Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xinyi Solar (968 HK) [2] Core Views - Xinyi Solar's 1H24 net profit attributable to shareholders reached HKD 1.96 billion, a 41% YoY increase, aligning with the performance forecast [2] - The company's strong 1H24 performance was driven by steady growth in photovoltaic (PV) glass sales (+12.2% YoY) and improved gross margins (+6.3 ppts YoY to 21.5%) [2] - However, PV glass prices have declined since May 2024, and the report expects challenges in 2H24 due to oversupply and lower gross margins [2][3] - The report revised down 2024/2025/2026 EPS estimates by 36%/26%/2% to HKD 0.40/0.65/0.90, and the target price was reduced by 36% to HKD 5.31 [2] Operational Performance and Challenges - PV glass prices have dropped significantly since May 2024, with 2.0mm PV glass prices down by HKD 4/m² (21.9%) from the year's peak and HKD 3/m² (17.4%) lower than the same period in 2023 [3] - Weak terminal demand and rapid capacity expansion contributed to the price decline, with domestic module production in May/June 2024 down by 4.1%/13.4% compared to April 2024 [3] - The report anticipates continued supply-demand challenges in 2H24, leading to a potential decline in gross margins for the PV glass business [3] Capital Expenditure and Production Adjustments - Xinyi Solar plans to reduce 2024 capital expenditure by 17.6% to HKD 5.77 billion, with a 29% cut in PV glass-related capex to HKD 3.2 billion [4] - The company maintains its target of commissioning 6 production lines in 2024 (4 in Anhui, 2 in Malaysia), but the timeline may be delayed [4] - These adjustments aim to better manage supply-demand dynamics and navigate market challenges [4] Industry Outlook - The PV glass industry has seen a slowdown in capacity expansion since 2023 due to improved local government oversight and early warning mechanisms [5] - The report expects a more balanced supply-demand relationship and healthier competition in the industry as capacity warning mechanisms are further refined [5] Financial Forecasts - Revenue for 2024E/2025E/2026E is projected at HKD 27.84 billion/HKD 35.85 billion/HKD 38.52 billion, with YoY growth of 4.56%/28.76%/7.43% [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024E/2025E/2026E is forecasted at HKD 3.56 billion/HKD 5.81 billion/HKD 8.00 billion [6] - EPS for 2024E/2025E/2026E is estimated at HKD 0.40/HKD 0.65/HKD 0.90 [6] Valuation Metrics - The target price is set at HKD 5.31, with a current share price of HKD 3.71 as of July 31, 2024 [8] - PE ratios for 2024E/2025E/2026E are 9.28x/5.68x/4.13x, while PB ratios are 0.98x/0.90x/0.80x [6][8]

交银国际研究 公司更新 新能源 2024 年 8 月 1 日 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 港元 3.71 港元 4.09↓ +10.2% 信义光能 (968 HK) 发电业务拖累业绩，光伏玻璃行业进入产能出清阶段 低基数下光伏玻璃毛利率同比大幅提升，发电业务拖累业绩：公司 2024 年上半年实现收入 12.7 亿港元，同比+4.5%，归母净利 19.6 亿港元，同比 +41.0%，略超预告中值19.5 亿港元。由于产量增长，光伏玻璃销量同比增 长 12.2%，但产销率偏低导致存货环比大增 59%，分部收入增长 4.8%至 110.9亿港元，尽管销售均价下跌，但原燃料价格大跌导致成本下降更多， 分部毛利率在低基数下同比提高 6.3 个百分点至 21.5%，因售价下跌环比 则下降4.9个百分点。由于累计装机增长，光伏发电收入同比+3.8%至15.5 亿港元，但由于弃光率及市场电量比例提升，分部毛利率同比下降 4.9 个 百分点至65.5%。公司上半年自建光伏装机300兆瓦，向信义能源出售200 兆瓦，下半年无自建计划。人民币兑港元同比贬值 4.2%也对业绩造成了 负面影响。 扩产慢于预期，冷修老旧产能降低成本：公司 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][4] Core Views - The company's profitability has significantly improved year-on-year, showcasing its leading advantages at the bottom of the industry cycle [2][3] - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of HKD 12.687 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 1.963 billion, a year-on-year increase of 41% [2][3] Summary by Sections Performance Analysis - The sales volume of photovoltaic glass has increased, and profitability has improved year-on-year. The company added two new photovoltaic glass production lines in Wuhu (2*1000t/d) and Malaysia (1200t/d), bringing total capacity to 29,000t/d by the end of June 2024, which led to a 12.2% year-on-year increase in sales volume [3] - The gross margin for photovoltaic glass improved by 6.3 percentage points year-on-year to 21.5% due to lower procurement costs for soda ash and natural gas. However, the gross margin decreased compared to the second half of 2023 