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全球最大的火电上市公司静待电改取得突破: 华能国际

Hua Yuan Zheng Quan· 2024-04-26 02:30
Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for Huaneng International, marking its first coverage [4][7]. Core Viewpoints - Huaneng International is the flagship listed platform of Huaneng Group and the largest listed power generation company in China, with a total installed capacity of 136 million kilowatts as of December 2023, including 93.28 million kilowatts of coal power and 28.61 million kilowatts of renewable energy [4][12]. - The company has a strong performance recovery in 2023, achieving a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.446 billion yuan, compared to a loss of 3.942 billion yuan in the same period last year [4][26]. - The introduction of a capacity price mechanism for coal power is expected to significantly benefit the company, with potential annual compensation of 10 billion yuan for its coal power capacity [4][26]. Summary by Sections 1. Huaneng Group Flagship Platform - The Largest Power Generation Company - Huaneng International is the largest listed power generation company in China, with a diversified energy portfolio including coal, gas, wind, and solar power [4][12]. - As of December 2023, the company has achieved a total renewable energy installed capacity of 28.61 million kilowatts, with a target of adding 40 million kilowatts during the 14th Five-Year Plan [4][12]. 2. Capacity Price Mechanism and Long-term Opportunities - The capacity price mechanism introduced by the National Energy Administration in November 2023 is expected to transform the commercial model of coal power, allowing for a more stable revenue stream [4][26]. - The report highlights that the focus of market dynamics is shifting back to coal prices, with a potential increase in net profit of 8.5 billion yuan for every 100 yuan per ton decrease in coal prices [4][26]. 3. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profits for Huaneng International for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 12.735 billion yuan, 14.569 billion yuan, and 15.721 billion yuan respectively, with a corresponding PE ratio of 16, 13, and 12 [6][30]. - The report emphasizes that the company is well-positioned to benefit from the restructuring of the coal power mechanism, justifying the "Accumulate" rating [4][7].
火电盈利显著修复,风电利润稳定增长

国元国际控股· 2024-04-26 01:32
Investment Rating - The report updates the target price to HKD 5.89, representing a potential upside of 17% from the current price of HKD 5.03, and assigns a "Hold" rating [5][11]. Core Insights - In Q1 2024, the company reported a net profit of RMB 4.596 billion, a year-on-year increase of 104.25%, with total revenue of approximately RMB 65.367 billion, reflecting a slight increase of 0.15% [2][8]. - The company's coal power segment showed significant profit recovery, with coal machine profits totaling RMB 2.825 billion, compared to a loss of RMB 70 million in Q1 2023, benefiting from a 13% decrease in both benchmark coal prices and fuel costs [2][8]. - The company plans to add 10 GW of wind and solar capacity in 2024, with total installed capacity reaching 30.217 million kW, and the proportion of low-carbon clean energy increasing to 32% [3][9]. - Wind power profits in Q1 2024 reached RMB 2.414 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25.41%, indicating stable growth in this segment [3][9]. - Long-term reasonable returns from coal power are expected to support the company's dividend payout ratio, which reached 57.14% in 2023, with further improvements anticipated in 2024 [4][10]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from RMB 254.397 billion in 2023 to RMB 267.329 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.1% [5][14]. - The net profit is expected to increase significantly from RMB 8.357 billion in 2023 to RMB 11.980 billion in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 43.4% [5][14]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from RMB 0.35 in 2023 to RMB 0.7632 in 2024 [5][14].
煤电盈利同比大幅增长,新能源盈利表现稳健

