Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Strong Buy" rating for Xintian Green Energy (00956.HK) with a target price of HKD 6.2, representing a potential upside of approximately 48% from the current price of HKD 4.2 [2][11]. Core Views - The report emphasizes the company's first-mover advantage in the offshore wind sector in Hebei and its potential for growth amid the rising marine economy. It highlights the company's high dividend yield and the attractiveness of its stock in the Hong Kong market [5][6][10]. Financial Performance Summary - **2024A Financials**: Total revenue is projected at HKD 21,372 million, with a year-on-year growth of 5.38%. Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be HKD 1,661 million, reflecting a decline of 22.90% [1]. - **2025E Financials**: Revenue is forecasted to increase to HKD 25,564 million, a growth of 19.61%, with net profit rising to HKD 2,425 million, a growth of 46.01% [1]. - **2026E Financials**: Expected revenue of HKD 30,621 million, with a growth of 19.78%, and net profit of HKD 3,073 million, a growth of 26.76% [1]. - **2027E Financials**: Revenue projected at HKD 39,931 million, with a significant growth of 30.40%, and net profit of HKD 3,481 million, a growth of 13.26% [1]. Short-term Outlook - The company faced performance pressure in 2024 due to unfavorable weather conditions and asset impairments. However, the stock option incentive plan is expected to drive optimism for 2025, with a net profit target of approximately HKD 2.8 billion [7][47]. Long-term Growth Potential - The company holds a significant first-mover advantage in offshore wind projects in Hebei, having secured 1 million kW of the 1.8 million kW planned for the province. The marine economy's growth is anticipated to benefit the company significantly [8][59]. - The company has a robust project reserve, including approximately 3 GW of gas-fired power and 1 GW of offshore wind projects under construction, which supports long-term growth [9][10]. Dividend Yield - The report projects a dividend payout ratio of approximately 52.81% for 2024, with a potential dividend yield reaching nearly 9% under optimistic scenarios, making it attractive for investors [10][30].

Core Viewpoint - The company focuses on clean energy, particularly natural gas sales and wind power generation, with significant installed capacity and a diverse project portfolio across multiple regions in China [1][2]. Group 1: Wind Power - As of the end of 2024, the company has a controlling installed capacity of 6.5874 million kW and an equity capacity of 6.1792 million kW, indicating substantial scale [1]. - The company benefits from favorable market conditions in Hebei, with a projected wind power generation volume share of 71.43% in 2024, and a stable average on-grid electricity price of 0.43 yuan/kWh in Q1 2025 [1][2]. - The company is expanding its offshore wind power projects, with 964,400 kW under construction and 4,309,900 kW of approved but unstarted projects, including significant projects in Qinhuangdao [2]. Group 2: Natural Gas - The natural gas segment faces short-term pressure, with total gas transmission/sales expected to reach 5.888 billion cubic meters in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15.13%, but with a notable decline in Q4 [2][3]. - The LNG terminal project is progressing well, with the first phase completed and the second phase expected to enhance capacity significantly, aiming for a total unloading capacity of 10 million tons/year [3]. - The natural gas segment's revenue is projected at 15.004 billion yuan in 2024, with a gross profit of 528 million yuan, reflecting a significant decline in profitability [2][3]. Group 3: Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 22.407 billion yuan, 24.034 billion yuan, and 26.960 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.84%, 7.26%, and 12.17% respectively [3]. - Expected net profits for the same period are 2.549 billion yuan, 2.516 billion yuan, and 2.990 billion yuan, with significant growth in 2025 followed by a slight decline in 2026 [3]. - The company’s target market values for the natural gas and wind power segments are estimated at 7.030 billion HKD and 15.946 billion HKD, respectively, leading to a combined target price of 5.46 HKD per share [3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 5.46 HKD per share, based on a comprehensive valuation of its business segments [5][74]. Core Views - The company operates as a clean energy platform in Hebei, focusing on natural gas sales and wind power generation, with significant installed capacity and a diverse project portfolio across multiple provinces [12][21]. - The company's performance is expected to recover in 2025, with a projected net profit of 25.49 billion HKD, reflecting a substantial increase of 52.40% compared to the previous year [73]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company is a leading clean energy developer in North China, established in 2010, focusing on integrating natural gas and renewable energy assets [12][18]. 2. Wind Power - The company has a significant installed wind power capacity of 6.5874 million kW, with a focus on projects in Hebei and surrounding regions [21][48]. - The average on-grid electricity price for Q1 2025 is 0.43 CNY per kWh, maintaining stability compared to the previous year [50]. - The company is actively developing offshore wind projects, with a total of 2 million kW capacity under approval [55]. 