Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3][7]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a rare "makeup artist IP," reshaping the high-end beauty ecosystem with a unique pricing strategy and personalized consultation services [3]. - The company achieved impressive sales performance during the "3·8" promotional event, ranking first in the makeup and fragrance category on Douyin with a GMV of 50-70 million yuan, reflecting a 7-place increase year-on-year [5]. - Following its inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, the company is expected to see a significant increase in liquidity, benefiting from both southbound capital and passive index fund investments [6]. - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at 38.44 billion, 50.83 billion, and 63.98 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.77, 2.36, and 2.98 yuan [7][10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The brand founder, Mao Geping, is a prominent figure in the makeup aesthetics field, leveraging his influence to enhance brand recognition and market positioning [3]. Market Performance - The company has shown strong online sales performance, with effective promotional strategies such as live streaming expected to further boost its growth [5]. Financial Projections - The company anticipates significant revenue growth, with a projected increase of 57.8% in 2023, followed by growth rates of 33.2%, 32.2%, and 25.9% in the subsequent years [10]. - The net profit is expected to grow from 662 million yuan in 2023 to 1.458 billion yuan by 2026, indicating a robust growth trajectory [10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3][7]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a rare "makeup artist IP," reshaping the high-end beauty ecosystem with a unique pricing strategy and personalized consultation services [3]. - The sales performance during the "3·8" promotional event was impressive, with significant online sales growth, particularly on platforms like Douyin and Tmall [5][6]. - The inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect is expected to enhance liquidity and attract capital, aligning with the new consumption trends in the market [6]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected at 38.44 billion, 50.83 billion, and 63.98 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.77, 2.36, and 2.98 yuan [7][10]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with revenue growth rates of 33.2%, 32.2%, and 25.9% for the next three years [10]. - The projected net profit for the same years is 868 million, 1.155 billion, and 1.458 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 31.2%, 33.1%, and 26.2% [10].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [11]. Core Viewpoints - The rapid development of the Mao Geping brand since 2019 is attributed to the favorable high-end makeup market, the return of national aesthetics, the classic brand philosophy, the unique status of the founder, and high-quality products, creating significant entry barriers [3][6][30]. - The company is expected to benefit from the classic nature of its brand philosophy, the rarity of its founder's assets, and the meticulous development of its products, successfully capturing the opportunities presented by the high-end makeup trend and the return to local aesthetics in China [9][23]. Summary by Relevant Sections Brand - The Mao Geping brand has rapidly developed due to the high-end makeup market's growth and the resurgence of national aesthetics, creating a strong brand asset with high scarcity [6][15]. - The brand's classic philosophy and the founder's unique industry position contribute to its high public recognition and self-propagation attributes [23][26]. Products - The company is expanding its product lines, including color cosmetics, skincare, and fragrance, with clear growth logic in each category [7][30]. - The color cosmetics segment is transitioning from niche professional products to more mainstream offerings, with a rich reserve of potential single products [33][41]. - The skincare line is being upgraded to align with technological skincare trends, with the caviar series emerging as a key product [46][49]. Channels - The company has a solid offline presence while online channels are expected to become significant sources of revenue and profit [8][30]. - The offline channel is anticipated to see improvements in store efficiency due to brand strength and audience expansion, while online operations are focusing on younger demographics and refined marketing strategies [8][30]. Investment Recommendations - The company is positioned for medium to long-term growth, supported by its product diversification and channel optimization strategies [9][30]. - Projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated at 9.01 billion, 12.00 billion, and 15.42 billion respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 51, 38, and 30 [9].

[Table_Info1] [Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 港股公司报告 风险提示：消费不及预期，专柜扩张不达预期，新品表现未及预期，业 绩预测和估值判断不达预期。 | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 1829.11 | 2885.96 | 4034.52 | 5351.31 | 6855.97 | | (+/-)% | 15.96% | 57.78% | 39.80% | 32.64% | 28.12% | | 归属母公司净利润 | 352.08 | 661.93 | 876.47 | 1166.00 | 1487.50 | | (+/-)% | 6.36% | 88.00% | 32.41% | 33.03% | 27.57% | | 每股收益（元） | -- | -- | 1.79 | 2.38 | 3.03 | | 市盈率 | -- | -- | 47.36 | 35.60 | 27.91 | ...

