Group 1 - UBS expresses increased optimism regarding China's electricity market demand, forecasting an 8% growth from 2028 to 2030, which is double the previous estimate [1] - The firm identifies structural drivers such as AI data centers, exports, and electrification, with their impact expected to exceed earlier predictions [1] - Adjustments reflect enhanced confidence in the construction of AI data centers, accelerated growth in electricity exports, and rapid electrification, benefiting capital expenditures in power equipment and grids starting next year [1] Group 2 - UBS raises its earnings forecasts for relevant stocks by 2% to 18% for the years 2023 to 2027 [1] - The investment ratings for Daikin Heavy Industries and China General Nuclear Power (01816.HK) are upgraded to "Buy," with a preference for stocks trading at a projected P/E ratio of 15.6 times in 2026, below the historical average of 22 times and the global industry average of 50 times [1] - Preferred stocks include Harbin Electric (1133.HK) and China General Nuclear Power (1816.HK), along with interest in Dongfang Electric (1072.HK), Siyuan Electric, Yingliu Electromechanical, Goldwind (2208.HK), and Daikin Heavy Industries [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS has become more optimistic about China's electricity market demand, forecasting an 8% growth from 2028 to 2030, which is double the previous estimate [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Harbin Electric (01133) increased by 13.79%, trading at 13.53 HKD - Dongfang Electric (01072) rose by 11.24%, trading at 20.38 HKD - Shanghai Electric (02727) gained 5.54%, trading at 4.95 HKD [1][1][1] Group 2: Market Drivers - UBS attributes the increased demand to structural drivers such as AI data centers, exports, and electrification, with the impact expected to exceed earlier predictions [1][1] - The adjustments reflect enhanced confidence in the construction of AI data centers, accelerated growth in electricity exports, and faster electrification, benefiting capital expenditures in power equipment and grid starting next year [1][1] Group 3: Policy and Future Outlook - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China has proposed forward-looking layouts for future industries, promoting nuclear fusion energy as a new economic growth point [1] - Everbright Securities anticipates that since 2025, China's nuclear fusion sector will enter a rapid development phase, with multiple technological routes advancing, including projects like the Circulation No. 4 and Spark No. 1 [1][1] - The domestic market is gradually entering a phase of accelerated bidding and engineering construction for controllable nuclear fusion projects, indicating promising long-term development [1][1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS has released a report expressing increased optimism regarding China's electricity market demand, projecting an 8% growth from 2028 to 2030, which is double the previous forecast [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Harbin Electric (01133) shares rose by 13.79% to HKD 13.53 - Dongfang Electric (600875) shares increased by 11.24% to HKD 20.38 - Shanghai Electric (601727) shares climbed by 5.54% to HKD 4.95 [1] Group 2: Market Drivers - UBS attributes the increased demand forecast to structural drivers such as AI data centers, exports, and electrification, with the impact of these factors exceeding earlier expectations [1] - The report indicates that the adjustments reflect enhanced confidence in the growth of AI data center construction, accelerated electricity export growth, and faster electrification, which will benefit capital expenditures in power equipment and grid starting next year [1] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China has proposed forward-looking plans for future industries, promoting nuclear fusion energy as a new economic growth point [1] - Everbright Securities believes that since 2025, China's nuclear fusion sector has entered a rapid development phase in technology breakthroughs and industrial layout, with multiple technological routes advancing simultaneously [1] - The domestic market is gradually entering a phase of accelerated bidding and engineering construction for controllable nuclear fusion projects, indicating promising long-term development [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from UBS indicates a more optimistic outlook for China's electricity market demand, projecting an 8% growth from 2028 to 2030, which is double the previous forecast [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Several power equipment stocks have strengthened, with Harbin Electric rising by 13.79% to HKD 13.53, Dongfang Electric increasing by 11.24% to HKD 20.38, and Shanghai Electric up by 5.54% to HKD 4.95 [1] Group 2: Market Drivers - UBS attributes the increased demand forecast to structural drivers such as AI data centers, exports, and electrification, with expectations that these factors will significantly exceed earlier predictions [1] - The report reflects enhanced confidence in the acceleration of AI data center construction, increased power export growth, and faster electrification, which will benefit capital expenditures in power equipment and grid starting next year [1] Group 3: Future Industry Developments - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China has proposed forward-looking layouts for future industries, promoting nuclear fusion energy as a new economic growth point [1] - Everbright Securities notes that since 2025, China's nuclear fusion sector has entered a rapid development phase in technology breakthroughs and industrial layout, with multiple technological routes advancing simultaneously [1] - The domestic market is gradually entering a phase of accelerated release for controllable nuclear fusion project bidding and engineering construction, indicating promising long-term development [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the power and gas sectors, indicating a "Buy" recommendation for several companies within these industries [3][4]. Core Insights - The second industry is the main driver of electricity consumption growth, with a notable increase in electricity demand due to seasonal factors and high temperatures in Q3 [4][9]. - Global gas prices are rebounding, and expectations of a cold winter may enhance gas sales growth [18][19]. - The report highlights various investment opportunities across different energy sectors, including hydropower, green energy, nuclear power, thermal power, and gas [16][40]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity: Q3 Second Industry Drives National Electricity Consumption - In September, total electricity consumption reached 888.6 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 4.5% [10]. - The second industry contributed significantly to this growth, with a 5.1% increase in electricity consumption, accounting for 51% of the total growth [4][9]. - The cumulative electricity consumption from January to September was 7767.5 billion kWh, reflecting a 4.6% year-on-year growth [13]. 2. Gas: Global Gas Price Rebound and Cold Winter Expectations - As of October 24, the Henry Hub spot price was $3.21/mmBtu, showing a weekly increase of 13.96% [19][20]. - The report notes a seasonal demand increase and geopolitical factors supporting gas prices, particularly in Europe [25][37]. - The anticipated La Niña phenomenon may lead to colder winter conditions, potentially boosting gas consumption [37]. 3. Weekly Market Review - The report indicates that the power equipment sector outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, while the public utility, gas, and environmental protection sectors lagged [42]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - The report discusses significant developments in the energy sector, including the launch of innovative products in wind energy and updates on national energy policies [50][51]. - It highlights the performance of major companies, such as Huadian International, which reported a decrease in electricity generation due to increased renewable energy capacity [57].

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for several companies in the power and gas sectors, indicating a positive outlook for their performance [41]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recent adjustments in the value-added tax (VAT) policies for wind and nuclear power, which may impact profitability for operators in these sectors [9][10]. - It notes the competitive pricing results for electricity in Xinjiang and Gansu, with Xinjiang's prices nearing the upper limit of the bidding range, suggesting a favorable environment for renewable energy operators [8]. - The report discusses the decline in global LNG prices, with China's comprehensive LNG import price reaching a four-year low, which could benefit domestic gas companies [12][27]. Summary by Sections 1. Power Sector - Xinjiang's mechanism electricity bidding results show a scale of 36 billion kWh for solar and 185 billion kWh for wind, with prices at 0.235 CNY/kWh and 0.252 CNY/kWh respectively, indicating a competitive market [5][8]. - The VAT policy changes will eliminate the 50% VAT refund for onshore wind from November 1, 2025, while maintaining it for offshore wind until the end of 2027 [9][10]. - Recommendations include focusing on companies like Guodian Power, China Nuclear Power, and Longyuan Power due to their stable growth prospects [11]. 2. Gas Sector - Global gas prices have shown slight declines, with the US Henry Hub price at $2.82/mmBtu, reflecting a 2.90% weekly drop [12][15]. - China's LNG import price has dropped to 2852 CNY/ton, the lowest since mid-2021, driven by lower oil prices affecting long-term contracts [27][29]. - The report suggests a positive outlook for gas companies like Kunlun Energy and New Hope Energy, as cost reductions and economic recovery may enhance profitability [29]. 