3. Natural Gas - The total gas transmission and sales volume for 2024 is projected to be 5.888 billion cubic meters, showing a year-on-year increase of 15.13% [59]. - The LNG terminal project is expected to enhance revenue, with the first phase already operational and the second phase progressing well [63][64]. - The company completed LNG sales of approximately 1.123 billion cubic meters in 2024, indicating significant growth potential [64]. 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 22.407 billion, 24.034 billion, and 26.960 billion HKD from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 2.549 billion, 2.516 billion, and 2.990 billion HKD [73]. - The target market values for the natural gas and wind power segments are estimated at 7.030 billion HKD and 15.946 billion HKD, respectively, leading to a combined market value of 22.976 billion HKD [74].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 5.46 HKD per share, based on a comprehensive valuation of its natural gas and wind power segments [5][74]. Core Insights - The company operates as a clean energy platform in Hebei, focusing on natural gas sales and wind power generation, with significant installed capacity and a diverse project portfolio across multiple provinces [12][21]. - The company's wind power segment is expected to benefit from favorable market conditions and a strong project pipeline, particularly in offshore wind projects [2][52]. - The natural gas segment faces short-term challenges but has potential for growth with the upcoming commissioning of the second phase of the LNG terminal [3][63]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company is a leading clean energy developer in North China, established in 2010, focusing on integrating natural gas and renewable energy assets [12][18]. 2. Wind Power - The company has a substantial wind power capacity of 6.5874 million kW, with a focus on projects in Hebei and a strong market position due to favorable trading policies [2][21]. - The average on-grid electricity price for Q1 2025 is 0.43 CNY/kWh, maintaining stability compared to the previous year, with a market transaction volume ratio of 44.71% [50][48]. - The company has a robust project pipeline, including 430.99 million kW of approved but unconstructed projects, with a significant focus on offshore wind development [52][55]. 3. Natural Gas - The total gas transmission and sales volume for 2024 is projected at 5.888 billion cubic meters, reflecting a 15.13% year-on-year increase, although Q4 2024 shows a decline of 24.43% [3][59]. - The LNG terminal project is progressing, with the first phase operational and the second phase expected to enhance capacity significantly, targeting a total unloading capacity of 10 million tons per year [63][64]. - The natural gas segment's revenue for 2024 is estimated at 15.004 billion CNY, with a gross profit margin of 3.52%, indicating pressure on profitability [3][59]. 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 22.407 billion CNY, 24.034 billion CNY, and 26.960 billion CNY for 2025-2027, with corresponding net profits of 2.549 billion CNY, 2.516 billion CNY, and 2.990 billion CNY [73][74]. - The target market values for the natural gas and wind power segments are estimated at 7.030 billion HKD and 15.946 billion HKD, respectively, leading to a combined market value of 22.976 billion HKD [74][76].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electricity sector [1]. Core Viewpoints - In April, the national electricity consumption increased by 4.7%, with a cumulative growth of 3.1% from January to April [8][14]. - The electricity demand from the first and third industries shows resilience, while the second industry experiences weakness [14]. - The supply side saw a 0.9% year-on-year increase in electricity generation in April, with significant growth in renewable energy sources [30][33]. Summary by Sections Demand Side - From January to April, the total electricity consumption reached 31,566 billion kWh, with April alone accounting for 7,721 billion kWh [8]. - The first industry saw a 10.0% increase in electricity consumption, the second industry grew by 2.3%, and the third industry increased by 6.0% [14][13]. - In April, the first, second, and third industries' electricity consumption growth rates were 13.8%, 3.0%, and 9.0%, respectively, while residential electricity consumption grew by 7.0% [14]. Supply Side - In April, the total electricity generation was 7,111 billion kWh, marking a 0.9% year-on-year increase [30]. - The growth rates for different energy sources in April were as follows: wind power increased by 12.7%, solar power by 16.7%, nuclear power by 12.4%, while hydropower decreased by 6.5% and thermal power fell by 2.3% [33]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests increasing allocation to the electricity sector due to favorable fundamentals and market catalysts as summer approaches [53]. - For thermal power, the report highlights the potential for improved profitability due to falling coal prices, recommending companies like Huadian International and Huaneng International [55]. - In the green energy sector, the report recommends focusing on wind power operators and undervalued green energy stocks, such as Xintian Green Energy and Longyuan Power [55]. - For hydropower and nuclear power, the report suggests monitoring companies like China National Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power [55].

