Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for China Hongqiao (01378.HK) [1][3]. Core Views - The report highlights that the increase in alumina prices has significantly enhanced the profitability of the alumina segment, with a notable increase in both revenue and net profit for the third quarter of 2024 [1]. - The company has a well-integrated industrial chain, with substantial production capacities in electrolytic aluminum and alumina, which strengthens its raw material security [1]. - The report anticipates that the transition to green energy will support long-term development and potentially enhance the company's valuation [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1-3 2024, Shandong Hongqiao achieved revenue of 1100.68 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 12.47%, and a net profit of 157.54 billion RMB, up 141.43% year-on-year [1]. - For Q3 2024, revenue was 380.23 billion RMB, reflecting a 13.86% year-on-year growth and a 1.99% quarter-on-quarter increase, while net profit reached 59.61 billion RMB, up 38.01% year-on-year and 9.35% quarter-on-quarter [1]. Production and Pricing Insights - The report notes that in Q3 2024, electrolytic aluminum production in Shandong is expected to reach full capacity of 1.243 million tons, with alumina production also running at full capacity [1]. - The market price for alumina in Shandong increased by 290 RMB/ton, while the price for electrolytic aluminum decreased by 975 RMB/ton [1]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 177.96 billion RMB, 200.65 billion RMB, and 219.85 billion RMB for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 6, 5, and 5 [1][2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the company's integrated layout in alumina, bauxite, and electrolytic aluminum, which enhances its operational efficiency and profitability [1].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance [2][3]. Core Insights - The company is a global leader in aluminum production with a comprehensive integrated supply chain, including bauxite mining, alumina production, electrolytic aluminum, and deep processing of aluminum products [2][14]. - The company achieved a revenue of 73.59 billion RMB in H1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.0%, and a net profit of 9.16 billion RMB, up 272.7% year-on-year, driven by rising aluminum prices and decreasing raw material costs [2][19]. - The domestic supply of bauxite is tightening, leading to increased reliance on imports, which enhances the resource attributes at the mining level and benefits the company due to its overseas resource layout [2][27]. - The electrolytic aluminum production capacity is nearing its ceiling, with limited supply growth expected, while demand from new energy vehicles and the power sector is anticipated to provide a boost, leading to a favorable long-term supply-demand balance [2][26]. - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio, with a cumulative dividend of 38.17 billion RMB since its listing in 2011 and an average payout ratio of 47.2% over the past five years [2][24]. Summary by Sections 1. High Elasticity and High Dividends, Leading Integrated Layout in Electrolytic Aluminum - The company has a global leading position in electrolytic aluminum production with a complete integrated supply chain [2][14]. - In H1 2024, the company’s revenue and net profit saw significant increases, attributed to favorable market conditions [2][19]. - The company has consistently maintained a high dividend payout, reflecting its stable financial performance [2][24]. 2. Electrolytic Aluminum Industry: Capacity Approaching Ceiling, Tightening Supply at the Mining Level - The domestic supply of bauxite is becoming increasingly constrained, leading to a higher dependency on imports [2][27]. - The report highlights the limited growth in electrolytic aluminum supply due to capacity constraints and the anticipated demand from emerging sectors [2][26]. 3. Advantages of Integrated Layout, Full Release of Profit Elasticity - The company’s strategic overseas resource layout positions it well to benefit from rising bauxite prices [2][27]. - The report projects continued growth in the company’s profitability due to its cost advantages and market positioning [2][3]. 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits of 19 billion RMB, 20.2 billion RMB, and 21.4 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with a corresponding PE ratio of 6x [2][3].

30 Sep 2024 CMB 国际全球市场 | 股票研究 | 公司更新 中国虹桥(1378 香港) 预计中国刺激后 ASP 会上升 我们相信铝（Al）是受中国推出一系列强力市场政策影响最为敏感的行业之一 。这将与美元因美国开始降息周期而走弱以及铝相对较有限的新供应量相结合 ，有望在短期内推动铝价上涨，成为虹桥的关键催化剂。我们上调了2024年至 2026年的盈利预测，增幅为9-12%，主要由于铝价假设上调。据估计，每1%的 铝价上涨将使虹桥的每股收益增加4%。目前，虹桥正处于中期估值水平（2024 年市盈率7倍），具有吸引力的股息收益率7%。基于不变的9.8倍2024年市盈率 ，我们新的目标价为19.6港元（此前为17.9港元）。维持 BUY . ... 近期需求将得到政策的支持。 我们估计，中国的建筑（包括房地产和基 础设施）以及汽车市场分别占全球人工智能需求的16%和14%。我们认为，中 国政府的政策将有助于稳定上述需求的预期。从长期来看，我们继续看好汽车 轻量化趋势和太阳能安装的快速增长，这些因素将成为人工智能结构性增长的 动力。 新供应有限... 中国8月份的铝产量同比增长放缓至1.3%（低于6月和 ...

30 Sep 2024 Earnings Summary CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update China Hongqiao (1378 HK) Expect higher ASP following China's stimulus We believe aluminum (Al) is one of the sectors that is highly sensitive to the launch of the series of forceful pro-market policies in China. This, together with the weakness of dollar as a results of the start of rate-cut cycle in the US and a relatively limited new supply of Al, will likely boost the near-term Al price which will serve as ke ...

