Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 127.89 HKD [6][4]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 25.7-26.0 billion RMB in 25H1, representing a year-on-year growth of 30.4%-31.9%, and a net profit of approximately 6.65-6.75 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 35%-37% [1]. - The growth is attributed to the company's commitment to creating value for consumers and the increasing recognition of its brand as a high-end product, which is driving long-term business growth [1]. - The company is experiencing rapid growth in its foundation makeup, color cosmetics, and skincare categories, while the fragrance category is expected to provide new growth opportunities in the long term [1]. Online Performance - In 1H25, the company's GMV on Douyin reached 7.87 billion RMB, up 50% year-on-year, while GMV on Taobao and JD.com increased by 44% and 77% respectively, leading to a total GMV of approximately 14.4 billion RMB, also up 50% year-on-year [2]. - The strong growth in the color cosmetics segment, particularly in products like powder and cushion foundations, is helping the brand expand its market presence [2]. Offline Expansion - The company continues to expand its presence in high-end shopping malls, successfully entering locations such as Beijing SKP and upgrading its flagship store in Hangzhou [3]. - The company is also steadily expanding its stores in second and third-tier cities, with improvements in single-store efficiency noted since March [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 11.75 billion RMB, 15.33 billion RMB, and 19.17 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.40, 3.13, and 3.91 RMB [4]. - The report assigns a PE ratio of 38 times for 2026, maintaining the target price at 127.89 HKD, which reflects the company's strong product potential and sustained revenue growth across both online and offline channels [4].

Summary of Mao Geping Cosmetics Co. (1318.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Mao Geping Cosmetics Co. (1318.HK) - **Market Cap**: HK$48.1 billion / $6.1 billion - **Current Price**: HK$98.15 - **12-Month Price Target**: HK$86.00, indicating a downside of 12.4% [9] Key Financial Highlights - **1H25 Profit Alert**: - **Net Income (NI)**: Expected to be between RMB665-675 million, representing a year-over-year increase of 35-37%, with a midpoint of RMB670 million, up 36% year-over-year, aligning with Goldman Sachs estimates of RMB666 million [1] - **Sales**: Expected to be between RMB2,570-2,600 million, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 30-32%, which is weaker than Goldman Sachs' estimate of RMB2,647 million at 34% year-over-year growth [1] - **Net Profit Margin (NPM)**: Expected to expand by 0.9-1.0 percentage points to 25.9%-26.0%, above Goldman Sachs' estimate of 25.1% [1] Market Concerns - **Sales Performance**: The weaker sales in 1H25 may indicate slower than expected growth in the skincare segment, which could impact the company's structural upside, as the color makeup business has limited growth potential [2] - **Brand Recognition**: Despite concerns, the market acknowledges MGP's niche brand premium, evidenced by better-than-expected NPM and healthy offline growth estimated at over 20% due to accelerated store expansion in high-end commercial districts in Tier 1 cities [2] Focus Areas for Upcoming Results - **Sales and Margin Details**: Breakdown of sales growth by skincare and color cosmetics, as well as online versus offline performance [3] - **2025 Outlook**: Expectations for the full year 2025 [3] - **Double 11 Strategies**: Plans regarding discounts, product offerings, channels, and KOL collaborations [3] - **Skincare Strategy**: Expansion plans for the skincare category and online channels [3] - **Fragrance Line Performance**: Updates on the performance of the fragrance line and new product pipelines [3] Investment Rating - **Current Rating**: Neutral [4] Valuation Methodology - **Target Price Methodology**: Based on a 25x 2027E PE, discounted back to mid-2026E at an 8.9% cost of equity [5] Risks and Considerations - **Key Risks**: - Variability in beauty consumption penetration in China - Online penetration rates - Development of new star SKUs, particularly in skincare - ROI on expanding consumer base into higher-tier markets and online channels - Key person risk [8] Financial Projections - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2024: RMB3,884.7 million - 2025E: RMB5,136.9 million - 2026E: RMB6,524.6 million - 2027E: RMB7,925.4 million [9] Conclusion Mao Geping Cosmetics Co. is facing challenges with weaker sales in the first half of 2025, raising concerns about growth in the skincare segment. However, the company maintains a strong net profit margin and brand recognition. The upcoming results will be critical in assessing the company's strategies and outlook for the remainder of the year.

