中国宏桥以先旧后新方式配售4亿股新股，每股作价29.2港元，预计净集资约114.9亿港元。摩根士丹利 认为部分募集资金将用于股份回购以提升股东回报和支持股价，并对铝价前景持乐观态度，主要因供应 增长有限和需求尤其是储能领域需求强劲。稳健的基本面预计将推动宏桥2026年盈利表现，大摩维 持"增持"评级，目标价为30.6港元。 ...

Group 1 - China Hongqiao announced a placement of 400 million shares at a price of HKD 29.2 per share, representing approximately 4.03% of the enlarged share capital, with expected net fundraising of about HKD 11.49 billion [1] - Morgan Stanley believes that part of the raised funds will be used for share buybacks in the market to enhance shareholder returns and support the stock price [1] - Morgan Stanley remains optimistic about aluminum price prospects due to limited supply growth, both domestically (restricted by government production caps) and internationally (mainly constrained by power supply), alongside resilient demand, particularly from the energy storage sector [1] Group 2 - The robust industrial fundamentals are expected to support further increases in aluminum prices, which will boost Hongqiao's earnings performance in 2026 [1] - Morgan Stanley maintains an "Overweight" rating on Hongqiao with a target price of HKD 30.6 [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 35.22 [1][5] Core Views - The company is expected to continue its high profitability and high dividend policy, supported by a strong capital structure and stable performance in the aluminum sector [1][4] - The planned placement of up to 400 million shares at HKD 29.2 per share aims to raise a maximum of HKD 11.68 billion, which will be used to optimize the capital structure and support domestic and overseas project development [2][4] - The company has a strong commitment to shareholder returns through significant share buybacks and consistent high dividend payouts, with a dividend payout ratio exceeding 45% since 2020 [3][4] Summary by Sections Capital Structure and Project Development - The placement will primarily fund domestic and overseas projects and further optimize the company's debt structure, with existing capacities of 6.46 million tons of electrolytic aluminum and 19 million tons of alumina domestically, and 2 million tons of alumina capacity in Indonesia [2][4] Shareholder Returns - The company has executed a significant share buyback strategy, spending HKD 2.6 billion to repurchase 18.7 million shares in the first half of the year, with plans for an additional buyback of at least HKD 3 billion [3][4] Profitability Outlook - The electrolytic aluminum sector is expected to maintain profitability despite downward pressure from alumina prices, with a tightening supply-demand balance anticipated by 2026 [4][5] - The company forecasts net profits of RMB 25.63 billion, RMB 25.43 billion, and RMB 25.76 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a PE ratio of 12X for 2025 [5][11]

Core Insights - The article highlights the top short-selling stocks in the market, with AIA Group (81299), Li Ning (82331), and JD Group (89618) having the highest short-selling ratios at 100.00%, 100.00%, and 91.68% respectively [1][2] - Alibaba (09988), Xiaomi (01810), and Tencent (00700) lead in short-selling amounts, with figures of 3.531 billion, 1.787 billion, and 1.421 billion respectively [1][3] - China Mobile (80941), Shanghai Industrial Holdings (00807), and AIA Group (81299) have the highest deviation values, indicating significant differences from their historical short-selling averages [1][3] Short-Selling Ratios - AIA Group (81299) and Li Ning (82331) both have a short-selling ratio of 100.00%, while JD Group (89618) has a ratio of 91.68% [2] - Other notable companies with high short-selling ratios include Kuaishou (81024) at 90.75% and China Mobile (80941) at 90.20% [2] Short-Selling Amounts - Alibaba (09988) has the highest short-selling amount at 3.531 billion, followed by Xiaomi (01810) at 1.787 billion and Tencent (00700) at 1.421 billion [3] - Other companies with significant short-selling amounts include XPeng Motors (09868) at 1.012 billion and BYD (01211) at 1.001 billion [3] Deviation Values - China Mobile (80941) leads with a deviation value of 43.82%, indicating a significant increase in its short-selling ratio compared to its historical average [3] - Other companies with high deviation values include Shanghai Industrial Holdings (00807) at 40.85% and AIA Group (81299) at 36.63% [3]

