行业报告 | 行业研究周报 资料来源：聚源数据 2025 年 08 月 03 日 | 投资评级 | | | --- | --- | | 行业评级 | 强于大市（维持评级） | | 上次评级 | 强于大市 | 作者 刘奕町 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110523050001 liuyiting@tfzq.com 曾先毅 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110524060002 zengxianyi@tfzq.com 胡十尹 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110525010002 hushiyin@tfzq.com 吴亚宁 联系人 wuyaning@tfzq.com 行业走势图 -6% 6% 18% 30% 42% 54% 66% 78% 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 金属与材料 沪深300 相关报告 1 《金属与材料-行业研究周报:供给收 缩预期叠加反内卷催化，碳酸锂波动率 放大》 2025-07-27 2 《金属与材料-行业研究周报:从"反 内卷"到"稳增长"，强政策预期下重 视有色行情》 2025-07-20 3 《金属与材料-行业研究周报:战略重 估，MP 价格下限或打开稀 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [8] Core Views - The significant increase in lithium carbonate prices is primarily driven by supply contraction expectations and a rapid price correction due to regulatory actions against non-compliant mining practices [1] - Copper prices have shown a mixed performance, with market sentiment supporting price increases, but demand remains weak, limiting upward momentum [2][15] - Aluminum prices have risen due to external market influences and domestic production adjustments, although concerns about future demand in the photovoltaic sector persist [3][24] - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, have seen price increases driven by heightened risk aversion amid global trade uncertainties [4][30] - Tungsten prices have increased across the board, supported by resource scarcity and cautious market activity [5][63] - The rare earth sector is experiencing a recovery in fundamentals, with significant price increases for light and heavy rare earth elements [6][41] Summary by Sections Base Metals & Precious Metals - Copper: Prices have fluctuated, with a recent increase to 78,710 CNY/ton, but market demand remains weak, leading to cautious trading [2][15] - Aluminum: Prices rose to 20,630 CNY/ton, driven by external market trends and domestic production recovery, despite concerns in the photovoltaic sector [3][24] - Precious Metals: Gold averaged 780.69 CNY/gram, up 0.83%, and silver at 9,291 CNY/kg, up 2.02%, influenced by global trade tensions [4][30] Minor Metals - Lithium: Prices for lithium carbonate have stabilized, with market sentiment remaining cautious amid steady production [41][42] - Cobalt: Prices have increased slightly, but demand remains weak, leading to limited trading activity [43][44] - Tin: Prices have risen to 34,750 USD/ton, supported by supply-side reforms and low inventory levels [53][54] - Tungsten: Prices have increased due to resource scarcity, with black tungsten averaging 186,500 CNY/ton [5][63] - Molybdenum: Prices have shown a mixed trend, with recent increases due to supply disruptions and market optimism [68][69] Rare Earths - The rare earth market is witnessing a significant recovery, with prices for light rare earths like praseodymium-neodymium oxide rising to 514,000 CNY/ton [6][41]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Lithium and Rare Earth Industry**: The conference call primarily discusses the lithium and rare earth sectors, focusing on supply dynamics, pricing trends, and government regulations affecting these industries [1][3][6]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Supply Tightening in Lithium**: The verification report for lithium reserves in Yichun, Jiangxi Province, may lead to some companies being unable to renew mining licenses on time, potentially affecting lithium carbonate production by approximately 20,000 tons per month, which could drive prices up [1][4]. - **Impact of Qinghai Salt Lake Production**: Companies in Qinghai are less affected by the recent regulatory changes, but there are concerns about overproduction and illegal mining practices that could pose risks to lithium supply [1][5]. - **Government Regulation Intent**: The government aims to optimize the lithium industry by eliminating loss-making capacities and better understanding national strategic metal reserves, which has contributed to a rebound in lithium prices from low levels [1][6]. - **Rare Earth Supply-Demand Shift**: Initially, there was an oversupply of rare earths in May, but a shift to a supply deficit is expected in Q3, which is likely to significantly boost prices, with prices for products like gadolinium oxide nearing 500,000 yuan per ton [1][9]. - **Geopolitical Factors Enhancing Rare Earth Value**: The U.S.