丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨煤炭与消费用燃料 [Table_Title] 从福建煤矿事故看煤炭供给脆弱性 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 近日央视报道福建煤矿事故，引发市场广泛关注，如何看待本次事故对当前国内煤炭供给侧影 响？我们认为，煤炭作为重点安全行业，由于国内安监政策呈现明显的事故驱动特征，临近 9 月 3 日阅兵，特殊时点下福建煤矿事故或易放大地方安监管控强度，后续若有进一步强化安监 信号出现，则会对国内供给产生一定冲击。展望后市，在需求维稳而供给端有较强刚性约束预 期下，煤价弹性短期更期待供给管控力度，权益或仍有绝对收益。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 肖勇 赵超 叶如祯 庄越 韦思宇 SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S0490522090003 SAC：S0490524120007 SFC：BUT918 SFC：BUY139 煤炭与消费用燃料 cjzqdt11111 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table ...

Investment Strategy - The report highlights that global oil and gas capital expenditures are on a downward trend, leading to a slowdown in supply growth. Since the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015, capital expenditures in the oil and gas upstream sector have significantly decreased, with a notable drop of nearly 22% from the 2014 peak [9][29]. - The report indicates that major energy companies are facing increasing pressure from policies aimed at carbon reduction, prompting them to shift focus towards energy transition and renewable projects. This trend is expected to continue, resulting in a sustained reduction in capital expenditures for oil and gas [9][29]. - The report notes that the active drilling rig count in the U.S. remains low, which may lead to a slowdown in U.S. oil production growth. The OPEC+ group is also expected to maintain limited supply increases in the coming year [9][29]. Oil Market - The Brent crude oil price is reported at $67.93 per barrel, reflecting a slight increase of 0.03% week-on-week, while WTI crude oil is at $63.13 per barrel, down 0.28% [31][30]. - The report mentions that geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, have contributed to fluctuations in oil prices, with expectations of resilient demand amid limited supply growth [10][29]. Coal Market - The report states that the average market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 703 RMB per ton, showing a week-on-week increase of 1.59%. The market is characterized by stable prices, with downstream demand primarily driven by essential purchases [11][12]. - Inventory levels at major ports are reported to be 23.336 million tons, down 1.27% week-on-week, indicating a tightening supply situation [11][12]. - The report highlights that domestic coal production is being affected by weather conditions, but overall supply remains sufficient to meet demand from power plants and the chemical industry [11][12]. Coking Coal Market - The report indicates that the coking coal market is currently in a stalemate, with prices for coking coal remaining stable at 1,610 RMB per ton. The market is influenced by fluctuating raw material prices and the profitability of downstream steel enterprises [14][15]. - The report notes that the average daily pig iron production from 247 steel mills is 2.4082 million tons, reflecting a slight increase of 0.04% week-on-week, which supports the demand for coking coal [14][15]. Natural Gas Market - The report highlights a breakthrough in natural gas helium extraction technology in China, with a new device achieving a helium purity level of 6N9. This development is expected to enhance the domestic helium supply [16][17]. - Natural gas prices in the U.S. have decreased, with the NYMEX natural gas average at $2.81 per million British thermal units, down 2.2% week-on-week [16][17]. Oilfield Services - The report emphasizes that the oilfield services sector is expected to maintain its growth due to government policies aimed at increasing oil and gas reserves. The capital expenditure for major oil companies is projected to remain high, supporting the oilfield services industry's outlook [18][19]. - The global active rig count is reported at 1,621, with a slight increase of 21 rigs week-on-week, indicating ongoing activity in the oilfield services sector [18][19].

Group 1 - The overall shareholding ratio of southbound funds in Hong Kong Stock Connect stocks is 18.52%, with 225 stocks having a shareholding ratio exceeding 20% [1] - As of August 22, southbound funds held a total of 4,644.35 million shares, accounting for 18.52% of the total share capital of the stocks, with a market value of 58,612.16 billion HKD, representing 14.16% of the total market value [1] - The highest shareholding ratio by southbound funds is in China Telecom, with 103.72 million shares held, accounting for 74.73% of the issued shares [1] Group 2 - Southbound funds with a shareholding ratio exceeding 20% are mainly concentrated in the healthcare, financial, and industrial sectors, with 46, 34, and 32 stocks respectively [2] - The top stocks with high southbound fund holdings include China Telecom, Green Power Environmental, and China Shenhua, with shareholding ratios of 74.73%, 69.97%, and 68.02% respectively [2][3] - A significant portion of the stocks with high southbound fund holdings are AH concept stocks, with 122 out of 225 stocks (54.22%) having a shareholding ratio over 20% being AH stocks [1]