Summary of the Conference Call on Mao Geping Company Overview - **Company**: Mao Geping - **Industry**: High-end domestic beauty and cosmetics market in China Key Points and Arguments Scarcity in the High-end Market - Mao Geping stands out in the high-end domestic beauty market due to the rarity of local brands with genuine brand value, leveraging unique Eastern aesthetics and deep consumer insights to build brand value [3][4] - The company has a flexible and efficient supply chain, enabling rapid market response and product innovation, such as the recent launch of a perfume line [3] - Mao Geping has established a presence in high-end department stores, with 389 counters, including locations like Beijing SKP, positioning itself alongside international luxury brands [4] Business Growth Drivers - Future growth will be driven by category extension (e.g., perfumes), brand matrix expansion (internal or external), and overseas expansion, with 15% of IPO funds allocated for international growth [6] - The company aims to enhance market penetration and diversify its business structure through these strategies [6] Financial Performance and Valuation - Following its inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, Mao Geping's liquidity has improved significantly, with a target price raised to HKD 99.35, corresponding to approximately 30 times PE for 2026 [7] - The company is positioned as a significant player in the domestic high-end beauty market, with strong growth potential and competitive advantages [7] Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - The high-end makeup market is thriving, driven by social, emotional, and functional values, with luxury brands increasing their focus on makeup to reach broader audiences [8][10] - High-end brands are scarce due to the need for strong brand power, marketing, product quality, and channel development [11] Competitive Landscape - The high-end market in China is largely dominated by foreign brands, but domestic brands like Mao Geping are beginning to gain traction, with a focus on quality and competitive pricing [12] - Despite economic challenges, products with emotional value and cultural recognition continue to attract consumers willing to pay a premium [13] Product Portfolio and Innovation - Mao Geping's skincare products offer competitive pricing compared to international brands, with a focus on high-value offerings like the caviar mask [14][15] - Recent product launches, including the starry eyeshadow and the national fragrance series, are expected to enhance the company's growth trajectory [28][29] Channel Strategy - The company has successfully penetrated high-end department stores, which are typically dominated by foreign brands, enhancing its brand visibility and market presence [20] - Mao Geping's online sales have also seen rapid growth, with significant contributions from major products like the caviar mask and new SKUs [26] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a revenue growth rate of over 30% from 2025 to 2026, driven by key product lines [31] - Mao Geping's market positioning and growth potential suggest a favorable investment outlook, especially as foreign brands lose market share [35] Economic Environment Impact - The current macroeconomic environment is positively influencing the domestic beauty industry, with increased demand for high-end products and opportunities for local brands to capture market share [36] Additional Important Insights - Mao Geping's brand value is closely tied to its founder's unique background and the integration of traditional Chinese culture into its products [18] - The company is strategically positioned to leverage the growing trend of domestic brands in the high-end market, with a focus on maintaining a balance between skincare and makeup offerings [18][32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company is positioned in a rapidly growing phase with a unique brand value and potential for further growth in the high-end cosmetics market, which is currently scarce for domestic brands [1][2] - The company is expected to enhance its market share in the high-end beauty segment, leveraging its understanding of Chinese consumers and flexible supply chains [2] - The company has strong online sales performance, with significant growth in GMV on platforms like Taobao and Douyin, indicating potential for continued expansion [3] Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The target price is set at HKD 99.35, reflecting a significant upside from the current price of HKD 84.25 [8][9] Market Position and Growth Potential - The high-end beauty market in China is dominated by foreign brands, but the company is well-positioned to become a leading domestic alternative as the trend of "Guochao" (national tide) rises [2] - As of January 2025, the company has 389 offline counters in high-end department stores, with a recent entry into Beijing's SKP, enhancing its premium brand image [2] Online and Offline Sales Strategy - The company achieved a GMV of RMB 1.4 billion and RMB 1.2 billion on Taobao and Douyin respectively in 2024, with year-on-year growth rates of 40% and 70% [3] - The average sales per square meter for the company's counters is RMB 14,000, indicating room for improvement compared to international brands [3] Product and Brand Expansion - The company plans to extend its product line with 13 new fragrances already registered, aiming to capture the growing demand among younger consumers [4] - There is potential for expanding the brand matrix and pursuing overseas markets, with approximately 15% of IPO proceeds earmarked for international expansion [4] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of RMB 8.67 billion, RMB 11.47 billion, and RMB 15.09 billion for the years 2024 to 2026, respectively [5] - The expected revenue and EPS CAGR from 2024 to 2026 is 35% and 32%, significantly higher than comparable companies [5]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3][81]. Core Insights - The company, MAOGEPING, is a leading high-end beauty group in China, being the only domestic company among the top ten high-end beauty groups in the market [2][12]. - The company has demonstrated rapid growth, with a net profit CAGR of 41.4% from 2021 to 2023, outpacing revenue growth, and maintaining a steady increase in net profit margin [2][19]. - The flagship brand MAOGEPING, launched in 2000, is the first high-end beauty brand in China and ranks as the twelfth largest high-end beauty brand by retail sales in 2023 [2][12]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - MAOGEPING has been deeply engaged in the beauty industry for 25 years and has established itself as a leading high-end beauty group in China [2][12]. - The company operates two main brands: MAOGEPING and Zhi Ai Zhong Sheng, targeting different market segments [17][18]. Business Operations - The company has 372 self-operated counters across China, ranking second among domestic beauty brands, and has a strong online presence with significant revenue and repurchase rates exceeding industry averages [3][19]. - The product portfolio includes a diverse range of cosmetics, skincare, and newly developed perfumes, with a focus on innovation and consumer demand [3][67]. Financial Performance - The company’s revenue grew from 15.8 billion yuan in 2021 to 28.9 billion yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 35.3% [19]. - The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 39.1 billion yuan, 51.1 billion yuan, and 65.1 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 35.6%, 30.7%, and 27.2% [81][82]. Market Potential - The Chinese beauty market is expanding, with the color cosmetics market size reaching 116.8 billion yuan in 2023, and significant growth potential remains compared to per capita spending in countries like Japan and South Korea [30][31]. - The high-end beauty market in China is projected to grow from 1,942 billion yuan in 2023 to 3,110 billion yuan by 2028, indicating a robust growth trajectory [43][44]. Future Growth Drivers - The brand leverages the IP of its founder, MAO Ge Ping, enhancing brand differentiation and consumer appeal through a unique blend of light and shadow aesthetics with Eastern cultural elements [51][53]. - The company is expanding its product lines, including a new perfume series launched in January 2025, to capture additional market segments [74][75].

Summary of the Conference Call on Mao Geping Company Overview - **Company Name**: Mao Geping - **Industry**: High-end cosmetics in China - **Market Position**: Recognized as a leading domestic high-end beauty brand, Mao Geping is the only Chinese brand to penetrate the high-end market, representing a significant growth model for domestic cosmetics [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Market Inclusion and Growth Potential - Mao Geping has been included in the Hang Seng Composite Index, which is expected to attract incremental capital flows [1]. - The company's market capitalization is approximately HKD 35 billion, with strong interest from domestic investors regarding future stock performance post-inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect [1]. Historical Development and Brand Positioning - Established in 2000, Mao Geping has over 20 years of development, with significant milestones including the opening of its first offline counter in 2003 and launching its Tmall flagship store in 2018 [3][4]. - The brand has transitioned from a focus on color cosmetics to a more balanced portfolio that includes skincare and fragrance, with skincare now contributing over 40% of revenue [5][8]. Financial Performance - For 2023, the company reported revenues of RMB 2.886 billion, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35.3% from 2021 to 2023. Net profit for the same period was RMB 660 million, with a CAGR of 41.6% [5][6]. - Projections for 2024 suggest revenues could reach around RMB 4 billion, with net profits of approximately RMB 850 million, maintaining a growth rate of around 30% [6]. Product and Revenue Structure - The primary revenue source is product sales, with the Mao Geping brand being the core focus, contributing significantly to overall sales [6][7]. - The product mix is approximately 56.2% color cosmetics and 40.2% skincare, with skincare's contribution increasing significantly over the past three years [7][8]. Channel Strategy - The company has a balanced online and offline channel strategy, with online sales accounting for approximately 42.4% of total revenue in 2023, expected to approach 50% in 2024 [12][19]. - Offline sales are primarily through self-operated counters, which provide a unique customer experience through trained beauty consultants [13][16]. Competitive Landscape - The high-end beauty market in China is dominated by foreign brands, with Mao Geping holding a 1.8% market share, ranking seventh [26]. - The high-end cosmetics market is projected to grow at a CAGR of around 10% from 2023 to 2028, indicating significant growth potential for Mao Geping [25][26]. Brand and Product Differentiation - Mao Geping's brand is characterized by its unique "light and shadow" aesthetic, which differentiates it from other brands in the same price range [28][29]. - The company has over 300 SKUs, with a strong focus on product quality and innovation, including popular items like the "Caviar Mask" and "Black Cream" [32][33]. Governance and Management - The company is family-owned, with the Mao family holding approximately 80% of the shares. The management structure is described as stable, with a clear division of responsibilities among family members [21][22]. - The CEO, who has been with the company since 2002, plays a crucial role in the company's operations and strategic direction [21]. Additional Important Insights - The overall beauty market in China is projected to reach RMB 579.8 billion in 2023, with skincare and color cosmetics markets expected to grow steadily [23][24]. - The company has successfully maintained growth in a challenging retail environment, attributed to its differentiated product offerings and customer service [14][16]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding Mao Geping's market position, financial performance, product strategy, and growth potential in the high-end cosmetics industry.