Market Overview - The US stock market experienced a decline, with the Dow Jones falling by 1.07%, the S&P 500 down by 0.82%, and the Nasdaq decreasing by 1.2% [4] - European stock indices also fell, with Germany's DAX30 down by 1.77%, the UK's FTSE 100 down by 1.27%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down by 1.9% [4] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index continued its downward trend, closing down 1.72% after a drop of 688 points over two days [5] - A-shares showed a mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.81%, Shenzhen Component down by 0.92%, and the ChiNext Index down by 1.16% [6] Commodity Prices - Spot gold rose by 0.54% to $4067.51 per ounce, while silver increased by 0.96% to $50.69 per ounce [7] - WTI crude oil rose by 1.39% to $60.57 per barrel, and Brent crude oil increased by 1.18% to $64.46 per barrel [7] Economic Indicators - The US dollar index rose slightly by 0.072% to 99.61 points, while US Treasury yields saw a decline, with the 10-year yield at 4.113% and the 2-year yield at 3.585% [3][7] - The ADP weekly employment report indicated an average weekly job loss of 2500 positions in the private sector [12] Corporate Developments - Nvidia's stock fell by 2.8%, and Amazon's stock decreased by 4.4% amid broader market declines [4] - Pinduoduo's shares dropped over 7%, reflecting negative sentiment in the tech sector [4] - In contrast, Alibaba's stock rose by 1.2%, and Baidu's shares increased by 2.6% [4] Upcoming Events - The US is set to release new economic data, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and housing starts, which may impact market sentiment [13][15]

Core Insights - On November 18, China Hongqiao made its first appearance on the Hong Kong Stock Connect active trading list in a month, with a trading volume of 2.42 billion HKD and a net buy of 0.83 billion HKD, despite a closing drop of 5.88% [2]. Trading Activity Summary - The total trading volume of active stocks on the Hong Kong Stock Connect reached 38.66 billion HKD, accounting for 39.31% of the day's total trading amount, with a net buying amount of 7.18 billion HKD [2]. - Alibaba-W led the trading volume with 9.28 billion HKD, followed by Tencent Holdings and Xiaomi Group-W with trading amounts of 5.85 billion HKD and 4.59 billion HKD, respectively [2]. - The most frequently listed stocks in the past month include Alibaba-W and Huahong Semiconductor, each appearing 21 times, indicating strong interest from Hong Kong Stock Connect funds [2]. Individual Stock Performance - China Hongqiao's trading details on November 18 included a trading volume of 2.42 billion HKD and a net buy of 0.83 billion HKD, with a closing price of 21.80 HKD and a daily decline of 5.88% [2]. - Other notable stocks included: - Tencent Holdings: Trading volume of 5.85 billion HKD, net sell of 0.19 billion HKD, closing price of 623.50 HKD, and a daily drop of 2.04% [2]. - Xiaomi Group-W: Trading volume of 4.59 billion HKD, net buy of 0.85 billion HKD, closing price of 40.78 HKD, and a daily decline of 2.81% [2]. - Huahong Semiconductor: Trading volume of 3.61 billion HKD, net buy of 0.37 billion HKD, closing price of 80.25 HKD, and a daily increase of 3.48% [2].

Market Overview - On November 18, the Hang Seng Index fell by 1.72%, with southbound trading totaling HKD 983.54 billion, comprising HKD 529.10 billion in buying and HKD 454.44 billion in selling, resulting in a net buying amount of HKD 74.66 billion [2][3]. Southbound Trading Details - The southbound trading through Stock Connect (Shenzhen) had a total trading amount of HKD 366.04 billion, with net buying of HKD 47.21 billion, while the trading through Stock Connect (Shanghai) totaled HKD 617.50 billion, with net buying of HKD 27.45 billion [2][3]. Active Stocks - Alibaba-W was the most actively traded stock with a total trading amount of HKD 92.79 billion and a net buying amount of HKD 32.97 billion, despite a closing price drop of 0.19% [2][3]. - Other notable stocks included Tencent Holdings with a trading amount of HKD 58.48 billion and a net selling of HKD 1.91 billion, and Xiaomi Group-W with a trading amount of HKD 45.92 billion and a net buying of HKD 8.54 billion [2][3]. Continuous Net Buying - Three stocks experienced continuous net buying for more than three days, with Xiaomi Group-W leading at 15 days, followed by Alibaba-W and Huahong Semiconductor at 4 days each. The total net buying amounts were HKD 106.60 billion for Xiaomi Group-W and HKD 89.99 billion for Alibaba-W [3][4].

