Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned as a high-end beauty brand in China, leveraging its founder's expertise in Eastern aesthetics and professional quality to create a competitive edge in the cosmetics market [5][6]. - The company has shown significant revenue growth, with projected revenues reaching 3.885 billion yuan in 2024, up 34.6% year-on-year, and net profits expected to hit 881 million yuan, reflecting an 88% increase [4][6]. - The brand's strong market presence is supported by a family-run business model, extensive experience in the beauty industry, and effective marketing strategies that resonate with younger consumers [5][6][25]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The Chinese cosmetics market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8.4% from 2023 to 2028, reaching 175.2 billion yuan by 2028 [10]. 2. Company Profile - Founded in 2000, the company has established itself as a leader in high-end domestic cosmetics, with a focus on integrating art and product development [5][14]. - The company operates under a family business model, with significant ownership held by the founder and family members, ensuring a cohesive strategic direction [22][24]. 3. Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of 2.886 billion yuan in 2023, with a projected increase to 3.885 billion yuan in 2024, and net profits expected to rise from 662 million yuan to 881 million yuan in the same period [4][6][26]. - The gross margin remains high, with cosmetic products achieving over 80% gross margin, indicating strong profitability compared to peers [29][30]. 4. Brand Development and Marketing - The brand has successfully built a strong identity through collaborations with cultural institutions and participation in major events, enhancing its market positioning [36][37]. - The company has expanded its online presence significantly, with online sales accounting for 47.8% of total revenue in 2024, reflecting a strategic shift towards digital marketing [5][6][9]. 5. Product and Channel Expansion - The company has diversified its product offerings, with color cosmetics generating 2.304 billion yuan in sales in 2024, and skincare products contributing 1.429 billion yuan [5][6]. - The company continues to explore new product categories, including the introduction of a fragrance line in 2025, which is expected to drive future growth [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - 毛戈平 is positioned as a high-end beauty brand in China, with a focus on offline high-end department store channels, holding a 3.7% market share in the Chinese color cosmetics market in 2024, ranking 6th overall and 4th among brands [1] Sales and Revenue - In 2024, 毛戈平's total revenue is projected to be 3.88 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 34.6% [5] - The revenue from offline channels slightly exceeds 50%, reaching 1.949 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 21.6% [1] - Online sales are rapidly growing, with an expected revenue share of 48% in 2024 [1] Product Composition - Color cosmetics account for approximately 60% of 毛戈平's revenue, while skincare products make up about 40% [1] - The company has around 400 SKUs in total, with approximately 350 in color cosmetics and 50 in skincare [3] Market Position and Competition - 毛戈平's market share in the color cosmetics sector is 3.7%, surpassing brands like Nars, Mac, and Bobbi Brown [3] - The brand's pricing strategy is aligned with high-end brands like Chanel and Dior, but it faces limited room for price increases [3] Customer Engagement - 毛戈平's membership base grew by 46.6% in 2024, reaching 1.51 million members, indicating improved customer loyalty [2] - The offline member repurchase rate is 34.9%, higher than the online rate of 27.5%, with an overall repurchase rate increasing from 26.8% to 30.9% [2] Future Projections - 毛戈平's operating profit and net profit attributable to shareholders are expected to continue growing, with projected revenues of 5.19 billion yuan, 6.66 billion yuan, and 8.36 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with growth rates of 34%, 28%, and 26% respectively [5][6] - The gross profit margin is expected to remain stable around 84% through 2027 [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The company is a leading high-end beauty group in