][25] - The financial sector saw the highest concentration of buyback amounts, driven by significant buybacks from AIA and HSBC [28] Southbound Fund Flow - The top net buying companies this week included Alibaba (9988.HK) with a net inflow of 4.197 billion HKD and Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) with 2.227 billion HKD [32] - Conversely, the top net selling companies included Xiaomi Group (1810.HK) with a net outflow of 4.540 billion HKD and China Mobile (0941.HK) with 1.875 billion HKD [33] Macroeconomic Environment Tracking - The political bureau meeting emphasized the urgency of expanding domestic demand amidst a severe external environment, indicating a focus on stabilizing economic growth [44][46] - The meeting also highlighted the need for proactive macroeconomic policies to counter external shocks and support domestic economic stability [46] - Recent data showed a 0.8% increase in profits for industrial enterprises in the first quarter, reflecting some improvement due to policy support, although external demand pressures remain [37][39] Sector Allocation Outlook - The report continues to favor sectors with relative economic resilience, such as automotive, technology, and internet industries, as well as low-valuation state-owned enterprises benefiting from policy support [46]

Group 1 - The company is exploring opportunities to enhance long-term shareholder value, including potential transactions related to its global telecommunications assets and operations, such as a possible spin-off listing [2][3] - As of the announcement date, the board has not made any decisions regarding transactions related to the company's global telecommunications business [3] - Shareholders and potential investors are advised that it is currently uncertain whether any transactions will take place [4] Group 2 - Reports indicate that the company will not sign any agreements regarding the sale of its Panama port next week, despite previous plans to finalize an agreement by April 2 [6] - The National Market Supervision Administration has stated that it will review the company's port transactions in accordance with the law [7] - As of March 28, the company's stock price closed at 45.15 HKD, with a total market capitalization of 1,729 billion HKD [8]