有色金属/工业金属 公 司 研 究 中国宏桥（01378.HK） 2024 年 08 月 19 日 业绩充分受益铝价上涨，可转债记账影响非经损益 ——公司信息更新报告 投资评级：买入（维持） | --- | --- | |--------------------|--------------| | 日期 | 2024/8/16 | | 当前股价(港元) | 10.320 | | 一年最高最低(港元) | 13.560/5.170 | | 总市值(亿港元) | 977.88 | | 流通市值(亿港元) | 977.88 | | 总股本(亿股) | 94.76 | | 流通港股(亿股) | 94.76 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 28.4 | 股价走势图 中国宏桥 恒生指数 -40% 0% 40% 80% 120% 2023-08 2023-12 2024-04 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《成本企稳+铝行业高景气，电解铝龙 头扬帆起航—公司首次覆盖报告》 -2024.6.12 | --- | --- | |--------------------------|-------------------- ...

19 Aug 2024 CMB 国际全球市场 | 股票研究 | 公司更新 中国虹桥 （ 1378 香港 ） 1H24 净利润同比 + 2.7 倍 ， 超预期 鸿桥的净利润达到人民币91.6亿元（同比增长270%），这比6月预估的增长220%要好。若排 除可转换债券（CB）的公允价值损失，核心净利润甚至会更高，达到人民币105亿元（同比增 长330%）。强劲的利润增长主要得益于铝（Al）和氧化铝的单位毛利率超预期的扩张：铝的 单位毛利率从每吨人民币4277元同比增长2倍至每吨人民币4277元，氧化铝的单位毛利率则 从每吨人民币748元同比增长230%至每吨人民币748元。鸿桥提议的中期股息为每股港币 0.59元，代表约57%的派息比率。最新的上海铝价（含增值税）从8月初的每吨人民币18835 元反弹至每吨人民币19310元。我们认为近期股价回调是一个买入机会。我们预计每1%的铝 价格上涨将提升鸿桥的盈利约4%，当前价格提供了超过8%的吸引人收益。基于2024年的市 盈率9.8倍的评估，我们的目标价保持不变，为港币17.9元。维持评级。BUY. 铝合金产品 （ 1H24 占收入的 67% ） ：上半年该部门收入同 ...

19 Aug 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update China Hongqiao (1378 HK) Net profit 1H24 +2.7x YoY, beat expectations Hongqiao's net profit came in at RMB9.16bn (+2.7x YoY), which is better than the pre-announced profit growth of 2.2x in Jun. Excluding the fair value loss of convertible bonds (CB), the core net profit would be even higher at RMB10.5bn (+3.3x YoY). The strong profit growth was driven by higher-than-expected unit gross margin expansion for both aluminum (Al) (+ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Hongqiao (01378.HK) based on the expected increase in aluminum prices and significant cost reductions enhancing earnings elasticity [1]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 73.59 billion yuan for H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12%, and a net profit of 10.01 billion yuan, up 236.7% year-on-year, exceeding the previous profit forecast [1]. - The strong performance is attributed to rising prices of electrolytic aluminum and alumina, alongside a robust production capacity recovery in Yunnan [1]. - The company has a well-integrated industrial chain, with a total electrolytic aluminum capacity of 6.459 million tons and alumina capacity of 19.5 million tons, ensuring strong raw material supply [1]. - Future growth is supported by the transition to green energy, with a focus on hydropower in Yunnan, which is expected to enhance long-term development [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company produced 3.221 million tons of electrolytic aluminum, a 5.3% increase year-on-year, with alumina sales reaching 5.507 million tons, up 2.4% year-on-year [1]. - The average profit per ton for alumina in Q2 was 875 yuan, reflecting improved profitability in the sector [1]. - The mid-term dividend for H1 2024 is set at 0.59 HKD per share, totaling approximately 5.59 billion HKD, with a payout ratio of about 56% [1]. Future Outlook - The report highlights several future growth drivers, including the completion of the industrial chain integration, cost advantages from declining coal prices, and the strategic shift of electrolytic aluminum capacity to Yunnan [1]. - The company is also expanding its resource base by participating in a Guinea iron ore project, which is expected to provide additional returns [1]. - Forecasted net profits for 2024-2026 are 17.796 billion yuan, 20.065 billion yuan, and 21.985 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 5, 4, and 4 times [1].

