Group 1: China Ping An (02318) - The stock price of China Ping An has shown significant upward movement, reaching a high of 62.3 HKD and closing at 61.75 HKD, breaking through the upper band of the Bollinger Bands [1] - Investor sentiment is optimistic, with expectations that the stock could approach 70 HKD, although this level has not been seen for a long time and would require considerable time to reach [3] - Current support for the stock is around 58.9 HKD, with a potential drop to 57.9 HKD if this level is breached; investors are advised to consider low-repurchase-price products for safety [4] Group 2: Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (01398) - The stock price of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China has disappointed investors, dropping nearly 3.5% to close at 6.11 HKD, falling below the lower band of the Bollinger Bands [5] - Current support is at approximately 5.91 HKD, with a further drop to 5.71 HKD if this level is broken; investors may consider purchasing warrants for short-term rebounds [5] - Many products are available with expiration dates from February to April next year, but the out-of-the-money nature of these products makes them less attractive [8] Group 3: Pop Mart (09992) - Despite strong sales, Pop Mart's stock price continues to decline, with a significant drop near the 200 HKD mark; increased trading volume amid falling prices raises concerns [9] - The stock is close to the lower band of the Bollinger Bands, with a support level around 195 HKD; if it breaks below 193 HKD, it could fall to approximately 177 HKD [9] - There are options available for put warrants, with varying leverage and implied volatility; investors should focus on products with lower implied volatility and premium [12] Group 4: China Hongqiao (01378) - China Hongqiao's stock has been steadily rising but experienced a pullback; the resistance level is around 34.5 HKD, and a breakthrough could lead to further gains [13] - Limited options are available for call warrants, with some products expiring in April to June next year, having an exercise price slightly above 36 HKD [13] - Investors are encouraged to select products with lower implied volatility and premium, as the current exercise price represents a significant out-of-the-money situation [13]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 25,776.89, up by 11.53 points or 0.04% as of December 8, 16:00 Eastern Time [1] - The index reached a high of 25,920.31 and a low of 25,712.91 during the trading session, with a trading volume of 36.3078 million [1] - The 52-week high for the index is 27,275.90, while the 52-week low is 18,856.77, indicating a trading range of 0.81% for the day [1] Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - HSBC Holdings closed at 110.515 HKD, an increase of 1.30% compared to the Hong Kong closing price [2] - Tencent Holdings closed at 605.092 HKD, showing a slight increase of 0.02% from the Hong Kong closing price [2] - Alibaba Group (W) closed at 153.400 HKD, down by 1.03% [3] - China Ping An saw an increase of 2.15%, closing at 61.750 HKD [3] Notable Stock Movements - Tencent Holdings experienced a decrease of 0.82%, closing at 605.000 HKD [3] - Alibaba Group (W) decreased by 1.03%, closing at 153.400 HKD [3] - HSBC Holdings decreased by 1.71%, closing at 109.100 HKD [3] - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) saw a decline of 4.01%, closing at 7.660 HKD [3] - Meituan (W) increased by 0.45%, closing at 99.500 HKD [3]

Market Overview - Major blue-chip stocks mostly declined, with HSBC Holdings closing at HKD 110.541, down 0.41% from the previous close; Tencent Holdings closed at HKD 608.677, down 0.22% [2] Stock Performance Summary - Tencent Holdings: Latest price HKD 610.000, down HKD 2.000 (-0.33%); ADR price HKD 608.677, down HKD 1.323 [3] - HSBC Holdings: Latest price HKD 111.000, down HKD 0.500 (-0.45%); ADR price HKD 110.541, down HKD 0.459 [3] - Alibaba Group: Latest price HKD 155.000, up HKD 0.600 (0.39%); ADR price HKD 154.057, down HKD 0.943 [3] - AIA Group: Latest price HKD 78.300, down HKD 0.700 (-0.89%); ADR price HKD 78.371, up HKD 0.071 [3] - Meituan: Latest price HKD 99.050, up HKD 0.950 (0.97%); ADR price HKD 98.981, down HKD 0.069 [3] - Ping An Insurance: Latest price HKD 60.450, up HKD 3.800 (6.71%); ADR price HKD 60.370, down HKD 0.080 [3] - BYD Company: Latest price HKD 99.150, up HKD 0.750 (0.76%); ADR price HKD 98.086, down HKD 1.064 [3]

