库存方面，截至12月4日，铝坯加铝锭(Aluminum Ingot)总库存为87.8万公吨，按周下降1%，同比上升 3%。库存水平较2021年同期低，但较2022至24同期高。期内消耗量按周下降，但水平仍高于2022至 2024年同期。 在物料行业中，该行较偏好铝，其后依次为铜、电池、黄金、电池材料、煤炭、水泥及钢铁。股份方 面，该行首选中国宏桥(01378)、中国铝业（601600）(02600,601600.SH)、紫金矿业（601899） (02899,601899.SH)和宁德时代（300750）(300750.SZ)，目标价分别为36港元、12.41港元/14.77元人民 币、39港元/35.5元人民币，及571元人民币。 花旗发布研报称，行业数据显示，今年11月27日至12月3日期间，中国铝总产量为85.6万公吨，按周持 平，同比上升3%，当中铝坯(Aluminum Billet)产量为36.2万公吨，按周持平，同比上升7%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Aluminum stocks strengthened towards the end of trading, with notable increases in shares of China Aluminum, Nanshan Aluminum, and China Hongqiao, driven by favorable macroeconomic sentiment and expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Market Performance - China Aluminum (02600) rose by 5.77% to HKD 11.74 - Nanshan Aluminum International (02610) increased by 3.69% to HKD 44.94 - China Hongqiao (01378) gained 1.94% to HKD 33.64 [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The latest ADP employment report indicated a decrease of 32,000 private sector jobs in November, the largest drop since March 2023, which was significantly below the market expectation of an increase of 10,000 jobs - This data has heightened expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting [1] Group 3: Aluminum Market Dynamics - Recent aluminum price increases were influenced by the performance of silver and copper - Long-term support for aluminum prices is expected due to constrained supply and low inventory levels - Despite December being a traditional off-peak season for consumption, demand remains resilient without significant declines [1] Group 4: Supply Outlook - Global aluminum supply growth is expected to remain limited, maintaining a "tight balance" in the market - A key risk factor is Indonesia's aluminum production capacity, which is being developed due to low-cost coal power and bauxite resources, although the scale of reliable power supply for new capacity remains uncertain [1]

库存方面，截至12月4日，铝坯加铝锭(Aluminum Ingot)总库存为87.8万公吨，按周下降1%，同比上升 3%。库存水平较2021年同期低，但较2022至24同期高。期内消耗量按周下降，但水平仍高于2022至 2024年同期。 在物料行业中，该行较偏好铝，其后依次为铜、电池、黄金、电池材料、煤炭、水泥及钢铁。股份方 面，该行首选中国宏桥(01378) 、中国铝业(02600,601600.SH)、紫金矿业(02899,601899.SH)和宁德时代 (300750.SZ)，目标价分别为36港元、12.41港元/14.77元人民币、39港元/35.5元人民币，及571元人民 币。 智通财经APP获悉，花旗发布研报称，行业数据显示，今年11月27日至12月3日期间，中国铝总产量为 85.6万公吨，按周持平，同比上升3%，当中铝坯(Aluminum Billet)产量为36.2万公吨，按周持平，同比 上升7%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Aluminum stocks strengthened in the late trading session, driven by positive macroeconomic sentiment and expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Market Performance - China Aluminum (601600) rose by 5.77% to HKD 11.74 - Nanshan Aluminum (600219) increased by 3.69% to HKD 44.94 - China Hongqiao (01378) gained 1.94% to HKD 33.64 [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The latest ADP employment data showed a decrease of 32,000 private sector jobs in November, marking the largest decline since March 2023, which was significantly below the market expectation of an increase of 10,000 jobs [1] - This data has heightened expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting [1] Group 3: Aluminum Market Dynamics - Recent aluminum price increases were influenced by the performance of silver and copper [1] - Long-term supply constraints and low inventory levels provide substantial support for aluminum prices [1] - Despite December being a traditional off-peak consumption season, demand remains resilient without significant declines [1] Group 4: Supply Outlook - Global aluminum supply growth is expected to remain constrained, keeping the market in a "tight balance" in the long term [1] - A key risk factor is Indonesia's aluminum production capacity, which is being developed due to low-cost coal power and bauxite resources, although the scale of new capacity remains uncertain [1]

在物料行业中，该行较偏好铝，其后依次为铜、电池、黄金、电池材料、煤炭、水泥及钢铁。股份方 面，该行首选中国宏桥、中国铝业、紫金矿业和宁德时代，目标价分别为36港元、12.41港元/14.77元、 39港元/35.5元，及571元。 花旗发表研究报告指，行业数据显示，今年11月27日至12月3日期间，中国铝总产量为85.6万公吨，按 周持平，按年上升3%，当中铝坯(Aluminum Billet)产量为36.2万公吨，按周持平，按年上升7%。库存方 面，截至12月4日，铝坯加铝锭(Aluminum Ingot)总库存为87.8万公吨，按周下降1%，按年上升3%。库 存水平较2021年同期低，但较2022至24同期高。期内消耗量按周下降，但水平仍高于2022至2024年同 期。 ...

