中国宏桥 20250702 摘要 中国宏桥通过宏创控股实现部分资产回 A，注入山东宏拓实业旗下电解 铝和氧化铝资产，但不包括铝土矿和自备电厂。2024 年宏拓实业贡献 约 180 亿元净利润，是中国宏桥主要盈利来源。 2025 年中国宏桥盈利稳健，氧化铝价格下降影响利润约 60 亿元，但煤 炭价格下跌有效弥补，预计煤炭均价下降 200 元/吨，增厚利润约 16 亿 元，成本优势显著。 中国宏桥利润受铝价、氧化锂价格、煤炭价格和预备阳极价格影响显著。 例如，铝价每上涨 1,000 元，归母净利润增加 37 亿元；煤炭价格每下 降 100 元，归母净利润增加 16 亿元。 能源市场变化对中国宏桥影响大，能源价格低时，公司自发电成本降低， 增强竞争力。公司将部分产能转移至云南，利用水电成本优势，应对煤 炭价格上涨。 中国宏桥区位优势明显，滨州港口直接运输进口铝土矿，每吨氧化铝节 省约 300 元运费。氧化铝和电解铝产能集中在同一工业园区，进一步降 低短途运输费用。 Q&A 中国红桥公司近年来的债券发行情况如何？ 中国红桥近年来的债券发行利率不断走低，特别是从 2024 年以来尤为明显。 公司一年期公司债券发行利率从 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2][7][17] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of approximately RMB 135.1 billion for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 35% compared to RMB 100.1 billion in the first half of 2024 [7] - The growth in profit is attributed to higher sales prices and increased sales volume of aluminum alloy and alumina products, along with a decrease in coal prices leading to lower electricity costs [7] - The company has a high dividend yield of approximately 11%, with a dividend payout ratio exceeding 60% for the year 2024, indicating strong long-term investment value [7] - The supply-demand dynamics in the aluminum market are favorable, with domestic production capacity nearing its limit and demand from sectors like new energy vehicles expected to grow [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 133,624 million - 2024: RMB 156,169 million - 2025E: RMB 152,307 million - 2026E: RMB 158,018 million - 2027E: RMB 158,736 million [6][8] - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: RMB 11,461 million - 2024: RMB 22,372 million - 2025E: RMB 22,419 million - 2026E: RMB 24,585 million - 2027E: RMB 25,293 million [6][8] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be RMB 2.41 for 2025, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 6.8 [6][8]

智通财经APP获悉，汇丰发布研报称，中国宏桥(01378)预计2025年上半年净利润同比增长约35%，高于 该行预期。汇丰维持对中国宏桥"买入"评级，目标价由17.10港元上调至18.50港元。 消息面上，中国宏桥发布盈喜公告，预计2025年上半年净利润较去年同期增长约35%。增长主要得益于 铝合金及氧化铝产品销售价格和销量均同比上升，带动相关产品毛利增加。 展望2025年下半年，汇丰认为，铝行业基本面仍然稳健，受到4500万吨产能上限、持续的"以旧换新"补 贴、强劲的电网投资、电动车销售增长以及中美贸易谈判转暖带来的出口预期改善所支持。不过，随着 季节性因素的影响，自6月下旬起，表观需求增长已出现逐步放缓。该行还担忧在经历了2025年上半年 政策推动后中国光伏装机增速可能放缓(光伏行业约占中国铝需求总量的8%)、以及"以旧换新"政策效果 可能开始递减，对需求构成下行风险。 此外，汇丰补充称，对于中国宏桥而言，由于2024年第四季度氧化铝价格异常高企，公司2025年下半年 要实现利润率扩张和盈利增长，可能需要铝价在强劲需求推动下继续上涨，同时能源成本进一步下降。 汇丰指出，中国宏桥对2025年上半年净利润的增 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed down 0.17% at 24,284.15 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.07% to 5,341.43 points, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index decreased by 0.47% to 8,762.47 points [2] - The automotive, pharmaceutical, and banking sectors showed weakness, while the metals sector experienced gains [4] Metals Sector Performance - The metals sector saw significant gains, with Jiangxi Copper rising over 7%, Tianqi Lithium and Luoyang Molybdenum both increasing over 6%, and Zijin Mining among the top performers [4] - Notable stock performances included Luoyang Molybdenum at 6.26% with a market cap of 191.02 billion, Tianqi Lithium at 6.78% with a market cap of 56.97 billion, and Ganfeng Lithium at 2.74% with a market cap of 69.64 billion [5] Commodity Price Outlook - Goldman Sachs forecasts that copper prices will peak at approximately $10,050 per ton by August 2025 due to tightening supply in markets outside the U.S. [5] - Ping An Securities reports that the weakening of the U.S. dollar credit system will continue to drive precious metal prices higher, while industrial metals like copper and aluminum are expected to benefit from a loose monetary environment [5] Automotive Sector Dynamics - Xiaomi Group's stock rose by 3.6%, while major automotive stocks like Xpeng Motors, NIO, and BYD saw declines of 3.17%, 1.84%, and 1.19% respectively [6][7] - Market analysts suggest that the automotive sector may be impacted by Xiaomi's competitive pricing strategy for its new YU7 series, with expectations of monthly sales reaching 60,000 to 80,000 units [7] Banking Sector Trends - Chinese bank stocks experienced slight declines, with Luzhou Bank, Chongqing Bank, and China Merchants Bank dropping by 3.49%, 2.91%, and 2.39% respectively [8] - Recent reports indicate that insurance funds have been favoring high-dividend bank stocks, but this trend may be slowing down as investment teams shift focus towards technology innovation board companies [8] Financial Sector Developments - Huaxing Capital Holdings saw a significant intraday rise of nearly 38% before closing up 4.67% at HKD 4.48 per share, following its announcement of a $100 million investment in the Web 3.0 and cryptocurrency asset space [11] - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission announced an increase in position limits for futures and options contracts on major indices, effective July 2, 2025, aimed at enhancing market flexibility [12]

