Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [9] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the recovery of the silver-gold ratio and the simultaneous rise in copper and aluminum prices due to both domestic and international factors [5][6] - Weak employment data in the U.S. has led to increased expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut in September, which is expected to boost precious metals [5][6] - The report suggests that while gold remains a focus for investment, the recovery of the silver-gold ratio indicates potential for silver as well [5][6] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report highlights the weak performance of the U.S. labor market and its implications for precious metals, particularly gold and silver [5][6] - It suggests that gold stocks may experience a quarterly-level resonance in terms of price, valuation, and style due to anticipated rate cuts [5][6] - For silver, the report advises attention to its potential to converge with gold as inflation expectations rise [5][6] Industrial Metals - Industrial metals have seen a broad increase, with LME copper rising by 1.7% and aluminum by 3.8% [6][27] - The report notes that domestic policies aimed at stabilizing growth are expected to enhance demand outlook [6] - It indicates that while demand for copper and aluminum may decline in the second half of the year, supply constraints will limit the extent of this decline [6] Strategic and Minor Metals - The report discusses the strategic reassessment of rare earths and tungsten, with a focus on their long-term value due to government policies and market dynamics [7] - It highlights the upward price trend for cobalt and nickel, driven by supply constraints and increasing demand in the battery sector [7] - The report also mentions the bottoming out of lithium prices, with a cautious outlook on future price movements [7]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [6] Core Views - The expectation of interest rate cuts has strengthened, leading to upward price movements in both industrial and precious metals [1][2] - Copper prices have shown a strong upward trend, with the recent price reaching 80,810 CNY/ton, driven by seasonal demand and supply constraints [1] - Aluminum prices have also increased, with the Shanghai aluminum price at 21,075 CNY/ton, supported by stable production and improved demand from the automotive sector [1][22] - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, have seen price increases due to soft labor market signals and expectations of continued central bank purchases [2][27] Summary by Sections 1. Base Metals & Precious Metals - **Copper**: Prices have rebounded due to reduced market supply and stable demand, with domestic copper inventory at 149,000 tons [1][13] - **Aluminum**: Prices have increased due to stable supply and improved demand, with LME aluminum inventory rising to 485,300 tons [1][22][23] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices have risen, with gold averaging 821.23 CNY/g and silver at 9,773 CNY/kg, supported by macroeconomic factors [2][27] 2. Minor Metals - **Tungsten**: Prices have shown mixed trends, with black tungsten concentrate averaging 286,500 CNY/ton, while market sentiment remains cautious [3][61] - **Rare Earths**: Prices have stabilized, with light rare earth oxide at 575,000 CNY/ton, indicating a potential recovery in the sector [4] 3. Market Predictions - **Copper**: Expected to maintain a high level of volatility, with prices projected to range between 79,600-81,000 CNY/ton [14] - **Aluminum**: Anticipated to fluctuate within the range of 20,400-21,000 CNY/ton [23] - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices are expected to range between 800-840 CNY/g, while silver is projected to be between 9,000-9,900 CNY/kg [28]

Group 1 - China Hongqiao's stock price rose by 6.86% to HKD 26.8, reaching a historical high, with a year-to-date increase of 149.53% and a market capitalization of HKD 256.5 billion [1] - The company announced a share buyback plan, spending HKD 2.4636 million to repurchase 100,500 shares at a price range of HKD 24.2 to 24.8 per share [1] - Jefferies highlighted that the mid-term performance is strong, with HKD 2.6 billion already repurchased in the first half of 2025 and plans for at least HKD 3 billion in stock buybacks, alongside an annual dividend yield exceeding 60% [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley indicated that there is over an 80% chance of China Hongqiao's stock price increasing in the next 30 days [1] - The potential interest rate cuts hinted by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell could benefit commodity prices, and the upcoming end of the consumption off-season is expected to support aluminum prices, which is favorable for China Hongqiao [1] - The announced stock buyback is anticipated to drive the stock price up in the short term [1]