Core Insights - On November 18, 2025, Alibaba-W (09988), Tencent Holdings (00700), and Xiaomi Group-W (01810) were the top three companies by trading volume in the Southbound Stock Connect, with trading amounts of 5.863 billion, 3.912 billion, and 3.075 billion respectively [1] - In the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, Alibaba-W (09988), Tencent Holdings (00700), and SMIC (00981) also ranked as the top three, with trading amounts of 3.416 billion, 1.935 billion, and 1.640 billion respectively [1] Southbound Stock Connect - Top Active Companies - Alibaba-W (09988) had a trading amount of 5.863 billion with a net buying amount of +1.678 billion [2] - Tencent Holdings (00700) recorded a trading amount of 3.912 billion with a net selling amount of -0.831 billion [2] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) achieved a trading amount of 3.075 billion with a net buying amount of +0.633 billion [2] - SMIC (00981) had a trading amount of 2.588 billion with a net selling amount of -0.128 billion [2] - Other notable companies included Huahong Semiconductor (01347) with a trading amount of 2.252 billion and a net buying amount of +29.105 million [2] Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect - Top Active Companies - Alibaba-W (09988) had a trading amount of 3.416 billion with a net buying amount of +1.618 billion [2] - Tencent Holdings (00700) recorded a trading amount of 1.935 billion with a net buying amount of +0.639 billion [2] - SMIC (00981) achieved a trading amount of 1.640 billion with a net buying amount of +0.502 billion [2] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) had a trading amount of 1.518 billion with a net buying amount of +0.220 billion [2] - Other significant companies included Huahong Semiconductor (01347) with a trading amount of 1.361 billion and a net buying amount of +0.338 billion [2]

中国宏桥（01378.HK），今年港股有色股中的超级牛股之一。年初以来，中国宏桥最大涨幅超过两倍，市值最高突破3000亿港元。 不过，最近这只牛股突然崩了。 上周四，中国宏桥创出35.1港元的历史纪录后，上周五跌近4%，昨天下跌3.6%，今日盘中最多跌近8%，最终收盘下跌5.88%，全天成交170亿港元，成交额 明显放大。从高点跌下来，中国宏桥累计最大跌幅近15%。究竟发生了什么？ 下跌的直接原因，是中国宏桥昨晚发布公告，准备配售4亿股股份，预计募资高达114.9亿港元。募集资金拟用于发展及提升国内及海外项目、偿还现有债 务、优化资本结构及补充营运资金。 更重要的是，中国宏桥计划配售股份的配售价仅为29.2港元，这比昨天的收盘价32.3港元折价了约9.6%。巨额融资，再加上配售价的较大折让，导致了中国 宏桥近期的持续回落。 实际上，类似的事情，在A股也时有发生，内地投资者不会感到太陌生。 不过需要注意的是，虽然融资实现了快速高效，但毕竟配股价还是较市价有明显折扣，而股本的扩张，对原有老股东来说，持股比例会被一定程度稀释。因 此，短期来看，此次配股对于股价而言，确实会形成利空。今天，中国宏桥成交额显著放大，也说 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Hongqiao (01378.HK) has experienced significant volatility, with its stock price more than doubling earlier this year, reaching a market capitalization of over 300 billion HKD, but recently faced a sharp decline due to a planned share placement [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - China Hongqiao's stock hit a record high of 35.1 HKD but subsequently dropped nearly 4% the following day, with a cumulative decline of nearly 15% from its peak [1] - The trading volume surged to 17 billion HKD, indicating substantial selling pressure [1] Group 2: Share Placement Announcement - The immediate cause of the stock decline was the announcement of a placement of 400 million shares, expected to raise up to 11.49 billion HKD [1] - The placement price is set at 29.2 HKD, representing a discount of approximately 9.6% compared to the previous closing price of 32.3 HKD [1] Group 3: Placement Mechanism - The share placement follows a "old shares first, new shares later" approach, where major shareholders first sell their existing shares to independent investors [2] - The company will then issue new shares to the major shareholders to restore their ownership levels [4] - This method allows for quicker financing compared to traditional new share issuance, balancing efficiency and market acceptance [4] Group 4: Market Implications - While the placement facilitates rapid fundraising, the significant discount on the placement price and the resulting dilution of existing shareholders' stakes may negatively impact the stock price in the short term [4] - The long-term effects will depend on how effectively the raised funds are utilized to enhance the company's operations [4]