↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： modest_ 来源：雪球 25年收益率15%左右 ， 赚钱主要靠电解铝 ， 招商银行 ， 港股高派息的小公司 ， 亏钱的是成都银行 、 格力 、 火电 。 在牛市的大环境下跑输 大盘 ， 和雪球满屏的高收益总结对比 ， 我这个收益实在有点拿不出手 。 24年吃了银行和红利板块的贝塔 ， 25年仍然重仓银行和吃股息的公司 ， 导致25年的业绩比较平庸 。 做的不好的另外的原因还有 忽视市场 ， 过 去自己主要把精力用在了基本面分析和估值判断 ， 忽略了市场 。 其实我以前的体系是有缺陷的 ， 一是因为价值是一个主观的东西 ， 有时候需要借助市场走势来确认 。 另外 ， 散户的研究是比较浅的 ， 完全忽 略市场很容易踩到价值陷阱 。 我这篇虽然反思多次提到了注重市场 ， 但是我担心会误导球友 ， 所以还是要强调 价值 （ 基本面和估值 ） 是基础 ， 在投资决策中估值和基本面 仍然占到90%的比重 ， 普通人坚持基本面和估值是盈利的基础 。 谈谈过去一年的教训和经验 ： 用我经常提 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that industrial metal prices have shown a significant upward trend, particularly for copper and tin, which are constrained by supply issues. Prices have gradually increased throughout the year, with copper reaching a historical high [14][15][39]. - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metal sector has been impressive, with a year-to-date weighted average increase of 100.46% as of December 11, 2025, outperforming major indices like the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 [26][33]. - The macroeconomic environment is expected to remain favorable for industrial metals in 2026, with continued liquidity support from the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and domestic policies aimed at boosting demand [39][10]. Group 2 - The report identifies AI and energy storage as significant drivers of marginal demand growth for copper and aluminum, with substantial capital expenditures from major cloud service providers expected to continue [45][58]. - For copper, the demand from AI data centers is projected to add approximately 26.8 thousand tons to total copper demand in 2026, driven by increased infrastructure investments [58][59]. - In the aluminum sector, while demand growth is anticipated, it is expected to be more limited compared to copper, with projected aluminum demand from data centers reaching around 78 thousand tons globally by 2026 [64][66]. Group 3 - The supply side for copper remains constrained due to ongoing production cuts and delays in new mining projects, which are expected to exacerbate structural shortages in the market [42][43]. - The aluminum market is facing a rigid supply ceiling domestically, with limited growth in production capacity and risks of shutdowns due to high electricity costs [43][44]. - The report recommends several companies with strong growth potential in the copper sector, including Shengtun Mining, Zangge Mining, and Zijin Mining, as well as companies in the aluminum sector like China Aluminum and China Hongqiao [11][39].

证券研究报告 | 行业策略 gszqdatemark 2026 01 01 年 月 日 有色金属 2026 年度策略：物少天成贵，势来价自高 贵金属：白银王者归来，黄金仍将闪耀。2026 年美联储仍有降息必要性，货 币政策基准情形将维持适度宽松。黄金方面，全球央行增持黄金热度不减；黄 金 ETF 往往在降息周期中持续流入。ETF 与央行共振下黄金牛市有望延续。 白银方面，2025 年白银 ETF 持仓显著提升，金融属性主导银价上涨。我们认 为，市场高估了工业需求的影响，而低估了金融属性所带来的投资需求拉动。 同时，尽管 2025 年银价涨幅超过黄金，但目前金银比仍然显示银价相对金价 低估。银价在 2025 年大幅上涨后，金银比依然位于 70 以上的历史偏高水平。 历史上看，金银比多数时间运行在 40-80 区间，目前金银比仍显示银价相对于 金价处于低估状态。 铜：供需缺口明确，铜价上行斜率提升。①宏观面：2026 年中美关键年份再 度重合，"关税退坡+财货双松"支撑铜价牛市加速。②供给端：供给矛盾在 2026 年依然存在，CAPEX 回升需要更高铜价激励。我们认为供给扰动的集中 发生也并非简单的"黑天鹅"事件 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in the prices of non-ferrous metal stocks, driven by new policies from the National Development and Reform Commission aimed at optimizing traditional industries, particularly in alumina and copper smelting [1] - Ganfeng Lithium (01772) increased by 4.04% to HKD 54.05, China Hongqiao (01378) rose by 4.17% to HKD 33.98, Shandong Gold (01787) gained 4.1% to HKD 36.02, Luoyang Molybdenum (03993) went up by 3.9% to HKD 19.99, and Zijin Mining (02899) increased by 3.76% to HKD 37 [1] - Morgan Stanley anticipates that the new policies may restrict the planning of new alumina production capacity and expects capacity consolidation to benefit industry leaders, while lower annual copper concentrate processing and refining fees may lead to a reduction in refined copper output by 2026 [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities points out that insufficient capital expenditure, limited resource supply, strong AI demand prospects, expanding fiscal deficits, and declining interest rates are creating a new resource pricing paradigm globally, leading to a feast in the non-ferrous sector [2] - The article notes that the distribution of physical resources between the US and non-US regions is uneven due to threats from US tariffs on key minerals, resulting in liquidity shortages in certain markets and increased capital inflow to long positions [2]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market for non-ferrous metals has seen significant gains, with several companies experiencing notable increases in their stock prices [1] - Ganfeng Lithium (01772.HK) rose by 4.04%, reaching HKD 54.05 [1] - China Hongqiao (01378.HK) increased by 4.17%, trading at HKD 33.98 [1] - Shandong Gold (01787.HK) saw a rise of 4.1%, with a stock price of HKD 36.02 [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum (03993.HK) gained 3.9%, priced at HKD 19.99 [1] - Zijin Mining (02899.HK) experienced a 3.76% increase, with shares at HKD 37 [1]