Core Viewpoint - The company, 毛戈平, anticipates significant revenue and profit growth for the upcoming six months, driven by its strong brand recognition and commitment to consumer value [1] Financial Performance - The company expects to achieve revenue between RMB 25.7 billion and RMB 26.0 billion for the six months ending June 30, 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 30.4% to 31.9% [1] - The projected net profit is estimated to be between RMB 6.65 billion and RMB 6.75 billion, indicating a year-on-year increase of 35.0% to 37.0% [1] Business Strategy - The growth in performance is attributed to the company's operational philosophy of "creating value for consumers," which focuses on providing high-quality products and services to beauty enthusiasts [1] - The increasing recognition of 毛戈平 as a high-end brand is translating into long-term business growth momentum for the company [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Mao Geping (01318.HK) anticipates a mid-term net profit growth of 35.0% to 37.0% for the six months ending June 30, 2025, with expected revenue between RMB 25.7 billion and RMB 26.0 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 30.4% to 31.9% [1] - The board attributes the growth in performance to the company's commitment to creating value for consumers, providing high-quality products and services, and enhancing brand recognition as a high-end brand, which translates into long-term business growth [1] Group 2 - China Unicom (00762.HK) reported a revenue exceeding RMB 200 billion for the first half of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.5% [2] - Tencent Music-SW (01698.HK) showed steady growth in both revenue and profit in the second quarter, with an increase in the number of paying users and average revenue per paying user [2] - Wan Zhou International (00288.HK) reported a mid-term operating profit increase of 10.4% to USD 1.259 billion [2] - FIT HON TENG (06088.HK) achieved mid-term revenue of USD 2.305 billion, marking an 11.5% year-on-year increase [2] - Shanghai Industrial Environment (00807.HK) reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 344 million for the first half of the year, a 7.1% increase compared to the previous year [2]

集团业绩增长的主要原因是：公司始终秉持"为消费者创造价值"的经营理念，持续为美妆爱好者提供高 品质的产品和服务，从而建立了有竞争力的品牌价值。消费者对毛戈平作为高端品牌认可度的提升，正 持续转化为集团业务增长的长期动能，促使集团整体业绩保持稳健增长。 智通财经APP讯，毛戈平(01318)发布公告，预期集团于截至2025年6月30日止的6个月内实现收入约人民 币25.7亿元至人民币26.0亿元，较上年同期增长30.4%至31.9%，实现净利润约人民币6.65亿元至人民币 6.75亿元，较上年同期增长35.0%至37.0%。 ...

格隆汇8月12日丨毛戈平(01318.HK)公告，公司预期截至2025年6月30日止的六个月内实现收入约人民币 25.7亿元至人民币26.0亿元，较上年同期增长30.4%至31.9%，实现净利润约人民币6.65亿元至人民币 6.75亿元，较上年同期增长35.0%至37.0%。 董事会认为集团业绩增长的主要原因是：公司始终秉持「为消费者创造价值」的经营理念，持续为美妆 爱好者提供高品质的产品和服务，从而建立了有竞争力的品牌价值。消费者对毛戈平作为高端品牌认可 度的提升，正持续转化为集团业务增长的长期动能，促使集团整体业绩保持稳健增长。 ...

毛戈平化妝品股份有限公司 香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內 容 概 不 負 責，對 其 準 確 性 或 完 整 性 亦 不 發 表 任 何 聲 明，並 明 確 表 示，概 不對因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的 任 何 損 失 承 擔 任 何 責 任。 MAO GEPING COSMETICS CO., LTD. 截 至 本 公 告 日 期，本 公 司 仍 在 落 實 本 集 團 截 至2025年6月30日止六個月 的 未 經 審 核 綜 合 中 期 業 績。本 公 告 所 載 資 料 僅 為 董 事 會 根 據 目 前 可 得 數 字 及 資 料 所 作 的 初 步 評 估，而 非 基 於 已 由 本 公 司 獨 立 核 數 師 審 核 或 審 閱 及 由 董 事 會 審 核 委 員 會 審 閱 的 任 何 數 字 或 資 料。本 集 團 於 截 至2025年6月30 日 止 六 個 月 的 實 際 業 績 可 能 有 別 於 本 公 告 所 載 的 資 料。股 東 及 潛 在 投 資 者應參閱及仔細閱讀本集團於 截 至2025年6月30日止六個月 的中期業 ...

