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电力行业 2026 年度投资策略:新征程,还是老轮回?
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-17 11:31
报告要点 [Table_Summary] 展望来看,随着容量电价提升及国资委考核的深化,未来火电的叙事有望转向盈利稳定与分红 提升的红利逻辑;短期维度来看,在煤价上行周期煤电一体化标的的可比优势或更加突出。对 绿电而言,尽管政策层面何时能够对基本面产生实际改善仍存在不确定性,但估值低且兼具一 定股息补偿、风电占比高、区域电价确定性强的主体依然值得左侧布局。当前,长江电力的股 息率达到历史高位,成长性更强的国投电力与川投能源的估值也达到相对低位,重视水电绝对 收益价值。核电在"十五五"期间将迎来可观的产能增长,并将进一步支撑分红能力,虽然市 场电价一定程度扰动核电业绩预期,但长期电价中枢预期依然坚实。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 张韦华 司旗 宋尚骞 SAC:S0490517080003 SAC:S0490520120001 SAC:S0490520110001 SFC:BQT627 刘亚辉 张子淳 SAC:S0490523080003 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 行业研究丨深度报告丨公用事业 [Table_Title] 新征程,还是老轮回?——电力行业 ...
公用事业2026年度策略报告:电改深化,变中求稳-20251216
CMS· 2025-12-16 05:34
证券研究报告 | 行业策略报告 2025 年 12 月 16 日 电改深化,变中求稳 公用事业 2026 年度策略报告 周期/环保及公用事业 煤价企稳回升,叠加容量电价上涨,26 年整体电价降幅预计可控;区域来水 分化,短期内建议关注水电装机增长带来的弹性;136 号文陆续落地,预计新 能源短期电价和消纳承压。燃气板块,多个 LNG 气田陆续投产,全球 LNG 供 给将趋于宽松,价格中枢有望下移,从而提振需求。 推荐(维持) 行业规模 1 、 《 环 保 公 用 事 业 行 业 周 报 (20251207):机制电价竞价结果加 速落地,"41+9"打造氢能新动力》 2025-12-09 2 、 《 环 保 公 用 事 业 行 业 周 报 (20251130):输配电价新规发布, 鼓励跨省跨区工程探索容量电价》 2025-12-01 3、《电力行业点评报告:点碳成金, "超碳一号"年内冲刺满功率发电》 2025-12-01 宋盈盈 S1090520080001 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 ❑ 2025 年以来,环保及公用事业板块均有上涨。截止 12 月 13 日,公用事业 板块累计涨幅 3.61%,在 31 个申万 ...
申万公用环保周报(25/12/08~25/12/12):云南提高煤电容量电价,东北亚LNG创一年半新低-20251215
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-12-15 09:08
Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the power sector, particularly following the increase in coal power capacity pricing in Yunnan, which is expected to stabilize revenue for coal power companies [6][8]. Core Insights - Yunnan has announced an increase in the coal power capacity price recovery of fixed costs to 100%, effective from 2026, which will enhance the stability of coal power revenues and support the integration of renewable energy sources [6][7]. - The report highlights a significant drop in natural gas prices in the U.S. and Northeast Asia, with the latter reaching a 20-month low, indicating a favorable environment for gas companies [10][24]. - The investment analysis suggests a diversified revenue model for coal power companies, transitioning from reliance on electricity sales to a combination of electricity, capacity, and ancillary service revenues [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Power Sector - Yunnan's new policy sets the coal power capacity price at 330 RMB per kilowatt per year, allowing full recovery of fixed costs, which is expected to improve the profitability of coal power plants [6][7]. - The province's total installed power capacity exceeds 168 million kilowatts, with over 90% being green energy, necessitating coal power for peak load support [7]. - The report recommends several companies, including Guodian Power and Inner Mongolia Huadian, for their integrated coal power operations [8]. 2. Natural Gas Sector - U.S. Henry Hub spot prices fell to $4.07/mmBtu, a decrease of 21.56% week-on-week, while Northeast Asia LNG prices dropped to $10/mmBtu, down 6.19% [10][11]. - The report notes that strong supply and high inventory levels in Northeast Asia are contributing to the price decline, with expectations of further price sensitivity from buyers as prices approach $10/mmBtu [24][26]. - Investment recommendations include companies like Kunlun Energy and New Hope Energy, which are expected to benefit from lower costs and improved margins [31][32]. 3. Market Performance - The report indicates that the power and equipment sectors outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index during the review period, while the gas and environmental sectors lagged [34]. - It provides a detailed valuation table for key utility companies, highlighting their earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios [46]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - Recent government policies emphasize the development of a clean, low-carbon energy system, with a target of 25% non-fossil energy consumption by 2030 [40][41]. - The report discusses the ongoing transition in the energy sector towards market-driven growth, particularly in new energy storage solutions [41].