China, demonstrating strong revenue growth and high profitability, with a projected revenue increase to 3.88 billion yuan by 2024 and a CAGR of 35.0% from 2021 to 2024 [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Founded in 2000 by renowned makeup artist Mao Geping, the company owns two major beauty brands, MGP and Zhi Ai Zhong Sheng, along with a makeup training business [1] - MGP is the only domestic brand among the top fifteen high-end beauty brands in the Chinese market [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - Revenue is expected to reach 3.88 billion yuan by 2024, with a CAGR of 35.0% from 2021 to 2024 [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to increase to 880 million yuan by 2024, with a CAGR of 38.6% [1] - The gross margin is forecasted to be 84.4% and the net profit margin is expected to be 22.7% in 2024 [1] Group 3: Brand Analysis - MGP's brand value has long-term growth potential, with increasing brand awareness through its unique Eastern characteristics [2] - The brand has established strong perception quality with significant sales in key products, such as over 400 million yuan in retail sales for the Light Sensation Powder and over 800 million yuan for the Luxury Caviar Mask in 2024 [2] - The brand's loyalty is supported by a comprehensive membership system, with a total of 15.1 million registered members and a repurchase rate of 30.9% by the end of 2024 [2] Group 4: Growth Drivers - The company's growth is driven by product matrix expansion and systematic channel development [3] - The introduction of new product categories, such as perfume, is expected to enhance brand positioning and create new growth points [3] - The company is optimizing its offline stores in high-end shopping areas and enhancing online channel operations to achieve synergistic growth [3] Group 5: Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 5.15 billion, 6.68 billion, and 8.43 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 32.6%, 29.6%, and 26.2% respectively [4] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 1.19 billion, 1.55 billion, and 1.99 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 34.6%, 30.7%, and 28.2% respectively [4] - The estimated PE ratio for 2026 is 27.5X, indicating a reasonable valuation considering the brand's competitive advantages and growth potential [4]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Insights - The company is recognized as a leading high-end beauty group in China, with strong revenue growth and high profitability [1][4] - The brand MGP is the only domestic brand among the top fifteen high-end beauty brands in China, indicating a unique market position [1][33] - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth driven by product matrix expansion and systematic channel development [4] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company was founded in 2000 by renowned makeup artist Mao Geping and operates two major beauty brands, MGP and "Zhi Ai Zhong Sheng," along with makeup training services [13][16] - The company has shown impressive revenue growth from 1.58 billion RMB in 2021 to 3.88 billion RMB in 2024, with a CAGR of 35.0% [17][1] Brand Value - The brand value of MGP is expected to continue to rise, supported by its unique positioning and strong consumer recognition [2][33] - MGP has established a solid reputation in the market, with flagship products achieving significant sales, such as the "Light and Shadow" powder series and luxury caviar masks [2][35] Growth Drivers - The company's growth is primarily driven by the expansion of its product matrix and the establishment of a systematic channel strategy [3][4] - The product range includes makeup, skincare, and upcoming fragrance lines, with a focus on high-quality offerings tailored to Chinese consumers [3][20] Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 5.15 billion, 6.68 billion, and 8.43 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 32.6%, 29.6%, and 26.2% [4][5] - The company is expected to maintain high profitability, with a gross margin of 84.4% and a net profit margin of 22.7% in 2024 [1][4]