Group 1 - China Hongqiao's stock price increased by over 6%, currently up 5.74% at HKD 26.52, with a trading volume of HKD 565 million [1] - On September 11, London base metals rose across the board, with LME aluminum up 2.06% at USD 2,679.00 per ton [1] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve on September 17 are strong, with an increased probability for a 50 basis point cut, leading to a weaker dollar and higher aluminum prices [1] Group 2 - China Hongqiao is a leading integrated electrolytic aluminum producer with significant advantages in bauxite resource layout and high self-sufficiency in alumina and electricity [1] - The company benefits from low coal prices, enhancing its cost advantages amid rising dependence on imported bauxite in China [1] - Expectations for increased profit from rising equity capacity and a new supply-demand balance as domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity approaches its ceiling support a bullish outlook for aluminum prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Hongqiao (01378) saw a significant intraday increase of over 6%, closing up 5.74% at HKD 26.52, with a trading volume of HKD 565 million [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - On September 11, London base metals experienced a broad increase, with LME aluminum rising by 2.06% to USD 2,679.00 per ton [1] - The CME FedWatch tool indicates a strong market expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the conclusion of its meeting on September 17, with an increased probability for a 50 basis point cut [1] - The anticipation of rate cuts is contributing to a weaker dollar, which is favorable for aluminum prices [1] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - There is a gradual recovery in downstream demand, coupled with market expectations for a peak season, which is likely to create a positive feedback loop for aluminum prices [1] - Shenwan Hongyuan highlights that China Hongqiao has significant integrated advantages as an electrolytic aluminum producer, with a leading position in overseas bauxite resource allocation and high self-sufficiency in alumina and electricity [1] - The company benefits from a low dependency on imported bauxite amid rising domestic reliance, along with low coal prices enhancing its cost advantages [1] Group 3: Profitability and Future Outlook - The anticipated increase in the company's equity production capacity is expected to bolster profits [1] - With domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity nearing its ceiling, a new supply-demand dynamic is expected to drive aluminum prices upward [1] - Minsheng Securities asserts that with the Fed's clear rate cut in September and aluminum capacity reaching its limits, long-term value for the company is promising [1]

消息面上，美国8月CPI同比增长2.9%，8月核心CPI同比增长3.1%，大体符合预期，强化了市场对美联 储降息的押注。中信证券研报称，未来数月美国总体CPI同比增速可能将在3%附近徘徊，维持美联储年 内将连续降息三次各25bps的预测，降息交易应该是近期比较明朗的主线。 智通财经APP获悉，有色股延续近期涨势，截至发稿，中国铝业(02600)涨5.77%，报7.51港元；中国宏 桥(01378)涨4.78%，报26.28港元；江西铜业股份(00358)涨3.97%，报26.18港元；洛阳钼业(03993)涨 3.39%，报13.12港元。 银河证券发布研报称，美联储9月降息的预期升温，流动性边际宽松与对美元指数的压制，利好工业金 属商品价格。基本面看，国内8月制造业PMI小幅回升0.1pct至49.49%，景气度已有边际改善。在当前传 统淡旺季转换之际，下游加工企业开工率有所回升，而供应端面临冶炼厂集中检修、政策调整等因素影 响，产量释放或环比下降，工业金属社会库存去化有望加速，或催化工业金属价格走强。 ...

