Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for China Hongqiao with a target price of HK$19.60, up from the previous target of HK$17.90, indicating a potential upside of 52.9% from the current price of HK$12.82 [5][34]. Core Views - The aluminum sector is expected to benefit from China's pro-market policies, which are anticipated to increase aluminum prices in the near term. The report revises earnings forecasts for 2024E-2026E upward by 9-12% due to higher price assumptions for aluminum and alumina [3][34]. - The report highlights that a 1% increase in aluminum prices could boost Hongqiao's earnings by 4% [3]. - The company is currently trading at a mid-cycle valuation of 7x 2024E P/E, with an attractive yield of 7% [3]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 133,624 million in 2022 to RMB 151,734 million in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4% [4][36]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to increase from RMB 11,461 million in 2023 to RMB 19,160 million in 2026, indicating a strong growth trajectory [4][36]. Price Trends and Market Dynamics - The Shanghai aluminum price has rebounded to RMB 20,395 per ton, a 3% increase since early September, with an average price of RMB 19,600 per ton in Q3 2024, up 4% year-on-year [3][34]. - The report notes that alumina prices have seen a significant increase of 35% year-on-year, with forecasts indicating a 34% increase in Hongqiao's alumina ASP in 2H24 [3][34]. Supply and Demand Factors - China's aluminum production growth slowed to 1.3% year-on-year in August, with a capacity utilization rate of approximately 96.7%. Limited new supply is expected due to government-imposed capacity limits [3][34]. - The report estimates that construction and automobile sectors in China account for 16% and 14% of global aluminum demand, respectively, with government policies expected to stabilize demand expectations [3][34]. Valuation Insights - The report indicates that Hongqiao has historically traded at an average forward P/E of 6x, with peaks at 10x and troughs around 3x. The new target price reflects a valuation of 9.8x 2024E P/E, which is 1.5 standard deviations above the historical average, suggesting a potential industry upcycle [3][34].

INTERIM REPORT 2024 中期報告 2024 中期報告 目錄 公司資料 2 財務摘要 4 主席報告 5 管理層討論與分析 9 補充資料 18 中期簡明綜合財務資料之審閱報告 25 簡明綜合損益及其他全面收益表 26 簡明綜合財務狀況表 27 簡明綜合權益變動表 29 簡明綜合現金流量表 31 中期簡明綜合財務資料附註 33 公司資料 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------------------------------| | | | | | | | | 執行董事 | | | | | 薪酬委員會 | | 張波先生 （主席、行政總裁、授權代表） | | | | | 韓本文先生 （薪酬委員會主席） | | 鄭淑良女士 （副主席） | | | | | 張波先生 | | 張瑞蓮女士 （副總裁、財務總監） 王雨婷女士 （企業融資部主管） | | | | | 文献軍先 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for China Hongqiao Group [3][4][10] Core Views - Rising prices of aluminum products and decreasing costs of major raw materials have significantly improved the company's profitability [8][9] - The company has a fully integrated industrial chain, which provides substantial cost advantages [9] - The global economic outlook is positive, with expectations for continued growth in aluminum demand driven by industries such as photovoltaics and new energy vehicles [9][10] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2024, the company achieved operating income of RMB 73.59 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.0% [7] - Gross profit reached RMB 17.80 billion, up 202.1% year-on-year, with a gross profit margin of 24.2%, an increase of 15.2 percentage points [7] - Net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 9.155 billion, a year-on-year increase of 272.7% [7] - The company plans to distribute an interim dividend of HK$0.59 per share, a 73.5% increase year-on-year [7] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecast for operating income from 2024 to 2026 is RMB 1497.7 billion, RMB 1569.9 billion, and RMB 165.24 billion respectively [10] - Expected EPS for the same period is RMB 1.99, RMB 2.03, and RMB 2.20 per share [10] - The target price is set at HK$15.12, based on a valuation of 8x PER for 2024 [10] Segment Performance - Electrolytic aluminum segment reported revenue of RMB 49.31 billion, a 7.2% increase year-on-year, with a gross profit margin of 24.6% [8] - Alumina segment achieved revenue of RMB 16.20 billion, a 19.7% increase year-on-year, with a gross profit margin of 25.4% [8] - Aluminum processing segment saw revenue of RMB 7.58 billion, a 34.3% increase year-on-year, with a gross profit margin of 21.0% [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, achieving 9.155 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 272.7% [3] - The company benefits from rising alumina prices, with a notable performance across its three main business segments: aluminum products, alumina, and aluminum processing [3] - The integrated business model enhances profitability, with overall gross margin improving to approximately 24.2%, up by 15.2 percentage points year-on-year [3] - Future net profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 19.232 billion yuan, 20.628 billion yuan, and 22.144 billion yuan respectively, reflecting an upward revision based on cost optimization [3] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of 73.592 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12% [3] - The revenue from aluminum alloy products was 49.312 billion yuan, up 7.25% year-on-year, with production and sales volumes increasing by 5.3% and 0.5% respectively [3] - Alumina revenue reached 16.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.72%, with sales volume up approximately 2.4% [3] - The company declared an interim dividend of 0.59 HKD per share, compared to 0.34 HKD in the same period last year [3] Profitability - The gross margin for aluminum alloy products was approximately 24.6%, up by 15.9 percentage points year-on-year, driven by rising sales prices and declining raw material costs [3] - The gross margin for alumina products was about 25.4%, an increase of 16.5 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to higher alumina prices [3] - The company’s overall profitability is expected to improve further due to the upward trend in alumina and electrolytic aluminum prices [3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain its integrated advantage in the aluminum industry, with projected net profits for the next three years showing significant growth [3] - The price forecasts for alumina and electrolytic aluminum are expected to remain favorable, supporting the company's earnings potential [3]

高股息进一步体现,公允价值变动及减值制约业绩释放 中国宏桥(1378. HK)/有色金属 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024 年 8 月 21 日 评级:买入(维持)公司盈利预测及估值 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------|-------------|--------------------------------|-----------------|-----------------| | 市场价格:10.74 港元 | 指标 | | 2022A | 2023A | | 分析师:刘耀齐执业证书编号: S0740523080004 | 增长率 yoy% | 营业收入(百万元)净利润(百万元) | 134,81415%8.702 | 136,1651%11,461 | | Email: liuyq07@ zts.com.cn | 增长车 yoy% | | -46% | 32% | | | | | | 1.21 | 10.7P/E8.14.43.83.1Email: guozw@zts.com.cn ...