Core Insights - The top three companies by Hong Kong Stock Connect holding ratios are China Telecom (74.73%), Gree Power (69.97%), and China Shenhua (68.02%) [1] - Tencent Holdings, ZTE Corporation, and China Life Insurance saw the largest increases in holding amounts over the last five trading days, with increases of +2.325 billion, +1.195 billion, and +1.174 billion respectively [1] - The largest decreases in holding amounts were observed in the Yingfu Fund (-9.695 billion), Hang Seng China Enterprises (-4.549 billion), and Kuaishou-W (-1.290 billion) [2] Group 1: Top Holding Ratios - China Telecom (00728) holds 10.372 billion shares, representing 74.73% [1] - Gree Power (01330) holds 0.283 billion shares, representing 69.97% [1] - China Shenhua (01088) holds 2.298 billion shares, representing 68.02% [1] - Other notable companies include Kaisa New Energy (67.68%) and Tianjin Chuangye Environmental Protection (64.36%) [1] Group 2: Recent Increases in Holdings - Tencent Holdings (00700) increased by +2.325 billion, with a change of +3.8742 million shares [1] - ZTE Corporation (00763) increased by +1.195 billion, with a change of +33.1474 million shares [1] - China Life Insurance (02628) increased by +1.174 billion, with a change of +47.359 million shares [1] Group 3: Recent Decreases in Holdings - Yingfu Fund (02800) decreased by -9.695 billion, with a change of -37.5204 million shares [2] - Hang Seng China Enterprises (02828) decreased by -4.549 billion, with a change of -4.9016 million shares [2] - Kuaishou-W (01024) decreased by -1.290 billion, with a change of -17.2260 million shares [2]

● 本报记者 李嫒嫒 8月以来，A股上市公司并购重组持续活跃。Wind数据显示，8月1日至8月24日，共有96家上市公司披露 并购重组公告。专家表示，并购重组是推动资源优化配置的重要方式，也是上市公司提质增效的重要手 段。 多起案例涉及化解同业竞争 "本次重组不是简单规模叠加，其核心目标在于实现'1+1＞2'的战略倍增效应。"中国神华相关负责人在 接受媒体采访时表示，通过本次交易，公司将从实质上解决同业竞争问题、进一步提高资源储备、优化 产业布局。同时，此次重组资产也是落实煤炭"反内卷"的有力措施，有利于促进能源行业有序发展和良 性竞争。 支持政策连续出台 中国证券报记者注意到，支持上市公司开展并购重组的相关政策持续出台，推动产业创新升级。 日前，中国人民银行等七部门联合印发《关于金融支持新型工业化的指导意见》提出，完善并购贷款政 策，支持链主企业聚焦产业链上下游开展"补链""延链"型投资，带动全产业链协同发展。 国务院国资委党委书记、主任张玉卓日前在沪调研央企战略性新兴产业发展情况时提出，要坚持内涵式 发展和高质量并购并重，以国家产业政策和市场为导向，选准选好重点投资领域，坚持投早、投小、投 硬科技，当好长 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - The Asian metallurgical coal market is expected to continue its recovery in Q3 2025, supported by post-monsoon inventory replenishment in India and potential rebounds in the Chinese domestic market [2]. - Despite supply pressures from adverse weather and safety issues in Australian mining, the overall outlook for the metallurgical coal market remains positive [2]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Global energy prices have shown mixed trends, with Brent crude oil futures at $67.73 per barrel, up by $1.88 (+2.85%) from the previous week, while WTI crude oil futures increased by $0.86 (+1.37%) to $63.66 per barrel [1]. - Natural gas prices in Northeast Asia rose to $11.705 per million British thermal units, an increase of $0.847 (+7.80%) [1]. Coal Price Trends - European ARA port coal prices increased by $3.0 to $101.8 per ton (+3.1%), while Newcastle port coal prices rose slightly by $0.2 to $112.3 per ton (+0.2%) [1]. - The IPE South African Richards Bay coal futures settled at $89.7 per ton, down by $0.5 (-0.4%) [1]. Investment Recommendations - Key recommendations include major coal enterprises such as China Coal Energy (H+A) and China Shenhua (H+A), with a focus on companies showing potential for turnaround like China Qinfa [3]. - High-performing stocks include Shaanxi Coal and Electricity, China Energy Investment, and Huai Bei Mining, while companies like Yancoal and Jinkong Coal are noted for their flexibility and potential for growth [3]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights a significant trend where China is transitioning from a coal importer to an exporter, driven by a surplus in the domestic market [8]. - The forecast for Q3 2025 anticipates that the price of high-quality low-volatile hard coking coal will average $178 per ton, with expectations of $181 per ton in the second half of 2025 [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [9] Core Insights - The resilience of demand must be paired with the rigidity of supply to support a stable coal price cycle. Developed countries have already entered a downward supply channel, while countries with current supply growth may face similar risks in the future. The combination of supply rigidity and demand resilience is expected to lead to a stable global coal supply-demand pattern [2][7] Summary by Sections Introduction - The report emphasizes that the stability of coal prices requires a logical closure formed by supply rigidity. It explores the long-term perspectives on demand, supply, and costs, aiming to clarify the medium to long-term price center of coal [5][17] Experience from Developed Countries - Coal supply changes are primarily influenced by resource endowment and demand variations. Countries with shrinking coal supply account for about 19% of global supply, including the US, Europe, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and South Africa. Historical trends indicate that long-term coal supply contraction is typically due to resource depletion, long transportation distances, and stringent environmental policies [5][35] Outlook for Growing Countries - China faces supply growth constraints due to resource depletion in Shanxi and central eastern regions. Indonesia and Russia are experiencing rising costs. Countries with ongoing coal supply growth account for approximately 77% of global supply, with China alone accounting for 50%. Future projections indicate potential supply shortages in China and declining production in Indonesia due to increased export costs [6][7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the combination of supply rigidity and demand resilience will prolong the duration of coal price flattening. It recommends several companies for investment based on their performance and market conditions, including Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, Shanxi Coking Coal Group, and China Shenhua Energy [7][9]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The social inventory of coal continues to decline, and the significant rise in futures prices boosts market confidence [6] - The coal sector has shown a mixed performance, with the CITIC coal industry index rising by 1.23%, underperforming the CSI 300 index which increased by 4.18% [2] - The coal supply-demand balance is improving, with a slight decrease in coal prices during the off-season, while coking coal production may see a marginal improvement due to environmental factors [6] Summary by Sections Coal Market Performance - As of August 22, 2025, the average daily coal sales of monitored enterprises were 7.08 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.7% [2] - The total coal inventory of monitored enterprises (including port storage) was 26.71 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 2% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.8% [2] Price Trends - The price of thermal coal (Q5500K) in the Bohai Rim was 671 CNY/ton, a week-on-week increase of 0.15% [3] - The price of coking coal at major ports remained stable, while the futures settlement price for coking coal was 1,141.5 CNY/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 6.7% [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend thermal coal companies and turnaround coking coal companies, with specific recommendations for companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others [6] - The overall coal supply-demand structure is expected to improve, with a gradual balance in supply and demand in the second half of the year [6]

