Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for various sectors including hydropower, green electricity, nuclear power, thermal power, and gas power [4][9][44]. Core Insights - The green certificate market is experiencing a significant increase in both volume and price, with a 210% rise in average trading price in Q3 compared to Q1 [8]. - Global natural gas prices are fluctuating, with the US Henry Hub spot price reaching a near six-month high of $3.57/mmBtu, while European prices are showing mixed trends [11][12]. - The report anticipates a potential increase in gas consumption growth in Q4 2025 due to low base effects and high demand expectations, despite a 1.6% year-on-year decline in September gas consumption [32][33]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity - In September 2025, 229 million green electricity certificates were issued, with 68.86% being tradable [4][8]. - The report highlights the improvement in market mechanisms and the growing demand for renewable energy consumption [8]. 2. Natural Gas - As of October 31, 2025, the US Henry Hub spot price increased by 11.16% week-on-week, while European prices showed a decline [11][12]. - The report notes a 1.6% year-on-year decrease in national gas consumption in September, with expectations for growth in Q4 2025 due to favorable weather conditions [32][33]. 3. Investment Recommendations - Recommendations include hydropower companies such as Guotou Power and Chuanwei Energy, green electricity firms like Xintian Green Energy and Longyuan Power, and gas companies including Kunlun Energy and New Hope Energy [9][44]. - The report emphasizes the potential for improved profitability in the gas sector due to declining costs and rising demand [33][44].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Longyuan Power (916 HK) with a target price of HKD 8.23, based on a valuation of 9 times the projected earnings for 2026 [1][6]. Core Insights - Longyuan Power's net profit for the first three quarters of the year decreased by 19.8% year-on-year to RMB 4.613 billion, primarily due to a high base from the previous year and increased depreciation costs in wind power [1][2]. - The company exceeded its expectations with a subsidy recovery amount of RMB 9.25 billion, an increase of RMB 5.8 billion year-on-year, leading to a 53% rise in operating cash flow to RMB 15.8 billion [1]. - The company aims to maintain its annual new installed capacity target of 5 GW, with a total new installed capacity of 2.27 GW achieved in the first three quarters [1][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first nine months of 2025, revenue increased by 3.7% to RMB 22.221 billion, while net profit fell by 19.8% to RMB 4.613 billion [2]. - Operating expenses rose by 9.7% to RMB 13.960 billion, impacting operating profit, which decreased by 5.2% to RMB 9.089 billion [2]. Operational Data - The total power generation for the first three quarters reached 56.547 billion kWh, with wind and solar generation increasing by 5.3% and 77.9% year-on-year, respectively [1][3]. - The average electricity prices for wind and solar were RMB 0.423 and RMB 0.269 per kWh, reflecting a decline of 4% and 3% year-on-year [1]. Future Outlook - The adjustment of the VAT refund policy for renewable energy is expected to impact profitability, particularly for onshore wind power, starting from November 2025 [1]. - Longyuan Power has initiated internal assessments and project adjustments to mitigate the impact of these policy changes [1].