证券研究报告 | 2024年08月20日 证券分析师：刘孟峦 证券分析师：焦方冉 收盘价 10.36 港元 总市值/流通市值 98167/98167 百万港元 52 周最高价/最低价 13.56/5.05 港元 近 3 个月日均成交额 491.46 百万港元 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------| | 010-88005312 | 021-60933177 | | liumengluan@guosen.com.cnS0980520040001 | jiaofangran@guosen.com.cn S0980522080003 | | 基础数据 | | | 投资评级 | 优于大市(维持) | | 合理估值 | | | 市场走势 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------|---------|---------|---------|---------|------- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2024, with revenue rising approximately 12.0% year-on-year to RMB 73.592 billion and net profit attributable to shareholders increasing approximately 272.7% to RMB 9.155 billion. A mid-term dividend of HKD 0.59 per share was also announced [4] - The company's performance was driven by increased production and sales across its aluminum and alumina businesses, with aluminum alloy production rising 5.3% to 3.221 million tons and sales increasing 0.5% to 2.837 million tons. Alumina sales reached 5.507 million tons, up 2.4%, while aluminum processing products saw a production increase of 30.6% to 493,000 tons and sales up 35.9% to 379,000 tons [4] - The decline in coal and anode costs contributed to profit growth, with average coal prices dropping approximately 20.1% and 7.2% in the first two quarters of 2024. However, financial instruments' fair value changes negatively impacted profits by RMB 1.615 billion [4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company's stock price is currently at HKD 10.36, with a market performance comparison showing a relative decline against the Hang Seng Index [2][3] Financial Data and Forecasts - The company’s total revenue for 2024 is projected to be RMB 140.681 billion, with net profit forecasts of RMB 18.185 billion, RMB 20.251 billion, and RMB 21.309 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [6][7] - Key financial metrics include a projected EPS of RMB 1.92 for 2024 and a dividend payout ratio of 55.9% [5][6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the company's strong profit performance, coupled with rising product prices and a favorable cost structure, enhances its investment value. The net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to RMB 18.185 billion, RMB 20.251 billion, and RMB 21.309 billion respectively, maintaining the "Buy" rating [5][6]

有色金属/工业金属 公 司 研 究 中国宏桥（01378.HK） 2024 年 08 月 19 日 业绩充分受益铝价上涨，可转债记账影响非经损益 ——公司信息更新报告 投资评级：买入（维持） | --- | --- | |--------------------|--------------| | 日期 | 2024/8/16 | | 当前股价(港元) | 10.320 | | 一年最高最低(港元) | 13.560/5.170 | | 总市值(亿港元) | 977.88 | | 流通市值(亿港元) | 977.88 | | 总股本(亿股) | 94.76 | | 流通港股(亿股) | 94.76 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 28.4 | 股价走势图 中国宏桥 恒生指数 -40% 0% 40% 80% 120% 2023-08 2023-12 2024-04 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《成本企稳+铝行业高景气，电解铝龙 头扬帆起航—公司首次覆盖报告》 -2024.6.12 | --- | --- | |--------------------------|-------------------- ...

19 Aug 2024 CMB 国际全球市场 | 股票研究 | 公司更新 中国虹桥 （ 1378 香港 ） 1H24 净利润同比 + 2.7 倍 ， 超预期 鸿桥的净利润达到人民币91.6亿元（同比增长270%），这比6月预估的增长220%要好。若排 除可转换债券（CB）的公允价值损失，核心净利润甚至会更高，达到人民币105亿元（同比增 长330%）。强劲的利润增长主要得益于铝（Al）和氧化铝的单位毛利率超预期的扩张：铝的 单位毛利率从每吨人民币4277元同比增长2倍至每吨人民币4277元，氧化铝的单位毛利率则 从每吨人民币748元同比增长230%至每吨人民币748元。鸿桥提议的中期股息为每股港币 0.59元，代表约57%的派息比率。最新的上海铝价（含增值税）从8月初的每吨人民币18835 元反弹至每吨人民币19310元。我们认为近期股价回调是一个买入机会。我们预计每1%的铝 价格上涨将提升鸿桥的盈利约4%，当前价格提供了超过8%的吸引人收益。基于2024年的市 盈率9.8倍的评估，我们的目标价保持不变，为港币17.9元。维持评级。BUY. 铝合金产品 （ 1H24 占收入的 67% ） ：上半年该部门收入同 ...

19 Aug 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update China Hongqiao (1378 HK) Net profit 1H24 +2.7x YoY, beat expectations Hongqiao's net profit came in at RMB9.16bn (+2.7x YoY), which is better than the pre-announced profit growth of 2.2x in Jun. Excluding the fair value loss of convertible bonds (CB), the core net profit would be even higher at RMB10.5bn (+3.3x YoY). The strong profit growth was driven by higher-than-expected unit gross margin expansion for both aluminum (Al) (+ ...