MAO GEPING COSMETICS CO., LTD. 毛戈平化妝品股份有限公司 （於 中 華 人 民 共 和 國 註 冊 成 立 的 股 份 有 限 公 司） 香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內 容 概 不 負 責，對 其 準 確 性 或 完 整 性 亦 不 發 表 任 何 聲 明，並 明 確 表 示，概 不對因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的 任 何 損 失 承 擔 任 何 責 任。 （股 份 代 號:1318） 董事會會議日期 毛 戈 平 化 妝 品 股 份 有 限 公 司（「本公司」）董 事 會（「董事會」）謹 此 宣 佈，將 於 2025年8月27日（星 期 三）舉 行 董 事 會 會 議，以（其 中 包 括）考 慮 及 批 准 本 公 司及其附屬公司截至2025年6月30日 止 六 個 月 的 中 期 業 績 及 其 發 佈，並 考 慮 有 關 派 付 中 期 股 息 的 建 議（如 有）。 承董事會命 毛戈平化妝品股份有限公司 董事長兼執行董事 毛戈平 香 港 2025年8月15日 截 至 本 公 告 日 期，本 公 司 董 事 會 包 括： ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an OUTPERFORM rating for Mao Geping Cosmetics, with a target price of HK$124.50, indicating a potential upside of 26.4% from the current price of HK$95.70 [2][7]. Core Insights - Mao Geping is positioned as a high-end beauty brand in China, ranking 4th in the color cosmetics market with a market share of 3.7% as of 2024. The brand's primary revenue source is color cosmetics, accounting for approximately 60% of total product revenue [3][20]. - The company has shown strong revenue growth, with a projected revenue of RMB 5.19 billion for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 34% [7]. - Mao Geping's product sales are primarily driven by offline channels, with online sales growing rapidly, accounting for 48% of total revenue in 2024 [24][34]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Mao Geping Cosmetics was founded by renowned makeup artist Mao Geping, who has over 30 years of experience in the industry. The brand is known for its high-quality products and strong cultural heritage [9][10]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of RMB 3.885 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 34.6%. The net profit for the same year was RMB 881 million, also reflecting a growth of 33% [7][20]. - The gross profit margin has remained stable at around 84%, with a slight decrease to 84.4% in 2024 [7][27]. Product and Market Positioning - Mao Geping's product range includes approximately 400 SKUs, with color cosmetics making up about 350 SKUs. The brand faces limited pricing power in the high-end market but has significant room for growth in SKU offerings [4][6]. - The average selling price for color cosmetics is below RMB 180, while skincare products have a higher average price of RMB 312 [20]. Sales Channels - The company primarily utilizes high-end department stores for offline sales, with a focus on providing a premium customer experience through well-trained beauty advisors. As of 2024, Mao Geping has over 409 counters across more than 120 cities in China [3][29]. - Online sales have been increasing rapidly, with a year-on-year growth of 51.2% in 2024, driven by enhanced marketing efforts on e-commerce platforms [24][34]. Customer Engagement - The company has seen a significant increase in membership, with a total of 1.51 million members as of 2024, representing a 46.6% year-on-year growth. The overall repurchase rate improved from 26.8% to 30.9% [39][40].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [2][17]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 665-675 million RMB in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 35%-37%, slightly exceeding expectations. The net profit margin continues to improve, indicating strong brand power and robust growth across categories and channels [3][9]. - The company has shown a significant increase in revenue, with a projected total revenue of 5.18 billion RMB for 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 33.3% compared to the previous year [6][10]. - The company has successfully expanded its online presence, with a reported growth of over 70% during the 618 shopping festival, making it one of the fastest-growing brands [9][10]. - The launch of the "Wen Dao Dong Fang" perfume series marks the company's entry into the fragrance category, aiming to leverage its brand influence and product quality to capture market share in high-end beauty [9][10]. Financial Summary - The projected financials for the company are as follows: - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 5,180 million RMB, with a growth rate of 33.3% [6]. - Gross profit is expected to reach 4,374 million RMB, with a gross margin of approximately 84.44% [10]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1,189 million RMB for 2025, reflecting a growth of 35.1% [6][10]. - The company maintains a strong financial position with a projected PE ratio of 37.62 for 2025 and a PB ratio of 9.53 [6][10].