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities reports that Longyuan Power's profit for the first three quarters of 2025 is 4.6 billion, a year-on-year decline of 20%, indicating a 35% year-on-year drop in third-quarter profit to 1 billion, which is below the bank's forecast of 1.3 billion [1] Financial Performance - The decline in performance is primarily due to a 3% year-on-year decrease in revenue per unit from wind and solar power generation, alongside a 6% year-on-year reduction in equipment utilization hours, despite a 20% year-on-year increase in total installed capacity [1] Market Outlook - The bank believes that the third-quarter results serve as a reminder to the market that the timing of a profit turnaround remains difficult to predict, leading to a reduction in the H-share target price from 6 HKD to 5.9 HKD and a reaffirmation of the "underperform" rating [1] - Expectations indicate that profit pressure will continue to intensify through 2026, resulting in an average downward revision of 15% in profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Longyuan Power (001289)(00916) experienced a decline of over 3%, with a current drop of 2.7% to HKD 7.2, and a trading volume of HKD 140 million [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, Longyuan Power reported operating revenue of RMB 22.221 billion, an increase of 3.70% year-on-year [1] - The net profit attributable to equity holders of the company was RMB 4.613 billion, a decrease of 19.84% year-on-year [1] - Bank of America reported that the third-quarter profit fell by 35% year-on-year to RMB 1 billion, which was below their forecast of RMB 1.3 billion [1] Market Outlook - Bank of America stated that the third-quarter results highlight the uncertainty regarding the timing of the profit turning point, lowering the H-share target price from HKD 6 to HKD 5.9, and reiterating a "underperform" rating for Longyuan Power's A/H shares [1] Fundraising Plans - Longyuan Power announced plans to issue A-shares to specific investors, with a total fundraising amount not exceeding RMB 5 billion, which will be used for projects including a 500,000 kW offshore wind power project in Hainan and a 1 million kW wind power project in the "Ningxiang DC" renewable energy base [1]

Core Viewpoint - Longyuan Power (00916) has experienced a decline of over 3%, with a current price of HKD 7.2 and a trading volume of HKD 1.4 billion, following the release of its financial results for the first three quarters of the year [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, Longyuan Power reported a revenue of RMB 22.221 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.70% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased to RMB 4.613 billion, a year-on-year decline of 19.84% [1] - Bank of America reported that the third-quarter profit fell by 35% year-on-year to RMB 1 billion, which was below their forecast of RMB 1.3 billion [1] Market Reaction - The third-quarter performance has raised concerns in the market regarding the timing of the profit turnaround, leading Bank of America to lower its target price for H-shares from HKD 6 to HKD 5.9 and reiterate a "underperform" rating for both A and H shares of Longyuan Power [1] Fundraising Plans - Longyuan Power announced plans to issue A-shares to specific investors, with a total fundraising amount not exceeding RMB 5 billion. The net proceeds, after deducting issuance costs, will be invested in the following projects: a 500,000 kW offshore wind power project in Hainan Dongfang and a 1 million kW wind power project supporting the "Ningxiang DC" new energy base in Shapotou [1]

Core Viewpoint - Longyuan Power's stock price has experienced fluctuations, with a recent decline of 2.02% and a year-to-date increase of 9.42% [1] Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Longyuan Power reported operating revenue of 22.221 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.67%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.393 billion yuan, down 19.76% [3] - Cumulative cash dividends since the A-share listing amount to 5.978 billion yuan, with 4.746 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [4] Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased by 16.42% to 34,200, with an average of 0 circulating shares per person [3] - The top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited and various ETFs, with some shareholders reducing their holdings [4] Market Activity - Longyuan Power's stock has seen a trading volume of 27.304 million yuan with a turnover rate of 0.03% [1] - The stock has appeared on the "龙虎榜" (a list of stocks with significant trading activity) once this year, with the last occurrence on April 8 [1]

