智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利发布研报，认为铝业的前景已有所改善，这得益于储能系统(ESS)带来 的需求远超其预期，以及电力问题带来的供应挑战。因此，大摩目前预计中国宏桥(01378)盈利将有更 大的增长空间。在此基础上，大摩将中国宏桥目标价从30.6港元上调至44.7港元，并重申为首选股与"增 持"评级。 其次，大摩还指出，供应面临挑战。在新的供应方面，大摩预计 2026 年全球产量将达到约 140万吨。 印度尼西亚是一个重要的新供应来源国，它拥有铝土矿、煤炭和氧化铝，因此是铝的理想产地。然而， 中国在 2021 年承诺不会在境外新建任何火力发电设施，以实现碳中和目标。中国企业将需要找到当地 的合作伙伴为其提供电力。电力建设可能需要相当长的时间，即 18 至 24 个月。因此，尽管印度尼西亚 有大量铝产能的建设规划，但实际产量却相当缓慢。大摩估计 2026 年印度尼西亚的新增供应量仅为70 万吨。此外，由于电力问题导致了供应风险，今年全球范围内出现了几次生产中断事件，约70万吨的产 能。因此，大摩预计 2026 年全球将出现供应短缺。 此外，库存也非常低。目前中国铝的库存仅为60万吨，与过去五年的历史水平相 ...

Core Insights - The highest short-selling ratios were observed for New World Development-R, Geely Automobile-R, and China Resources Beer-R, all at 100.00% [1] - The top three companies by short-selling amount were Alibaba-SW, Xiaomi Group-W, and Tencent Holdings, with amounts of 2.247 billion, 1.597 billion, and 1.377 billion respectively [1] - The highest deviation values were recorded for Geely Automobile-R, China National Offshore Oil-R, and Meituan-WR, with values of 63.65%, 52.70%, and 40.64% respectively [1] Short-Selling Ratio Rankings - New World Development-R (80016): Short-selling amount of 405,600, with a ratio of 100.00% and a deviation of 25.33% [2] - Geely Automobile-R (80175): Short-selling amount of 872,700, with a ratio of 100.00% and a deviation of 63.65% [2] - China Resources Beer-R (80291): Short-selling amount of 102,900, with a ratio of 100.00% and a deviation of 34.15% [2] - Anta Sports-R (82020): Short-selling amount of 227,100, with a ratio of 88.24% and a deviation of 5.81% [2] - BYD Company-R (81211): Short-selling amount of 1,923,700, with a ratio of 87.66% and a deviation of 28.04% [2] Short-Selling Amount Rankings - Alibaba-SW (09988): Short-selling amount of 2.247 billion, with a ratio of 22.01% and a deviation of 6.56% [2] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810): Short-selling amount of 1.597 billion, with a ratio of 12.18% and a deviation of -5.08% [2] - Tencent Holdings (00700): Short-selling amount of 1.377 billion, with a ratio of 15.85% and a deviation of -0.40% [2] - XPeng Motors-W (09868): Short-selling amount of 949 million, with a ratio of 32.35% and a deviation of 14.52% [2] Short-Selling Deviation Rankings - Geely Automobile-R (80175): Short-selling amount of 872,700, with a ratio of 100.00% and a deviation of 63.65% [2] - China National Offshore Oil-R (80883): Short-selling amount of 828,200, with a ratio of 74.60% and a deviation of 52.70% [2] - Meituan-WR (83690): Short-selling amount of 2,121,200, with a ratio of 86.46% and a deviation of 40.64% [2] - China Resources Beer-R (80291): Short-selling amount of 102,900, with a ratio of 100.00% and a deviation of 34.15% [2]

