行业周报 | 有色金属 2026 经济开局定调+美联储降息扩表，看好有色景气上行 证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 14 日 有色金属行业周报（2025.12.8 -2025.12.14） 核心结论 本周核心关注一：政治局会议定调明年经济工作，实施更加积极有为的宏观 政策 2026 年经济工作的政策基调已经明确，会议指出，做好明年经济 工作，要实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，增强政策前瞻性针对性协 同性，持续扩大内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量，因地制宜 发展新质生产力，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，持续防范化解重 点领域风险，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，推动经济实 现质的有效提升和量的合理增长，保持社会和谐稳定，实现"十五 五"良好开局。2026 年是"十五五"开局之年，政策取向将直接 影响未来五年经济发展的节奏与质量。政策基调将更为积极，重点 解决经济运行中的结构性矛盾，通过更加精准有效的政策组合拳， 激发经济增长新动能。 本周核心关注二：美联储继续降息，同时重启扩表 12 月 11 日凌晨，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 0.25 个百分点至 3.5%-3.75%，符合市场预期。其中声明新 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has successfully completed a share placement to meet domestic and international project needs and debt repayment, which is expected to optimize its asset structure and quality in the future [1] Group 1: Share Placement and Fund Allocation - The company announced the completion of a share placement and subscription agreement, issuing a total of 400 million shares at a subscription price of HKD 29.20 per share, with expected net proceeds of approximately HKD 11.49 billion [1] - Of the proceeds, 60% (approximately HKD 6.894 billion) will be used for the development and enhancement of domestic and international projects, with significant capital expenditures planned for the next three months [1] - 30% (approximately HKD 3.447 billion) will be allocated for repaying existing debts to optimize the company's capital structure, with total debts due before June 30, 2026, amounting to approximately HKD 54 billion [1] - The remaining 10% (approximately HKD 1.149 billion) will be used for working capital and general corporate purposes, including coal procurement and other raw materials [1] Group 2: Future Development and Shareholder Confidence - The controlling shareholder, Hongqiao Holdings, has increased its stake in the company, purchasing 7.5 million shares at an average price of approximately HKD 30.54 per share, raising its ownership from 63.94% to 64.02% [2] - Following the share placement, Hongqiao Holdings' stake decreased to 59.82%, but after the subscription, it increased to 61.44%, indicating strong confidence in the company's future development [2] Group 3: Financial Performance and Market Outlook - China Hongqiao's subsidiary, Shandong Hongqiao, reported a 6% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first three quarters, totaling RMB 116.93 billion, with a 23% increase in net profit to RMB 19.37 billion [3] - The third quarter saw revenue of RMB 38.7 billion, a 2% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of RMB 6.9 billion, an 18% year-on-year increase, driven by improved profitability in the electrolytic aluminum sector [3] - The average aluminum price in China has risen to RMB 21,407 per ton since Q4 2025, supported by tight global supply and increasing demand, which is expected to benefit the company [3][4] Group 4: New Project Contributions - The company’s West Simandou iron ore project has officially commenced production, with an expected output of 30 million tons in the first year and reaching full capacity in the second year, which is anticipated to enhance the company's performance [4]