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to see significant growth in net profit from 2025 to 2027, driven by rising aluminum prices and improved sales performance in electrolytic aluminum and alumina products [1][2]. Financial Projections - Projected net profits for China Hongqiao from 2025 to 2027 are 22.759 billion, 26.169 billion, and 28.969 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 1.73%, 14.98%, and 10.70% respectively [1]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 2.45, 2.82, and 3.12 yuan per share for the same years, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 6.9, 6.0, and 5.4 times [1]. Profit Growth Drivers - The company's net profit for the first half of 2025 is expected to increase by approximately 35% year-on-year, reaching around 12.359 billion yuan, following a net profit of 9.155 billion yuan in 2024 [1][2]. - The increase in profit is attributed to higher sales volumes and prices of electrolytic aluminum and alumina, with the average price of electrolytic aluminum rising by 2.51% to 20,297 yuan per ton [2]. Industry Dynamics - The alumina price has significantly decreased in 2025, dropping from 5,683 yuan per ton at the beginning of the year to 3,175 yuan per ton by June 23, 2025, which may stabilize profits in the alumina segment [3]. - The average profit for alumina in the first half of 2025 is projected to be 302 yuan per ton, a decrease of 430 yuan per ton year-on-year, but the declining trend in alumina prices is expected to slow down [3]. Capacity Expansion - The company is advancing its capacity replacement strategy, with the Yunnan Wenshan project having completed an initial capacity of 1.074 million tons per year and a second phase of 950,000 tons nearing completion [4]. - The Yunnan Honghe project, which began construction in August 2023, is planned to have a capacity of 1.93 million tons per year, with an initial production line expected to be completed by the end of June 2025 [4].

Market Overview - The overall market is performing well, with the Hang Seng Index rising to nearly 24,200 points, showing increased trading activity with a total turnover of 230 billion [1][3] - Investor sentiment appears optimistic, with expectations of testing the 24,500 level in the short term [1][3] Investment Products - There is a notable flow of funds in the warrants and structured products market, with some investors taking profits from bullish positions while others are starting to deploy bearish positions near the 24,400-24,500 range [3] - Specific products such as put warrants are gaining attention due to their lack of recall risk and potential for leverage, with examples showing leverage of around 10 times [3][4] Stock Performance - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEX) shares rose by 4%, closing around 414 HKD, with a strong performance in related warrants [7][8] - Xiaomi's stock increased by approximately 3.74%, closing at 56.9 HKD, driven by anticipation of an upcoming product launch [12][16] - China Hongqiao's stock price has risen from 9 HKD to around 17 HKD, with a 35% increase in mid-term profits reported [16][17] - Meituan's stock has been underperforming, with a recent decline of 1%, but there is a flow of funds into bullish warrants as investors see potential at the 130 HKD level [19] - China Life's stock has risen from 13 HKD to around 19 HKD, with some investors starting to deploy bearish positions [23] - BYD's stock is fluctuating between 120-130 HKD, with recent inflows into bullish positions as it shows signs of potential rebound [27][28] Technical Analysis - Support and resistance levels for the Hang Seng Index are identified at 23,634 and 24,474 points respectively [4] - For individual stocks, technical signals indicate a "buy" for China Hongqiao and China Life, while Meituan shows a "sell" signal [19][23] - The leverage ratios for various warrants are highlighted, with some products offering leverage of 4 to 11 times, depending on the underlying stock and expiration dates [9][12][27]

