假设可换股债券按每股初步换股价20.88港元及按固定汇率获悉数兑换，可换股债券将兑换为约1.12 亿股换股股份(可予调整)，相当于(i)公司于本公告日期的已发行股本约1.2%，及(ii)公司经发行该等1.12 亿股换股股份扩大的已发行股本约1.2%(假设公司已发行股本并无其他变动)。 可换股债券发行的估计所得款项总额将约为3亿美元，而(经扣除相关开支后)可换股债券发行的所 得款项净额估计约为2.95亿美元。公司拟将可换股债券发行的所得款项净额用作为现有境外债项再融资 及一般公司用途。 中国宏桥：建议发行3亿美元于2030年到期的1.50厘 可换股债券及同步回购 中国宏桥(01378)发布公告，于2025年3月17日(交易时段后)，公司及附属公司担保人与联席牵头经 办人订立可换股债券认购协议，据此，公司已同意发行，而联席牵头经办人已同意(各自而非共同)尽力 认购及支付或促使认购及支付可换股债券。可换股债券将按初步本金额3亿美元发行。初步换股价(可予 调整)为20.88港元，较股份于2025年3月17日(可换股债券认购协议日期)在联交所所报收市价每股15.10港 元溢价约38.3%。 在发售可换股债券的同时，联席 ...

假设可换股债券按每股初步换股价20.88港元及按固定汇率获悉数兑换，可换股债券将兑换为约1.12亿股 换股股份(可予调整)，相当于(i)公司于本公告日期的已发行股本约1.2%，及(ii)公司经发行该等1.12亿股 换股股份扩大的已发行股本约1.2%(假设公司已发行股本并无其他变动)。 可换股债券发行的估计所得款项总额将约为3亿美元，而(经扣除相关开支后)可换股债券发行的所得款 项净额估计约为2.95亿美元。公司拟将可换股债券发行的所得款项净额用作为现有境外债项再融资及一 般公司用途。 在发售可换股债券的同时，联席牵头经办人可促使可换股债券买方(并非公司"关连人士"的有关人士)出 售名义上与可换股债券相关的现有股份，而有关买方希望于有担保卖空中出售相关股份("同步股本发 售")及公司将购买于同步股本发售中出售的部分股份("同步股份回购")。公司预期购买2054.8万股股份 作为同步股份回购的一部分，购买价为每股14.60港元。 中国宏桥(01378)：建议发行3亿美元于2030年到期 的1.50厘可换股债券及同步回购 智通财经APP讯，中国宏桥(01378)发布公告，于2025年3月17日(交易时段后)，公司及 ...

上 市 公 司 有色金属 2025 年 03 月 17 日 中国宏桥 (01378) ——全球一体化布局完备，业绩稳健的高股息标的 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 增持（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 03 月 14 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 15.06 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8877.99 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 15.38/6.91 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 1,425.26 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 9,463.89 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0834 | 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 (8621)23297818× guozy@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -3% 47% 97% 147% HSCEI 中国宏桥 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A02305230 ...

