Core Viewpoint - The dairy sector stocks have seen significant gains following the announcement of a new child-rearing subsidy policy, which is expected to boost demand for dairy products and improve the financial outlook for related companies [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Australia Asia Group (02425) increased by 35.62%, trading at 1.98 HKD [1] - Modern Farming (01117) rose by 13.49%, trading at 1.43 HKD [1] - Yuan Ecological Agriculture (01431) gained 9.21%, trading at 0.415 HKD [1] - China Shengmu (01432) increased by 7.95%, trading at 0.475 HKD [1] - Youran Dairy (09858) rose by 8.19%, trading at 4.36 HKD [1] Group 2: Policy Impact - The newly introduced child-rearing subsidy will provide 3,600 RMB per child annually for children under three years old, starting from January 1, 2025 [1] - The annual issuance of these subsidies is estimated to be around 100 billion RMB, which could have a multiplier effect on demand in the dairy sector [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The rising prices of beef cattle are expected to enhance the profitability and cash flow of livestock companies [1] - Under a scenario where cattle prices increase by 40% compared to 2024 levels, it is projected that Youran Dairy, Modern Farming, and China Shengmu could see revenue increases of 440 million, 340 million, and 80 million RMB respectively from cattle sales [1] - The upward trend in beef prices may accelerate the clearing of social ranch inventories, positively impacting the supply of raw milk and subsequently influencing raw milk prices [1] - The focus is recommended on leading livestock companies listed in Hong Kong [1]

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of a new child-rearing subsidy policy in China is expected to significantly boost demand in the dairy industry, leading to notable stock price increases for major dairy companies [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Dairy stocks have seen substantial gains, with Australia Asia Group (02425) rising by 35.62% to HKD 1.98, Modern Farming (01117) up 13.49% to HKD 1.43, and others like Original Ecology Farming (01431) and China Shengmu (01432) also experiencing increases [1] - The overall positive sentiment in the dairy sector is reflected in the stock performance of leading companies [1] Group 2: Policy Impact - The newly implemented child-rearing subsidy scheme will provide annual subsidies of CNY 3,600 per child for children under three years old starting January 1, 2025, potentially leading to an annual distribution of approximately CNY 100 billion [1] - This subsidy is expected to have a multiplier effect, enhancing demand for dairy products and benefiting the industry as a whole [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The current meat and milk cycle is favorable for livestock companies, with rising beef prices expected to improve profitability and cash flow for these firms [1] - Projections indicate that under a scenario where beef prices increase by 40% compared to 2024 levels, companies like Yuran Farming, Modern Farming, and China Shengmu could see revenue increases of CNY 440 million, CNY 340 million, and CNY 80 million respectively from cattle sales [1] - The upward trend in beef prices is anticipated to accelerate the clearing of social ranch inventories, positively impacting the supply of raw milk and subsequently influencing raw milk prices [1]

| 代码 | 名称 | | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 √ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 02425 | 澳亚集团 | (0) | 1.650 | 13.01% | | 01432 | 中国圣牧 | | 0.480 | 9.09% | | 01117 | 现代牧业 | | 1.360 | 7.94% | | 09858 | 优然牧业 | | 4.340 | 7.69% | | 01431 | 原生态牧业 | | 0.395 | 3.95% | | 02319 | 蒙牛乳业 | | 16.320 | 0.12% | 消息上，7月28日，《育儿补贴制度实施方案》出台，方案为2025年1月1日起，对符合法律法规规定生 育的3周岁以下婴幼儿发放每孩每年3600元的补贴，至其年满3周岁。爱建证券指出，这一政策对降低家 庭生育成本、刺激出生率及婴幼儿家庭消费潜力有重大意义（特别是在低线城市），预计将惠及2000多 万婴幼儿家庭，有望直接拉动乳制品特别是婴幼儿奶粉消费。 另外，华泰证券最新报告指，在全球供应链调整和消费升级的共同推动下，中国乳制品行业正迎来 从"规模扩张"向"价值提升"的战 ...

截至2024年年报，原生态牧业营业总收入25.52亿元、净利润2.97亿元。 本文源自：金融界 作者：行情君 8月12日，原生态牧业(01431)盘中上涨5.26%，截至09:36，报0.4元/股，成交132.84万元。 原生态牧业有限公司是中国乳牛畜牧业的领先企业，主要从事生产超优质的原料奶，12个牧场均位于中 国黑龙江省、吉林省和陕西省。公司采用标准化的营运程序——如繁殖、饲料管理及设计舒适奶牛生活 环境，并以其专业知识保证能持续稳定地生产出质量超过欧盟原料奶质量标准的原料奶，并以高价销 售。 ...

国泰海通证券指出，"国补"正式进入生育领域，测算年均发放育儿补贴约千亿，有望发挥乘数效应且有 加码可能，提振乳品等行业需求。招商证券也指出，生育补贴正式落地，政策力度符合此前预期、但靴 子落地仍是积极信号，体现政府对生育问题的高重视度。在全国政策落地与后续地方政策跟进的节奏 下，乳制品板块关注度有望提升。 本文源自：智通财经网 消息面上，7月28日，《育儿补贴制度实施方案》出台，方案为2025年1月1日起，对符合法律法规规定 生育的3周岁以下婴幼儿发放每孩每年3600元的补贴，至其年满3周岁。爱建证券指出，这一政策对降低 家庭生育成本、刺激出生率及婴幼儿家庭消费潜力有重大意义（特别是在低线城市），预计将惠及2000 多万婴幼儿家庭，有望直接拉动乳制品特别是婴幼儿奶粉消费。 乳业股午后拉升，截至发稿，中国圣牧(01432)涨12.66%，报0.445港元；优然牧业(09858)涨8.87%，报 4.05港元；现代牧业(01117)涨8.77%，报1.24港元；原生态牧业(01431)涨7.14%，报0.375港元。 ...

