Core Viewpoint - The company, Mao Ge Ping, has proposed a restricted stock incentive plan aimed at enhancing its long-term incentive mechanism and aligning the interests of shareholders, the company, and management to promote sustainable development [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 670 million yuan, up 36.1% year-on-year [1] - For the third quarter of 2025, sales on various platforms showed significant growth, with Taobao, Douyin, and JD platforms reporting year-on-year increases of 25.4%, 55.6%, and 45.7% respectively [1] Group 2: Sales Performance During Promotions - In October, during the "Double Eleven" promotional period, sales on Taobao, Douyin, and JD platforms grew by 60.5%, 39.8%, and 22.3% year-on-year [2] - The brand entered the top 20 in the beauty category on Tmall for the first time, ranking 20th, and secured the 1st position in the domestic makeup category on JD [2] - Several key products performed exceptionally well, with annual sales exceeding 200,000 for the Xiaojin Fan powder and over 100,000 for the Caviar Cushion Foundation and Caviar Mask [2] Group 3: Strategic Positioning and Future Outlook - The company is reinforcing its high-end beauty positioning, with strong growth in main categories and channels [2] - The product range is expanding into fragrances, with new series launched to enhance the product matrix [2] - The company maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027, projecting net profits of 1.21 billion, 1.58 billion, and 2.04 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 2.46, 3.22, and 4.16 yuan, and a "buy" rating is upheld [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Insights - The company has launched a restricted stock incentive plan to enhance its long-term development confidence and align the interests of shareholders, the company, and management [1] - The company's performance has been strong, with a 31.3% year-on-year increase in revenue to 2.59 billion yuan and a 36.1% increase in net profit to 670 million yuan in the first half of 2025 [2] - The company is focusing on high-end beauty positioning, expanding its product range into fragrances, and has seen significant growth in both online and offline channels [3] Summary by Sections Company Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.59 billion yuan, a 31.3% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 670 million yuan, up 36.1% [2] - Sales on major platforms during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival showed strong growth, with year-on-year increases of 60.5% on Taobao, 39.8% on Douyin, and 22.3% on JD [2] Product and Market Strategy - The company is enhancing its high-end beauty positioning and has expanded its product categories to include fragrances, with successful product launches in various high-end department stores [3] - The product matrix has been enriched with new series such as Guo Yun Ning Xiang and Wen Dao Dong Fang [3] Financial Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 1.21 billion yuan, 1.58 billion yuan, and 2.04 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.46 yuan, 3.22 yuan, and 4.16 yuan [3][10] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 34, 26, and 20 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][10]

Core Insights - The high-end beauty industry has experienced significant growth over the past decade, with the overall beauty market reaching $124 billion and high-end categories showing strong compound annual growth rates: fragrances at 7%, skincare at 5%, and hair care at 4% [2][3] - The next decade is expected to be different, with growth slowing as high-end beauty's share of consumer spending stabilizes and competition intensifies [4] Consumer Behavior - Nearly 46% of surveyed consumers plan to reduce discretionary spending, yet beauty expenditures are often prioritized due to their emotional value [5] - Five consumer archetypes have been identified: Minimalist Rationalists, Habitual Loyalists, Balanced Aesthetes, High-End Purists, and Confident Trendsetters, each with distinct spending habits and motivations [6] Loyalty and Expectations - Brand loyalty is shifting from emotional attachment to rational choices based on product efficacy and value, with 48% of consumers prioritizing product quality over brand heritage [8][10] - The rise of "value-for-money" culture indicates that price and efficacy have surpassed traditional brand loyalty, with 56% of consumers having tried alternative