证券分析师： 陈晨 S0350522110007 chenc09@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 王璇 S0350523080001 wangx15@ghzq.com.cn 研究所： 最近一年走势 相对恒生指数表现 2024/08/16 表现 1M 3M 12M 中国宏桥 -3.0% -11.3% 54.2% 恒生指数 -1.7% -10.0% -4.9% 市场数据 2024/08/16 当前价格（港元） 10.32 52 周价格区间（港元） 5.17-13.56 总市值（百万港元） 97,787.56 流通市值（百万港元） 97,787.56 总股本（万股） 947,553.84 流通股本（万股） 947,553.84 日均成交额（百万港元） 396.18 近一月换手（%） 323.02 其他：公允价值变动及减值对业绩有一定影响。根据公司公告，2024 年上半年公司其他开支 5.96 亿元和金融工具公允价值变动亏损 16.1 亿元，其他开支主要是物业、厂房和设备的减值亏损 5.3 亿元；金融 工具公允价值变动主要是可换股债券的衍生工具部分亏损 13.9 亿 元。若剔除两部分非经营性因素影响，公司业绩表 ...

证券研究报告 港股公司|公司点评|中国宏桥（01378） 2024H1 业绩大幅增长，铝产业链一体 化优势凸显 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年08月18日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 公司发布 2024 年上半年度业绩，2024 年上半年公司实现营业收入 735.92 亿元，同比增长 11.95%；实现归母净利润 91.55 亿元，同比增长 272.66%；基本每股收益 0.966 元，拟每股派 发现金股利 0.59 港元。我们预计公司 2024-2026 年营业收入分别为 1327.9/1331.6/1355.8 亿元，分别同比-0.62%/+0.28%/+1.82%，归母净利润分别为 195.9/212.7/225.9 亿元，分别同 比增长 70.93%/8.58%/6.22%，EPS 分别为 2.07/2.24/2.38 元，当前股价对应 P/E 分别为 4.99/4.60/4.33 倍，维持"买入"评级。 |分析师及联系人 丁士涛 刘依然 周志璐 SAC：S0590523090001 SAC：S0590523110010 SAC：S0590524060001 请务必 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Hongqiao (1378.HK) is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights a significant increase in both volume and price of aluminum products, leading to substantial growth in performance. The company achieved a revenue of 73.592 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.95%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 9.155 billion yuan, up 272.66% year-on-year, with a non-recurring net profit of 10.77 billion yuan, an increase of 352.68% [1] - The company continues to maintain a high dividend payout ratio, with an interim dividend of 0.59 HKD per share, a 73.5% increase, resulting in a dividend yield of 5.72% as of August 16, 2024 [1] - China Hongqiao is positioned as a leading integrated player in the aluminum industry, expected to enjoy high profit elasticity due to its comprehensive supply chain and production capacity [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company reported: - Revenue from electrolytic aluminum of 49.3 billion yuan, a 7% increase, with a gross margin of 24.6%, up 15.9 percentage points - Revenue from alumina of 16.2 billion yuan, a 20% increase, with a gross margin of 25.4%, up 16.5 percentage points - Revenue from aluminum processing of 7.6 billion yuan, a 34% increase, with a gross margin of 21.0%, up 7.4 percentage points [1] Production Capacity and Supply Chain - As of March 2024, the company has an annual alumina production capacity of approximately 19.5 million tons, with a self-sufficiency rate of 100%. The company also has a total electrolytic aluminum production capacity of 6.46 million tons per year [1] - The Guinea bauxite project ensures a stable supply of raw materials, while the company is also diversifying its bauxite supply sources [1] Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is as follows: - 2024: 19.081 billion yuan - 2025: 21.867 billion yuan - 2026: 23.947 billion yuan - Corresponding P/E ratios are projected to be 4.7, 4.1, and 3.8 respectively [2][3]