金吾财讯 | 铝业股向好，南山铝业国际(02610)涨3.37%，中国铝业(02600)涨3.05%，兴发铝业(00098)涨 2.29%，中国宏桥(01378)涨1.76%。 华泰期货指出，北方地区因环保等因素影响出现减产情况，对当前过剩局面贡献极为有限，电解铝厂原 料储备充足，冬储难有短期扰动。铝土矿价格坚挺，国产矿短期面临环保压力，进口矿供应开始增加， 对价格的情绪开始转弱，当前考验矿端成本支撑。当前氧化铝估值偏低，铝土矿价格已经跌至几内亚边 际最高成本，几内亚铝土矿的不确定性风险需要防范。 此前华泰证券指出，供需改善或成金属行业2026年主基调。货币宽松经济恢复阶段，有望触发金银比收 敛，2026年白银价格或较黄金更为强势上行。铜、铝行业2026年供需格局或为供不应求。 华泰期货指出，北方地区因环保等因素影响出现减产情况，对当前过剩局面贡献极为有限，电解铝厂原 料储备充足，冬储难有短期扰动。铝土矿价格坚挺，国产矿短期面临环保压力，进口矿供应开始增加， 对价格的情绪开始转弱，当前考验矿端成本支撑。当前氧化铝估值偏低，铝土矿价格已经跌至几内亚边 际最高成本，几内亚铝土矿的不确定性风险需要防范。 此前华泰证 ...

遇建大宗：铝的坦途 20251204 摘要 2025 年铝价已突破 22,000 元/吨，虽未达历史高点 25,000 元/吨，但 明年市场供需平衡，利好铝价逐步上行，对权益端友好。关注 4 月后虹 桥、华通线缆和中孚实业等阶段性脉冲表现。 预计 2026 年铝土矿 CIF 到岸价降至 60-65 美元/吨，因几内亚和塞拉利 昂产量增加。氧化铝市场过剩，期货价格已跌破 2,600 元/吨，预计明年 均价降至 2,800 元/吨，选股逻辑应倾向于氧化铝买入方。 中国电解铝产能接近极限，运行产能达 4,450 万吨。欧美及印尼等发展 中国家的电解铝供应值得关注，以评估全球供需平衡对价格的影响。技 术改造带来的超产对设备有潜在损害，政策执行力度影响供应。 美国对铝征收 50%关税，保护本土电解铝价格，使其免受 AI 抢占资源 的影响。欧洲电解铝厂规模小且设备老旧，面临被 AI 挤出市场的风险， 可能关停 330 万吨产能，对全球供应产生重大影响。 海外电解铝项目投产速度差异大，信发与青山合作模式速度快但不具普 适性。预计 2026-2028 年全球电解铝增速在 2.4%-3.5%之间，需关注 海外项目工期缩减的不确 ...

Group 1 - FTSE Russell announced the quarterly review results for the FTSE China Index Series, effective from December 22, 2025 [1] - The FTSE China A50 Index added two constituents: Luoyang Molybdenum and Sunshine Energy, while removing SF Express and Jiangsu Bank [1] - The FTSE China 50 Index added three constituents: China Hongqiao, CATL, and Heng Rui Medicine, while removing CITIC Securities, Great Wall Motors, and Li Auto [1] - The next quarterly review for the FTSE China Index will be announced in March [1]

中国宏桥(1378.HK)盘初一度涨超4%，报34.32港元。消息面上，富时罗素(FTSE Russell)公布2025年12 月富时中国指数系列(FTSE China Index Series)季度审核结果，所有变动将于12月22日起生效。其中，中 国宏桥获纳入富时中国50指数(FTSE China 50 Index)。 ...

Core Viewpoint - FTSE Russell announced adjustments to several indices, including the FTSE China 50 Index, FTSE China A50 Index, FTSE China A150 Index, FTSE China A200 Index, and FTSE China A400 Index, effective after the market close on December 19, 2025 [1][17]. Group 1: Index Adjustments - The FTSE China A50 Index will include Luoyang Molybdenum and Sungrow Power, while removing Jiangsu Bank and SF Holding [3][19]. - The FTSE China 50 Index will add China Hongqiao, CATL, and Heng Rui Medicine, and remove CITIC Securities, Great Wall Motors, and Li Auto [5][21]. - The FTSE China A150 Index will add Ying Shi Innovation, Jiangsu Bank, Huadian New Energy, SF Holding, Jiangbolong, and Huayou Cobalt, while removing Luoyang Molybdenum, Desay SV, Longi Green Energy, Baoxin Software, Shanghai Pharmaceuticals, and Sungrow Power [9][25]. - The FTSE China A200 Index will include Ying Shi Innovation, Huadian New Energy, Jiangbolong, and Huayou Cobalt, and exclude Desay SV, Longi Green Energy, Baoxin Software, and Shanghai Pharmaceuticals [11][27]. - The FTSE China A400 Index will see a broader adjustment, adding Anji Technology, Baiyin Nonferrous Metals, Yitang Co., and BlueFocus, while removing Chipbond Technology, Yipin Hong, Guanghuan Xin, and Huaxi Biological [12][28]. Group 2: Investment Implications - The adjustments by FTSE Russell are expected to attract passive fund allocations to the included stocks and increase overseas interest in Chinese assets [15][31]. - In the first ten months of 2025, foreign capital inflow into the Chinese stock market reached $50.6 billion, significantly surpassing the $11.4 billion for the entire year of 2024, marking an increase of over three times [15][31]. - UBS forecasts that the A-share market will see an increase in earnings growth from 6% this year to 8% next year, driven by improved nominal GDP growth and a narrowing of PPI declines [16][32]. - Morgan Stanley has set a target for the CSI 300 Index at 4,840 points by December 2026, indicating a stable outlook for Chinese stocks amid moderate earnings growth and higher valuation levels [16][32].