products that they believe perform equally well [10] Efficacy and Innovation - Efficacy is now a baseline expectation rather than a differentiating factor, with 85% of respondents considering high-quality ingredients important [13] - Consumers express dissatisfaction with product efficacy across categories, particularly in hair care (39% dissatisfied) and skincare (36% dissatisfied) [15] Health and Self-Identity - Consumers expect beauty products to enhance not only appearance but also mental and physical well-being, with health being a key attribute of beauty products [21][23] - For younger generations, beauty serves as a means of self-expression and identity, with over 52% of Gen Z respondents viewing beauty as a crucial aspect of their self-identity [25] Channel Dynamics - Amazon has emerged as a dominant player in beauty shopping, leading in discovery, research, purchase, and repurchase stages [27] - Consumers evaluate beauty shopping channels based on four core pillars: curation, community, convenience, and experience [31] Strategic Implications for Brands - Brands must redefine loyalty by focusing on effective products and quality platform experiences, emphasizing scientific validation and innovation [12][20] - To remain relevant, brands should integrate health and self-expression into their narratives while ensuring a seamless experience across all channels [26][38]

Summary of Water Sheep Co. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Water Sheep Co. (水羊股份) - **Industry**: High-end beauty and skincare Key Points and Arguments 1. **Strategic Transformation**: Water Sheep Co. is undergoing a strategic transformation focusing on high-end brands, leveraging e-commerce and digitalization to enhance operational efficiency and brand positioning [2][6][9] 2. **High-end Brand Matrix**: The company has developed a high-end brand matrix, which includes brands like Yufei Dan (伊菲丹), PA, and Revive, aiming for a global luxury beauty transformation [2][9] 3. **Market Trends**: The high-end beauty market in China is characterized by a shift towards scientific skincare concepts, with a growing consumer base among affluent women, providing significant growth opportunities for niche high-end brands [3][5] 4. **Performance Expectations**: For 2025, the company anticipates significant profit recovery and growth, with high-end brands expected to contribute over 1.5 billion RMB in revenue [3][27] 5. **Brand Contributions**: Yufei Dan's core products, including super masks and CP combinations, contribute 60%-70% of overall revenue, indicating strong market demand and brand positioning [10] 6. **International Expansion**: The Revive brand, with products priced between 2,000 RMB and over 10,000 RMB, has seen significant sales growth, achieving over 10 million RMB in GMV in the first half of 2025 [4][20] 7. **Resource Allocation**: Starting in 2024, resources will be concentrated on high-end brands, with a reduction in support for mass-market skincare products [9][11] 8. **PA Brand Strategy**: PA focuses on the unique HP DNA repair component, targeting younger consumers with a need for effective and quick skincare solutions [15][17] 9. **Sales Growth**: The company has reported substantial growth in its brands, with PA experiencing over 200% growth and Yufei Dan maintaining a doubling growth rate [27] 10. **Operational Adjustments**: The company is adjusting its operational strategies to enhance profitability, including reducing reliance on influencer marketing and focusing on sustainable growth [14][26] Additional Important Insights 1. **Consumer Insights**: The company emphasizes the importance of consumer insights and rapid product iteration as key drivers of market share in the domestic beauty sector [5] 2. **Brand Positioning**: Yufei Dan differentiates itself through a narrative of French skincare experience and aristocratic storytelling, which has resonated well with consumers [7][8] 3. **Market Challenges**: The company has faced challenges due to adjustments in Johnson & Johnson's business, but has successfully diversified its partnerships to mitigate risks [26] 4. **Future Plans**: Water Sheep Co. plans to open 50 stores in China over the next three years, enhancing its offline presence and brand visibility [11][12] This summary encapsulates the key insights and strategic directions discussed during the conference call, highlighting the company's focus on high-end beauty brands and its growth trajectory in the competitive market.