3. Environmental Sector - The report emphasizes the benefits of debt-for-equity swaps and the increasing stability of returns for green energy operators, recommending companies like China Everbright Environment and Hongcheng Environment [11]. - It highlights the ongoing rise in SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) prices, suggesting investment opportunities in related companies [11]. 4. Key Company Valuations - The report includes a valuation table for key companies, with several rated as "Buy," indicating strong expected performance in the coming years [41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the power and gas sectors, highlighting potential investment opportunities in renewable energy and gas companies [3][12]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the recent adjustments in value-added tax policies for wind and nuclear power, which may impact profitability in the short to medium term [10][11]. - It notes the significant drop in LNG import prices, reaching a four-year low, which could benefit gas companies and consumers [13][29]. - The report suggests that the competitive bidding results for electricity prices in Xinjiang and Gansu indicate varying strategies among renewable energy operators, which could lead to improved profit margins [9][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Power Sector - Xinjiang's competitive bidding results show a mechanism electricity price of 0.252 CNY/kWh for wind power, close to the upper limit, while Gansu's price is 0.1954 CNY/kWh, near the lower limit [5][9]. - The adjustment of the value-added tax policy for onshore wind power, effective November 1, 2025, will eliminate the 50% refund policy, while offshore wind will retain it until the end of 2027 [10][11]. - Recommendations include focusing on companies like Guodian Power, Sichuan Investment Energy, and China Nuclear Power due to their stable growth prospects [12]. 2. Gas Sector - The report highlights a slight decline in global gas prices, with the US Henry Hub price at $2.82/mmBtu, down 2.90% week-on-week, and LNG import prices in China dropping to 2852 CNY/ton, the lowest since mid-2021 [13][29]. - It suggests that the cost reduction in upstream resources and the recovery of the macro economy will benefit Hong Kong gas companies like Kunlun Energy and New Hope Energy [31]. - The report anticipates that the LNG prices may stabilize as demand increases with the onset of colder weather [29][31]. 3. Weekly Market Review - The public utility, power, gas, and environmental protection sectors outperformed the CSI 300 index during the week of October 13-17, 2025 [35]. - The report notes that the power equipment sector lagged behind the index, indicating potential investment opportunities in other sectors [35]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the upcoming competitive bidding for renewable energy projects in Anhui, with a bidding range set between 0.2 CNY/kWh and 0.3844 CNY/kWh [41][42]. - It highlights the performance of major companies, such as China General Nuclear Power and Longyuan Power, which reported varying results in their electricity generation [43][44].

Core Insights - The nuclear energy sector is experiencing significant growth, with leading companies like NuScale Power seeing stock increases of over 120% this year, indicating strong market interest and investment in nuclear fusion technology [2] - Global competition in nuclear fusion is intensifying, with countries like China and the U.S. ramping up investments and strategic initiatives to secure technological and material advantages [4][5] Investment Trends - China has invested at least $6.5 billion in nuclear fusion since 2023, significantly outpacing the U.S. Department of Energy's budget for fusion research [4] - The total investment in the global fusion industry is projected to rise from $1.9 billion in 2021 to $9.7 billion by 2025, reflecting a more than fivefold increase [6] Technological Advancements - The pace of technological development in nuclear fusion is faster than anticipated, with 35 out of 45 surveyed fusion companies expecting to operate commercial demonstration plants by 2030-2035 [6] - China's "Eastern Super Ring" Tokamak device has achieved a world record by maintaining plasma at 1 million degrees Celsius for 1066 seconds [6] Industry Opportunities - The nuclear fusion supply chain is becoming clearer, with key components like superconducting magnets and vacuum chambers showing significant market potential [7][10] - Companies like China National Nuclear Corporation and Dongfang Electric are well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand for nuclear power, especially in the context of AI data centers [12] Market Dynamics - The explosion of AI data centers is driving demand for stable, zero-carbon energy sources, with nuclear power emerging as a preferred option for tech giants [12] - In China, the procurement of nuclear power for AI data centers surged by 120% in the first half of 2025, leading to increased orders for nuclear fuel and equipment [12] Future Outlook - The nuclear energy sector is expected to continue its upward trajectory, with companies that can leverage technological breakthroughs and secure orders likely to see substantial growth [14] - Ongoing monitoring of policy, technology, and market dynamics will be essential for identifying investment opportunities in the complex nuclear fusion landscape [14]