-China trade tensions have led to a reassessment of the strategic value of rare earths, with China limiting exports and the U.S. supporting local industries, thus enhancing the valuation of the rare earth sector [1][10]. - **Market Sentiment in Rare Earths**: The auction of gadolinium and niobium metals on the Baotou exchange has led to a price increase, reflecting heightened market activity and confidence, with bullish sentiment prevailing [1][12]. Additional Important Content - **Current Lithium Companies to Watch**: Companies such as Zhongmin Resources, Shengxing Lithium Energy, Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, and Yongxing Materials are highlighted for their stable stock performance and future growth potential [1][7]. - **Rare Earth Market Trends**: The rare earth market has shown significant improvement, with a tightening supply situation compared to the previous year, leading to a positive price outlook [1][9][13]. - **Investment Opportunities in Rare Earths**: The rare earth magnetic materials sector is recommended for investment, with companies like Northern Rare Earth and China Rare Earth being noted for their potential [1][15][17]. - **Precious Metals Market Outlook**: The precious metals market, particularly silver and gold, is viewed optimistically due to expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, with silver showing strong performance due to its dual financial and industrial attributes [2][16][18]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the lithium and rare earth industries, market dynamics, and investment opportunities.

从下游需求端来看，国海证券认为，近年来新能源车、风电、家电等需求持续高增，短期内人形机器人 也或将迎来量产，全新的应用场景将成为稀土磁材增长新引擎，预计2025年和2026年全球氧化镨钕需求 分别为11.7万吨和12.69万吨，同比增速为9.7%和8.4%，未来行业将继续维持供需紧平衡的状态。后续 稀土出口管制放松或对价格上涨有助推作用，稀土板块有望在估值提升之后再迎利润增厚的戴维斯双 击。 智通财经APP获悉，近日，稀土板块相继迎来利好。一方面，稀土多只概念股披露的半年报预告业绩表 现亮眼，包括盛和资源、宁波韵升、华宏科技、中科三环、中国稀土(00769)。在此之前，广晟有色及 北方稀土已分别于7月12日和10日发布预告。此外，受北方稀土、包钢股份提价刺激，稀土永磁板块7月 11日掀起涨停潮，北方稀土、包钢股份、中国稀土、盛和资源等涨停。 从业绩表现来看，已交出业绩预告的公司业绩表现超预期，净利润预告增速全部超过120%。最高为华 宏科技(3047.48%-3721.94%)，其次为北方稀土(1882.54%-2014.71%)。 北方稀土表示，业绩预增主要原因包括强化生产体系管理，推动产线联动及工艺升级， ...

中国稀土：蒋大伟先生因个人原因已辞任本公司执行董事及行政总裁，自二零二五年七月六日起生效。 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Rare Earth (00769.HK) is facing serious allegations of potential asset misappropriation and accumulating debts, leading to frequent visits from banks and suppliers, prompting the board to initiate an independent investigation [1][2] Group 1: Allegations and Investigations - The company received a complaint from an employee of its subsidiary in mainland China, alleging potential asset misappropriation [1] - An independent investigation has been commissioned to verify the allegations against two subsidiaries, Yixing Xinweili Refractory Materials Co., Ltd. and Yixing Xinweili Rare Earth Co., Ltd. [1] - The investigation revealed multiple lawsuits and enforcement cases involving the subsidiaries, with overdue debts exceeding their registered capital [1] - The subsidiaries have been listed as defendants and restricted from high consumption in China [1] Group 2: Board Actions and Responses - The board has decided to establish an independent investigation committee to address the complaint and verify the allegations [2] - The committee will consist of independent non-executive directors and will investigate asset misappropriation, internal controls, and compliance issues [2] - The committee is tasked with evaluating the impact on business operations and providing recommendations to the board [2] - The validity of a recent acquisition of 1,600 kilograms of tungsten bars is also under scrutiny, with board members asserting that the acquisition was authorized and agreed upon in a prior meeting [2]

10日，A股、港股午后全线回落，创业板指、科创50指数等跌超1%，恒生科技指数跌近1%。 具体来看，两市股指早盘窄幅震荡，午后加速下探。截至收盘，沪指跌0.44%报3384.82点，深证成指跌0.86% 报10162.18点，创业板指跌1.17%报2037.27点，科创50指数跌1.47%，北证50指数跌约1%，沪深北三市合计成 交14516亿元，较此前一日增加近1400亿元。 场内超4000股飘绿，半导体、军工、石油、券商、酿酒等板块走低；银行板块走强，民生银行一度涨约4%， 兴业银行、南京银行盘中创出新高；农业板块拉升，种业股表现亮眼，秋乐种业、康农种业涨超10%；离境退 税概念崛起，国航远洋30%涨停，宁波海运、南京港、连云港等涨停；创新药概念再度活跃，昂利康连续3日 涨停，一品红、泰恩康涨超9%均创出新高；稀土概念持续强势，中科磁业、科恒股份等涨停；短剧概念尾盘 异动，中文在线涨超13%，慈文传媒涨停；体育概念热度不减，共创草坪斩获7连板。 离境退税概念盘中大幅走高，截至收盘，国航远洋30%涨停，华光源海涨近27%，宁波远洋、南京港、连云港 等均涨停。 | 代码 | 名称 | 4 | 涨幅% | 现价 ...