当前价：31.36 港元 证 券 研 究 报 告 中国宏桥（01378.HK）跟踪分析报告 推荐（维持） 优质电解铝高股息标的，行业龙头兼具成长 目标价：34.3 港元 港股公司 铝 2025 年 12 月 12 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：刘岗 邮箱：liugang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522120002 证券分析师：李梦娇 邮箱：limengjiao@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525040002 公司基本数据 | 总股本(万股) | 992,438.02 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股(万股) | 992,438.02 | | 总市值(亿港元) | 3,112.29 | | 流通市值(亿港元) | 3,112.29 | | 资产负债率(%) | 49.08 | | 每股净资产(元) | 11.92 | | 12 个月内最高/最低价(港元) | 34.90/10.96 | 市场表现对比图(近 12 个月) -9% 64% 138% 211% 24/12 25/02 25/05 25/07 25/09 25/12 2024-12-12~2025-12-1 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Hongqiao (01378) saw a significant increase in stock price, opening over 3% higher and reaching a price of 32.4 HKD with a trading volume of 12.41 million HKD, following the announcement of a major asset acquisition by its subsidiary, Hong Chuang Holdings [1] Group 1: Company Developments - Hong Chuang Holdings (002379) received approval from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's M&A Review Committee for its plan to issue shares to acquire assets, specifically 100% equity of Hong Tuo Industrial from Wei Qiao Aluminum, Jia Hui Investment, and Dongfang Asset Management, with a transaction value of 63.5 billion RMB [1] - This transaction represents a strategic move for China Hongqiao to bring its core aluminum assets back to the A-share market, which is expected to enhance internal asset integration and improve the company's overall competitiveness through capital market leverage [1]

Group 1: Precious Metals - The report emphasizes the long-term allocation value of precious metals, particularly gold, supported by central bank purchases and a weakening dollar credit system [10][11][44] - Gold demand is expected to remain strong due to central bank purchases, with a total of 219.85 tons purchased in Q3 2025, marking a historical high [18][20] - Silver is projected to experience strong price momentum due to persistent supply-demand gaps and low domestic inventory levels [28][39] Group 2: Copper - The copper mining sector is expected to maintain low growth rates, with a projected supply shortage in 2026 due to ongoing mining and smelting conflicts [12][45] - Global copper production is anticipated to increase by approximately 10,000 tons, 70,000 tons, and 84,000 tons from 2025 to 2027, while smelting capacity is expected to rise by 217,000 tons, 100,000 tons, and 20,000 tons respectively [12][47] - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the copper sector, such as Zijin Mining and Jiangxi Copper, as supply tightens [2][12] Group 3: Aluminum - The aluminum market is expected to maintain a tight balance, with domestic production growth rates projected at 2.2%, 1.4%, and 0.4% from 2025 to 2027 [3][13] - Demand for aluminum remains resilient, driven by investments in new energy and power grids, with a projected domestic demand growth of 2.6%, 1.0%, and 3.6% over the same period [3][13] - The report highlights the importance of high dividend stocks in the aluminum sector, recommending companies like China Hongqiao and Tianshan Aluminum [3][13] Group 4: Cobalt - The cobalt supply chain is being reshaped by policies in the Democratic Republic of Congo, leading to a significant reduction in global supply, with projections of only 96,600 tons contributed annually from 2026 to 2027 [4][14] - Demand for cobalt is expected to grow, particularly in high-end electric vehicles and solid-state batteries, with a projected global shortage of 32,000 tons and 31,000 tons in 2026 and 2027 respectively [4][14] - Companies benefiting from cobalt price elasticity, such as Huayou Cobalt and Luoyang Molybdenum, are recommended for investment [4][14]

Market Overview - Hong Kong stocks opened positively with the Hang Seng Index up by 0.9%, the National Enterprises Index up by 0.88%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index up by 1.02% [1] - The market sentiment remains cautious, with expectations that the index will continue to fluctuate between 25,200 and 26,200 points [3] Company Updates - Zijin Mining (02899) saw a rise of 3.51%, while China Hongqiao (01378) increased by 3.32%, JD Health (06618) by 3.2%, Sands China (01928) by 2.36%, and NetEase (09999) by 1.91% [1] - Conversely, Henderson Land Development (00012) fell by 1.03%, Li Ning (02331) by 0.75%, and Hansoh Pharmaceutical (03692) by 0.65% [1] Bond Issuance - Zhaojin Mining (01818) opened high at 1.97% and announced the issuance of technology innovation convertible bonds amounting to 800 million RMB, which is 53.3% of the planned issuance of up to 1.5 billion RMB. The bonds have a two-year term and a coupon rate of 2.2% [1] Shareholder Activity - Leap Motor (09863) opened up by 1.63% as the Chairman and CEO Zhu Jiangming, along with shareholder Fu Liqian, purchased a total of 2.1506 million H shares at an average price of approximately 50.51 RMB, totaling over 100 million RMB. This increases their combined holdings to 23.75% of the total issued shares [2] - Red Star Macalline (01528) opened down by 0.84% after shareholders Taobao Holdings and New Retail Fund reduced their holdings by 30.616 million H shares, representing 0.7% of the current total share capital [2]