Core Insights - The top three companies with the highest short positions are WuXi AppTec (02359), Vanke Enterprises (02202), and Ganfeng Lithium (01772) with short ratios of 16.40%, 14.71%, and 13.17% respectively [1][2] - The company with the largest increase in short positions is Vanke Enterprises (02202), which saw an increase of 1.37% from the previous report [1][2] - Ganfeng Lithium (01772) experienced the largest decrease in short positions, with a reduction of 0.88% [1][3] Short Position Summary - **Top 3 Companies by Short Ratio** - WuXi AppTec (02359): 6,349.45 million shares, 16.40% [2] - Vanke Enterprises (02202): 325 million shares, 14.71% [2] - Ganfeng Lithium (01772): 5,313.62 million shares, 13.17% [2] - **Companies with Largest Increase in Short Positions** - Vanke Enterprises (02202): Increased from 13.34% to 14.71% [2] - COSCO Shipping Holdings (01919): Increased from 12.27% to 13.14% [2] - Yao Cai Securities (01428): Increased from 1.28% to 2.09% [2] - **Companies with Largest Decrease in Short Positions** - Ganfeng Lithium (01772): Decreased from 14.05% to 13.17% [3] - Horizon Robotics-W (09660): Decreased from 1.87% to 1.02% [3] - Hisense Home Appliances (00921): Decreased from 10.94% to 10.14% [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the utility sector is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The new regulations for public funds are expected to lead to an increased allocation towards the utility sector, which is anticipated to benefit from a shift in investment strategies focusing on the "risk-return ratio" [6][4] - The utility sector, particularly hydropower, is projected to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the new policies, as they are characterized by low covariance with the market, leading to potential valuation increases [6][4] - Historical data shows that major hydropower companies have consistently ranked in the top percentiles for risk-return ratios, indicating strong performance relative to market volatility [6][7] Summary by Sections Sector Performance - The report highlights the underallocation of public funds in the utility and environmental sectors compared to their index weights, suggesting a significant opportunity for investment [6][7] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends prioritizing investments in resilient hydropower companies and undervalued thermal power companies that benefit from declining coal prices [6] - Specific stock recommendations include: 1. Hydropower: Guotou Power, Changjiang Power, Chuanwei Energy 2. Wind Power: Longyuan Power (H), Xintian Green Energy, Datang Renewable, CGN New Energy 3. Thermal Power: Waneng Power, Shanghai Electric, China Resources Power, Huadian International, Sheneng Co [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the power and natural gas sectors, indicating a favorable investment environment for renewable energy and gas companies [2][10]. Core Insights - The Shandong provincial government has introduced its first local guidelines for the marketization of renewable energy pricing, which is expected to stabilize returns for existing projects and provide a model for other provinces [5][7]. - Global natural gas prices have seen a slight rebound due to tightening supply and increased demand for LNG exports, with specific price movements noted in various regions [10][19]. - The report highlights the potential for LNG import prices to decrease further in the second half of 2025, benefiting downstream gas companies [11][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Power Sector: Shandong's New Energy Market Guidelines - Shandong's new energy pricing reform outlines that existing projects will participate in market pricing at a rate of 0.3949 yuan per kWh, aligning with the provincial coal benchmark price [5][6]. - The guidelines emphasize strong connectivity with existing policies, ensuring stability for existing projects while introducing competitive elements for new projects [6][7]. - The implementation of these guidelines is expected to serve as a model for other provinces, enhancing the operational efficiency and market strategies of renewable energy companies [7][8]. 2. Natural Gas: Global Demand and Price Rebound - As of May 9, 2025, the Henry Hub spot price in the U.S. was $3.22/mmBtu, reflecting a weekly increase of 3.84%, while European prices also saw a rise due to supply constraints and seasonal demand [10][19]. - The report notes that the overall LNG import cost in China has remained below 4000 yuan per ton, with a significant decrease of 18.4% from the year's peak [11][29]. - The anticipated decline in international oil prices is expected to further lower LNG import prices in China, benefiting city gas companies [11][29]. 3. Weekly Market Review - The public utilities, environmental protection, power equipment, and gas sectors outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index during the review period [35]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - Recent developments include the issuance of competitive configuration announcements for renewable energy projects in various provinces, indicating ongoing investment and growth in the sector [44][46]. - The report also highlights significant corporate announcements, including financing and profit distribution plans from key players in the energy sector, reflecting a proactive approach to capital management and shareholder returns [48][49].