INTERIM REPORT 2024 中期報告 2024 中期報告 目錄 公司資料 2 財務摘要 4 主席報告 5 管理層討論與分析 9 補充資料 18 中期簡明綜合財務資料之審閱報告 25 簡明綜合損益及其他全面收益表 26 簡明綜合財務狀況表 27 簡明綜合權益變動表 29 簡明綜合現金流量表 31 中期簡明綜合財務資料附註 33 公司資料 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------------------------------| | | | | | | | | 執行董事 | | | | | 薪酬委員會 | | 張波先生 （主席、行政總裁、授權代表） | | | | | 韓本文先生 （薪酬委員會主席） | | 鄭淑良女士 （副主席） | | | | | 張波先生 | | 張瑞蓮女士 （副總裁、財務總監） 王雨婷女士 （企業融資部主管） | | | | | 文献軍先 ...

研究报告 Research Report 2 Sep 2024 中国宏桥 China Hongqiao Group (1378 HK) 铝产品价格上涨助力盈利提升，产业链一体化成本优势显著 Rising prices of aluminum products helped improving profitability, cost advantage of industrial chain integration is significant [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------| | [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM \n评级 \n现价 \n目标价 | 优于大市 OUTPERFORM \nHK$10.70 \nHK$15.12 | | HTI ESG ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, achieving 9.155 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 272.7% [3] - The company benefits from rising alumina prices, with a notable performance across its three main business segments: aluminum products, alumina, and aluminum processing [3] - The integrated business model enhances profitability, with overall gross margin improving to approximately 24.2%, up by 15.2 percentage points year-on-year [3] - Future net profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 19.232 billion yuan, 20.628 billion yuan, and 22.144 billion yuan respectively, reflecting an upward revision based on cost optimization [3] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of 73.592 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12% [3] - The revenue from aluminum alloy products was 49.312 billion yuan, up 7.25% year-on-year, with production and sales volumes increasing by 5.3% and 0.5% respectively [3] - Alumina revenue reached 16.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.72%, with sales volume up approximately 2.4% [3] - The company declared an interim dividend of 0.59 HKD per share, compared to 0.34 HKD in the same period last year [3] Profitability - The gross margin for aluminum alloy products was approximately 24.6%, up by 15.9 percentage points year-on-year, driven by rising sales prices and declining raw material costs [3] - The gross margin for alumina products was about 25.4%, an increase of 16.5 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to higher alumina prices [3] - The company’s overall profitability is expected to improve further due to the upward trend in alumina and electrolytic aluminum prices [3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain its integrated advantage in the aluminum industry, with projected net profits for the next three years showing significant growth [3] - The price forecasts for alumina and electrolytic aluminum are expected to remain favorable, supporting the company's earnings potential [3]

高股息进一步体现,公允价值变动及减值制约业绩释放 中国宏桥(1378. HK)/有色金属 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024 年 8 月 21 日 评级:买入(维持)公司盈利预测及估值 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------|-------------|--------------------------------|-----------------|-----------------| | 市场价格:10.74 港元 | 指标 | | 2022A | 2023A | | 分析师:刘耀齐执业证书编号: S0740523080004 | 增长率 yoy% | 营业收入(百万元)净利润(百万元) | 134,81415%8.702 | 136,1651%11,461 | | Email: liuyq07@ zts.com.cn | 增长车 yoy% | | -46% | 32% | | | | | | 1.21 | 10.7P/E8.14.43.83.1Email: guozw@zts.com.cn ...

证券研究报告 | 2024年08月20日 证券分析师：刘孟峦 证券分析师：焦方冉 收盘价 10.36 港元 总市值/流通市值 98167/98167 百万港元 52 周最高价/最低价 13.56/5.05 港元 近 3 个月日均成交额 491.46 百万港元 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------| | 010-88005312 | 021-60933177 | | liumengluan@guosen.com.cnS0980520040001 | jiaofangran@guosen.com.cn S0980522080003 | | 基础数据 | | | 投资评级 | 优于大市(维持) | | 合理估值 | | | 市场走势 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------|---------|---------|---------|---------|------- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2024, with revenue rising approximately 12.0% year-on-year to RMB 73.592 billion and net profit attributable to shareholders increasing approximately 272.7% to RMB 9.155 billion. A mid-term dividend of HKD 0.59 per share was also announced [4] - The company's performance was driven by increased production and sales across its aluminum and alumina businesses, with aluminum alloy production rising 5.3% to 3.221 million tons and sales increasing 0.5% to 2.837 million tons. Alumina sales reached 5.507 million tons, up 2.4%, while aluminum processing products saw a production increase of 30.6% to 493,000 tons and sales up 35.9% to 379,000 tons [4] - The decline in coal and anode costs contributed to profit growth, with average coal prices dropping approximately 20.1% and 7.2% in the first two quarters of 2024. However, financial instruments' fair value changes negatively impacted profits by RMB 1.615 billion [4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company's stock price is currently at HKD 10.36, with a market performance comparison showing a relative decline against the Hang Seng Index [2][3] Financial Data and Forecasts - The company’s total revenue for 2024 is projected to be RMB 140.681 billion, with net profit forecasts of RMB 18.185 billion, RMB 20.251 billion, and RMB 21.309 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [6][7] - Key financial metrics include a projected EPS of RMB 1.92 for 2024 and a dividend payout ratio of 55.9% [5][6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the company's strong profit performance, coupled with rising product prices and a favorable cost structure, enhances its investment value. The net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to RMB 18.185 billion, RMB 20.251 billion, and RMB 21.309 billion respectively, maintaining the "Buy" rating [5][6]