证券研究报告 | 半年报点评 gszqdatemark 2024 08 17 年 月 日 中国宏桥（01378.HK） 铝行业高景气&提质增效，2024 年上半年利润创历史新高 2024 年上半年公司受益于"量价齐升"归母净利创历史新高，公司有望 通过降本增效持续增厚业绩。公司已于 8 月 16 日公布 2024 年上半年业 绩，2024 年上半年公司实现营收 735.9 亿元，同比+12.0%；实现归母净 利润 91.5 亿元，同比+272.7%；扣非归母净利润 107.7 亿元，同比 +352.7%；基本每股收益 0.97 元，同比+273%。净利润大幅增加主要系 铝及氧化铝价格增长及公司提质增效等影响。随着公司云南电解铝生产基 地搬迁完成，电解铝生产成本有望进一步下移，同时，铝价在国内供给刚 性及加息后周期维持高位预期，并有望伴随美联储降息及新能源相关绿色 用铝占比提升带来定价中枢上移，"量价齐升"持续增厚公司业绩弹性。 2024 年 H1 煤炭及预焙阳极价格同比-20.9%/-28.6%，公司铝合金生 产优势凸显。1）量：2024 年 H1 氧化铝销量 550.7 万吨，同比+2.4%； 铝合金产量 ...

证券研究报告 | 半年报点评 gszqdatemark 2024 08 17 年 月 日 中国宏桥（01378.HK） 铝行业高景气&提质增效，2024 年上半年利润创历史新高 2024 年上半年公司受益于"量价齐升"归母净利创历史新高，公司有望 通过降本增效持续增厚业绩。公司已于 8 月 16 日公布 2024 年上半年业 绩，2024 年上半年公司实现营收 735.9 亿元，同比+12.0%；实现归母净 利润 91.5 亿元，同比+272.7%；扣非归母净利润 107.7 亿元，同比 +352.7%；基本每股收益 0.97 元，同比+273%。净利润大幅增加主要系 铝及氧化铝价格增长及公司提质增效等影响。随着公司云南电解铝生产基 地搬迁完成，电解铝生产成本有望进一步下移，同时，铝价在国内供给刚 性及加息后周期维持高位预期，并有望伴随美联储降息及新能源相关绿色 用铝占比提升带来定价中枢上移，"量价齐升"持续增厚公司业绩弹性。 2024 年 H1 煤炭及预焙阳极价格同比-20.9%/-28.6%，公司铝合金生 产优势凸显。1）量：2024 年 H1 氧化铝销量 550.7 万吨，同比+2.4%； 铝合金产量 ...