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.33%, gaining 79 points to reach 24,261 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.33% [1] - Insurance funds continue to increase holdings in Chinese bank stocks, with institutions indicating significant valuation recovery potential for Hong Kong bank stocks [1] - Bank of Communications (01988) rose by 3.47%, China Everbright Bank (06818) increased by 1.86%, and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (01398) gained 1.68% [1] - Three-Synch Pharmaceutical (01530) surged over 11% to a new high after reaching a significant licensing agreement with Pfizer, with strong ASCO data performance [1] - Innovent Biologics (01801) rose over 3.42%, with a year-to-date increase of over 120%, as Morgan Stanley anticipates further clinical catalysts to boost stock performance [1] - InnoCare Pharma-B (09606) increased by 13%, recently disclosing clinical data for DB-1310, attracting attention from international pharmaceutical giants [1] - China Rare Earth (00769) surged over 17%, following a 60% increase in trading volume, with positive signals for rare earth exports [1] - Pop Mart International (09992) rose by 2.47%, continuing to set historical highs, with its Labubu brand gaining global popularity [1] - Airline stocks continued their recent upward trend, benefiting from falling oil prices and the appreciation of the Renminbi, with institutions optimistic about airline profitability [1] - Air China (00753) rose by 4.5%, China Eastern Airlines (00670) increased by 4.42%, China Southern Airlines (01055) gained 4.18%, and BOC Aviation (02588) rose by 3.42% [1] Group 2 - Zhi Zi Cheng Technology (09911) rose over 7%, approaching historical highs, as the company plans to establish its global headquarters in Hong Kong, with institutions optimistic about future profit margin improvement [2] - Dekang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry (02419) increased by 4.97% to a new high, with the company reporting sales of 869,400 pigs in May, drawing market attention to industry capacity regulation progress [2] - Shide Global (00487) surged nearly 140%, as Australia’s Crown Resorts expressed interest in acquiring the property where the Sixteen Piers Casino is located [2]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed a positive trend with the Hang Seng Index rising 1.63% to close at 24,181.43 points, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index also saw significant gains of 1.74% and 2.78% respectively, marking a technical bull market as they rose over 20% from April lows [1] - The trading volume for the day reached 245.83 billion HKD, indicating strong market activity [1] Blue Chip Performance - Kuaishou-W (01024) led the blue-chip stocks with a 5.58% increase, closing at 62.4 HKD, contributing 16.34 points to the Hang Seng Index [2] - Other notable performers included WuXi Biologics (02269) up 5.48%, SMIC (00981) up 5.1%, while Budweiser APAC (01876) and Zijin Mining (02899) experienced declines of 2.06% and 1.64% respectively [2] Sector Highlights - Major technology stocks collectively rose, with Kuaishou increasing over 5% and Meituan and JD.com both rising over 4% [3] - The innovative drug sector showed strong performance, with stocks like Eucure Biopharma-B (01477) up 19.45% and King’s Ray Biotech (01548) up 16.14% [3][4] - The Chinese securities sector saw a broad increase, with firms like Everbright Securities (06178) rising 5.27% and GF Securities (01776) up 4.66% [4] Regulatory Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission approved the transfer of control for eight companies to Central Huijin, which may lead to a new wave of mergers and acquisitions in the securities industry [5] Consumer and Technology Trends - The upcoming Apple Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC 2025) is expected to drive interest in consumer electronics and related stocks, with