肉奶共振

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每日报告精选-20250822
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-08-22 09:00
| 国泰海通证券 | | --- | | GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES | 目 录 | | 每日报告精选(2025-08-21 09:00——2025-08-22 15:00) 2 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 行业跟踪报告:物流仓储《快递单价降幅收窄,反内卷持续扩散》2025-08-22 | 2 | | | 行业策略:新能源发电《光伏行业研究方法》2025-08-22 | 3 | | | 行业策略:建材《回归常识,探寻本源》2025-08-21 | 3 | | | 行业跟踪报告:机器人《Figure 人形机器人实现无遮挡行走,能力边界持续突破》2025-08-21 | 3 | | | 行业跟踪报告:乳制品《肉奶共振,弹性可期》2025-08-21 | 4 | | | 海外报告:富途控股(FUTU.O)《净入金强劲,Crypto 持续开拓》2025-08-22 | 5 | | | 公司半年报点评:巴比食品(605338)《经营势能向上,业绩超预期》2025-08-22 | 5 | | | 海外报告:北森控股(9669)《HCM S ...
美国农业部(USDA)月度供需报告数据分析专题:中国再度下调2026年牛肉产量,牛价景气预计向上-20250815
Guoxin Securities· 2025-08-15 08:38
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [6] Core Insights - The agricultural sector is expected to experience upward trends in beef prices due to a reduction in U.S. beef production forecasts for 2026 [4] - The report highlights a tightening supply-demand balance for corn, with prices expected to maintain a moderate upward trend [2] - The soybean market is influenced by U.S. trade policies and weather conditions, with a positive long-term outlook [2] - Wheat supply remains ample, with prices expected to stabilize at lower levels [3] - Sugar prices are anticipated to fluctuate due to increased imports and oil price volatility [3] - Cotton prices are expected to remain weak until demand shows positive changes [3] - The dairy sector is projected to see a rebound in raw milk prices driven by a reduction in supply and increased demand [5] Summary by Sections Corn - The USDA report indicates a global corn production increase of 24.92 million tons (approximately +1.97%) for the 2025/26 season, with a slight increase in global ending stocks [17] - China's corn ending stocks are projected to decrease by 0.31 percentage points to 55.50% [19] - Domestic corn prices are currently at a historical low, with a strong support expected for future price recovery [20] Soybeans - The USDA report forecasts a reduction in global soybean production by 1.29 million tons for the 2025/26 season, with ending stocks decreasing by 1.17 million tons [32] - The soybean market is sensitive to U.S. trade policies and weather, with a strong price support expected in Q4 2025 [34] Wheat - The USDA report predicts a decrease in global wheat production by 1.65 million tons for the 2025/26 season, with a slight reduction in the ending stocks-to-use ratio [49] - Overall supply remains sufficient, with prices expected to stabilize [3] Sugar - The market anticipates a good harvest for the 2025/26 season, but prices may remain weak due to increased imports and fluctuating oil prices [3] Cotton - The USDA report indicates a reduction in global cotton production forecasts, with a stable supply-demand balance expected [3] Beef - The USDA has lowered its forecast for U.S. beef production in 2026, leading to an expected increase in beef prices [4] - The domestic beef market is showing resilience, with prices expected to trend upwards in 2025 [4] Dairy - The USDA forecasts an increase in U.S. milk production and consumption for 2026, with a slight increase in ending stocks [5] - Domestic raw milk prices are expected to rebound in the second half of 2025 due to supply reductions and increased demand [5] Pork - The USDA projects a slight increase in U.S. pork consumption in 2026, with domestic production expected to remain stable [8] Poultry - The U.S. poultry market is expected to recover, with increased consumption predicted for 2026 [8]
牧业大周期十问十答快评:2025年肉牛大周期或迎拐点,看好国内肉奶景气共振上行
Guoxin Securities· 2025-07-01 13:45
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][26] Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that the beef and dairy markets in China are expected to experience a positive resonance in pricing, with a potential turning point in the beef cycle anticipated in 2025, leading to a dual price increase for both beef and milk in 2026/2027 [4][26] - The dairy farming companies are expected to benefit from the resonance in beef and milk prices, showing significant potential for profit recovery due to the correlation between the prices of cull cows and beef prices [4][21] - The report highlights that all dairy farming companies are currently trading below book value, with price-to-book ratios between 0.2 and 0.9, indicating substantial room for valuation recovery as the market improves [4][22] Summary by Sections Beef Industry Overview - The domestic beef consumption is approximately 12 million tons annually, accounting for over 20% of pork consumption, with a market size nearing 1 trillion yuan [5] - The beef industry is characterized by a fragmented structure, with most production coming from small farmers [5] Price Trends and Forecasts - As of June 27, 2025, the average price of beef in major production areas is 63.73 yuan/kg, up 10.66% year-on-year, while fresh milk prices have decreased by 7.60% [3] - The beef price is expected to rise significantly due to a reduction in cattle inventory, with estimates suggesting a decrease of over 30% in production capacity [8][9] Dairy