遇建大宗：铝的坦途 20251204 摘要 2025 年铝价已突破 22,000 元/吨，虽未达历史高点 25,000 元/吨，但 明年市场供需平衡，利好铝价逐步上行，对权益端友好。关注 4 月后虹 桥、华通线缆和中孚实业等阶段性脉冲表现。 预计 2026 年铝土矿 CIF 到岸价降至 60-65 美元/吨，因几内亚和塞拉利 昂产量增加。氧化铝市场过剩，期货价格已跌破 2,600 元/吨，预计明年 均价降至 2,800 元/吨，选股逻辑应倾向于氧化铝买入方。 中国电解铝产能接近极限，运行产能达 4,450 万吨。欧美及印尼等发展 中国家的电解铝供应值得关注，以评估全球供需平衡对价格的影响。技 术改造带来的超产对设备有潜在损害，政策执行力度影响供应。 美国对铝征收 50%关税，保护本土电解铝价格，使其免受 AI 抢占资源 的影响。欧洲电解铝厂规模小且设备老旧，面临被 AI 挤出市场的风险， 可能关停 330 万吨产能，对全球供应产生重大影响。 海外电解铝项目投产速度差异大，信发与青山合作模式速度快但不具普 适性。预计 2026-2028 年全球电解铝增速在 2.4%-3.5%之间，需关注 海外项目工期缩减的不确 ...

Group 1 - FTSE Russell announced the quarterly review results for the FTSE China Index Series, effective from December 22, 2025 [1] - The FTSE China A50 Index added two constituents: Luoyang Molybdenum and Sunshine Energy, while removing SF Express and Jiangsu Bank [1] - The FTSE China 50 Index added three constituents: China Hongqiao, CATL, and Heng Rui Medicine, while removing CITIC Securities, Great Wall Motors, and Li Auto [1] - The next quarterly review for the FTSE China Index will be announced in March [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that China Hongqiao (1378.HK) saw its stock price rise over 4% to HKD 34.32 following the announcement of its inclusion in the FTSE China 50 Index by FTSE Russell [1] Group 2 - FTSE Russell announced the quarterly review results for the FTSE China Index Series, with all changes effective from December 22, 2025 [1] - China Hongqiao's inclusion in the FTSE China 50 Index is a significant development for the company, potentially enhancing its visibility and attractiveness to investors [1]

Core Viewpoint - FTSE Russell announced adjustments to several indices, including the FTSE China 50 Index, FTSE China A50 Index, FTSE China A150 Index, FTSE China A200 Index, and FTSE China A400 Index, effective after the market close on December 19, 2025 [1][17]. Group 1: Index Adjustments - The FTSE China A50 Index will include Luoyang Molybdenum and Sungrow Power, while removing Jiangsu Bank and SF Holding [3][19]. - The FTSE China 50 Index will add China Hongqiao, CATL, and Heng Rui Medicine, and remove CITIC Securities, Great Wall Motors, and Li Auto [5][21]. - The FTSE China A150 Index will add Ying Shi Innovation, Jiangsu Bank, Huadian New Energy, SF Holding, Jiangbolong, and Huayou Cobalt, while removing Luoyang Molybdenum, Desay SV, Longi Green Energy, Baoxin Software, Shanghai Pharmaceuticals, and Sungrow Power [9][25]. - The FTSE China A200 Index will include Ying Shi Innovation, Huadian New Energy, Jiangbolong, and Huayou Cobalt, and exclude Desay SV, Longi Green Energy, Baoxin Software, and Shanghai Pharmaceuticals [11][27]. - The FTSE China A400 Index will see a broader adjustment, adding Anji Technology, Baiyin Nonferrous Metals, Yitang Co., and BlueFocus, while removing Chipbond Technology, Yipin Hong, Guanghuan Xin, and Huaxi Biological [12][28]. Group 2: Investment Implications - The adjustments by FTSE Russell are expected to attract passive fund allocations to the included stocks and increase overseas interest in Chinese assets [15][31]. - In the first ten months of 2025, foreign capital inflow into the Chinese stock market reached $50.6 billion, significantly surpassing the $11.4 billion for the entire year of 2024, marking an increase of over three times [15][31]. - UBS forecasts that the A-share market will see an increase in earnings growth from 6% this year to 8% next year, driven by improved nominal GDP growth and a narrowing of PPI declines [16][32]. - Morgan Stanley has set a target for the CSI 300 Index at 4,840 points by December 2026, indicating a stable outlook for Chinese stocks amid moderate earnings growth and higher valuation levels [16][32].

Core Viewpoint - FTSE Russell announced changes to the FTSE China Index series, including the FTSE China A50 Index, which will include new stocks and exclude others, effective December 22, 2025 [1][2][3]. Group 1: Index Changes - The FTSE China A50 Index will include Luoyang Molybdenum and Sungrow Power Supply, while excluding Jiangsu Bank and SF Express [2][3]. - The FTSE China 50 Index will add China Hongqiao Group (P shares), CATL (H shares), and Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (H shares), removing China Securities (H shares), Great Wall Motor (H shares), and Li Auto [2][3]. - The changes reflect significant year-to-date performance of the newly included stocks, with Luoyang Molybdenum up 173.35% and Sungrow Power Supply up 145.57% [3]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The newly added stocks are primarily from the non-ferrous metals, pharmaceuticals, and lithium battery storage sectors, indicating market trends in both A-shares and H-shares [4]. - Analysts remain optimistic about the non-ferrous metals sector, predicting a new upward cycle driven by macroeconomic recovery and supply chain disruptions [5]. - The gold market is expected to continue its bullish trend, supported by liquidity easing from the Federal Reserve and increased global demand for gold [5]. Group 3: Metal and Lithium Battery Outlook - The copper market is anticipated to see upward price movements due to supply constraints and structural demand growth from new energy transitions [6]. - The lithium battery sector is experiencing significant investment growth, with expectations for continued demand driven by energy storage needs [6][7]. - China's competitive advantage in the global lithium battery market is highlighted, with six of the top ten global power battery companies being Chinese, holding a market share of 68.2% [7].