Company and Industry Summary Company Overview - The company is a high-end domestic cosmetics group in China, founded by Wang Ping in 2000, and is recognized as a unique player in the high-end beauty market [3][25] - The brand emphasizes a unique aesthetic philosophy and has a strong brand value and positioning in the high-end segment [3][5] Core Industry Insights - The high-end beauty market is experiencing growth, with the company positioned to capture market share as consumer preferences shift towards domestic brands [22][30] - The overall cosmetics market in China is significantly larger in skincare than in color cosmetics, with color cosmetics only accounting for one-fourth of the skincare market [29] Key Points from the Conference Call Brand and Product Development - The company has a comprehensive product lineup with 337 SKUs in color cosmetics and 50 in skincare, indicating a strong product diversity [6][10] - The brand focuses on high-quality ingredients and innovative packaging, which enhances the luxury experience for consumers [14][15] - The company has successfully launched new products, such as a lip glaze and a perfume series, which have shown promising sales figures [8][9] Sales and Distribution Channels - The company has nearly 400 counters, placing it in the top tier of the industry, with an average annual revenue of 4-5 million per counter for those open for over two years [10][11] - Online sales are growing rapidly, particularly on platforms like Douyin and Tmall, contributing significantly to overall revenue growth [11][35] - The company is expanding its presence in high-end retail locations, including department stores and shopping centers, to capture a broader customer base [10][33] Consumer Engagement and Experience - The brand emphasizes a strong customer service experience, with high staff training and engagement levels, leading to a high repurchase rate of nearly 20% [22][20] - The company has developed a unique business model that integrates online and offline channels, enhancing customer engagement and loyalty [28][34] Financial Performance and Projections - The company reported revenues of approximately 4 billion in the previous year, with projections of around 5.3 billion for the current year, reflecting a growth rate of about 30% [35][36] - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, driven by both online and offline sales channels [35] Valuation and Market Position - The current PE ratio is estimated to be in the low 20s, with potential for valuation premium due to its unique market position and upcoming catalysts [36] - The company is recognized as a rare domestic player in the high-end beauty segment, which supports its valuation and growth potential [25][36] Additional Insights - The brand's focus on "slow beauty" aligns with current consumer trends favoring quality and sustainability over rapid product turnover [17] - The company is leveraging its founder's influence and expertise in the beauty industry to drive product development and brand recognition [15][18] This summary encapsulates the key insights and developments discussed during the conference call, highlighting the company's strategic positioning within the high-end beauty market and its growth potential.

海外公司跟踪报告 | 非必需性消费 证券研究报告 | | | 基础数据 | 月 | 20 | 日收盘价（港 | 72.80 | 02 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 元） | | | | | | | 总市值（亿港元） | | 356.86 | | | | 总股本（亿股） | | 4.90 | | | | | 来源：聚源，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 | | | 难以复制的毛戈平品牌，打造高端价格带的国货品牌标杆：高端品牌具有突出的品牌形 象，通常由名人或艺术家创立，并使用他们的名字命名。作为品牌创始人，毛戈平先生 创新性地将光影美学的精髓与东方美学的内核精神深度融合，打造差异化服务。2003 年，毛戈平公司在上海港汇恒隆广场设立第一个专柜，成为第一个在高端百货商店设立 专柜的高端国货化妆品集团。截至 2024 年 6 月 30 日，公司在全国 120 个城市共运营 372 个自营专柜。专柜配备有 2700 名美妆顾问，提供个性化的咨询及试妆服务。 相关研究 分析师：宋婧茹 S0190520050002 BQI321 songjingru@xyzq.com.cn 分析师： ...