due to increased production capacity and weakened downstream component production [3] Market Conditions - In July, the component production continued to weaken, leading to increased inventory and pressure on prices and profitability in the photovoltaic glass industry. The average industry inventory increased by 11.78% month-on-month to 32.6 days, with mainstream prices for 2.0mm glass dropping to HKD 14-14.5 per square meter [4] - The report anticipates that due to the current oversupply in the industry, significant recovery in prices and profitability in the second half of the year is unlikely. However, the exit of outdated production capacity may accelerate, which could help stabilize the market [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Based on current judgments regarding the photovoltaic glass industry's prices and profitability, the company's net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to HKD 4.276 billion (-14%), HKD 5.364 billion (-14%), and HKD 6.492 billion (-15%) respectively. The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 8/6/5 times [4][6]

Financial Performance - Revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was HKD 12,686.8 million, representing a 4.5% increase compared to HKD 12,141.9 million in the same period of 2023[2] - Profit attributable to equity holders of the company increased by 41.0% to HKD 1,962.5 million, up from HKD 1,391.5 million year-on-year[2] - Basic earnings per share rose by 40.9% to HKD 22.03, compared to HKD 15.63 in the previous year[2] - Gross profit for the first half of 2024 was HKD 3,405.98 million, an increase from HKD 2,672.32 million in the first half of 2023[4] - The company reported a total comprehensive income of HKD 1,035.28 million for the period, significantly higher than HKD 171.76 million in the same period last year[5] - The total comprehensive income for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was HKD 1,071,444 thousand, compared to a total comprehensive loss of HKD 188,208 thousand in the same period of 2023[11] - The operating profit before tax for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was HKD 2,661,532 thousand, up from HKD 2,018,159 thousand in 2023, indicating a growth of approximately 32%[29] - The company's EBITDA for the first half of 2024 reached HKD 3,910.3 million, an increase of 28.0% compared to HKD 3,054.5 million in the first half of 2023, with an EBITDA margin of 30.8%[111] - Net profit attributable to equity holders for the first half of 2024 was HKD 1,962.5 million, up 41.0% from HKD 1,391.5 million in the first half of 2023, resulting in a net profit margin increase from 11.5% to 15.5%[112] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets as of June 30, 2024, amounted to HKD 62,465.02 million, compared to HKD 60,432.99 million at the end of 2023[8] - Non-current assets increased to HKD 42,057.17 million from HKD 40,611.36 million at the end of 2023[7] - Current assets totaled HKD 20,407.85 million, up from HKD 19,821.63 million at the end of 2023[7] - Total liabilities increased to HKD 24,971.37 million from HKD 22,574.59 million at the end of 2023[8] - The company's total equity attributable to equity holders increased from HKD 29,748,412 thousand on January 1, 2023, to HKD 31,827,411 thousand on June 30, 2024, representing a growth of approximately 6.9%[9] - The company's borrowings increased to HKD 4,913,988 thousand in the six months ended June 30, 2024, up from HKD 3,575,927 thousand in the previous year, representing an increase of approximately 37.4%[15] - Total borrowings increased to HKD 11,155,364,000 as of June 30, 2024, from HKD 10,502,857,000, reflecting a growth of 6.2%[56] - The company's total liabilities, including trade payables and other payables, amounted to HKD 8,015,884,000 as of June 30, 2024, compared to HKD 8,307,187,000 as of December 31, 2023[52] Cash Flow and Investments - The cash generated from operating activities for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was HKD 2,057,602 thousand, a decrease from HKD 2,612,152 thousand in the prior year, reflecting a decline of approximately 21%[13] - The net cash used in investing