本轮周期龙头企业窑炉规模优势减小，冷修带来的单位固定成本增加加大了成本差距 光伏玻璃窑炉技术扩散速度较快，2022年后光伏玻璃日熔量千吨左右窑炉点火潮阶段性缩小了窑炉规模 差距，2024年下半年开始，大部分落后产能在此阶段出清，因此窑炉规模的优势逐渐弱化。产能冷修引 起的产能利用率降低会带来固定成本(费用和折旧)的提升，或是本轮成本差距扩大的主要因素，该行估 计当前时点龙头企业与腰部企业成本差距平均约为3.6元/平。若剔除冷修所带来的额外成本费用，龙头 企业的平均成本优势约为2.4元/平。此后随着企业逐步优化人员以及设备，固定成本摊销会重新回到正 常水平，若不考虑冷修的额外成本，费用端的差距将重新扩大，头部企业凭借融资渠道的优势有望持续 降低其财务费用。展望未来，若第四代超大窑炉落地有望重启窑炉规模优势，头部企业资源端的布局能 力有望得到进一步发挥和体现。 风险提示 光伏玻璃成本研究框架：上一周期中窑炉规模是成本差距的主要来源 (1)窑炉：大型窑炉对于成品的优化体现在燃料单耗降低和成品率的提升。大型窑炉具备更高的熔化 率，单位面积的生产效率更高。成品率主要受切边和不良品的影响，大型窑炉生产出的原片更大，切边 ...

| 張格序號 | 大股東/董事/最高行政人員名 作出披露的 買入 / 賣出或涉及的 每股的平均價 | | | | | 持有權益的股份數目 佔已發行的 有關事件的日期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 股份數目 | | | ( 語參閱 上述 * 語 | 有投票權股 (日 / 月 / 年) 仿昌分配 | | CS20251024E00375 | JPMorgan Chase & Co. 1201(L) | | 14.954.595(L) | HKD 3.4694 | 626.099.558(L) | 6.84(L)21/10/2025 | | | | | | | 139,003,202(S) | 1.51(S) | | | | | | | 118,395,307(P) | 1.29(P) | 减持后，JPMorgan Chase & Co.最新持好仓数目为626,099,558股，持好仓比例由7.00%下降至6.84%。 | 股份代號: | 00968 | | --- | --- | | 上市法國名稱: | 信義光能控股有限公司 | | 日期 ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley reduced its stake in Xinyi Solar (00968) by 14,954,595 shares at a price of HKD 3.4694 per share, totaling approximately HKD 51.8835 million [1] - After the reduction, Morgan Stanley's remaining shareholding is approximately 626.1 million shares, representing a holding percentage of 6.84% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has reduced its stake in Xinyi Solar Holdings Limited, indicating a potential shift in investment strategy or market outlook [1] Group 1: Shareholding Changes - On October 21, Morgan Stanley sold approximately 14.95 million shares of Xinyi Solar at a price of HKD 3.4694 per share, totaling around HKD 51.88 million [1] - After the reduction, Morgan Stanley's remaining shareholding stands at approximately 626.1 million shares, representing a 6.84% ownership stake in Xinyi Solar [1]