Core Insights - The nuclear energy sector is experiencing significant growth, with leading companies like NuScale Power seeing stock increases of over 120% this year, indicating strong market interest and investment in nuclear fusion technology [1][5] - Global competition in nuclear fusion is intensifying, with substantial investments from countries like China and the U.S. aiming to establish leadership in this emerging energy source [2][3] Global Competition - The U.S. has prioritized nuclear fusion as a national security issue, mandating the start of a demonstration fusion power plant by the end of 2028, while China has invested at least $6.5 billion in fusion technology since 2023, significantly outpacing U.S. funding [1][2] - China dominates the supply of critical materials for nuclear fusion, producing nearly 80% of tungsten and 67% of vanadium globally, which are essential for fusion technology [2] Technological Breakthroughs - The total investment in the global fusion industry is projected to rise from $1.9 billion in 2021 to $9.7 billion by 2025, indicating rapid advancements in technology [3] - Chinese advancements include the "Eastern Super Ring" Tokamak achieving a world record of 1 million degrees Celsius plasma stability for 1066 seconds, showcasing significant progress in fusion technology [3] Industry Chain Opportunities - The nuclear fusion supply chain is becoming clearer, with key components like superconducting magnets and vacuum chambers showing substantial market potential [4] - Companies like Western Superconducting and AnTai Technology are positioned to benefit from the growing demand for materials and components essential for fusion reactors [4] AI Data Center Impact - The explosive growth of AI data centers is driving demand for stable and carbon-free energy sources, positioning nuclear power as a preferred option for tech giants [5] - In China, the procurement of nuclear power for AI data centers surged by 120% in the first half of 2025, leading to increased orders for nuclear fuel and equipment [5] Value Reassessment - The significant stock price increases of recommended companies, such as NuScale and China General Nuclear Power, validate the market's reassessment of their value in the context of nuclear energy advancements [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the hydropower sector, particularly large hydropower projects, due to improved fundamentals and favorable weather conditions [2][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the autumn floods have positively impacted hydropower generation, with significant increases in water inflow expected in the coming days [2][6]. - The announcement from the National Development and Reform Commission regarding the regulation of price competition is expected to alleviate irrational competition in the electricity market [2][8]. - Global natural gas prices are experiencing fluctuations, with U.S. prices remaining low while European prices are rebounding due to geopolitical tensions and increased heating demand [12][21]. Summary by Sections Electricity Sector - The report notes that hydropower generation in the Yangtze River basin has reached historical highs due to concentrated rainfall, with a total generation of approximately 235.13 billion kWh in the first three quarters of 2025, remaining stable compared to the previous year [2][6]. - The announcement on regulating price competition aims to create a fair market environment, which is expected to reduce irrational pricing behaviors in the electricity sector [7][8]. - Recommendations include focusing on large hydropower companies such as Guotou Power, Chuan Investment Energy, and Yangtze Power, as well as green energy firms like Xintian Green Energy and Longyuan Power [11]. Natural Gas Sector - As of October 10, 2025, U.S. Henry Hub spot prices were $2.90/mmBtu, reflecting a weekly decrease of 9.03%, while European gas prices, such as the TTF, saw an increase of 5.26% to €32.63/MWh [12][14]. - The report indicates that the natural gas consumption in August 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, with total consumption reaching 364.1 billion m³ [34]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on integrated natural gas companies like Kunlun Energy and New Hope Energy, as well as gas trading firms [36]. Environmental Sector - The report suggests that companies with stable performance and high dividend yields, such as Zhongshan Public Utilities and Everbright Environment, should be monitored for potential investment opportunities [11]. - The ongoing development of carbon trading markets and environmental regulations is expected to enhance the performance of companies in the environmental sector [46].