文 | 财华社 因元旦假期安排，12月31日港股市场仅开放上午半天交易，午后正式完成2025全年收官。 回望这一年，港股市场延续了2024年的涨势，再度走出强劲上涨行情，恒生指数全年累涨27.77%，恒生科技指数同步上涨23.45%，更值得关注的是，全 年成交量较往年显著放大，交投活跃度大幅提升，估值修复与产业景气共振之下，市场赚钱效应全面释放。 阶段轮动清晰：不同主线接力驱动市场上行 从板块轮动节奏来看，2025年港股呈现清晰的阶段性主线切换，从年初的AI科技热潮，到年中的创新药BD交易爆发，再到反内卷政策驱动的产业优化， 最终以有色金属板块的全年领跑画上句点，不同阶段的核心主线共同推动港股市场全年上行。 具体而言，年初阶段，DeepSeek赶在蛇年春节前发布了大模型DeepSeek-R1，直接惊艳全球。其"多快好省"的特性在给英伟达（NVDA.US）一记暴击之 外，也打开了中国资产的牛市之路。 在这一阶段，港股市场的科技板块成为绝对主角，恒生科技指数在2025年一季度累计上涨20.74%，远超同期恒生指数15.25%的涨幅。 资金则重点追捧算力基建、大模型研发及AI应用相关标的，不仅传统互联网大厂，如阿里 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in the prices of non-ferrous metal stocks, driven by new policies from the National Development and Reform Commission aimed at optimizing traditional industries, particularly in alumina and copper smelting [1] - Major non-ferrous metal companies such as Ganfeng Lithium, China Hongqiao, Shandong Gold, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Zijin Mining have seen substantial stock price increases, with Ganfeng Lithium rising by 4.04% to HKD 54.05, and China Hongqiao increasing by 4.17% to HKD 33.98 [1] - Morgan Stanley anticipates that the new policies may limit the planning of new alumina production capacity and that capacity consolidation will benefit industry leaders, while lower annual copper concentrate processing and refining fees may lead to reduced refined copper output by 2026 [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities points out that insufficient capital expenditure, limited resource supply, strong AI demand prospects, expanding fiscal deficits, and declining interest rates are creating a new resource pricing paradigm globally, leading to a feast in the non-ferrous sector [2] - The article notes that the distribution of physical resources between the US and non-US regions is uneven due to threats from US tariffs on key minerals, resulting in liquidity shortages in certain markets and increased capital inflow to long positions [2]

呈交日期: 2026年1月2日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 是 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01378 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 20,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.01 | USD | | 200,000,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | USD | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 20,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.01 | USD | | 200,000,000 | 本月底法定/註冊股本總額： USD 200,000,000 FF301 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年12月31日 狀態: 新提交 致 ...

Core Insights - The top three companies by stockholding ratio in the Hong Kong Stock Connect are China Telecom (71.90%), GCL-Poly Energy (69.96%), and Da Zhong Public Utilities (68.75%) [1][2] - The companies with the largest increase in stockholding over the last five trading days include SMIC (+1.092 billion), China Merchants Bank (+1.052 billion), and Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (+790 million) [1][2] - The companies with the largest decrease in stockholding over the last five trading days include China Mobile (-3.216 billion), Tencent Holdings (-1.107 billion), and the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (-465 million) [1][2] Stockholding Ratios - China Telecom (00728) holds 99.79 million shares with a stockholding ratio of 71.90% [2] - GCL-Poly Energy (01330) holds 28.3 million shares with a stockholding ratio of 69.96% [2] - Da Zhong Public Utilities (01635) holds 36.7 million shares with a stockholding ratio of 68.75% [2] - Other notable companies in the top 20 include China Shenhua (66.39%) and China Merchants Energy (64.43%) [2] Recent Trading Activity - The top three companies with increased holdings in the last five trading days are: - SMIC (00981): +1.092 billion, +15.28 million shares [2][3] - China Merchants Bank (03968): +1.052 billion, +19.92 million shares [2][3] - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388): +790 million, +1.93 million shares [2][3] - The top three companies with decreased holdings in the last five trading days are: - China Mobile (00941): -3.216 billion, -39.36 million shares [2][3] - Tencent Holdings (00700): -1.107 billion, -1.84 million shares [2][3] - Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800): -465 million, -18.01 million shares [2][3]

2025年，资本市场热闹非凡，港、A两市迎来大涨，AI、机器人、创新药等明星赛道热度不减，长期霸占市场焦点话题。 然而，从全年涨幅来看，真正显著领涨的板块，却是包括黄金白银贵金属在内的有色金属板块，截至12月31日收盘，有色金属全年飙涨94.73%，真正做 到了遥遥领先。 其中，虽然在白银期货最后一周因为飙涨太疯狂引来监管多次出手降温而大幅回落，但白银、黄金期货价格年内超130%、40%，甚至多次出现疯狂逼空 行情，并带动其他工业有色品种强势上涨。 在股票市场，除了贵金属外，铜、铝、钴、锂、稀土等等细分品类概念股同样进入了超级上涨大周期，年内多只有色行业龙头涨幅强势翻倍并不断获得机 构上调评级看好。 机构普遍认为，展望2026年，随着货币市场环境继续趋好，行业供需格局继续偏紧等综合因素作用下，有色板块依旧有较不错的上升空间。 01 港股有色全面暴涨，铜、贵金属涨幅居前 港股市场作为机构资金为主的成熟市场，价值导向相对A股更加明显，也因此造就了港股的优质价值股表现往往表现好于A股同类。 从板块涨幅来看，2025年港股有色板块的表现集体显著领先其他行业，其中铜概念大幅飙升超261%，断层领先其他板块，黄金及贵金属 ...