证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 gszqdatemark 2025 03 15 年 月 日 中国宏桥（01378.HK） 历史最佳业绩，一体化成本优势凸显 事件：公司已于 3 月 14 日公布 2024 年全年业绩，2024 年公司实现营收 1561.7 亿元，同比增长 16.9%；实现归母净利润 223.7 亿元，同比增长 95.2%；扣非归母净利润 245.7 亿元，同比增长 96.1%；基本每股收益 2.36 元，同比增长 95.2%。净利润增加主要系电解铝及氧化铝"量价齐 升"及原材料采购价格较 2023 年同期下降所致。目前铝价在全球低库存 及国内供给刚性凸显下维持高位预期，并有望伴随美联储降息及新能源 相关绿色用铝占比提升带来定价中枢进一步上移，凭借铝行业高景气延 续，公司业绩弹性有望持续提升。 受益铝行业高景气，各产品"量价齐升"增厚公司业绩。1）量，公司实 现电解铝销量 583.7 万吨，同比增长 1.5%；氧化铝销量 1092.1 万吨， 同比增长 5.3%；铝合金加工产品销量 76.6 万吨，同比增长 32.1%。2） 价，公司电解铝外售价为 1.755 万元/吨（不含税），同比增长 6. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company achieved its best historical performance in 2024, with revenue of 156.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 22.37 billion yuan, up 95.2% year-on-year [1]. - The increase in net profit is primarily due to the simultaneous rise in both volume and price of electrolytic aluminum and alumina, along with a decrease in raw material procurement prices compared to the same period in 2023 [1]. - The report anticipates that aluminum prices will remain high due to low global inventory and rigid domestic supply, with potential further increases in pricing driven by Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and a rise in green aluminum usage [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company sold 5.837 million tons of electrolytic aluminum, a 1.5% increase year-on-year, and 10.921 million tons of alumina, a 5.3% increase year-on-year [2]. - The average selling price for electrolytic aluminum was 17,550 yuan/ton, up 6.6% year-on-year, while alumina's selling price was 3,420 yuan/ton, up 33.6% year-on-year [2]. - The gross margin for electrolytic aluminum increased by 7.2 percentage points to 24.6%, and for alumina, it rose by 24.3 percentage points to 35.4% [2]. Cost and Pricing Dynamics - The decline in coal prices has improved power generation costs, with a reduction of 86 yuan/ton in coal prices leading to a decrease of 377.3 yuan in the cost of producing one ton of electrolytic aluminum [3]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum supply is becoming rigid, with production capacity nearing 44 million tons, which, combined with recovering demand, is expected to support high aluminum prices [3]. Future Projections - The report projects net profits for the company to be 21.4 billion yuan in 2025, 24.2 billion yuan in 2026, and 26.9 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 6.7, 5.9, and 5.3, respectively [4][5]. - The company is expected to benefit from its integrated cost advantages and overseas expansion, leading to significant growth [4].

Financial Performance - Revenue increased by approximately 16.9% year-on-year, reaching approximately RMB 156.17 billion[4] - Gross profit increased by approximately 101.2% year-on-year, amounting to approximately RMB 42.16 billion[4] - Annual profit increased by approximately 96.4% year-on-year, totaling approximately RMB 24.55 billion[4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders increased by approximately 95.2% year-on-year, reaching approximately RMB 22.37 billion[4] - Basic earnings per share increased by approximately 95.2% year-on-year, recorded at approximately RMB 2.3611[4] - The company's revenue for the year was approximately RMB 156.17 billion, an increase of about 16.9% year-on-year[58] - Gross profit reached approximately RMB 42.16 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 101.2%[58] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately RMB 22.37 billion, up about 95.2% year-on-year[58] - Basic earnings per share were approximately RMB 2.3611, compared to RMB 1.2095 in the same period last year[58] Dividends - Proposed final dividend of HKD 1.02 per share, totaling HKD 1.61 per share for the fiscal year 2024, compared to HKD 0.63 per share for fiscal year 2023[4] - The company declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.59 per share for 2024, compared to HKD 0.12 per share in 2023, reflecting a substantial increase[39] - The board proposed a final dividend of HKD 1.02 per share for the year ending December 31, 2024, which, along with the interim dividend of HKD 0.59, totals HKD 1.61 per share for the fiscal year 2024, compared to HKD 0.63 per share for 2023[115][117] Assets and Liabilities - Cash and cash equivalents increased to approximately RMB 44.77 billion from RMB 31.72 billion year-on-year[10] - Trade receivables increased to approximately RMB 9.77 billion from RMB 5.49 billion year-on-year[10] - Total assets increased to approximately RMB 109.82 billion from RMB 87.39 billion year-on-year[10] - Net assets attributable to shareholders increased to approximately RMB 107.80 billion from RMB 92.24 billion year-on-year[12] - The total liabilities of the group as of December 31, 2024, are approximately RMB 110,551,534,000, compared to RMB 94,063,640,000 as of December 31, 2023, with a debt-to-asset ratio of about 48.2%[89] Trade Receivables and Payables - Trade receivables for 2024 amounted to RMB 9,783,057, up from RMB 5,496,090 in 2023, indicating an increase of about 77.5%[42] - The aging analysis of trade receivables shows that RMB 6,583,327 is within 3 months, compared to RMB 4,883,108 in 2023, reflecting a growth of 34.7%[44] - Trade payables to third parties increased to RMB 11,863,104 in 2024 from RMB 10,764,251 in 2023, marking a rise of approximately 10.2%[45] Capital Expenditure and Investments - The group's capital expenditure for the year was approximately RMB 12.61 billion, mainly for construction projects related to quality assurance, green aluminum innovation, and lightweight materials[80] - As of December 31, 2024, the group's capital commitments related to property, plant, and equipment amount to approximately RMB 7,455,180,000, primarily for the construction of the Yunnan Green Aluminum Innovation Industrial Park, lightweight materials base, and new energy projects[82] - The company plans to acquire 100% equity of Shandong Hongtuo Industrial Co., Ltd., which will increase its stake in Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Industry Holdings Co., Ltd.