Core Viewpoint - The new consumption sector in the Hong Kong stock market has shown significant growth, with several companies reporting positive earnings forecasts, contributing to the overall bullish trend in this segment [3][4][6]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Pop Mart (09992.HK) rose by 7.87%, while Shangmei Co. (02145.HK) increased by 7.34%, and Laopu Gold (06181.HK) saw a rise of 5.93% [1][2]. - The New Consumption Concept Index has recorded a year-to-date increase of 64.97%, outperforming the Hang Seng Index, which has risen by 24.18% [3]. Group 2: Earnings Forecasts - Shangmei Co. expects revenue for the first half of 2025 to be between 4.09 billion to 4.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 16.8% to 17.3%, with net profit projected to reach 540 million to 560 million yuan, an increase of 30.9% to 35.8% [3]. - Laopu Gold anticipates revenue of 12 billion to 12.5 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 241% to 255%, with net profit expected to be between 2.23 billion to 2.28 billion yuan, a growth of 279% to 288% [4]. - Pop Mart forecasts a revenue increase of no less than 200% and a profit increase of no less than 350% for the first half of 2025 [5]. Group 3: Market Trends and Sentiment - Investment firms are optimistic about the new consumption sector, noting a shift towards personalized and service-oriented consumption among residents [6]. - The Hong Kong consumption sector is seen as more aligned with current new consumption trends compared to the A-share market, indicating significant growth potential [6]. - Despite the current high valuations in the new consumption sector, the macro trend towards personalized and rational consumption remains intact, suggesting continued growth in related areas such as trendy toys, beauty care, and pet products [7][8].

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年7月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 毛戈平化妝品股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年8月6日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01318 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 261,842,300 | RMB | | 0.5 RMB | | 130,921,150 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | RMB | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 261,842,300 | RMB | | 0.5 RMB | | 130,921,150 | | 2. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 其他類 ...

Core Viewpoint - The beauty industry in China is experiencing a significant market reshuffle, with major brands consolidating their positions while smaller brands face survival challenges due to increasing operational costs and fierce competition [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, the total retail sales reached 24.55 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.0%. The cosmetics retail sales amounted to 229.1 billion yuan, with a growth of 2.9% [1]. - Despite the overall market growth, there is a stark contrast between the performance of large companies and smaller brands, leading to a concentration of market heat among top players [1]. Group 2: Brand Closures and Market Exit - Sa Sa International closed its last 18 offline stores in mainland China by June 30, marking its exit from the market after 20 years of operations [3]. - Over a dozen beauty brands have closed or exited the Chinese market in the first half of 2025, including well-known brands under major beauty groups, indicating that foreign brands are not guaranteed success in China [3][4]. - Amorepacific's high-end skincare brand "SIENU" and Innisfree have also closed their online stores, reflecting the declining influence of Korean wave culture and increasing operational challenges [3][4]. Group 3: Strategic Adjustments by Major Brands - Major beauty companies are streamlining their brand portfolios in response to intense market competition and rising operational costs, focusing resources on mature and popular brands while closing less efficient ones [5]. - Unilever's high-end skincare brand TATCHA has ceased operations on major e-commerce platforms, highlighting the challenges faced by even well-established brands [5]. Group 4: Capital Market Activity - Domestic beauty companies are increasingly seeking capital market opportunities, with several companies planning IPOs in 2025, including raw material suppliers and brand operators [7][8]. - Notable IPO activities include 毛戈平's successful listing in late 2024, which has inspired other domestic beauty brands to pursue similar paths [7][8]. - Industry experts believe that seeking capital market support is a strategic choice for the future development of domestic beauty companies [9].