Major Events - Jin'an Industrial (02292) received a privatization offer from its controlling shareholder at a premium of approximately 30%, with resumption of trading on May 12 [1] - Jingtai Holdings (02228) plans to acquire 90% of Shanghai Siwei Medical for 250 million yuan, aiming to create an AI-enabled remote electrocardiogram diagnosis platform [1] - China Investment and Financing (01226) is in contact with MCHKI to explore several potential corporate activities following unusual stock price movements [1] - Qiu Tai Technology (01478) reported camera module sales of 33.229 million units in April, an increase of 8.4% month-on-month but a decrease of 20.1% year-on-year [1] - Stone Pharmaceutical Group (01093) received approval for clinical trials of SYH2046 in the United States [1] - Fosun Pharma (02196) subsidiary Junji Health obtained FDA approval for drug clinical trials [1] - Rongchang Bio (09995) received approval for the marketing of Aidiqi® for treating HER2-positive advanced breast cancer with liver metastasis in China [1] - Livzon Pharmaceutical (01513) received approval for the marketing of injectable aripiprazole microspheres [1] - GAC Group (02238) reported April automobile production of 108,600 units, a year-on-year decline of 25.74% [2] - China Overseas Development (00688) reported contract property sales of approximately 20.164 billion yuan in April, a year-on-year decrease of 7.5% [2] Share Buybacks/Reductions - China Hongqiao (01378) repurchased 19.667 million shares for 273 million HKD on May 9 [1] - AIA Group (01299) repurchased 1.5 million shares for 92.1915 million HKD on May 9 [1] - Cathay Securities (02611) repurchased 1.6906 million A-shares for 29.3356 million yuan on May 9 [1] - Times Electric (03898) repurchased 610,300 shares for 19.7008 million HKD on May 9 [1] - East Asia Bank (00023) acquired 52.8 million shares from Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation [1] - Shandong Molong (00568) saw shareholder Zhimo Holdings reduce its holdings by 28.81 million H-shares [1] Operating Performance - Longyuan Power (00916) achieved a power generation volume of 6.9064 million MWh in April, a year-on-year increase of 4.85% [2] - New天绿色能源 (00956) reported a power generation volume of 1.4778 million MWh in April, a year-on-year increase of 16.91% [2] - Jianye Real Estate (00832) achieved a total property contract sales amount of 2.71 billion yuan in the first four months, a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [2] - China Overseas Hongyang Group (00081) reported a cumulative contract sales amount of 9.556 billion yuan in the first four months, a year-on-year decrease of 14.1% [2] - Times China Holdings (01233) reported a cumulative contract sales amount of approximately 1.81 billion yuan in the first four months, a year-on-year decrease of 29.87% [2] - Agile Property Holdings (01813) reported a pre-sale amount of 509 million yuan in April, a year-on-year decrease of 47.5% [2] - Greenland Hong Kong (00337) reported contract sales of approximately 880 million yuan in the first four months, a year-on-year decrease of 69.3% [2]

输/售气量 证券代码：600956 证券简称：新天绿能 公告编号：2025-025 新天绿色能源股份有限公司 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 根据公司初步统计，2025年4月，本公司及子公司按合并报表口径完成发电 量1,477,832.60兆瓦时，同比增加16.91%。截至2025年4月30日，累计完成发电量 发电量 地区 2025 年 4 月 同比变动 2025 年 1-4 月 同比变动 （兆瓦时） （%） （兆瓦时） （%） 风电业务 1,448,098.38 16.01 5,911,582.04 10.98 河北 1,040,486.76 20.19 4,341,569.16 13.91 山西 49,591.32 76.58 210,571.92 29.91 新疆 29,009.36 -30.29 95,661.69 -21.78 云南 59,548.95 -25.58 238,910.67 -19.45 山东 10,332.64 62.27 32,696.04 -1.00 内蒙古 75,063.98 4 ...