Core Insights - The overall performance of the dividend style sector has been poor from early 2025 to October 28, 2025, while electricity demand has maintained steady growth, with a total electricity consumption of 7.77 trillion kilowatt-hours, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [2][3] - During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, a "wide electricity volume, tight electricity supply" pattern is expected, with comprehensive electricity prices likely to stabilize [2][3] Electricity Sector - Coal prices have bottomed out and are expected to stabilize electricity prices; from the end of 2023 to mid-2025, coal prices have been declining, but began to rebound in July 2025, with the average clearing price in Jiangsu's electricity market reaching 395.60 yuan per megawatt-hour, an increase of 82.80 yuan per megawatt-hour month-on-month [3] - Hydropower remains stable with long-term investment value in a low-interest-rate environment; the net interest margin for hydropower has expanded by 69 basis points compared to the previous year [3] - Nuclear power's marketization ratio is gradually increasing, with a marketable electricity volume cap of 31.2 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026, a 14.3% increase from 2025; fluctuations in natural uranium prices have a minimal impact on operators [3] - Green electricity policies have seen uncertainty resolved, with market reforms entering a deeper phase; the wind power tax subsidy has decreased, indicating a policy bottom [4] Power Grid Equipment - The State Grid's investment in transmission and transformation equipment has seen significant growth, with a cumulative bidding amount of 68.188 billion yuan from January to September 2025, a year-on-year increase of 22.9% [6] - The export of primary equipment has also maintained high growth, with liquid medium transformers, high-voltage switches, and energy meters showing significant year-on-year increases in export amounts [6] Investment Opportunities - Beneficial stocks include: - Thermal Power: Huaneng International, Huadian International, China Resources Power, Datang Power, and others [7] - Hydropower: Yangtze Power, Huaneng Hydropower, and others [7] - Nuclear Power: China National Nuclear Power, China General Nuclear Power, and others [7] - Green Power: Longyuan Power, China Power, and others [7] - Power Grid Equipment: Pinggao Electric, XJ Electric, and others [7]

Core Viewpoint - Longyuan Power's Q3 revenue decreased by 14% year-on-year to 6.564 billion yuan, while net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 38% year-on-year to 1.018 billion yuan, primarily due to a decline in wind power utilization hours [1] Financial Performance - Q3 revenue: 6.564 billion yuan (yoy -14%, qoq -13%) [1] - Q3 net profit: 1.018 billion yuan (yoy -38%, qoq -31%) [1] - Revenue for Q1-Q3 2025: 22.221 billion yuan (yoy -17%) [1] - Net profit for Q1-Q3 2025: 4.393 billion yuan (yoy -21%) [1] - Non-recurring net profit for Q1-Q3 2025: 4.292 billion yuan (yoy -16%) [1] Installed Capacity and Generation - New installed capacity for renewable energy: 2.27 GW from January to September, totaling 43.42 GW by the end of September [1] - Wind power installed capacity: increased by 1.13 GW to 31.54 GW [1] - Solar power installed capacity: increased by 1.17 GW to 11.87 GW [1] - Total generation from January to September: 56.542 billion kWh (yoy -0.5%) [1] - Wind power generation: 46.188 billion kWh (yoy +5.3%) [1] - Solar power generation: 10.354 billion kWh (yoy +78%) [1] - Average wind power utilization hours: 1,511 hours (yoy -95 hours) [1] Revenue Breakdown - Wind power revenue: 19.144 billion yuan (yoy -1.8%) [2] - Solar power revenue: 2.806 billion yuan (yoy +64.8%) [2] - Wind power revenue decline attributed to increased proportion of parity projects and expanded market transactions leading to lower average on-grid electricity prices [2] - Solar power revenue growth driven by rapid expansion of installed capacity [2] Cash Flow and Financing - Accounts receivable financing: 42.694 billion yuan, down 6.533 billion yuan from June [2] - Operating cash flow for January to September: 15.784 billion yuan (yoy +53%) [2] - Company plans to raise up to 5 billion yuan through A-share refinancing to invest in wind power projects [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Downward revision of net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 by 1.8%/8.7%/8.2% to 6.378 billion yuan, 6.732 billion yuan, and 7.780 billion yuan respectively [2] - Target price for A-shares set at 19.44 yuan, up from 18.72 yuan, based on a 24x PE for 2026 [2] - Target price for H-shares set at 7.99 HKD, up from 7.63 HKD, based on a 9x PE for 2026 [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the public utility sector, including China Resources Power, Guodian Power, and Inner Mongolia Huadian [28]. Core Insights - The public utility sector is crucial for achieving national "dual carbon" goals, with a strong emphasis on environmental and social issues in the ESG evaluation framework [5][4]. - The ESG evaluation system for public utilities includes four categories of positive indicators and one category of negative indicators, focusing on objective assessment metrics [8][23]. - Recent policies from various government departments emphasize the need for green transformation, pollution prevention, and social welfare in the public utility sector [5][4]. Summary by Sections 1. ESG Policy in Public Utilities - The public utility sector is a major contributor to energy consumption and carbon emissions, making its green transformation essential for national goals [5]. - Key policies include the "14th Five-Year" energy conservation and emission reduction plan, which outlines specific requirements for green transformation and public service stability [5][4]. 