库存方面，截至12月4日，铝坯加铝锭(Aluminum Ingot)总库存为87.8万公吨，按周下降1%，同比上升 3%。库存水平较2021年同期低，但较2022至24同期高。期内消耗量按周下降，但水平仍高于2022至 2024年同期。 在物料行业中，该行较偏好铝，其后依次为铜、电池、黄金、电池材料、煤炭、水泥及钢铁。股份方 面，该行首选中国宏桥(01378)、中国铝业（601600）(02600,601600.SH)、紫金矿业（601899） (02899,601899.SH)和宁德时代（300750）(300750.SZ)，目标价分别为36港元、12.41港元/14.77元人民 币、39港元/35.5元人民币，及571元人民币。 花旗发布研报称，行业数据显示，今年11月27日至12月3日期间，中国铝总产量为85.6万公吨，按周持 平，同比上升3%，当中铝坯(Aluminum Billet)产量为36.2万公吨，按周持平，同比上升7%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Aluminum stocks strengthened towards the end of trading, with notable increases in shares of China Aluminum, Nanshan Aluminum, and China Hongqiao, driven by favorable macroeconomic sentiment and expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Market Performance - China Aluminum (02600) rose by 5.77% to HKD 11.74 - Nanshan Aluminum International (02610) increased by 3.69% to HKD 44.94 - China Hongqiao (01378) gained 1.94% to HKD 33.64 [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The latest ADP employment report indicated a decrease of 32,000 private sector jobs in November, the largest drop since March 2023, which was significantly below the market expectation of an increase of 10,000 jobs - This data has heightened expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting [1] Group 3: Aluminum Market Dynamics - Recent aluminum price increases were influenced by the performance of silver and copper - Long-term support for aluminum prices is expected due to constrained supply and low inventory levels - Despite December being a traditional off-peak season for consumption, demand remains resilient without significant declines [1] Group 4: Supply Outlook - Global aluminum supply growth is expected to remain limited, maintaining a "tight balance" in the market - A key risk factor is Indonesia's aluminum production capacity, which is being developed due to low-cost coal power and bauxite resources, although the scale of reliable power supply for new capacity remains uncertain [1]

库存方面，截至12月4日，铝坯加铝锭(Aluminum Ingot)总库存为87.8万公吨，按周下降1%，同比上升 3%。库存水平较2021年同期低，但较2022至24同期高。期内消耗量按周下降，但水平仍高于2022至 2024年同期。 在物料行业中，该行较偏好铝，其后依次为铜、电池、黄金、电池材料、煤炭、水泥及钢铁。股份方 面，该行首选中国宏桥(01378) 、中国铝业(02600,601600.SH)、紫金矿业(02899,601899.SH)和宁德时代 (300750.SZ)，目标价分别为36港元、12.41港元/14.77元人民币、39港元/35.5元人民币，及571元人民 币。 智通财经APP获悉，花旗发布研报称，行业数据显示，今年11月27日至12月3日期间，中国铝总产量为 85.6万公吨，按周持平，同比上升3%，当中铝坯(Aluminum Billet)产量为36.2万公吨，按周持平，同比 上升7%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Aluminum stocks strengthened in the late trading session, driven by positive macroeconomic sentiment and expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Market Performance - China Aluminum (601600) rose by 5.77% to HKD 11.74 - Nanshan Aluminum (600219) increased by 3.69% to HKD 44.94 - China Hongqiao (01378) gained 1.94% to HKD 33.64 [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The latest ADP employment data showed a decrease of 32,000 private sector jobs in November, marking the largest decline since March 2023, which was significantly below the market expectation of an increase of 10,000 jobs [1] - This data has heightened expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting [1] Group 3: Aluminum Market Dynamics - Recent aluminum price increases were influenced by the performance of silver and copper [1] - Long-term supply constraints and low inventory levels provide substantial support for aluminum prices [1] - Despite December being a traditional off-peak consumption season, demand remains resilient without significant declines [1] Group 4: Supply Outlook - Global aluminum supply growth is expected to remain constrained, keeping the market in a "tight balance" in the long term [1] - A key risk factor is Indonesia's aluminum production capacity, which is being developed due to low-cost coal power and bauxite resources, although the scale of new capacity remains uncertain [1]