Guoxin Securities· 2024-04-25 12:30
Investment Rating - The investment rating for Huaneng International (600011.SH) is "Buy" [4][10] Core Views - The company's revenue slightly increased, while net profit attributable to shareholders saw a significant year-on-year growth of 104.25% in Q1 2024, reaching 45.96 billion yuan. This growth was primarily driven by an increase in domestic power generation and a decrease in fuel costs [1][5] - The decline in coal prices has positively impacted thermal power profitability, with coal prices dropping by 17.91% year-on-year as of April 23, 2024. This trend is expected to stabilize thermal power profitability as the new electricity pricing policies are implemented [1][10] - The share of renewable energy installations continues to rise, with the company adding 1.61 GW of controllable power generation capacity in Q1 2024. The total controllable power generation capacity reached 137.12 GW, with wind and solar power accounting for 22.04% of the total [1][10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, Huaneng International achieved an operating revenue of 653.67 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.15%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 45.96 billion yuan, marking a 104.25% increase year-on-year. The company's average on-grid settlement price was 497.97 yuan/MWh, down 3.99% [1][5] - The profit from the coal-fired segment reached 28.25 billion yuan, up 4151.44%, while the wind and solar segments also showed positive growth [5][6] Market Trends - The company is experiencing a shift towards renewable energy, with significant capital expenditures planned for wind and solar projects, amounting to 295.44 billion yuan and 353.81 billion yuan respectively [1][10] - The expected net profit for 2024-2026 is projected to be 129.8 billion yuan, 143.1 billion yuan, and 155.5 billion yuan respectively, with earnings per share (EPS) forecasted at 0.83, 0.91, and 0.99 yuan [10][12] Valuation - The reasonable market capitalization for Huaneng International is estimated to be between 1504 billion yuan and 1634 billion yuan, with a corresponding fair value per share of 9.61 to 10.44 yuan, indicating a premium of 3% to 12% over the current stock price [10][12]
火电利润同比大增,公司一季度盈利符合预期

海通国际· 2024-04-25 01:02
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Huaneng Power International [3][5][10] Core Views - The company's performance in Q1 2024 is in line with expectations, driven by a significant recovery in thermal power profitability and a decrease in coal prices [7][10] - The report projects net profits for 2024-2026 to be CNY 12,132 million, CNY 13,230 million, and CNY 15,706 million respectively, with a target price set at HKD 5.32 based on a 7x PE valuation for 2024 [10] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2024, the company achieved revenue of CNY 65.367 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.15%, and a net profit of CNY 4.377 billion, a year-on-year increase of 117.98% [7][8] - The coal-fired sector contributed CNY 2.825 billion in profit, a year-on-year increase of 42 times, while the gas-fueled plants contributed CNY 536 million, a year-on-year increase of 64.34% [7][8] - The average on-grid electricity price in Q1 2024 was CNY 498 per MWh, a decrease of approximately 4% year-on-year [8][9] Segment Performance - The company sold 113.036 billion kWh of electricity in Q1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.63%, with significant growth in new energy sources [8][9] - New energy capacity increased by approximately 16GW in Q1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 99.7%, with wind power accounting for 54% of the new installations [9][10] Profitability Metrics - The report forecasts gross margins to improve from 12.1% in 2023 to 16.7% by 2026, with net margins expected to rise from 3.3% to 5.7% over the same period [6][10] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 7.0% in 2023 to 10.1% by 2026 [6][10]
业绩超预期,煤电持续改善,风光电量高增

GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2024-04-24 13:32
证券研究报告 | 季报点评 2024年04月24日 华能国际(600011.SH) 业绩超预期,煤电持续改善,风光电量高增 事件: 公司发布 2024 年一季度业绩报告。2023 年第一季度,公司实现营 买入(维持) 业收入653.67亿元,同比增长0.15%;实现归母净利润45.96亿元,同比 股票信息 增长 104.25%;扣非归母净利润 43.77 亿元,同比增长 117.98%,基本每 股收益 0.25 元。单季度业绩高增长,主要系燃料成本下降,煤电利润持续 行业 电力 改善及电量增长。 前次评级 买入 4月23日收盘价(元) 9.31 火电:度电利润环比明显改善,盈利能力持续提升。Q1公司燃煤/燃机发电 总市值(百万元) 146,149.25 量分别为922.67/71.54亿千瓦时,同比分别+3.05%/-1.73%;利润总额分 总股本(百万股) 15,698.09 别为28.25亿元/5.36亿元(23Q1煤电利润总额-0.7亿),同比大幅提升。 其中自由流通股(%) 70.06 测算 Q1 燃煤/燃机度电利润分别为 0.031/0.075 元,较 2023 年分别提升 30日日均成交量(百万股 ...
一季度业绩超预期,成本回落助力火电业绩显著修复