activities for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was HKD 2,998,032 thousand, compared to HKD 4,602,425 thousand in the same period of 2023, showing a reduction of about 35%[13] - The company reported a decrease in cash and cash equivalents from HKD 3,951,921 thousand at the end of June 2023 to HKD 2,028,561 thousand at the end of June 2024, a decline of approximately 48.7%[15] - The net cash generated from operating activities was HKD 1,254.8 million, a decrease from HKD 2,189.0 million in the first half of 2023, primarily due to increased working capital requirements[114] Dividends and Shareholder Returns - The company declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.10 per share, compared to HKD 0.075 per share in the previous year[2] - The board declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.10 per share for the first half of 2024, an increase from HKD 0.075 per share in the same period of 2023[136] Market and Industry Trends - The solar industry continues to face challenges such as cyclical supply-demand imbalances and high-interest environments, yet the potential for growth remains strong due to competitive solar energy pricing[73] - In the first half of 2024, China's new photovoltaic installations reached 102.48 GW, a 30.7% increase compared to the first half of 2023[79] - The global photovoltaic market saw a significant increase in installations, with at least 407.3 GW to 446 GW of photovoltaic systems deployed in 2023, marking a growth rate of over 120% in China[77][78] - The company noted that the decline in solar component prices since mid-2023 has led to explosive growth in global photovoltaic installations, enhancing investment returns for solar projects[75] - The average selling price of solar products has decreased, but production efficiency improvements and lower raw material costs have offset this decline[72] - The company anticipates that the solar industry will maintain high growth levels in 2024, despite challenges related to grid capacity and power consumption issues[79][80] Production and Capacity - The total daily melting capacity of the company's solar glass production lines was 29,000 tons as of June 30, 2024, with 27,000 tons being operational capacity, reflecting increases of 4.7% and 23.9% compared to December 31, 2023, and June 30, 2023, respectively[84] - The company plans to add six new production lines with a total daily melting capacity of 6,400 tons, increasing total daily melting capacity from 25,800 tons at the end of 2023 to 32,200 tons by the end of 2024[119] - The company is actively expanding overseas production capacity to meet global demand, with three new production bases under construction in Yunnan, Jiangxi, and Indonesia[120] Research and Development - Research and development expenses for the six months ended June 30, 2024, were HKD 326,606 thousand, compared to HKD 317,379 thousand in 2023, indicating a slight increase of approximately 2.4%[33] Corporate Governance - The company has adhered to the listing rules and corporate governance code during the first half of 2024, with a noted exception regarding the separation of roles for the Chairman and CEO[139] - Mr. Li Shengpo has been appointed as the CEO, while also serving as Vice Chairman, which the board believes will facilitate efficient execution of business strategies[139] - The mid-term performance for the first half of 2024 has been reviewed by the board's audit committee, consisting of independent non-executive directors[142] - The interim report for the first half of 2024 will be published in accordance with the listing rules and relevant legal regulations[143]

交银国际研究 公司更新 | 收盘价 | | | | 2024 年 7 月 2 日 | |-------------|----|----|----|-------------------------------| | 港元 3.93 | | | | | 新能源 信义光能 (968 HK) 光伏玻璃供过于求加剧,多晶硅投产陷入两难,维持中性 需求疲软、供给持续增加,光伏玻璃供过于求加剧:5 月美国取消对进口 双面组件的 201 关税豁免,并开展对东南亚 4 国光伏组件的双反调查,导 致东南亚组件尤其是双玻组件对美出货锐减,由于库存压力,组件环节 5- 6 月持续减产。上半年光伏玻璃日熔量增加 1.8 万吨至 12.3 万吨,其中 3-5 月投产加速,6 月有所放缓。由于供给持续增长和需求下降,光伏玻璃 4 月下旬以来持续累库且近期加速,6 月底行业库存天数增至 29 天以上(公 司约 20 天),导致 2.0/3.2 毫米玻璃每平米价格由 4 月的 18.25/26.25 元 (人民币,下同)下跌 13.7%/6.7%至 6 月底的 15.75/24.5 元,7 月或将继 续下跌。尽管东南亚组件产能对玻璃需求减弱 ...

Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2023 was HKD 26,628.8 million, an increase of 29.6% compared to 2022[11]. - Profit attributable to equity holders increased by 9.6% to HKD 4,187.1 million, with basic earnings per share rising to HKD 0.4704 from HKD 0.4295 in 2022[11]. - Gross profit increased by HKD 931.2 million or 15.1% from HKD 6,158.5 million in 2022 to HKD 7,089.7 million in 2023, despite a decline in overall gross margin to 26.6% from 30.0% in 2022[54]. - The gross profit contribution from the solar glass business rose by 20.0% to HKD 5,033.6 million in 2023, while the gross margin for this segment decreased by 2.4 percentage points to 21.4%[54]. - The gross profit contribution from the solar power plant business increased by 5.3% to HKD 2,035.8 million, with a gross margin decline to 68.5% from 70.4% in 2022[55]. - EBITDA reached HKD 7,780.2 million, a 12.2% increase from HKD 6,933.3 million in 2022, with an EBITDA margin of 29.2%[65]. - Net profit attributable to equity holders increased by 9.6% to HKD 4,187.1 million, while the net profit margin decreased to 15.7% from 18.6% in 2022[65]. - The total revenue from solar glass increased by 33.3% year-on-year in 2023[21]. - In 2023, the company's revenue from solar glass sales increased by 33.3% to HKD 23,532.9 million, driven by higher sales volume and optimized sales mix[46]. Market Dynamics - The global photovoltaic (PV) installed capacity saw unprecedented growth in 2023, driven by energy transition and significant cost reductions[12]. - China's new PV installed capacity increased by 148.1% year-on-year to 216.88 GW in 2023, with 78.42 GW in the first half and 138.46 GW in the second half[15]. - The market for PV installations is diversifying, with an increasing number of countries adding over 1 GW of new capacity annually[13]. - The company anticipates that high interest rates and macroeconomic uncertainties may continue to impact future project development timelines[12]. - The global photovoltaic installation volume is expected to continue growing in 2024, although at a slower rate compared to the previous two years, driven by a significant decrease in solar component prices[31]. Production Capacity and Expansion - The company achieved a record new grid-connected capacity of 1,094 MW in 2023, with large-scale ground projects accounting for 974 MW and distributed generation projects for 120 MW[10]. - The cumulative approved grid-connected capacity of solar power projects reached 5,944 MW by December 31, 2023, with 5,541 MW from large-scale ground-mounted projects[25]. - The company expanded its daily melting capacity of solar glass to 25,800 tons by the end of 2023, an increase of 6,000 tons from the beginning of the year[21]. - The company plans to increase its total daily melting capacity of solar glass from 25,800 tons at the end of 2023 to 32,200 tons by the end of 2024, adding six new production lines with a total daily melting capacity of 6,400 tons[33]. - The company actively conducted feasibility studies for capacity expansion in various locations in China and overseas to prepare for sustainable development[21]. Supply Chain and Cost Management - The company noted that the supply chain bottlenecks in polysilicon have been resolved, leading to a significant drop in installation costs[12]. - The solar glass business experienced improved gross margins in the second half of 2023, contributing positively to overall profitability[10]. - In the first half of 2023, the average gross margin for solar glass was under pressure at 15.2%, but improved significantly to 26.4% in the second half of 2023[17]. - Solar glass sales volume increased by approximately 20.3% in the second half of 2023 compared to the first half, with a year-on-year growth of 49.3%[21]. - The market dynamics for solar glass improved steadily in the second half of 2023, transitioning from a relatively oversupplied market to a more balanced one[17]. Corporate Governance and Management - The company is committed to maintaining high standards of corporate governance and transparency in its operations[92]. - The board consists of four executive directors, two non-executive directors, and three independent non-executive directors, ensuring a diverse governance structure[100]. - The company has established a robust internal control system to monitor corporate governance practices and risk management[99]. - The board of directors has confirmed compliance with the applicable principles and provisions of the Corporate Governance Code for the year ending December 31, 2023[99]. - The company has a policy for the rotation of directors, with one-third of the board members required to retire at each annual general meeting[102]. Shareholder and Dividend Information - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of HKD 0.15 per share, subject to shareholder approval at the upcoming annual general meeting[11]. - The company reported a significant decline in distributable reserves, approximately HKD 7,441.7 million as of December 31, 2023, down from HKD 8,299.4 million in 2022[169]. - The company aims to maintain a stable dividend payout ratio while balancing operational cash needs and future growth[171]. - The board proposed a final dividend of HKD 0.15 per share for the year ending December 31, 2023, subject to shareholder approval[154]. Environmental and Social Responsibility - The company has implemented various environmental measures, including using natural gas in glass furnaces and recycling waste glass in production[156][157]. - The company aims to improve air quality and reduce carbon emissions through investments in solar power projects[158]. - The company made charitable donations amounting to HKD 18.28 million for the year ending December 31, 2023, compared to HKD 13.29 million in 2022[162]. Risks and Challenges - The company faced risks related to solar glass supply and demand, which are influenced by macroeconomic factors and production capacity of other manufacturers[166]. - The company’s operational performance may be adversely affected by foreign exchange and other financial risks[164]. - The company’s ability to adjust production levels in response to market changes may be limited, potentially leading to pricing pressures[166].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xinyi Solar (0968.HK) with a target price of HKD 8.16, indicating a potential upside of 38% from the current price of HKD 5.91 [7][12]. Core Insights - The supply and demand for photovoltaic glass have improved, stabilizing prices. The implementation of capacity warning policies by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has led to a significant decrease in new production capacity since the second half of 2023. This trend is expected to continue into 2024, resulting in a healthier industry environment [4][9]. - The company has significant advantages in expanding production both domestically and internationally, with plans to add 6,400 tons of new capacity in 2024. This includes four new 1,000-ton production lines in Wuhu, Anhui, and two 1,200-ton lines in Malaysia, which are expected to increase the daily melting capacity to 32,200 tons by the end of 2024, representing a 35.2% increase from 2023 [5][10]. - The acceleration of new photovoltaic power station connections is expected to contribute to profitability, with the company achieving a record 1,094 MW of new connections in 2023. The total connected capacity is nearing 6 GW, leading to an 8.2% year-on-year increase in revenue from photovoltaic power stations [6][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Overview - As of the end of 2023, the total market capitalization of Xinyi Solar is HKD 526 billion, with total assets amounting to HKD 60,433 million and net assets of HKD 37,858 million. The earnings per share for 2023 is projected at HKD 0.58, with a dividend per share of HKD 0.2678 [2][14]. - Revenue is expected to grow from HKD 26,629 million in 2023 to HKD 34,384 million in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 29.1% [14]. Production Capacity and Market Position - The company has successfully added six new production lines in 2023, increasing its total daily melting capacity to 25,800 tons. The planned expansions in 2024 will further enhance its market position in the photovoltaic glass sector [5][10]. Profitability and Future Projections - The report anticipates a continued improvement in gross margins for photovoltaic glass due to stable prices and reduced production costs from lower raw material prices. The projected net profit for 2024 is HKD 5,183 million, with a net profit margin of 18% [14].