Core Viewpoint - Huaxin Securities predicts that Mao Geping (01318) will achieve revenues of 50.83 billion, 64.98 billion, and 82.45 billion RMB for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding EPS of 2.36, 3.00, and 3.81 RMB, maintaining a "Buy" investment rating [1] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Mao Geping reported operating revenue of 25.88 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 31.3% [1] - The net profit for the same period was 6.70 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 36.1% [1] - The company's gross margin stood at 84.2%, while the net profit margin was 25.9%, indicating strong profitability [1] Business Segments - The main growth drivers for the company are the makeup and skincare segments, with makeup revenue reaching 14.22 billion RMB, up 31.1% year-on-year, and skincare revenue at 10.87 billion RMB, increasing by 33.4% [1] - Mao Geping has also expanded into the fragrance category, launching two high-end perfume series, "Guoyun Ningxiang" and "Wendao Dongfang," generating revenue of 11.41 million RMB [1] - Although revenue from the makeup artistry training business has declined, the company stated this was a strategic decision to enhance service quality by controlling enrollment size [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a significant growth in revenue and profit in H1 2025, with total revenue reaching 2.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.3%, and net profit attributable to the parent company at 670 million yuan, up 36.1% year-on-year [7] - The product matrix has been upgraded, leading to strong sales growth in both makeup and skincare segments, with makeup and skincare revenues growing by 31.1% and 33.4% respectively [7] - The company is recognized as a rare high-end beauty brand in China, with a unique beauty academy model and a professional makeup artist team enhancing the offline experience [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2023A, 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 2,886 million, 3,885 million, 5,151 million, 6,523 million, and 8,161 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 57.78%, 34.61%, 32.60%, 26.63%, and 25.12% [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 661.93 million, 880.61 million, 1,202.82 million, 1,523.81 million, and 1,908.32 million yuan for the same years, with year-on-year growth rates of 88.00%, 33.04%, 36.59%, 26.69%, and 25.23% [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2025E is projected at 2.45 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 34.88, 27.53, and 21.98 for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance for the first half of 2025, with significant revenue and profit growth driven by effective cost management and operational efficiency [1][5]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 2.59 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 31.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 670 million yuan, up 36.1% year-on-year [1]. - The net profit margin for H1 2025 was 25.9%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous year, attributed to ideal revenue growth and effective cost control [1]. Product and Channel Performance - Major product categories showed robust growth, with color cosmetics, skincare, and makeup training contributing 55%, 42%, and 2.6% to total revenue, respectively. The newly launched fragrance category accounted for 0.4% of total revenue [1]. - Online and offline channel revenues grew by 39% and 26.6%, respectively, with online direct sales and sales to online distributors making up 40.6% and 10.8% of total revenue [2]. Cost and Efficiency Metrics - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 84.2%, a slight decrease of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year. The gross margins for color cosmetics, skincare, fragrance, and makeup training were 82.7%, 87.5%, 77.6%, and 62.9%, respectively [3]. - The operating expense ratio decreased by 3.9 percentage points to 50.5%, with sales, management, and financial expense ratios showing respective declines [3]. Inventory and Cash Flow - Inventory increased by 23.9% year-on-year to 390 million yuan, with inventory turnover days improving to 156 days, a reduction of 42 days [3]. - Operating net cash flow reached 830 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.2% [3]. Brand and Market Positioning - The company continues to strengthen its high-end beauty positioning, launching new fragrance lines and enhancing its brand image through strategic store placements in premium retail locations [4]. - Membership numbers increased, with online and offline members reaching 13.4 million and 5.6 million, respectively, and the overall repurchase rate improved to 26.8% [4]. Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about maintaining its high-end beauty positioning and expects continued growth in both online and offline channels. Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted upward due to improved expense ratios [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved a robust performance in the first half of 2025, with revenue and net profit increasing by 31.3% and 36.1% year-on-year, respectively [4] - The introduction of new fragrance products has further strengthened the company's high-end beauty positioning [8] - The company has successfully improved its operational efficiency, leading to a significant decrease in expense ratios [6][9] - The online and offline channels have both shown strong growth, with online sales increasing by 39% and offline sales by 26.6% [5] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.59 billion yuan and a net profit of 670 million yuan, with an earnings per share (EPS) of 1.37 yuan [4] - The gross profit margin slightly decreased to 84.2%, while the net profit margin improved to 25.9% [6] - The company’s operating cash flow reached 830 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.2% [7] Product and Channel Analysis - The revenue breakdown for the first half of 2025 shows that color cosmetics, skincare, fragrance, and makeup artistry training contributed 55%, 42%, 0.4%, and 2.6% to total revenue, respectively [5] - The company has expanded its offline presence with 405 self-operated counters and 32 distributor counters, marking a net increase of 27 and 1, respectively [5] Future Outlook - The company expects continued high-quality growth, with revised net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 set at 1.21 billion, 1.58 billion, and 2.04 billion yuan, respectively [9] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 36 for 2025, indicating a favorable valuation [9]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an OUTPERFORM rating for Mao Geping Cosmetics, with a target price of HK$124.50, indicating a potential upside of 26.4% from the current price of HK$95.70 [2][7]. Core Insights - Mao Geping is positioned as a high-end beauty brand in China, ranking 4th in the color cosmetics market with a market share of 3.7% as of 2024. The brand's primary revenue source is color cosmetics, accounting for approximately 60% of total product revenue [3][20]. - The company has shown strong revenue growth, with a projected revenue of RMB 5.19 billion for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 34% [7]. - Mao Geping's product sales are primarily driven by offline channels, with online sales growing rapidly, accounting for 48% of total revenue in 2024 [24][34]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Mao Geping Cosmetics was founded by renowned makeup artist Mao Geping, who has over 30 years of experience in the industry. The brand is known for its high-quality products and strong cultural heritage [9][10]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of RMB 3.885 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 34.6%. The net profit for the same year was RMB 881 million, also reflecting a growth of 33% [7][20]. - The gross profit margin has remained stable at around 84%, with a slight decrease to 84.4% in 2024 [7][27]. Product and Market Positioning - Mao Geping's product range includes approximately 400 SKUs, with color cosmetics making up about 350 SKUs. The brand faces limited pricing power in the high-end market but has significant room for growth in SKU offerings [4][6]. - The average selling price for color cosmetics is below RMB 180, while skincare products have a higher average price of RMB 312 [20]. Sales Channels - The company primarily utilizes high-end department stores for offline sales, with a focus on providing a premium customer experience through well-trained beauty advisors. As of 2024, Mao Geping has over 409 counters across more than 120 cities in China [3][29]. - Online sales have been increasing rapidly, with a year-on-year growth of 51.2% in 2024, driven by enhanced marketing efforts on e-commerce platforms [24][34]. Customer Engagement - The company has seen a significant increase in membership, with a total of 1.51 million members as of 2024, representing a 46.6% year-on-year growth. The overall repurchase rate improved from 26.8% to 30.9% [39][40].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [2][17]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 665-675 million RMB in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 35%-37%, slightly exceeding expectations. The net profit margin continues to improve, indicating strong brand power and robust growth across categories and channels [3][9]. - The company has shown a significant increase in revenue, with a projected total revenue of 5.18 billion RMB for 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 33.3% compared to the previous year [6][10]. - The company has successfully expanded its online presence, with a reported growth of over 70% during the 618 shopping festival, making it one of the fastest-growing brands [9][10]. - The launch of the "Wen Dao Dong Fang" perfume series marks the company's entry into the fragrance category, aiming to leverage its brand influence and product quality to capture market share in high-end beauty [9][10]. Financial Summary - The projected financials for the company are as follows: - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 5,180 million RMB, with a growth rate of 33.3% [6]. - Gross profit is expected to reach 4,374 million RMB, with a gross margin of approximately 84.44% [10]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1,189 million RMB for 2025, reflecting a growth of 35.1% [6][10]. - The company maintains a strong financial position with a projected PE ratio of 37.62 for 2025 and a PB ratio of 9.53 [6][10].