Key Points - The top three companies with net inflows of southbound funds are Alibaba-W (09988) with 3.296 billion, XPeng Motors-W (09868) with 1.147 billion, and Xiaomi Group-W (01810) with 0.853 billion [1][2] - The top three companies with net outflows of southbound funds are Yingfu Fund (02800) with -0.559 billion, China Life (02628) with -0.427 billion, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (00883) with -0.368 billion [1][2] - In terms of net inflow ratio, ICBC South China (03167) leads with 100.00%, followed by Xiaocai Garden (00999) with 74.08%, and Qingdao Bank (03866) with 67.42% [1][3] - The companies with the highest net outflow ratios include Q Tech (01478) at -58.31%, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (03808) at -53.04%, and Nexperia (01316) at -43.99% [1][4] Net Inflow Rankings - Alibaba-W (09988) had a net inflow of 3.296 billion, representing a 20.59% increase in its closing price to 154.600 [2] - XPeng Motors-W (09868) saw a net inflow of 1.147 billion, with a 25.58% increase in its closing price to 85.950 [2] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) experienced a net inflow of 0.853 billion, with a 9.75% increase in its closing price to 40.780 [2] Net Outflow Rankings - Yingfu Fund (02800) had a net outflow of -0.559 billion, with a -4.24% change in its closing price to 26.060 [2] - China Life (02628) experienced a net outflow of -0.427 billion, with a -23.81% change in its closing price to 26.140 [2] - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (00883) had a net outflow of -0.368 billion, with a -14.88% change in its closing price to 21.800 [2]

公司正在持续推进"大额回购+高分红"的股东回报策略。根据公司8 月15日发布的《根据购回授权于市 场上购回股份的计划》公告，继上半年斥资26 亿港元回购1.87 亿股后，公司计划根据市场情况在公开 市场开展新一轮回购，预计总金额不少于30 亿港元。自10 月以来，公司已进行了4 次大额股份回购， 总计回购866,500 股，耗资约2,270.46 万港元，平均回购价格为26.2 港元/股。在分红方面，公司过去三 年的分红率分别为46.8%、47.0%和63.4%，自2020 年以来始终保持在45%以上。这不仅体现了公司对未 来发展的信心，也显示出其对股东回报的高度重视。 电解铝板块利润有望持续走阔，抵消氧化铝价格向下拖累在国内电解铝产能受到严格限制的背景下，供 应端的产量增速已明显放缓；而需求端的汽车、电网等行业仍保持高景气，我们判断全球电解铝供需格 局可能在2026 年进一步趋紧。相比之下，上游氧化铝供需仍偏宽松，预计2025–2026 年的氧化铝价格大 概率呈震荡偏弱走势。综合来看，我们认为电解铝行业在2025–2026 年仍具备进一步扩大利润空间。公 司主营氧化铝和电解铝业务，目前氧化铝价格处于底部震荡 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley maintains a positive outlook on the aluminum industry for the upcoming year, driven by strong global demand growth, rising copper prices, and healthy smelting profit margins [1] Industry Summary - Anticipated new supply from Indonesia is expected to create a moderate supply surplus by 2026, but potential supply disruption risks and a slower pace of overseas capacity restart may lead to tighter market supply than baseline forecasts [1] - The recent surge in aluminum prices, surpassing 21,000 yuan per ton, is expected to sustain profit momentum in the coming quarters [1] Company Summary - Morgan Stanley raised the target price for China Aluminum A-shares from 10 yuan to 13 yuan and H-shares from 8 HKD to 12.5 HKD, maintaining an "Overweight" rating [1] - China Hongqiao's target price was increased from 26.5 HKD to 34 HKD, also with an "Overweight" rating [1] - The earnings forecast for China Aluminum for 2025 to 2027 has been adjusted upward by 3% to 19%, reflecting a more optimistic view on prices and profit margins [1]

另一个支持小摩对中国宏桥乐观看法的因素是其展示了对股东回报的重视。事实上，宏桥集团的6%以 上的股息收益率为股价提供了坚实的支撑。 该行仍然看好铝业股票，并预计近期波动性较大，预计2026财年的收益增长为10-16%。该行认为，宏 桥的估值在当下被低估。中国宏桥作为中国铝业（601600）的重要生产商之一，预计将从这一趋势中受 益，维持健康的边际利润。此外，中国宏桥的低生产成本优势使其在全球同行中更具竞争力。 尽管中国宏桥(01378)达到近期高点后回调，但小摩认为这对投资者而已是一个买入良机，该行对2026 年铝行业的前景持建设性态度。小摩维持中国宏桥的"增持"评级，并将目标价从26.5港元上调至34港 元。 小摩对2026年铝行业的前景持建设性态度，这一前景受到全球需求的韧性、铜价上涨的幅度和健康的冶 炼利润率的支持。小摩的基本预测是，来自印尼的新供应将在2026年带来适度的过剩，但潜在的供应中 断风险和海外重启速度的放缓可能会使市场比其基本预测更紧张。 ...