金吾财讯 | 中国宏桥(01378)股价高位运行，截至发稿，涨3.44%，报32.44港元，成交额4.08亿港元。 汇丰研究发布月度大宗商品研究报告，指出需求强劲与供应紧张令基本金属价格保持强势，考虑到市场 供需平衡紧绌，价格可能存在进一步上行风险。在中国材料板块中，该行最看好铝；在当前宏观背景 下，亦看好黄金；同时对建筑材料长期前景持正面看法。汇丰研究指，展望明年铝业基本面趋向坚实， 加上中国的产能上限限制国内供应增长，海外新增供应依然温和，预料分别按年增长0.5%及3%，相应 将2026及2027年铝价预测上调，上海期货交易所铝价预测料达每吨22,000元及23,000元人民币。该行目 前在中国材料板块中偏好铝业股，预计低库存及4,500万吨产能上限将为铝价提供良好支持。 金吾财讯 | 中国宏桥(01378)股价高位运行，截至发稿，涨3.44%，报32.44港元，成交额4.08亿港元。 汇丰研究发布月度大宗商品研究报告，指出需求强劲与供应紧张令基本金属价格保持强势，考虑到市场 供需平衡紧绌，价格可能存在进一步上行风险。在中国材料板块中，该行最看好铝；在当前宏观背景 下，亦看好黄金；同时对建筑材料长期前景持 ...

每经AI快讯，中国宏桥(01378.HK)高开逾3%，截至发稿，涨3.32%，报32.4港元，成交额1240.92万港 元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Hongqiao Group (01378) saw its stock price rise by 3.32% to HKD 32.4, with a trading volume of HKD 12.41 million following the announcement of a significant asset acquisition deal [1] Group 1: Company Announcement - China Hongqiao announced that its subsidiary, Hong Chuang Holdings, received approval from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's M&A Review Committee for a share issuance to acquire assets [1] - The proposed transaction involves issuing shares to acquire 100% equity of Hongtu Industrial held by Weiqiao Aluminum, Jiahui Investment, and Dongfang Asset Management, with a transaction value of RMB 63.5 billion [1] - This transaction is part of a strategy to return core aluminum assets to A-share listing, which is expected to enhance internal integration of aluminum assets and improve the company's overall competitiveness in the capital market [1]

消息面上，美国就业市场数据恶化推高了美联储降息预期。据美国劳工部周四发布的数据，截至12月6 日当周，初请人数增加4.4万人至23.6万人，为2020年3月以来最大增幅，此前一周的申请人数为三年多 来的最低水平。当前市场主流预期仍指向明年初继续降息，摩根大通、摩根士丹利与花旗一致预测明年 1月将再次降息。 国金证券指出，2025年全球主要经济体的内外政策开始进入实质性调整与碰撞阶段，俄乌/中东等冲突 常态化、大国博弈纵深化，加大了全球供应链断裂风险——将"安全"置于"成本"之上，全球经济延续弱 增长态势。欧美开启了降息周期，但主要为应对经济放缓而非刺激繁荣，在此背景下，有色金属或迎来 超级大周期。 智通财经APP获悉，有色股普遍高开，截至发稿，紫金矿业(02899)涨3.51%，报34.24港元；中国宏桥 (01378)涨3.32%，报32.4港元；灵宝黄金(03330)涨3.23%，报18.56港元；洛阳钼业(03993)涨2.8%，报 18.36港元；江西铜业股份(00358)涨2.57%，报34.28港元。 ...