[51] Financial Instruments and Standards - The group has adopted new and revised International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) effective from January 1, 2024, including IFRS 16 regarding lease liabilities in sale and leaseback transactions[15] - The application of IFRS 1 amendments clarifies the classification of liabilities as current or non-current, which will not significantly impact the group's financial performance for the current and prior years[17] - The group has not early adopted any new IFRS that have been issued but are not yet effective, indicating a cautious approach to upcoming regulatory changes[18] - IFRS 18, which will replace IAS 1 regarding the presentation of financial statements, introduces new requirements for the presentation of specific categories in the income statement and is expected to have minimal impact on the group's financial position[20] Market Performance - Revenue from aluminum products reached RMB 156,168,720 thousand in 2024, up from RMB 133,623,632 thousand in 2023, representing a growth of 16.8%[30] - Revenue from liquid aluminum alloy increased to RMB 95,169,828 thousand in 2024, compared to RMB 83,750,044 thousand in 2023, a rise of 13.5%[30] - The revenue from the Indian market surged to RMB 4,623,728 thousand in 2024, up from RMB 2,412,216 thousand in 2023, indicating an increase of 92.0%[30] Corporate Governance - The board consists of four executive directors, four non-executive directors, and four independent non-executive directors, ensuring a balanced governance structure[103] - The company has received multiple awards for corporate governance and sustainable development, including recognition as one of the "Most Admired Companies"[62] Employee and Operational Metrics - The group has a total of 51,320 employees as of December 31, 2024, an increase of 2,412 from the previous year, with total employee costs amounting to approximately RMB 5,557,824,000, a rise of about 10.4%[93] - The group reported a net cash inflow from operating activities of approximately RMB 33.98 billion for the year[80] Strategic Focus - The company is focusing on green development and has seen a steady increase in low-carbon aluminum production[60] - The company aims to leverage innovation and high-quality development to navigate global market changes and enhance competitiveness[65] - The company continues to focus on high-quality green development as a strategic guideline, aiming to enhance systematic and forward-looking planning for future industries[97] Shareholder Information - As of December 31, 2024, major shareholders include Shih Ping Trust Company holding 6,090,031,073 shares (64.27%) and Zhang Hongxia with 6,098,901,073 shares (64.36%) under a concerted action arrangement[111][116] - The company repurchased a total of 11,649,500 ordinary shares, representing approximately 0.12% of the total issued shares as of December 31, 2024[121] - The repurchase of shares reflects the board's confidence in the company's long-term strategy and growth potential[122]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [8]. Core Views - The company has established itself as a global leader in the aluminum industry chain, effectively hedging against price fluctuations and ensuring long-term operational stability [2][4]. - The company benefits from a flexible management mechanism and leverages the advantages of hydropower resources in Yunnan to transfer part of its electrolytic aluminum capacity, further achieving cost leadership [5][32]. - The company has completed its peak capital expenditure phase, with an average dividend payout ratio of approximately 49.2% from 2019 to H1 2024, and an average dividend yield of 9.2% from 2019 to 2023, which is high within the metal cycle sector [7][32]. - Future aluminum prices are expected to rise, coupled with a tight supply-demand balance, leading to reduced price volatility and enhanced cash profit margins for the company, highlighting its long-term investment value [2][7]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Founded in July 1994, the company has become a global leader in the aluminum industry chain, with a total alumina production capacity of 19.5 million tons, including 17.5 million tons domestically and 2 million tons in Indonesia [4][17]. - The electrolytic aluminum production capacity is approximately 6.46 million tons, with major production bases in Shandong and Yunnan [4][26]. Operational Strengths - The company has a comprehensive layout of the aluminum industry chain, including bauxite mining, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum processing, which effectively mitigates price volatility risks [5][22]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is as high as 18.35% (annualized for H1 2024), placing it among the top in the aluminum industry [32]. Profitability and Market Dynamics - The company anticipates a net profit growth of approximately 95% year-on-year in 2024, reaching a historical high, driven by the overall price increase in the aluminum industry chain [4][18]. - The report highlights that the profit share of alumina is expected to dominate in 2024 due to supply constraints, while the profitability of electrolytic aluminum is projected to expand in 2025 as supply dynamics shift [6][53]. Dividend and Valuation - The company’s high dividend payout and the potential acquisition of core aluminum assets are expected to enhance its valuation, with a focus on long-term stable returns for investors [7][56]. - The report notes that the company is likely to benefit from the correction of the A/H share valuation gap following the acquisition of Hongtu Industrial, which has significant alumina and electrolytic aluminum production capacities [7][56].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 16.8, indicating a potential upside of 31% from the current price of HKD 12.82 [2][72]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated significant revenue growth due to high industry demand, with Shandong Hongqiao achieving a revenue of CNY 110.1 billion in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 12.5%, and a net profit of CNY 15.8 billion, up 141% year-on-year [2][3]. - The integrated business model of the company provides a competitive advantage, ensuring stable supply and cost efficiency, with a self-sufficiency rate of 156% for alumina production [3][72]. - The report forecasts revenue for 2024-2026 to be CNY 150.3 billion, CNY 153.2 billion, and CNY 154.3 billion, respectively, with net profits projected at CNY 20.9 billion, CNY 22.7 billion, and CNY 23.6 billion [72]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of CNY 133.6 billion in 2023, with a projected increase to CNY 150.3 billion in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 12% [5][72]. - The net profit for 2023 was CNY 11.5 billion, with expectations of CNY 22.8 billion in 2024, representing an 82% increase [5][72]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be CNY 2.20, CNY 2.40, and CNY 2.50 for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [72]. Industry Context - The aluminum industry is experiencing high demand, with global electrolytic aluminum production growth slowing down, leading to a tight supply situation [24][29]. - The report highlights that China's aluminum production and consumption account for over half of the global totals, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 5.1% in demand from 2015 to 2024 [29][30]. Operational Efficiency - The company has optimized its cost structure, with a decrease in raw material prices contributing to improved profit margins [2][3]. - The report notes a steady decline in the company's debt ratio, which was 47% in 2023, indicating enhanced financial stability [18][20]. Dividend Policy - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio, with forecasts of dividends per share at HKD 0.80, HKD 1.45, and HKD 1.58 for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [70][72].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that aluminum prices in China remain strong due to low inventory and robust consumption, with limited new production capacity expected this year [1] - The report indicates that the profit margins for aluminum smelting will be supported by these factors [1] - China Hongqiao's total debt level is expected to decrease significantly, and the recent stock buyback will help boost investor sentiment [1] Group 2 - The investment rating for China Hongqiao is maintained at "Buy," with a slight increase in the target price from HKD 14.8 to HKD 15 [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from rising aluminum product prices, with a projected net profit growth of 95% for the fiscal year 2024 compared to the previous year [6] - The increase in alumina prices and stable electrolytic aluminum prices are the main drivers for the significant improvement in the company's performance [6] - The company has a large-scale alumina production capacity, which supports its ongoing performance growth [6] Financial Performance Summary - The average price of alumina in Shandong reached 5,720.00 CNY/ton as of December 17, 2024, with an annual average of 3,963.50 CNY/ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 36.5% [6] - The average price of electrolytic aluminum was 19,750.00 CNY/ton as of December 18, 2024, with an annual average of 19,927.25 CNY/ton, showing a year-on-year increase of approximately 6.6% [6] - The company's net profit for 2024-2026 is projected to be 229 billion CNY, 256 billion CNY, and 286 billion CNY respectively [7] Market and Operational Insights - The alumina price is expected to remain strong, potentially driving industry capacity to continue being released in 2025 [7] - The operating rate of electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan has remained high, with a capacity utilization rate of 99.32% in June 2024 [7] - The company is actively expanding its green aluminum production, which is anticipated to provide a competitive advantage due to lower carbon emissions compared to traditional methods [7]