2. ESG Evaluation System Construction - The ESG evaluation system consists of four positive categories: General Indicators, Environmental Indicators, Social Indicators, and Governance Indicators, with a total of 18 primary indicators and 35 secondary indicators [8][23]. - The negative category focuses on violations and penalties, with specific metrics for environmental, social, and governance aspects [23]. 3. General Indicators - General indicators assess the authenticity and standardization of ESG reports, including the basis for report preparation, third-party verification, and the publication of ESG-specific reports [10][9]. 4. Environmental Indicators - Environmental indicators are based on energy conservation, low carbon, and circular economy principles, with a total of four primary indicators focusing on emissions management, ecological compliance, resource utilization, and climate strategy [11][12]. 5. Social Indicators - Social indicators highlight the public utility sector's role in community development and social stability, with six primary indicators covering community contributions, employee development, innovation, supply chain responsibility, product safety, and core operational responsibilities [15][16][17]. 6. Governance Indicators - Governance indicators aim to enhance corporate governance and decision-making, with five primary indicators focusing on party leadership, industry reform, compliance risk management, governance structure, and information transparency [19][20][21]. 7. Negative Indicators - The negative indicators focus on compliance issues, with penalties for violations in environmental, social, and governance areas, deducting points for each violation [23][25].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the public utility sector's central enterprises with a focus on the ESG evaluation system [1]. Core Insights - The establishment of the ESG evaluation system for public utilities is based on a balanced emphasis on environmental and social issues, crucial for achieving national carbon neutrality goals [3][9]. - The evaluation system consists of four categories of positive indicators and one category of negative indicators, with a total of 18 primary indicators and 35 secondary indicators [12][28]. - Key policies guiding the sector include promoting renewable energy, enhancing energy efficiency, and ensuring equitable public services [9][11]. Summary by Sections 1. ESG Policy: Balancing Environmental and Social Issues - The public utility sector is a major contributor to energy consumption and carbon emissions, making its green transition vital for national carbon goals [3][9]. - Recent policies emphasize the development of clean energy and pollution control, with specific directives from various government bodies [9][11]. 2. Constructing the ESG Evaluation System: Multi-Dimensional Assessment - The ESG evaluation system is structured with four positive categories: General Indicators, Environmental Indicators, Social Indicators, and Governance Indicators, along with one negative category for violations [12][28]. - Each category has specific indicators designed to objectively assess the performance of enterprises in the public utility sector [12][28]. 3. General Indicators - General indicators assess the authenticity and standardization of ESG reports, including the basis for report preparation, third-party verification, and the publication of ESG-specific reports [12][14]. 4. Environmental Indicators - Environmental indicators focus on energy efficiency and circular economy principles, with metrics for emissions management, ecological compliance, resource utilization, and climate strategy [15][17]. 5. Social Indicators - Social indicators highlight the sector's role in public service, with metrics for community contributions, employee development, innovation, supply chain responsibility, and customer rights [19][21]. 6. Governance Indicators - Governance indicators aim to enhance corporate governance standards, focusing on party leadership, industry reform, compliance risk management, governance structure, and information transparency [23][26]. 7. Negative Indicators - The negative category includes penalties for violations, with specific metrics for environmental, social, and governance infractions, where each violation results in a deduction of points [28][31]. 8. Valuation of Key Companies - The report includes a valuation table for key companies in the public utility sector, indicating ratings and projected earnings per share (EPS) for the years 2025 to 2027 [34].