Group 1 - FTSE Russell announced the new candidate stocks for the FTSE China 50 Index, which include China Aluminum (601600)(02600), Hansoh Pharmaceutical (03692), Huatai Securities (601688)(06886), JD Health (06618), and New China Life Insurance (601336)(01336) [1] - On December 3, FTSE Russell announced adjustments to the FTSE China 50 Index, FTSE China A50 Index, FTSE China A150 Index, FTSE China A200 Index, and FTSE China A400 Index, effective after the market close on December 19, 2025 [2] - The adjustments will include the addition of China Hongqiao (01378), CATL (300750)(03750), and Heng Rui Medicine (600276)(01276) to the FTSE China 50 Index, while removing CITIC Securities H-share (06066), Great Wall Motor H-share (02333), and Li Auto-W (02015) [2]

Core Viewpoint - FTSE Russell announced adjustments to several indices including the FTSE China 50 Index, which will take effect after market close on December 19, 2025 [1] Group 1: Index Adjustments - The FTSE China 50 Index will include new constituents such as China Hongqiao (01378), CATL (03750), and Heng Rui Pharmaceutical (01276) [1] - The index will exclude companies like CITIC Securities H (06066), Great Wall Motors H (02333), and Li Auto-W (02015) [1] Group 2: Alternative Stocks - FTSE Russell released a list of alternative stocks for the FTSE China 50 Index, which includes companies like Aluminum Corporation of China (02600), Hansoh Pharmaceutical (03692), Huatai Securities (06886), JD Health (06618), and New China Life Insurance (01336) [1]

Core Viewpoint - FTSE Russell announced adjustments to several indices, including the FTSE China 50 Index, which will take effect after the market closes on December 19, 2025, with changes in constituent stocks [1] Group 1: Index Adjustments - The FTSE China 50 Index will include new constituents such as China Hongqiao (01378), CATL (03750), and Heng Rui Pharmaceutical (01276) [1] - The index will remove companies like CITIC Securities H shares (06066), Great Wall Motors H shares (02333), and Li Auto-W (02015) [1] Group 2: Alternative Stocks - FTSE Russell released a list of alternative stocks for the FTSE China 50 Index, which includes companies like Aluminum Corporation of China (02600), Hansoh Pharmaceutical (03692), Huatai Securities (06886), JD Health (06618), and New China Life Insurance (01336) [1]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 26,076.46, down by 18.59 points or 0.07% on March 10 [1] - The index reached a high of 26,088.08 and a low of 25,955.53 during the trading session, with a trading volume of 33.66 million [1] Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - HSBC Holdings closed at HKD 112.111, up by 1% compared to the previous close [2] - Tencent Holdings closed at HKD 616.297, down by 0.11% compared to the previous close [2] Individual Stock Movements - Tencent Holdings: Latest price HKD 617.000, down by HKD 2.500 or 0.40% [3] - Alibaba Group: Latest price HKD 157.000, up by HKD 2.100 or 1.36% [3] - China Construction Bank: Latest price HKD 8.160, up by HKD 0.010 or 0.12% [3] - HSBC Holdings: Latest price HKD 111.000, up by HKD 0.500 or 0.45% [3] - Xiaomi Group: Latest price HKD 40.700, up by HKD 0.400 or 0.99% [3] - AIA Group: Latest price HKD 80.800, up by HKD 0.300 or 0.37% [3] - NetEase: Latest price HKD 224.400, up by HKD 2.000 or 0.90% [3] - BYD Company: Latest price HKD 100.100, up by HKD 2.150 or 2.19% [3] - Ctrip Group: Latest price HKD 543.000, down by HKD 1.000 or 0.18% [3] - JD Group: Latest price HKD 116.000, down by HKD 1.100 or 0.94% [3]

Core Viewpoint - HSBC's report indicates that China Hongqiao (01378) is expected to achieve further profit growth by Q4 2025 due to higher aluminum prices and strict cost control, maintaining a "Buy" rating and raising the target price to HKD 37.4 [1] Group 1: Industry Outlook - After a year of controlled raw material costs in 2024, the aluminum sector is projected to enter 2025 with a structurally tighter balance, driven by a decline in alumina and bauxite prices alongside sustained downstream demand [1] - Domestic aluminum production is expected to remain capped below 45 million tons, with inventory levels still low [1] - For 2026, aluminum prices are forecasted to increase by 6% year-on-year, with potential for further upside as the market tightens and cost risks remain manageable [1] Group 2: Company Performance - HSBC remains optimistic about Hongqiao's long-term profit trajectory, supported by strong aluminum fundamentals, global low inventory, resilient grid-related spending, and stable electric vehicle (EV) demand [1] - The estimated compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for Hongqiao's earnings from 2024 to 2027 is projected at 18% [1] - Hongqiao's valuation is considered more attractive compared to peers, with a dividend yield of approximately 7% [1] - The recently concluded placement is expected to effectively reduce the company's leverage [1]