证券研究报告 | 2025年07月01日 牧业大周期十问十答快评 2025 年肉牛大周期或迎拐点，看好国内肉奶景气共振上行 优于大市 |  | 行业研究·行业快评 |  | 农林牧渔 |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 鲁家瑞 | 021-61761016 | lujiarui@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520110002 | | 证券分析师： | 李瑞楠 | 021-60893308 | liruinan@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523030001 | | 证券分析师： | 江海航 | 010-88005306 | jianghaihang@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524070003 | 事项： 据农业农村部统计，截至 2025 年 6 月 27 日，国内主产区牛肉均价为 63.73 元/kg，同比+10.66%，年初至 今累计上涨 19.92%；主产区生鲜乳均价为 3.04 元/kg，同比-7.60%，年初至今累计下跌 2.25%； ...

牛肉行情展望：看好 2025 年肉牛大周期反转，肉价上涨预计持续到 2027 年 深亏驱动去化，国内供给出清级别或及 2019 年猪周期。供给过剩导致国内牛肉价格自 2023 年 6 月份开始 累计下跌近 20 个月，较 2023 年高点价格的累计最大跌幅接近 25%。按畜牧业协会报道口径，截至 2024 年 11 月国内出栏肉牛单头亏损高达 1600 元，且连续 8 个月亏损超过 1000 元。考虑到国内肉牛养殖高度分散 （90%以上养户的养殖规模不足 10 头），实际养殖成本分布高度离散，部分成本管理能力较差的中尾部养 殖户的单头亏损幅度预计更高。 国内肉牛养殖行业类似于 20 年前的生猪养殖行业，目前国内肉牛养殖仍以散户为主，养殖格局高度分散， 养殖环节信息高度不对称，且出栏滞后时间明显长于生猪，因此在长期深亏状态下，行业产能及存栏大概 率出现超调情况，供给出清级别或及 2019 年猪周期。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 证券研究报告 | 2025年06月22日 牧业快评 2025 年肉牛大周期或迎拐点，看好国内肉奶景气共振上行 行业研究·行业快评 农林牧渔 投资评级：优于大市（维持） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the raw milk industry [1] Core Insights - The domestic raw milk market is expected to experience a reversal and upward trend in 2025, driven by a combination of domestic dairy cow culling and rising meat prices, alongside a reduction in imports [5][6] - The industry has faced a cumulative decline in raw milk prices for nearly four years, with significant losses reported [4][6] - The current reliance on imported whole milk powder to supplement domestic raw milk supply indicates a structural gap in production [30][32] Overview of the Industry - Raw milk is the core raw material for the dairy industry, with China being the fourth-largest milk producer globally, yet still dependent on imports to meet demand [3][17] - The domestic raw milk market has been under pressure due to overcapacity and declining prices since mid-2021, leading to significant financial losses for producers [4][59] Historical Review - The domestic raw milk price has experienced two major cycles since 2009, with the latest cycle starting in 2018, characterized by price recovery and capital expansion [4][56] - The current downturn has persisted since mid-2021, with prices dropping to around 3.40 yuan/kg, reflecting a cumulative decline of approximately 22% from the peak [59][63] Future Outlook - By the second half of 2025, raw milk prices are anticipated to rebound due to a reduction in domestic dairy cow numbers and a decrease in imports, as the overseas market has already begun to recover [5][63] - The report forecasts that the number of dairy cows in China will decrease to approximately 13 million by early 2025, returning to levels seen in 2019 [63] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The annual demand for raw milk in China is close to 4.5 million tons, with a supply gap of about 500,000 tons that is primarily filled by imports of whole milk powder [32][30] - The cost structure of raw milk production is heavily influenced by feed prices, which account for approximately 65% of the total production cost [23][24] Industry Structure - The dairy farming sector is capital-intensive, with large-scale operations benefiting from economies of scale and improved production efficiency [25][26] - Major dairy companies are increasingly integrating upstream to secure raw milk supply, indicating a trend towards consolidation in the industry [25][64]