companies like AAC Technologies (01415) and Sunny Optical (02382) showing gains [6] - New consumption stocks also performed well, with companies like Bruker (00325) rising 22.34% [6][7] Commodity Movements - Gold stocks faced declines, with Shandong Gold (01787) down 3.99%, influenced by stable U.S. employment data which suggests the Federal Reserve may maintain its current interest rate stance [7] Notable Stock Movements - China Rare Earth (00769) surged 60% following news of eased export controls on rare earths, reflecting strong market interest [8] - Huicai Holdings (01180) experienced a dramatic drop of 47.54% before being suspended, indicating volatility in the entertainment equipment sector [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights significant stock movements in the Hong Kong and US markets, indicating potential investment opportunities and sector trends, particularly in technology, healthcare, and entertainment sectors [1][2][3]. Hong Kong Market Highlights - Mixue (02097) surged over 7%, while Bluetec (00325) rose over 16%, and Guming (01364) increased over 3% [1]. - Lion Group (02562) gained over 4% as it plans to acquire a domestic SaaS company with substantial market share [1]. - Apple-related stocks saw a broad increase, with Sunny Optical (02382) up nearly 4%, and other companies like Q Tech (01478) and AAC Technologies (02018) rising over 3% [1]. - Far East Pharmaceutical (00512) rose over 3% as it commenced international Phase III clinical trials for its innovative ophthalmic drug CBT-001 [1]. - Alibaba Pictures (01060) jumped over 16%, with a cumulative increase of nearly 140% over the past two weeks, focusing on Damao performances and IP derivatives [1]. - Global Data (09698) increased over 5% after signing a strategic agreement with China Life Investment for comprehensive cooperation in asset securitization [1]. - Three Life Pharmaceuticals (01530) rose over 5% following a significant licensing agreement with Pfizer, showcasing promising data for SSGJ-707 [1]. - JD Group (09618) gained nearly 5% after signing a strategic cooperation agreement with China Resources Group [1]. - Tencent Music (01698) increased over 6% as it expands its international footprint by investing in South Korea's SM Entertainment [1]. - Cinda Biologics (01801) rose over 6% due to promising early data for IBI363 in lung cancer, with Goldman Sachs previously indicating the stock was undervalued [1]. - SMIC (00981) increased nearly 4% as it plans to sell its stake in SMIC Ningbo to focus on its core business [1]. - Rare earth stocks surged, with China Rare Earth (00769) up over 48% [1]. - Fubo Group (03738) rose over 3% after completing a 138 million share placement to enhance its AI business [1]. - Friendship Time (06820) surged over 22%, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 90%, driven by positive market feedback on its new game [1]. - Military stocks collectively rose, with China Shipbuilding Defense (00317) increasing nearly 4% [1]. US Market Highlights - Huaxing Capital Holdings (01911) surged over 14% following the successful listing of stablecoin "first stock" Circle, in which its fund participated in 2018 [2]. - In the US market, Circle's stock skyrocketed nearly 30% on its second day of trading after an initial 168% surge [2]. - Lululemon (LULU.US) fell nearly 20% after lowering its full-year profit guidance [2]. - DocuSign (DOCU.US) dropped nearly 19% after revising its full-year billing revenue forecast downward [2]. - Virgin Galactic (SPCE.US) rose over 2%, with a peak increase of over 14%, as it announced a potential recovery in commercial space flight services [2]. - Nvidia's holdings saw a broad increase, with Applied Digital (APLD.US) up over 8% and Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX.US) rising over 20% [2]. - Robinhood (HOOD.US) fell 6.25% in after-hours trading, while AI stock Applovin (APP.US) dropped 5.53% [3].