另一个支持小摩对中国宏桥乐观看法的因素是其展示了对股东回报的重视。事实上，宏桥集团的6%以 上的股息收益率为股价提供了坚实的支撑。 小摩对2026年铝行业的前景持建设性态度，这一前景受到全球需求的韧性、铜价上涨的幅度和健康的冶 炼利润率的支持。小摩的基本预测是，来自印尼的新供应将在2026年带来适度的过剩，但潜在的供应中 断风险和海外重启速度的放缓可能会使市场比其基本预测更紧张。 该行仍然看好铝业股票，并预计近期波动性较大，预计2026财年的收益增长为10-16%。该行认为，宏 桥的估值在当下被低估。中国宏桥作为中国铝业的重要生产商之一，预计将从这一趋势中受益，维持健 康的边际利润。此外，中国宏桥的低生产成本优势使其在全球同行中更具竞争力。 智通财经APP获悉，尽管中国宏桥(01378)达到近期高点后回调，但小摩认为这对投资者而已是一个买入 良机，该行对2026年铝行业的前景持建设性态度。小摩维持中国宏桥的"增持"评级，并将目标价从26.5 港元上调至34港元。 ...

前10大资金净流入榜 智通财经APP获悉，11月17日,盈富基金（02800）、阿里巴巴-W（09988）、恒生中国企业（02828）南 向资金净流入金额位列市场前三，分别净流入37.32 亿、20.59 亿、5.82 亿 中国宏桥（01378）、药明生物（02269）、农业银行（01288）南向资金净流出金额位列市场前三，分 别净流出-2.92 亿、-2.05 亿、-1.89 亿 在净流入比方面，工银南方中国（03167）、新华文轩（00811）、郑州银行（06196）以100.00%、 76.42%、68.14%位列市场前三。 在净流出比方面，绿城管理控股（09979）、丘钛科技（01478）、昆仑能源（00135） 以-66.60%、-56.71%、-48.50%位列市场前三。 | 股票名称 | 净流入比↓ | 净流入(元) | 收盘价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 工银南方中国(03167) | 100.00% | 2.86 万 | 71.160（-0.56%） | | 新华文轩(00811) | 76.42% | 684.72 万 | 10.560（-1.22%） | ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 25,824.00, down by 6.65 points or 0.03% as of November 19, 16:00 Eastern Time [1] - The index's highest price during the day was 25,935.21, while the lowest was 25,751.31, with a trading volume of 43.34 million shares [1] Major Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - HSBC Holdings closed at HKD 107.800, down by HKD 1.800 or 1.64% compared to the previous close [2][3] - Tencent Holdings closed at HKD 622.500, down by HKD 1.000 or 0.16% [3] - Alibaba Group (ADR) saw an increase, closing at HKD 156.400, up by HKD 1.800 or 1.16% [3] - Xiaomi Group closed at HKD 38.820, down by HKD 1.960 or 4.81% [3] - AIA Group closed at HKD 77.950, down by HKD 0.600 or 0.76% [3] Stock Price Changes - The stock prices of major companies showed mixed results, with some experiencing declines while others saw slight increases [2][3] - Notable declines included Kuaishou Technology, which closed at HKD 63.500, down by HKD 1.150 or 1.78% [3] - Ctrip Group saw an increase, closing at HKD 574.500, up by HKD 10.000 or 1.77% [3]

中国宏桥以先旧后新方式配售4亿股新股，每股作价29.2港元，预计净集资约114.9亿港元。摩根士丹利 认为部分募集资金将用于股份回购以提升股东回报和支持股价，并对铝价前景持乐观态度，主要因供应 增长有限和需求尤其是储能领域需求强劲。稳健的基本面预计将推动宏桥2026年盈利表现，大摩维 持"增持"评级，目标价为30.6港元。 ...