申万宏源· 2024-04-24 09:02
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in net profit for Q1 2024, reaching 4.596 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 104.25%, slightly exceeding expectations [4] - The improvement in performance is attributed to the recovery of thermal power profitability and rapid growth in renewable energy [4] - The report highlights a substantial decrease in fuel costs, contributing to enhanced profitability in the coal power segment [4] - The company is expected to continue benefiting from declining coal prices and increasing renewable energy installations [4] Summary by Sections Market Data - Closing price: 9.31 yuan - One-year high/low: 10.55/6.9 yuan - Price-to-book ratio: 1.1 - Circulating A-share market value: 102,389 million yuan [2] Financial Performance - Q1 2024 total revenue: 65,367 million yuan - Q1 2024 net profit: 4,596 million yuan - Q1 2024 gross profit margin: 16.1% - Q1 2024 return on equity (ROE): 3.4% [5][6] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are 11.533 billion, 13.758 billion, and 16.641 billion yuan respectively - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 13, 11, and 9 for 2024-2026 [4][5]
华能国际2024年一季报点评:煤电超预期,业绩开门红

Guotai Junan Securities· 2024-04-24 06:32
股 票 研 究 [Table_industryInfo] 电力/公用事业 [ Table_Main[华ITnaf 能bol]e 国_Ti际tle]( 600011) [评Tab级le_:Inv est] 增持 上次评级: 增持 煤电超预期,业绩开门红 目标价格: 11.34 上次预测: 10.66 公 华能国际 2024年一季报点评 当前价格: 9.31 司 于鸿光(分析师) 孙辉贤(研究助理) 汪玥(研究助理) 2024.04.24 更 021-38031730 021-38038670 021-38031030 [交Ta易bl数e_M据a rket] 新 yuhongguang025906@gtjas sunhuixian026739@gtjas.com wangyue028681@gtjas.com 报 证书编号 .Sc0o8m8 0522020001 S0880122070052 S0880123070143 5 总2 市周 值内 (股 百价 万区 元间 )( 元) 7.1 10 4- 61 ,0 1. 42 99 告 本报告导读: 总股本/流通A股(百万股) 15,698/10,998 流通 B股/ ...
2024一季报点评:业绩超预期,全社会用电量超预期+煤炭下行推荐火电板块

Soochow Securities· 2024-04-24 03:02
证券研究报告·公司点评报告·电力 华能国际(600011) 2024 一季报点评:业绩超预期,全社会用电 2024 年 04月 24日 量超预期+煤炭下行推荐火电板块 证券分析师 袁理 买入(维持) 执业证书:S0600511080001 021-60199782 盈[T 利ab 预le_ 测EP 与S 估] 值 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E yuanl@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 唐亚辉 营业总收入(百万元) 246,725 254,397 265,480 271,375 289,333 执业证书:S0600520070005 同比(%) 20.31 3.11 4.36 2.22 6.62 tangyh@dwzq.com.cn 归母净利润(百万元) (7,387) 8,446 13,083 15,678 17,525 同比(%) 26.17 214.33 54.91 19.83 11.78 股价走势 EPS-最新摊薄(元/股) (0.47) 0.54 0.83 1.00 1.12 华能国际 沪深300 P/E(现价&最新摊薄) (19.78) 17.30 11.17 9 ...
火电业绩亮眼,风电装机提速

SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2024-04-24 01:30
业绩简评 2024年 4月 23日晚间公司披露24年一季报,1Q24 实现营收 653.7 亿元,同比+0.2%;归母净利润 45.96 亿元,同比 +104.3%。业绩表现亮眼,火电度电利润显著提升。 经营分析 煤-电价格联动顺畅,火电合理收益继续上探。公司 1Q24 燃 煤/燃机板块分别实现利润总额28.3亿元(1Q23为-0.7亿元, 本期大幅扭亏)、5.4 亿元(同比+64.3%),对应度电利润总额 分别为0.03 元/KWh、0.08 元/KWh。根据公司经营业绩公告, 1Q24 平均上网结算电价为497.97 元/KWh,同比-3.99%。在电 价下行背景下实现度电利润大幅提升,一方面体现当下火电 龙头公司较为强势的上下游地位;另一方面体现煤电容量电 价机制落地后带来的盈利支撑作用,火电长期合理收益可期。 1Q24 风电新增装机提速。1Q24 公司风电/光伏上网电量分别 人民币(元) 成交金额(百万元) 同比+24.1%/+73.7%,利润总额贡献分别为 24.1/3.7 亿元, 11.00 1,800 分别同比+25.4%/+7%,大风季风电利润增速略高于电量增速。 1,600 10 ...
华能国际电力股份(00902) - 2024 Q1 - 季度业绩

2024-04-23 14:12
Financial Performance - Operating revenue for the quarter was CNY 65,366,884,717, representing a year-on-year increase of 0.15%[3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 4,596,138,134, a significant increase of 104.25% compared to the same period last year[3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was CNY 4,377,496,954, up 117.98% year-on-year[3] - Basic earnings per share increased by 150.00% to CNY 0.25[3] - The company reported a total comprehensive income of RMB 6.14 billion for Q1 2024, compared to RMB 1.82 billion in Q1 2023, indicating a growth of 237.5%[14] - Net profit for Q1 2024 was RMB 5.84 billion, representing a significant increase of 136.6% from RMB 2.46 billion in Q1 2023[13] - The company's operating profit surged to RMB 7.01 billion, up from RMB 3.06 billion in the same period last year, marking a growth of 129.5%[13] - Basic and diluted earnings per share for Q1 2024 were both RMB 0.25, compared to RMB 0.10 in Q1 2023, reflecting a 150% increase[14] Cash Flow and Liquidity - The net cash flow from operating activities reached CNY 12,142,578,592, reflecting a growth of 97.81%[3] - Cash flow from operating activities generated RMB 12.14 billion, a substantial increase of 97.5% from RMB 6.14 billion in Q1 2023[15] - Cash and cash equivalents rose to CNY 20.78 billion from CNY 16.85 billion, marking an increase of approximately 23.0%[9] - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of Q1 2024 totaled RMB 20.47 billion, an increase from RMB 18.02 billion at the end of Q1 2023[16] - Financing activities generated a net cash inflow of RMB 1.44 billion, down from RMB 4.80 billion in Q1 2023[16] - Investment activities resulted in a net cash outflow of RMB 9.28 billion, slightly higher than the outflow of RMB 9.25 billion in Q1 2023[15] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets at the end of the period were CNY 545,424,371,101, a slight increase of 0.79% from the end of the previous year[3] - Total current assets increased to CNY 93.69 billion from CNY 90.74 billion, reflecting a growth of approximately 3.2%[9] - Total liabilities decreased slightly to CNY 368.58 billion from CNY 369.80 billion, a reduction of about 0.3%[11] - Total assets increased to CNY 545.42 billion from CNY 541.16 billion, representing a growth of approximately 0.8%[10] - The company reported a total equity of CNY 176.84 billion, up from CNY 171.36 billion, indicating an increase of about 3.9%[12] Shareholder Information - The total number of shareholders at the end of the reporting period was 64,299[7] - The top ten shareholders collectively hold 78.09% of the total shares, with Huaneng International Power Development Company holding the largest share at 32.28%[8] Operational Highlights - Profit from coal-fired power generation was CNY 28.25 billion, while profit from gas-fired power generation increased by 64.34% to CNY 5.36 billion[6] - The company reported a 97.81% increase in net cash flow from operating activities, attributed to reduced fuel procurement costs and increased electricity sales revenue[6] - The company plans to continue expanding its renewable energy projects, particularly in wind and solar power, which showed profit increases of 25.41% and 6.99% respectively[6] - The company recorded a significant increase in investment income, rising to RMB 381.22 million in Q1 2024 from RMB 231.67 million in Q1 2023[13]