Market Overview - The credit crisis among U.S. regional banks has intensified, leading to a decline in U.S. stock markets and a significant drop in Hong Kong stocks, with the Hang Seng Index falling nearly 3% at one point [1] - The Hang Seng Index closed down 2.48% at 25,247.1 points, with a total turnover of HKD 314.62 billion, while the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped 4.05% [1] - For the week, the Hang Seng Index fell 3.97%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 3.7%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 7.98% [1] Blue Chip Performance - Hansoh Pharmaceutical (03692) rose 2.13% to HKD 36.5, contributing 1.43 points to the Hang Seng Index, after signing a licensing agreement with Roche for its ADC HS-20110, with a total deal value of USD 1.53 billion [2] - Chow Tai Fook (01929) increased by 5.02%, while Link REIT (00101) rose 0.57% [2] - BYD Electronic (00285) fell 8.13%, negatively impacting the index by 4.21 points [2] Sector Performance - Major tech stocks collectively declined, with Alibaba down over 4% and Tencent nearly 2% [3] - Chip stocks saw significant losses, with ZTE Corporation down over 12% and Hua Hong Semiconductor down nearly 7% [3][4] - The photovoltaic sector continued to decline, with rumors about a multi-crystalline silicon storage platform being unsubstantiated, leading to further losses in solar stocks [4][6] Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market experienced a sharp decline, with Bitcoin dropping nearly 5% to USD 104,986, and Ethereum down nearly 7% [6] - The decline was attributed to concerns over credit markets following recent events involving U.S. regional banks and the ongoing government shutdown [6] Notable Stock Movements - Lao Pu Gold (06181) rose 3.11% after announcing a price adjustment for its products, marking its third price change this year [7] - China Duty Free Group (01880) increased by 2.05% following the announcement of expanded duty-free shopping policies in Hainan [8] - NIO Inc. (09866) saw a 2.17% increase, responding to a lawsuit that is not related to its recent operational status [9] - Fuyao Glass (03606) fell 5.73% after announcing a leadership change and reporting Q3 revenue of approximately CNY 11.855 billion, up 18.86% year-on-year [10]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong solar stocks continue to decline, with Fuyao Glass (03606.HK) down 4.89% to HKD 68.1 [1] - Xinte Energy (01799.HK) decreased by 4.64%, trading at HKD 7.81 [1] - Xinyi Solar (00968.HK) fell 3.8%, currently priced at HKD 3.54 [1] - Flat Glass Group (06865.HK) dropped 2.77%, with a price of HKD 11.23 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic sector continues to experience a downward trend in stock prices, with significant declines observed in major companies such as Fuyao Glass, Xinte Energy, and Xinyi Solar, amidst concerns over the industry's performance and recent rumors regarding polysilicon storage plans [1] Industry Summary - The photovoltaic industry is currently facing challenges, with a notable decline in monthly new installations for three consecutive months following a surge earlier in the year. In August, the new installations amounted to 7.36 GW, representing a year-on-year decrease of 55.29% and a month-on-month decrease of 33.33% [1] - The profitability of photovoltaic companies in the future will largely depend on the pace of capacity clearance and the demand for photovoltaic installations after the marketization of on-grid electricity prices, as indicated by Guosen Securities [1] Company Summary - Fuyao Glass (03606) saw a stock price drop of 4.89%, closing at 68.1 HKD - Xinte Energy (01799) experienced a decline of 4.64%, with a closing price of 7.81 HKD - Xinyi Solar (00968) fell by 3.8%, ending at 3.54 HKD - Flat Glass Group (06865) decreased by 2.77%, closing at 11.23 HKD [1]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic sector continues to experience a downward trend, with significant declines in stock prices for major companies, amidst concerns regarding the industry's polysilicon storage plans and a drop in new installations [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Fuyao Glass (03606) decreased by 4.89%, trading at HKD 68.1 [1] - Xinte Energy (01799) fell by 4.64%, trading at HKD 7.81 [1] - Xinyi Solar (00968) dropped by 3.8%, trading at HKD 3.54 [1] - Flat Glass Group (06865) declined by 2.77%, trading at HKD 11.23 [1] Group 2: Industry Developments - Recent rumors about the establishment of a polysilicon storage platform have been confirmed as false by industry authorities [1] - The photovoltaic association clarified that the "three-day meeting" rumor was related to a monthly meeting [1] Group 3: Installation Trends - After the "531 rush" earlier this year, the monthly new installation capacity in China has declined for three consecutive months [1] - In August, the new installation capacity was 7.36 GW, representing a year-on-year decrease of 55.29% and a month-on-month decrease of 33.33% [1] - Guosen Securities indicated that the profitability of photovoltaic companies will largely depend on the pace of capacity clearance and the market-driven pricing of grid-connected electricity [1]

信義光能(00968)今日股價表現相當搶眼，半日大升5.70%，報3.71元，成交額高達4.19億元，資金流入明顯， 技術走勢呈現明顯反彈勢頭，成功突破多個短期阻力位，成為新能源板塊中表現較為突出的股份之一。信義光能股價已經重上10日線水平，並逐步逼近3.86 元（阻力1），短線走勢明顯轉強。觀察技術指標，RSI錄得53，處於中性偏強水平 技術指標總結信號顯示「賣出」，但信號強度僅為8，屬於較弱級別，顯示市場雖然有部分短線獲利盤出現，但整體技術走勢仍然偏向正面。多個震盪指標如威廉指 標、隨機震盪指標及動量震盪指標均顯示中立至買入信號，其中ADX指標顯示「買入信號」，而CCI指標則處於中立狀態，反映市場資金有回流跡象，特別是在新能 源及光伏板塊重新獲得市場關注的情況下。整體上升概率為0.54，5日振幅為17%，顯示股價波動性偏高，但資金參與度明顯提升，成交額維持在4億元以上，反映市 場資金對光伏行業的信心正在恢復。 從支持與阻力位分析，短期支持位預計在3.27元（即市重要支持）、3.46元（保力加通道中軸附近）及3.52元（30日線附近），若失守3.27元，則需留意進一 步下試3.1元甚至3.0元關口的風險；短 ...

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic sector in China is experiencing a significant rally, driven by market rumors regarding new capacity control policies and a multi-billion yuan polysilicon storage platform expected to be finalized soon [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On October 14, the A-share photovoltaic main industry chain saw a collective surge, with stocks like Longi Green Energy and JA Solar hitting their daily limits, and Trina Solar rising over 15% [1]. - The net inflow into the photovoltaic equipment sector reached 1.969 billion yuan, ranking second in the A-share market, with Longi Green Energy being the largest beneficiary [1]. Group 2: Policy Developments - A new capacity control policy is rumored to be jointly issued by six ministries, aiming to prohibit new capacity and limit the operating rates of existing capacity to achieve supply-demand balance [2]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has held two high-level meetings to discuss the importance of the photovoltaic manufacturing sector and to establish guidelines for regulating competition within the industry [3]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The industry is witnessing a consensus on production control and price stabilization due to ongoing losses and operational pressures, with significant price increases observed in silicon materials and related products [2]. - The photovoltaic sector is facing a phase of insufficient demand, with a notable drop in new installations following a record high in May, leading to a decline in subsequent months [5].