毛戈平（1318.HK）首次覆盖报告 何以高端？ 2025 年 01 月 04 日 ➢ 毛戈平是国内领先的中国高端美妆集团，东方美学的引领者。公司于 2000 年 7 月由中国著名化妆师毛戈平先生创立，旗下有 MAOGEPING（定位高端，主打光影 美学和东方美学理念）和至爱终生（定位大众时尚）两大品牌，业务涵盖彩妆、护肤 和化妆培训三大板块，24H1 彩妆/护肤/化妆艺术培训及相关销售的营收占比分别为 55%/41%/4%。根据弗若斯特沙利文数据，2023 年主品牌 MAOGEPING 是中国市 场十五大高端美妆品牌中唯一的国货品牌，占高端美妆行业的市场份额为 1.8%。 2024 年 12 月，公司成功在港交所上市，所募资金主要用于渠道拓展、品牌建设等。 ➢ 中国彩妆行业增长潜力大，目前正处于重要的结构性增长拐点。1）根据欧睿数 据，护肤品类为化妆品市场核心，彩妆品类占比略低但增速更高，2009-2023 年护 肤/彩妆市场规模 CAGR 分别为 8.6%/11.5%，23 年护肤/彩妆分别占化妆品整体份 额的 51.4%/11.3%。我们认为国内目前正处于护肤意识已经基本普及，中国彩妆市 场面临着对化妆 ...

Company Overview - The company is a high-end domestic cosmetics brand founded by renowned makeup artist Mao Geping in 2000, positioning itself as a luxury brand with a complete product line including makeup, skincare, and makeup training [24][25] - As of 1H24, the company has 387 SKUs across two brands: MAOGEPING (luxury) and Zhi Ai Zhong Sheng (mass market) [25] - In 2023, the company ranked 9th in China's high-end makeup market with a 3.9% market share, making it the only domestic brand in the top 10 [24][25] Financial Performance - The company achieved strong revenue growth of 58% YoY in 2023, with net profit increasing by 88% YoY [31] - In 1H24, revenue and net profit both grew by 41% YoY, maintaining strong momentum [31] - Gross margin and net margin remained at industry-leading levels of 80%+ and 20%+ respectively, showing an upward trend since 2022 [31][33] - Online revenue CAGR reached 49% from 2021 to 2023, with online sales accounting for 49.1% of total revenue in 1H24 [43][174] Product Strategy Makeup Line - The makeup line is based on light and shadow aesthetics and oriental aesthetics, with a strong competitive advantage in base makeup products [44][53] - Key products include the Fish Roe Cushion and Water Cream Foundation, with the Fish Roe Cushion ranking top 3 in Tmall's concealer and highlighter categories from 2021 to 2024 [132][136] - The company has successfully expanded its market share in foundation products, with its Tmall foundation category ranking rising to 5th in 2024 [132] Skincare Line - The skincare line focuses on pre-makeup care and post-makeup repair, with 50 SKUs as of 1H24 [143] - The Fish Roe Mask has become a star product, generating retail sales of 600+ million yuan in 2023 and 450+ million yuan in 1H24 [157] - Skincare revenue grew 50% YoY in 2023 and 35% YoY in 1H24, accounting for 41% of total revenue [150] Channel Strategy Offline Channels - The company operates 372 self-owned counters in over 120 cities as of 1H24, ranking second among all beauty brands in China [161][163] - Offline channels maintain high customer loyalty, with member repurchase rates reaching 32.8% in 2023, significantly higher than the industry average [166] - Same-store sales grew 36% YoY in 2023 and 18% YoY in 1H24, driven by professional makeup services and customer experience [169] Online Channels - Online sales grew rapidly, with revenue increasing from 529 million yuan in 2021 to 1.18 billion yuan in 2023, representing a CAGR of 49% [174] - Douyin sales surpassed Tmall in 2023, reaching 1.19 billion yuan in 1-11M24, an 85% YoY increase [177][182] - The company has built a balanced live-streaming ecosystem, with brand self-broadcasting and KOL collaborations driving growth [183] Marketing Strategy - The company leverages Mao Geping's personal IP and professional makeup techniques to create viral marketing campaigns, such as the collaboration with fashion blogger "Late Night Teacher Xu" in 2019 [189] - The brand has established a strong presence on social media platforms, with 909k followers on Bilibili, 895k on Xiaohongshu, and 668.9k on Tmall flagship store [190] - The company emphasizes educational content, providing free makeup tutorials and professional makeup services to enhance customer experience and drive conversions [184] Industry Trends - The facial makeup market in China reached 31.2 billion yuan in 2023, accounting for over 50% of the total makeup market, with an expected CAGR of 8.4% from 2023 to 2028 [43][119] - Domestic brands are gaining market share in base makeup categories, with makeup artist IP brands like Mao Geping and Caitang showing strong growth [122][123] - The skincare market is shifting towards premiumization, with high-end products like the Fish Roe Mask meeting the demand for luxury skincare alternatives [157]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, MAOGEPING [1]. Core Insights - MAOGEPING is a leading domestic high-end beauty brand with a strong financial performance, achieving a revenue of 2.89 billion yuan and a net profit of 660 million yuan in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 35% over three years [4][21]. - The brand leverages the founder's reputation, experiential marketing, and high product quality to create a competitive moat, with over 80% of revenue coming from loyal members [4][30]. - The company is expected to maintain strong growth driven by product expansion and channel development, with projected net profits of 910 million yuan, 1.2 billion yuan, and 1.54 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026 [4][145]. Company Overview - MAOGEPING was established in 2000 and is known for its high-end positioning in the beauty market, focusing on both makeup and skincare products [4][10]. - The company has a concentrated ownership structure, with the founder and family holding a significant portion of shares, ensuring stable management [12][16]. Financial Analysis - The company has maintained a high gross margin of approximately 84.8% and a net profit margin of around 23% in 2023, reflecting its strong pricing power and operational efficiency [21][27]. - Revenue and net profit for the first half of 2024 are projected to grow by 41% year-on-year, indicating robust growth momentum [21][145]. Business Analysis - The product mix is heavily weighted towards makeup, with skincare products increasing to 40% of total revenue in 2023, showcasing a successful diversification strategy [30][31]. - The company has a dual-channel strategy, with both offline counters and online sales contributing to its growth, and online sales are expected to continue rising [49][51]. Growth Drivers - The company plans to expand its offline presence by opening approximately 30 new counters annually, while also enhancing its online penetration through platforms like Tmall and Douyin [4][120]. - MAOGEPING aims to introduce new products across various categories, including color cosmetics and skincare, to capture a larger market share [4][137]. Market Analysis - The beauty industry, particularly the makeup segment, is experiencing high growth potential, with domestic brands gaining market share against international competitors [70][80]. - The report highlights the increasing consumer demand for high-end beauty products, driven by changing consumer preferences and a growing middle class [70][78]. Membership and Loyalty - The company has implemented a tiered membership system that enhances customer loyalty, with high repurchase rates among premium members [108][116]. - The loyalty program has contributed significantly to revenue, with premium members accounting for over 80% of total sales [4][116]. Future Outlook - MAOGEPING is exploring international expansion opportunities, aiming to establish a presence in overseas markets while maintaining its high-end brand image [140][141]. - The company is also focusing on product innovation and marketing strategies to enhance brand visibility and consumer engagement [4][137].