申万公用环保周报:云南提高煤电容量电价,东北亚LNG创一年半新低-20251215
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-12-15 07:29
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the power and gas sectors, including China Power Investment Corporation, Inner Mongolia Huadian, and China Resources Power [48]. Core Insights - Yunnan Province has increased the coal power capacity price recovery of fixed costs to 100%, which is expected to stabilize revenue for coal power companies and enhance their role in supporting renewable energy integration [7][8]. - The report highlights a significant drop in natural gas prices, with Northeast Asia LNG prices reaching a 20-month low, driven by strong supply and mild weather conditions [12][26]. - The investment analysis suggests a diversified revenue model for coal power companies, transitioning from reliance on electricity sales to a combination of electricity revenue, capacity income, and ancillary service income [9]. Summary by Sections 1. Power: Yunnan Increases Coal Power Capacity Price - Yunnan has announced a new mechanism for coal power capacity pricing, allowing for full recovery of fixed costs starting in 2026, set at 330 RMB per kilowatt per year [7][8]. - The province's total installed power capacity exceeds 168 million kilowatts, with over 90% from green energy sources, necessitating coal power for peak load support [8]. 2. Gas: Global Gas Price Trends - As of December 12, the Henry Hub spot price in the U.S. was $4.07/mmBtu, down 21.56% week-on-week, while Northeast Asia LNG prices fell to $10/mmBtu, a decrease of 6.19% [12][13]. - The report notes that the overall supply of natural gas remains robust, contributing to lower prices in Northeast Asia [26][28]. 3. Weekly Market Review - The power and power equipment sectors outperformed the CSI 300 index, while the public utility, gas, and environmental protection sectors lagged behind [36]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - Recent government meetings and policy announcements emphasize the importance of a clean, low-carbon energy system and the development of a new energy system by 2030 [40][43]. - The report includes updates on major companies, such as China Resources Power and Longyuan Power, highlighting their financial activities and operational performance [44][46].
中国招标投标协会《电线电缆采购技术评审指南 第1部分:光伏发电系统用直流电缆》标准首发仪式在京隆重举行
Zhong Guo Zhi Liang Xin Wen Wang· 2025-12-15 06:59
中招协《电线电缆采购技术评审指南》(T/CTBA 007)是《电线电缆采购技术规范》(T/CTBA 006) 的配套标准,是针对企业电线电缆采购"技术评审指标"设置不合理、不科学,脱离项目与产品的具体特 点和实际需要,评审专家因对产品工艺、主要原材料和制造装备等专业知识了解不足,技术评审大多流 于形式等招标采购管理痛点问题,组织产业链骨干企业共同编制和共享成果的团体标准,旨在深入贯彻 落实《国家标准化发展纲要》《国务院办公厅关于创新完善体制机制推动招标投标市场规范健康发展的 意见》等文件精神,共享采购信息知识经验,引导企业采购标准化建设、集约化管理和数字化转型,切 实推动全国统一大市场和高标准市场体系建设,促进现代绿色低碳智慧供应链、产业链高质量发展。 《光伏电缆采购技术评审指南》是《电线电缆采购技术评审指南》的第1部分,由中国华能集团华能能 源交通产业控股有限公司(中国华能集团有限公司物资供应中心)北京分公司牵头,90余家参编单位的 110余位编委委员,历时近2年倾力打造而成。标准对产品技术资格条件、产品功效性能、供应商响应项 目标的生产供应服务保障方案,以及供应商制造能力、试验检测能力、原辅材料质量管控与 ...
公用事业行业周报(20251214):26年双碳定调,关注绿电消纳及固废板块-20251214
EBSCN· 2025-12-14 10:10
2025 年 12 月 14 日 ——公用事业行业周报(20251214) 要点 本周行情回顾:本周 SW 公用事业一级板块下跌 0.09%,在 31 个 SW 一级板 块中排名第 11;沪深 300 下跌 0.08%,上证综指下跌 0.34%,深证成指上涨 0.84%,创业板指上涨 2.74%。细分子板块中,火电上涨 0.22%,水电下跌 0.26%,光伏发电上涨 1.27%,风力发电上涨 0.11%,电能综合服务上涨 0.48%,燃气下跌 0.86%。本周公用事业涨幅前五的个股分别为嘉泽新能 (+9.71%)、银星能源(+8.58%)、中泰股份(+7.79%)、西昌电力(+5.38%)、 郴电国际(+4.14%);周跌幅前五的个股分别为蓝天燃气(-15.21%)、德 龙汇能(-14.02%)、惠天热电(-12.62%)、华通热力(-11.33%)、联美 控股(-10.05%)。 本周数据更新:本周动力煤价格加速下跌。其中,秦皇岛港 5500 大卡动力煤 (中国北方,平仓价)周环比下跌 39 元/吨;防城港 5500 大卡动力煤(印度 尼西亚,场地价)本周周环比下跌 10 元/吨;广州港 5500 大卡动力 ...
国家能源集团董事长邹磊与山西省省长卢东亮举行工作会谈
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2025-12-10 15:03
人民财讯12月10日电,12月9日,国家能源集团党组书记、董事长邹磊在集团总部会见了山西省委副书 记、省长卢东亮一行,双方围绕深化战略合作、共同推动能源绿色低碳转型和高质量发展进行深入交 流。卢东亮指出,山西是国家重要综合能源基地,国家能源集团是能源行业的"国家队"和领军企业,双 方合作空间巨大。希望国家能源集团继续扎根山西、深耕山西,围绕提供综合能源系统解决方案、打 造"绿色能源+"新业态新模式、发展现代煤化工、深化能源科技创新、构建新型电力系统等方面加大投 资和布局力度,推动更多合作项目落地见效。 ...