Group 1 - Non-ferrous stocks continue their recent upward trend, with China Aluminum (601600) rising by 5.77% to HKD 7.51, China Hongqiao (01378) up by 4.78% to HKD 26.28, Jiangxi Copper (600362) increasing by 3.97% to HKD 26.18, and Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) gaining 3.39% to HKD 13.12 [1] - The U.S. August CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year, while the core CPI rose by 3.1%, aligning with expectations and strengthening market bets on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1] - Citic Securities predicts that the U.S. overall CPI growth rate may hover around 3% in the coming months, maintaining the forecast of three consecutive 25 basis point rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [1] Group 2 - Galaxy Securities reports that expectations for a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve are rising, which could lead to marginal liquidity easing and pressure on the U.S. dollar index, benefiting industrial metal prices [1] - In terms of fundamentals, China's manufacturing PMI slightly improved by 0.1 percentage points to 49.49% in August, indicating marginal recovery in economic activity [1] - As the traditional peak and off-peak seasons transition, downstream processing enterprises are seeing a recovery in operating rates, while the supply side faces challenges from concentrated maintenance at smelting plants and policy adjustments, potentially leading to a decrease in production and accelerated destocking of industrial metal inventories [1]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - Multiple companies conducted share buybacks on September 11, 2025, with Tencent Holdings leading in both the number of shares repurchased and the total amount spent [1][2]. Company Buyback Details - Tencent Holdings (00700) repurchased 874,000 shares for a total of 550 million, with a year-to-date total of 54.758 million shares, representing 0.596% of its total share capital [2]. - Hang Seng Bank (00011) repurchased 210,000 shares for 24.882 million, with a year-to-date total of 6.12 million shares, representing 0.325% of its total share capital [2]. - Stone Four Pharmaceutical Group (02005) repurchased 6 million shares for 18.1433 million, with a year-to-date total of 22.6 million shares, representing 0.766% of its total share capital [2]. - MGM China (02282) repurchased 1 million shares for 16.2463 million, with a year-to-date total of 18.6274 million shares, representing 0.490% of its total share capital [2]. - Other notable companies include: - China Hongqiao (01378) with 100,500 shares repurchased for 2.4636 million, totaling 149 million shares, representing 1.590% of its total share capital [2]. - Weigao Group (01066) with 429,200 shares repurchased for 2.4248 million, totaling 10.4532 million shares, representing 2.315% of its total share capital [2]. - Coolpad Group (02369) with 924,000 shares repurchased for 1.2036 million, totaling 1.2519 million shares, representing 3.057% of its total share capital [2].

Core Insights - The top three companies by Hong Kong Stock Connect holding ratios are China Telecom (00728) at 72.05%, Green Power Environmental (01330) at 69.19%, and China Shenhua (01088) at 67.94% [1] - Alibaba-W (09988), Horizon Robotics-W (09660), and BYD Company (01211) saw the largest increases in holding amounts over the last five trading days, with increases of +126.42 billion, +37.06 billion, and +23.82 billion respectively [1] - The largest decreases in holding amounts over the last five trading days were recorded by the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800) at -19.72 billion, China Telecom (00728) at -13.62 billion, and Kuaishou-W (01024) at -10.29 billion [1] Hong Kong Stock Connect Latest Holding Ratios - China Telecom (00728): 100.01 billion shares, 72.05% holding ratio [1] - Green Power Environmental (01330): 2.80 billion shares, 69.19% holding ratio [1] - China Shenhua (01088): 22.95 billion shares, 67.94% holding ratio [1] - Other notable companies include Kaisa New Energy (01108) at 67.53% and COSCO Shipping Energy (01138) at 65.47% [1] Recent Increases in Holdings (Last 5 Trading Days) - Alibaba-W (09988): +126.42 billion, +88.22 million shares [1] - Horizon Robotics-W (09660): +37.06 billion, +361.88 million shares [1] - BYD Company (01211): +23.82 billion, +22.64 million shares [1] - Other companies with significant increases include Meituan-W (03690) and Ping An Insurance (02318) [1] Recent Decreases in Holdings (Last 5 Trading Days) - Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800): -19.72 billion, -73.80 million shares [3] - China Telecom (00728): -13.62 billion, -233.30 million shares [3] - Kuaishou-W (01024): -10.29 billion, -14.02 million shares [3] - Other companies with notable decreases include Pop Mart (09992) and Meitu (01357) [3]

Group 1 - The company China Hongqiao (01378) announced a share buyback plan [1] - The total amount allocated for the buyback is HKD 2.4636 million [1] - The company plans to repurchase 100,500 shares at a price range of HKD 24.2 to HKD 24.8 per share [1]