Financial Performance - Revenue increased by approximately 12.0% year-on-year, amounting to RMB 73,592,249,000[2] - Gross profit surged by approximately 202.1% year-on-year, reaching RMB 17,801,761,000[2] - Profit for the period rose by approximately 236.7% year-on-year, totaling RMB 10,007,876,000[2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders increased by approximately 272.7% year-on-year, amounting to RMB 9,154,911,000[2] - Basic earnings per share rose by approximately 273.0% year-on-year, reaching RMB 0.966[2] - The group's revenue from aluminum product sales for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 73,592,249 thousand, an increase of 11.4% compared to RMB 65,733,870 thousand for the same period in 2023[15] - Revenue from liquid aluminum alloy reached RMB 45,216,442 thousand, up from RMB 40,359,290 thousand, reflecting a growth of 10.3%[15] - The revenue from aluminum alloy processing products increased significantly to RMB 7,582,091 thousand, compared to RMB 5,644,526 thousand, marking a growth of 34.3%[15] - Basic and diluted earnings per share for the six months ended June 30, 2024, were RMB 9,154,911,000 compared to RMB 2,456,623,000 for the same period in 2023, representing a significant increase[22] Dividends - The board declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.59 per share, compared to HKD 0.34 per share for the same period last year[2] - The company declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.59 per share, totaling approximately HKD 5,590,568,000[8] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets less current liabilities amounted to RMB 137,238,218,000, up from RMB 126,290,959,000[7] - Current liabilities totaled RMB 76,469,447,000, compared to RMB 74,029,126,000 last year[7] - Cash and cash equivalents increased to RMB 37,501,630,000 from RMB 31,721,122,000[6] - Trade receivables rose to RMB 7,239,475,000 from RMB 5,488,751,000[6] - The total liabilities of the group as of June 30, 2024, were approximately RMB 103,632,190,000, with a debt-to-asset ratio of about 48.5%[53] - The group had bank borrowings totaling approximately RMB 44,043,273,000, with about 87.3% of these borrowings at fixed interest rates[54] Expenses - Selling and distribution expenses were approximately RMB 366,499,000, an increase of about 20.5% year-on-year, mainly due to increased sales volume of alumina and aluminum alloy processing products[45] - Administrative expenses decreased by approximately 12.6% year-on-year to about RMB 2,453,793,000, primarily due to a reduction in R&D expenses[46] - Financial expenses increased by approximately 5.9% year-on-year to about RMB 1,561,045,000, mainly due to an increase in interest expenses from higher interest-bearing debt[47] Taxation - The income tax expense for the six months ended June 30, 2024, totaled RMB 3,863,113 thousand, significantly higher than RMB 871,674 thousand for the same period in 2023, reflecting a rise in tax obligations[19] - Income tax for the first half of 2024 was approximately RMB 3,863,113,000, an increase of about 343.2% year-on-year due to a significant increase in pre-tax profit[51] Impairment and Losses - The group reported a total impairment loss of RMB 596,468 thousand for the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to RMB 89,388 thousand in the same period of 2023, indicating a substantial increase in impairment losses[17] - The company recognized an impairment loss of approximately RMB 534,225,000 on certain power plants during the reporting period[23] - Inventory write-downs amounted to RMB 57,550,000, while reversals of previously impaired inventory totaled RMB 106,365,000[24] - The group reported a foreign exchange loss of approximately RMB 361,202,000 for the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to a loss of RMB 354,012,000 for the same period in 2023[56] Shareholding Structure - As of June 30, 2024, the total number of shares held by Shi Ping Xing Wang Private Trust Company is 6,090,031,073, representing approximately 64.27% of the total issued share capital[62] - Zhang Hongxia and Zhang Yanhong each hold 6,098,901,073 shares, which accounts for approximately 64.36% of the total issued share capital, as part of a concerted action arrangement[62] - CITIC International Capital Limited holds 660,690,170 shares, representing 6.97% of the total issued share capital[62] - CITIC Limited has a beneficial interest in 850,625,461 shares and a short position of 185,000,000 shares, totaling 8.98% and 1.95% respectively[62] - The total shareholding structure indicates significant concentration of ownership, with major shareholders holding over 64% of the total issued shares[62] Corporate Governance - The company established an audit committee consisting of three independent non-executive directors to review and supervise the financial reporting process and internal controls as of June 30, 2024[69] - The company complied with the Corporate Governance Code, with the exception of the CEO also serving as the Chairman, which the board believes is beneficial for stable business development[75] - The board consists of twelve directors, including four executive directors and eight non-executive directors, ensuring a balance of power and authority[76] Strategic Initiatives - The company continues to focus on high-quality development and has emphasized innovation and digital empowerment as part of its strategic initiatives[34] - The company is actively promoting low-carbon transformation and increasing the use of green energy sources such as hydropower and photovoltaic power[35] - The company is enhancing its integrated industrial chain and has achieved significant cost advantages through the integration of overseas bauxite resources[35] - The company plans to continue investing in technology innovation and digital transformation to enhance traditional industries[36] - The company received the "Best Sustainable Development Linked Loan (Aluminum Industry) China Offshore" award from a well-known international financial magazine, reflecting its commitment to sustainability[36] Financing Activities - The company successfully issued a total of RMB 9.5 billion in short-term financing bonds and medium-term notes, achieving a historical low in long-term bond interest rates[37] - The company issued convertible bonds with an initial principal amount of $300,000,000, with a conversion price adjusted from HK$8.91 to HK$6.54 due to dividend declarations, effective May 31, 2024[71] - The company issued senior unsecured notes totaling $500,000,000 due in 2024 and $300,000,000 due in 2025, with net proceeds of approximately $297,600,000 from the latter issuance[72] Production and Sales - Aluminum alloy product output reached approximately 3.22 million tons, an increase of about 5.3% compared to the same period last year[39] - The average selling price of aluminum alloy products rose by approximately 6.7% to about RMB 17,379 per ton (excluding VAT) compared to the previous year[41] - The company’s aluminum alloy processing product output increased by approximately 30.6% to about 493,000 tons compared to the same period last year[39] - Revenue from aluminum alloy products was approximately RMB 49,311,554,000, accounting for about 67.0% of total revenue, a year-on-year increase of approximately 7.2%[43] - The overall gross profit margin for the company's products was approximately 24.2%, an increase of about 15.2 percentage points compared to the same period last year[44] - The average selling price of alumina products increased by approximately 16.9% to about RMB 2,942 per ton (excluding VAT) compared to the previous year[41]