Industry Overview - The annual demand for raw milk in China is around 45 million tons, with a self-sufficiency rate of 90% [14] - The dairy industry has seen a significant increase in scale following food safety incidents, with major players holding a substantial market share [14] Future Price Dynamics - The report anticipates that the raw milk prices will likely see an upward trend by late 2025 or early 2026 due to reduced production capacity and improved market conditions [15][19] - The correlation between beef and dairy prices is expected to drive both markets upward, with a significant impact on dairy farming companies' profitability [4][22] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on dairy farming companies such as Yuran Dairy, Modern Farming, and China Shengmu, as well as beef processing companies like Bright Dairy, which are expected to benefit from the anticipated price increases [4][26]
2025年肉牛大周期或迎拐点,看好国内肉奶景气共振上行
Guoxin Securities· 2025-06-22 15:25
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][6] Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates a turning point in the beef cycle in 2025, with a continued rise in meat prices expected until 2027, driven by supply adjustments and improved market conditions [4][16] - The domestic beef and milk prices have diverged, with the beef-to-milk price ratio reaching a historical high of 20.97, indicating potential for accelerated dairy cow culling and a subsequent recovery in raw milk prices [3][20] - The report highlights that the domestic beef market is expected to tighten due to reduced supply and import pressures, leading to a sustained upward trend in beef prices [11][16] Summary by Sections Beef Market Outlook - The report projects that the beef market will experience a significant recovery starting in 2025, with prices expected to rise until 2027 due to supply adjustments and reduced losses among farmers [5][16] - The current beef price has been under pressure, with a cumulative decline of nearly 25% from the peak in 2023, but the report suggests that the market is poised for recovery [5][10] Dairy Market Outlook - The raw milk market has been underperforming, with prices dropping below cash costs, but improvements are anticipated in the second half of 2025 as supply and demand dynamics shift [17][25] - The report notes that the culling of dairy cows will provide additional beef supply, reinforcing the interconnectedness of the beef and dairy markets [19][20] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies directly benefiting from the beef market recovery, such as Bright Meat Industry, and suggests monitoring dairy farming companies like Yuran Dairy, Modern Farming, and China Shengmu for potential performance recovery [4][26]
原奶行业投资框架:2025年国内原奶景气有望反转上行
Guoxin Securities· 2025-06-09 13:21
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the raw milk industry [1] Core Insights - The domestic raw milk market is expected to experience a reversal and upward trend in 2025, driven by a combination of domestic dairy cow culling and rising meat prices, alongside a reduction in imports [5][6] - The industry has faced a cumulative decline in raw milk prices for nearly four years, with significant losses reported [4][6] - The current reliance on imported whole milk powder to supplement domestic raw milk supply indicates a structural gap in production [30][32] Overview of the Industry - Raw milk is the core raw material for the dairy industry, with China being the fourth-largest milk producer globally, yet still dependent on imports to meet demand [3][17] - The domestic raw milk market has been under pressure due to overcapacity and declining prices since mid-2021, leading to significant financial losses for producers [4][59] Historical Review - The domestic raw milk price has experienced two major cycles since 2009, with the latest cycle starting in 2018, characterized by price recovery and capital expansion [4][56] - The current downturn has persisted since mid-2021, with prices dropping to around 3.40 yuan/kg, reflecting a cumulative decline of approximately 22% from the peak [59][63] Future Outlook - By the second half of 2025, raw milk prices are anticipated to rebound due to a reduction in domestic dairy cow numbers and a decrease in imports, as the overseas market has already begun to recover [5][63] - The report forecasts that the number of dairy cows in China will decrease to approximately 13 million by early 2025, returning to levels seen in 2019 [63] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The annual demand for raw milk in China is close to 4.5 million tons, with a supply gap of about 500,000 tons that is primarily filled by imports of whole milk powder [32][30] - The cost structure of raw milk production is heavily influenced by feed prices, which account for approximately 65% of the total production cost [23][24] Industry Structure - The dairy farming sector is capital-intensive, with large-scale operations benefiting from economies of scale and improved production efficiency [25][26] - Major dairy companies are increasingly integrating upstream to secure raw milk supply, indicating a trend towards consolidation in the industry [25][64]