2×100万千瓦煤电项目前期工程咨询招标
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-08 12:25
近日,华能集团发布华能山东分公司德州电厂五期煤电项目前期工程咨询服务项目招标公告。本华能山东分公司德州 电厂五期煤电项目前期工程咨询服务项目已由项目审批机关批准,项目资金为企业自筹,招标人为华能国际电力股份有 限公司德州电厂。本项目已具备招标条件,现进行公开招标。 项目建设地点为山东省,德州市,德城区东风西路1868号。规模为在德州电厂原厂区1-4号机组旧址,拟新建2台100万千 瓦热电联产煤电项目,此次是项目前期包括可行性研究报告编制等8个前期工程咨询专题报告编制服务。标段划分为华 能山东分公司德州电厂五期煤电项目前期工程咨询服务项目标段包1。服务地点位于山东省,德州市,德城区东风西路 1868号。 项目建设地点为山东省,德州市,德城区东风西路1868号。规模为在德州电厂原厂区1-4号机组旧址,拟新建2台100万千 瓦热电联产煤电项目,此次是项目前期包括可行性研究报告编制等8个前期工程咨询专题报告编制服务。标段划分为华 能山东分公司德州电厂五期煤电项目前期工程咨询服务项目标段包1。服务地点位于山东省,德州市,德城区东风西路 1868号。 服务期: | 序号 | 内容 | 相关要求 | | --- | --- ...
申万公用环保周报(25/11/29~25/12/05):机制电价省间差异大欧亚气价持续下探-20251208
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-12-08 12:00
Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment outlook for various sectors within the energy industry, particularly highlighting opportunities in hydropower, thermal power, nuclear power, green energy, and gas companies [11][13]. Core Insights - The mechanism electricity pricing results across multiple regions are approaching their upper limits, indicating strong demand and government support for renewable energy projects [4][7]. - Natural gas prices in Europe are declining, while U.S. gas prices have reached a new high for 2023, driven by increased heating demand due to cold weather [13][20]. - The report emphasizes the importance of operational efficiency in renewable energy projects, as profitability varies significantly across different regions [10][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity Pricing - Recent mechanism electricity pricing results show that several regions, including Hebei and Ningxia, have prices close to the upper limits, reflecting strong demand and sufficient mechanism electricity indicators [4][8]. - The competitive pricing results indicate a disparity based on local consumption capacity and policy direction, with some provinces achieving significantly lower prices due to weaker demand [9][10]. 2. Natural Gas Market - U.S. Henry Hub spot prices reached $5.19/mmBtu, marking a 12.91% increase week-on-week, while European gas prices, such as the TTF, have seen a decline [13][20]. - The report notes a 1.3% year-on-year decrease in China's natural gas consumption in October, with expectations for growth in the upcoming winter months due to heating demand [30][32]. 3. Investment Recommendations - Hydropower: Favorable conditions for winter and spring generation, with recommendations for companies like Yangtze Power and Guodian Power [11]. - Thermal Power: Companies with diversified income sources are recommended, including Guodian Power and Inner Mongolia Huadian [11]. - Nuclear Power: Continued growth expected with new approvals, suggesting a focus on China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power [11]. - Green Energy: Increased stability in project returns with recommendations for companies like Xintian Green Energy and Longyuan Power [11]. - Gas Companies: Recommendations include Kunlun Energy and New Hope Energy, benefiting from cost reductions and improved profitability [32].
华能首台套高压直挂浸没式储能项目并网投运
中关村储能产业技术联盟· 2025-12-08 10:42
文 | 中关村储能产业技术联盟 12月3日,华能公主岭235MW/470MWh集中式储能项目一期(115MW/230MWh)工程暨华能富民储能电站成 功并网投运,正式投入商业化运营。据悉, 这也是华能首套高压直挂浸没式 储能项目 。 项目位于吉林省公主岭市,总规划规模235MW/470MWh,占地约5.26公顷,总投资4.93亿元,由华能吉林发电 有限公司全资子公司投资建设,并由华能吉林发电有限公司新能源分公司负责运营管理。 项目采用华能清能院自主研发的高压直挂浸没式储能系统,结合非步入式液冷磷酸铁锂技术, 同步配套微网储能 系统与泡沫消防系统, 运行稳定、能效显著。一期共布置5套23MW/46MWh储能单元,通过一台135MVA主变 压器升压至220kV接入电网,系统设计预留二期、三期扩建空间,具备良好的规模弹性与发展潜力。 作为贯彻国家"双碳"目标、服务吉林新型电力系统建设的重点工程,华能吉林新能源公司聚焦电网调峰能力提升 与系统安全稳定,积极探索独立储能参与电力市场交易的新路径。 项目全面投运后,将有效提升长春西部地区对风电、光伏等新能源的消纳能力,依托其黑启动功能,进一步增强 极端天气下、突发情况的电 ...