乳业股午后拉升，截至发稿，中国圣牧(01432)涨12.66%，报0.445港元；优然牧业(09858)涨8.87%，报 4.05港元；现代牧业(01117)涨8.77%，报1.24港元；原生态牧业(01431)涨7.14%，报0.375港元。 国泰海通证券指出，"国补"正式进入生育领域，测算年均发放育儿补贴约千亿，有望发挥乘数效应且有 加码可能，提振乳品等行业需求。招商证券也指出，生育补贴正式落地，政策力度符合此前预期、但靴 子落地仍是积极信号，体现政府对生育问题的高重视度。在全国政策落地与后续地方政策跟进的节奏 下，乳制品板块关注度有望提升。 消息面上，7月28日，《育儿补贴制度实施方案》出台，方案为2025年1月1日起，对符合法律法规规定 生育的3周岁以下婴幼儿发放每孩每年3600元的补贴，至其年满3周岁。爱建证券指出，这一政策对降低 家庭生育成本、刺激出生率及婴幼儿家庭消费潜力有重大意义（特别是在低线城市），预计将惠及2000 多万婴幼儿家庭，有望直接拉动乳制品特别是婴幼儿奶粉消费。 ...

Group 1 - Dairy stocks experienced a significant rise, with China Shengmu (01432) up 12.66% to HKD 0.445, YouRan Dairy (09858) up 8.87% to HKD 4.05, Modern Dairy (01117) up 8.77% to HKD 1.24, and Original Ecology Dairy (01431) up 7.14% to HKD 0.375 [1] - The implementation of the "Childcare Subsidy Implementation Plan" starting January 1, 2025, will provide a subsidy of HKD 3,600 per child per year for families with children under three years old, significantly reducing family childcare costs and stimulating birth rates and consumption potential in infant families, especially in lower-tier cities [1] - The annual distribution of childcare subsidies is estimated to be around HKD 100 billion, which is expected to have a multiplier effect and potentially increase demand in the dairy industry [1] Group 2 - The formal introduction of the national subsidy into the fertility sector reflects the government's high emphasis on fertility issues, with the dairy sector likely to see increased attention as national policies are implemented and followed by local policies [1] - The policy's alignment with previous expectations and its positive signal upon implementation indicate a strong governmental commitment to addressing fertility challenges, which is anticipated to boost the dairy product sector, particularly infant formula consumption [1]

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年7月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 原生態牧業有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年8月1日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01431 | 說明 | 普通股 | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 50,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.01 HKD | | 500,000,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | HKD | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 50,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.01 HKD | | 500,000,000 | 本月底法定/註冊股本總額： HKD ...

农业农村部办公厅发布《关于加快奶业纾困提升奶业高质量发展水平的通知》提出，各地要落实白名单 制度，及时向金融机构推送生产经营水平高、信用良好的奶牛养殖场名单，"点对点"做好金融政策对 接。 推动银行机构持续创新"青贮贷"等金融产品，保障养殖场青贮饲料收储资金需求。要将符合条件的项目 纳入农业农村基础设施融资项目库储备，探索采取贴息补助的办法给予支持。 国泰海通证券发布研报称，7月28日国家育儿补贴制度实施方案公布，"国补"正式进入生育领域，食饮 訾猛团队测算年均发放育儿补贴约千亿，有望发挥乘数效应且有加码可能，提振乳品等行业需求。考虑 到适龄人口发展趋势，国泰海通预计未来出生人口数将有所减少，单年度补贴额度也将随之降低，但仍 为一笔可观的财政支出。对乳制品行业而言，全国层面的育儿补贴有望拉动相关乳品消费，尤其是奶粉 等，有助于提振板块景气度，加速供需缺口收敛。 乳品行业涉及相关港股： 澳优（01717）、H&H国际控股(01112)、蒙牛乳业(02319)、现代牧业(01117)、中国飞鹤(06186)、优然 牧业(09858)、原生态牧业(01431)等。 加强银政企户精准有效对接，引导金融机构通过展期、续 ...

农业农村部办公厅发布《关于加快奶业纾困提升奶业高质量发展水平的通知》提出，各地要落实白名单 制度，及时向金融机构推送生产经营水平高、信用良好的奶牛养殖场名单，"点对点"做好金融政策对 接。 推动银行机构持续创新"青贮贷"等金融产品，保障养殖场青贮饲料收储资金需求。要将符合条件的项目 纳入农业农村基础设施融资项目库储备，探索采取贴息补助的办法给予支持。 国泰海通证券发布研报称，7月28日国家育儿补贴制度实施方案公布，"国补"正式进入生育领域，食饮 訾猛团队测算年均发放育儿补贴约千亿，有望发挥乘数效应且有加码可能，提振乳品等行业需求。考虑 到适龄人口发展趋势，国泰海通预计未来出生人口数将有所减少，单年度补贴额度也将随之降低，但仍 为一笔可观的财政支出。对乳制品行业而言，全国层面的育儿补贴有望拉动相关乳品消费，尤其是奶粉 等，有助于提振板块景气度，加速供需缺口收敛。 乳品行业涉及相关港股： 澳优（01717）、H&H国际控股(01112)、蒙牛乳业(02319)、现代牧业(01117)、中国飞鹤(06186)、优然 牧业(09858)、原生态牧业(01431)等。 加强银政企户精准有效对接，引导金融机构通过展期、续 ...