Core Insights - The top three companies by Hong Kong Stock Connect holding ratios are China Telecom (00728) at 74.71%, Green Power Environmental (01330) at 69.95%, and China Shenhua (01088) at 68.06% [1] - The largest increases in holdings over the last five trading days were seen in the following companies: Yingfu Fund (02800) with an increase of 134.21 billion, Hang Seng China Enterprises (02828) with an increase of 66.24 billion, and Southern Hang Seng Technology (03033) with an increase of 51.77 billion [1] - The largest decreases in holdings over the last five trading days were recorded for Anta Sports (02020) with a decrease of 10.21 billion, Geely Automobile (00175) with a decrease of 7.70 billion, and HSBC Holdings (00005) with a decrease of 7.40 billion [2] Group 1: Hong Kong Stock Connect Holding Ratios - China Telecom (00728) has a holding of 10.368 billion shares, representing 74.71% [1] - Green Power Environmental (01330) has a holding of 0.283 billion shares, representing 69.95% [1] - China Shenhua (01088) has a holding of 2.299 billion shares, representing 68.06% [1] Group 2: Recent Increases in Holdings - Yingfu Fund (02800) saw an increase of 134.21 billion in holdings, with a change of 52.386 million shares [1] - Hang Seng China Enterprises (02828) experienced an increase of 66.24 billion, with a change of 7.216 million shares [1] - Southern Hang Seng Technology (03033) had an increase of 51.77 billion, with a change of 95.870 million shares [1] Group 3: Recent Decreases in Holdings - Anta Sports (02020) had a decrease of 10.21 billion in holdings, with a change of -10.268 million shares [2] - Geely Automobile (00175) experienced a decrease of 7.70 billion, with a change of -38.819 million shares [2] - HSBC Holdings (00005) saw a decrease of 7.40 billion, with a change of -7.332 million shares [2]

2025年8月22日 tial and 点击蓝字 关注" 中国电力报 " ▲ 近日,中国电力企业联合会2024年度风电、光伏全国 生产运行统计指标对标结果公布，其中，华电新疆公司 管辖32个新能源场站获评行业优胜场站。图为雪湖风电 场。 高翔 摄 01 行业新闻 ●中国月度用电量首破万亿大关，全球属首次。据央视财经消息，全社会用电量7月历史性突破万亿千瓦时大关，这在全球也属首次。国家能源局今天对 外发布了7月全社会用电量，达1.02万亿千瓦时，同比增长8.6%。比十年前翻了一番，相当于东盟国家全年的用电量。多轮高温天气与工业生产稳中向 好，共同带动用电量较快增长。查看详情→ ●国家能源局：7月份全社会用电量同比增长8.6%。8月21日，国家能源局发布7月份全社会用电量等数据。7月份，全社会用电量10226亿千瓦时，同比增 长8.6%。从分产业用电看，第一产业用电量170亿千瓦时，同比增长20.2%；第二产业用电量5936亿千瓦时，同比增长4.7%；第三产业用电量2081亿千瓦 时，同比增长10.7%；城乡居民生活用电量2039亿千瓦时，同比增长18.0%。查看详情→ ●前7个月国家铁路发送煤炭11.96亿吨。 ...