证券研究报告 公 2024年03月10日 司 报 告 信义光能(00968) 行 业： 电力设备/光伏设备 │ 港 投资评级： 买入（首次） 股 当前价格： 5.91港元 23H2 光伏玻璃利润率环比明显改善，超预期 - 公 目标价格： 9.30港元 司 公司公告23年全年业绩，23 年收入266 亿港元，同比+30%；归母净利润 年 基本数据 报 42亿港元，同比+10%。其中23H2收入145亿港元，同比+34%，环比+19%； 点 总股本/流通股本(百万股) 8,903.61/8,903.61 归母净利润28亿港元，同比+46%，环比+101%。 评 流通市值(百万港元) 52,620.35  23H2光伏玻璃盈利能力环比大幅改善，规模等竞争优势不断提升 每股净资产(元) 3.26 23年公司光伏玻璃收入为235亿港元，同比+33%；毛利率为21.4%，同比 资产负债率(%) 34.36 -2.4pct。23H2 其收入为 130 亿港元，同/环比分别+35%/+23%；毛利率为 一年内最高/最低(港元) 9.78/3.42 26.4%，同/环比分别+5.2/+11.2pct。收入增长动能强劲，价格略 ...

公司点评 信义光能(0968.HK)： 毛利率大幅回升，领先优势凸显 香港 新能源 近日公司发布2023年度业绩，2023 年实现营业收入266.29 亿港元，同比增长 29.6%；股东应占溢利41.87亿港元，同 2024年03月06日 买入 比增长9.6%；每股基本盈利0.47港元，公司拟派发末期股息 目标价（HKD） 7.22 0.15港元，派息比例约31.9%。公司2023年业绩略超市场 预期。 收盘价 (05 Mar 24) 5.26 上升/下降 37.3% 2023年业绩略超市场预期。根据国家能源局的数据，2023年全国光伏发 恒生指数 16162.64 电新增并网容量约为216.88 GW，同比大幅增长 148.1%。在全国光伏装 总市值 (HKD亿) 468 机量强劲增长的带动下，公司实现主营业务收入266.29亿港元，同比增长 52周最高/最低 (HKD) 9.57/3.42 29.6%。公司两大业务分部中，太阳能玻璃销售收入同比增长33.3%至 资料来源: Wind，国信证券（香港）研究部整理 235.33亿港元， 毛利同比增长20.04%至50.34亿港元；太阳能发电场的 近一年股价涨跌 ...

智通财经APP获悉，信义光能(00968)再涨超5%，绩后累涨35%，截至发稿，涨5.3%，报5.17港元，成交额2.41亿港元。 消息面上，信义光能此前发布业绩，该集团期内取得收益266.29亿港元，同比增加29.62%；股东应占溢利41.87亿港元，同比增加9.61%；拟派发末期股息每股15港仙。 富瑞发布研报称，信义光能2023财年净利润达到41.87亿元，同比增长9.6%，超出市场预期7.8%。其中，太阳能玻璃业务的销售收入同比增长33.3%，达到235亿元，销量同比增长49.3%。尽管其毛利率同比下跌2.4个百分点至21.4%，但由于有严格的成本控制及需求增加下，下半年的毛利率较上半年和去年同期上升至26.4%，显示出下半年度复苏势头强劲。 ...