在物料行业中，该行较偏好铝，其后依次为铜、电池、黄金、电池材料、煤炭、水泥及钢铁。股份方 面，该行首选中国宏桥、中国铝业、紫金矿业和宁德时代，目标价分别为36港元、12.41港元/14.77元、 39港元/35.5元，及571元。 花旗发表研究报告指，行业数据显示，今年11月27日至12月3日期间，中国铝总产量为85.6万公吨，按 周持平，按年上升3%，当中铝坯(Aluminum Billet)产量为36.2万公吨，按周持平，按年上升7%。库存方 面，截至12月4日，铝坯加铝锭(Aluminum Ingot)总库存为87.8万公吨，按周下降1%，按年上升3%。库 存水平较2021年同期低，但较2022至24同期高。期内消耗量按周下降，但水平仍高于2022至2024年同 期。 ...

Group 1 - The aluminum sector is performing well, with notable stock increases: Nanshan Aluminum International (02610) up 3.37%, China Aluminum (02600) up 3.05%, Xingfa Aluminum (00098) up 2.29%, and China Hongqiao (01378) up 1.76% [1][2] - Northern regions are experiencing production cuts due to environmental factors, which have a limited contribution to the current oversupply situation. Electrolytic aluminum plants have sufficient raw material reserves, and short-term disruptions in winter storage are unlikely [2] - The price of bauxite remains strong, but domestic mines face short-term environmental pressures, while imported supply is increasing, leading to a weakening sentiment regarding prices. Current alumina valuations are low, and bauxite prices have fallen to the marginal highest cost in Guinea, necessitating caution regarding uncertainties in Guinea's bauxite supply [2] Group 2 - Previous insights from Huatai Securities suggest that supply-demand improvements may become the main theme in the metal industry by 2026. The phase of monetary easing and economic recovery is expected to trigger a convergence in the gold-silver ratio, with silver prices potentially rising stronger than gold in 2026 [2] - The supply-demand dynamics for copper and aluminum industries are projected to be in a state of supply shortage by 2026 [2]

遇建大宗：铝的坦途 20251204 摘要 2025 年铝价已突破 22,000 元/吨，虽未达历史高点 25,000 元/吨，但 明年市场供需平衡，利好铝价逐步上行，对权益端友好。关注 4 月后虹 桥、华通线缆和中孚实业等阶段性脉冲表现。 预计 2026 年铝土矿 CIF 到岸价降至 60-65 美元/吨，因几内亚和塞拉利 昂产量增加。氧化铝市场过剩，期货价格已跌破 2,600 元/吨，预计明年 均价降至 2,800 元/吨，选股逻辑应倾向于氧化铝买入方。 中国电解铝产能接近极限，运行产能达 4,450 万吨。欧美及印尼等发展 中国家的电解铝供应值得关注，以评估全球供需平衡对价格的影响。技 术改造带来的超产对设备有潜在损害，政策执行力度影响供应。 美国对铝征收 50%关税，保护本土电解铝价格，使其免受 AI 抢占资源 的影响。欧洲电解铝厂规模小且设备老旧，面临被 AI 挤出市场的风险， 可能关停 330 万吨产能，对全球供应产生重大影响。 海外电解铝项目投产速度差异大，信发与青山合作模式速度快但不具普 适性。预计 2026-2028 年全球电解铝增速在 2.4%-3.5%之间，需关注 海外项目工期缩减的不确 ...