Summary of the Conference Call for Mao Geping Company Industry and Company Overview - The conference call pertains to Mao Geping Company, a player in the cosmetics and skincare industry in China. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Financial Performance**: Mao Geping Company expects an annual profit of approximately 1.26 billion yuan, representing a 43% growth, with revenue meeting expectations and profit exceeding them. The second half of the year is anticipated to see strong performance from new skincare products and a favorable operational rhythm for the Double Eleven shopping festival, potentially leading to an upward revision of performance expectations [2][4]. 2. **New Product Launches**: In 2025, the company introduced several new products including: - Skin clothing priced at 360 yuan - Air lip glaze 807 priced near 300 yuan - A fragrance series with 13 SKUs priced at 570 yuan - A bare-faced firming eye cream priced at 520 yuan The market response has been positive, with significant sales achieved during live broadcasts [2][5]. 3. **Makeup Product Performance**: The skin clothing product has shown better coverage than CPB's primer and is available in different versions. The air lip glaze 807 has supplemented popular shades, achieving sales in the tens of millions of yuan [2][7]. 4. **Fragrance Market Entry**: The fragrance series, including popular items like Doumou and Kongshan, has seen higher offline sales compared to online, with overall sales reaching tens of millions of yuan. This marks a significant entry of domestic cosmetics companies into the fragrance market, with expectations for annual GMV potentially reaching hundreds of millions [2][8]. 5. **Skincare Product Features**: The bare-faced firming eye cream, priced at 520 yuan, focuses on tightening eye wrinkles and reducing dark circles, showcasing seven measurable improvement effects. This indicates Mao Geping's exploration into the high-end skincare market [2][10]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Future Growth Factors**: Key factors for future growth include the impact of Double Eleven pre-sale data and the promotional efforts for new skincare products in the second half of the year. If these products gain online recognition, it will enhance the company's ability to extend its skincare line and improve online marketing capabilities [3][11]. 2. **Product Diversification**: The company is expected to explore diverse product offerings, such as home fragrance candles, which may become new growth points [3][11]. 3. **Sales Performance Metrics**: For the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue between 2.57 billion to 2.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 30.4% to 31.9%, and a net profit of 665 million to 675 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 35% to 37% [4]. This comprehensive summary captures the essential insights from the conference call regarding Mao Geping Company's performance, product launches, and future growth strategies.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][7] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of RMB 25.7 billion to RMB 26.0 billion in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 30.4% to 31.9%. The net profit is projected to be between RMB 6.65 billion and RMB 6.75 billion, indicating a year-on-year increase of 35.0% to 37.0% [2] - The company's strong performance is driven by its high-end brand strategy, which has led to increased consumer recognition and value creation through high-quality products and services [3] - The launch of the "Wen Dao Dong Fang" perfume series is expected to create new growth points, targeting the light luxury market with a price range of RMB 500 to 800, differentiating itself from both international brands and lower-priced domestic products [4][5] - The company is positioned as a rare high-end domestic beauty brand with strong pricing power, supported by a robust brand moat and ongoing expansion into high-end retail channels [5][6] Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenues of RMB 50.54 billion, RMB 65.03 billion, and RMB 82.58 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of RMB 11.85 billion, RMB 15.06 billion, and RMB 19.18 billion for the same years [6][9] - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for net profit from 2024 to 2027 is projected at 29.6%, with earnings per share expected to be RMB 2.42, RMB 3.07, and RMB 3.91 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6][9] - The company maintains a gross margin of approximately 84% across the forecast period, indicating strong profitability [9][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the next six months [4][5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of approximately 25.7 to 26.0 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 30.4% to 31.9%. The net profit is projected to be between 6.65 billion and 6.75 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 35.0% to 37.0% [4][5]. - The company is positioned as a leading player in the high-end domestic cosmetics market, demonstrating strong resilience in profitability and growth potential [4][5]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 2,886 million RMB - 2024: 3,885 million RMB - 2025E: 5,173 million RMB - 2026E: 6,852 million RMB - 2027E: 8,533 million RMB - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected at 58% for 2023, 35% for 2024, and gradually decreasing to 25% by 2027 [4][5]. - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 662 million RMB - 2024: 881 million RMB - 2025E: 1,184 million RMB - 2026E: 1,542 million RMB - 2027E: 1,953 million RMB - The net profit growth rates are expected to be 88% for 2023, 33% for 2024, and stabilizing around 27% by 2027 [4][5]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company has established a strong market position, ranking second among all brands and first among domestic brands in the top 20 cosmetics list for the first half of 2025, achieving a transaction volume of 12 billion RMB with a growth rate exceeding 30% [4][5]. - The company’s unique positioning in the high-end market, combined with product innovation and channel optimization, enhances its competitive edge and long-term growth potential [4][5].