就铝价来看，其实从行业的高频数据便足以找到铝价强势运行的线索。公开数据显示，截至6月20日，LME铝现货结 算价为2529美元/吨，相比于上周上涨44美元/吨，周环比增加1.8%，相比于去年同期上涨84美元/吨，年同比增加 3.4%；长江有色A00铝的均价为20700元/吨，相比于去年同期亦上涨了280元/吨，年同比增加了1.4%。 在披露极具"含金量"的盈喜公告后，中国宏桥（01378）的股价再一次高开高走，强势创出又一个历史新高。 6月23日晚间，中国宏桥发布正面盈利预告称，受益于铝产品价格上涨等利好因素，2025年上半年公司的净利润与上 年同期相比，预计将会增加35%左右。 值得一提的是，2024年前六月中国宏桥的净利润为100.08亿元（人民币，下同），这一利润规模足足较2023年同期增 加了236.7%。在去年高基数的基础上，今年上半年中国宏桥的净利润仍然劲增超过三成，这显然也给资本市场带来 了不小的震撼。公告次日，宏桥股价高开高走，盘中一度升至17.28港元，对应涨幅达到8.68%，股价续创历史新 高。 根据盈喜公告，中国宏桥净利润继续强势兑现的主要原因既有公司铝合金产品及氧化铝产品销售价格同比上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosheng Securities predicts that China Hongqiao (01378) will achieve net profits of 21.7 billion, 23.1 billion, and 25 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 6.8, 6.4, and 5.9 times, maintaining a "Buy" rating. The company is expected to achieve significant growth through overseas expansion and deep integration with upstream and downstream partners, benefiting from its undervalued position in the Hong Kong stock market [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 12.36 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 35%. This substantial growth is primarily attributed to the rise in sales prices and quantities of aluminum alloy products, along with a decrease in electricity costs [1]. - The significant increase in the company's performance is mainly driven by the year-on-year growth in aluminum prices and a substantial decrease in electricity prices, leading to lower costs [2]. Group 2: Cost Analysis - As of June 23, 2025, the electrolytic aluminum price was 20,300 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, while the alumina price was 3,449 yuan per ton, showing a year-on-year decrease of 1% [2]. - The self-generated electricity cost in Shandong for the first half of 2025 was 0.34 yuan per kWh, a decrease of 30% year-on-year and 20% quarter-on-quarter. The purchased electricity price in Shandong was 0.62 yuan per kWh, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.1% [2]. Group 3: Capacity Transition - The company is accelerating the capacity transfer project for electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan. On March 18, 2025, it shut down the 72.3 million tons original aluminum production line project in Binzhou, replacing it with new capacities of 12.147 million tons and 11.906 million tons [3]. - The C series of the Binzhou Hongnuo project, which had a capacity of 24.1 million tons, has been completely shut down, with all associated equipment dismantled and no longer capable of resuming production [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 12.36 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 35%, driven by higher sales prices and increased sales volume of aluminum alloy products, along with a decrease in electricity prices [1]. - The significant growth in profits is attributed to the increase in aluminum prices and a substantial decrease in electricity costs [1]. - The company is accelerating the transfer of electrolytic aluminum production capacity, having shut down a 721,000-ton production line and replacing it with new capacity [2]. - The company is positioned for significant growth through overseas expansion and deep integration with upstream and downstream partners, while also benefiting from a notable undervaluation as a Hong Kong-listed stock [3]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to be 150.949 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of -3.3% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 21.676 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of -3.1% [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 2.33 yuan in 2025 [4]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 6.8 times in 2025, decreasing to 5.9 times by 2027 [4].

中国宏桥(01378.HK)绩后涨超8%，集团预计2025年上半年净利润同比增加35%左右。 ...