1)去化或已进入尾声。奶价下行4年，行业亏损1.5年，带来奶牛产能已去化约8%(截至25年8月)，叠加 三季度青贮饲料采购季临近，资金需求陡增，或将迫使资金状况不佳的牧场存栏量被动加速出清。以24 年年底产能为基数，该行测算行业有望在今年年底或26H1完成产能筑底，实现奶价拐点。 天风证券（601162）发布研报称，25H1奶价承压，牧企中报表现分化。相较于猪养殖，牛行业的补栏 周期显著更长。从犊牛培育到可投产的成牛，整个周期通常需要约2年时间，远长于猪的10个月补栏周 期。这种更长的生产周期特性，使得行业产能调整相对滞后，因此其周期性的景气阶段往往持续时间更 久。此外，与传统畜禽不同，牛养殖的供给端扰动因素较少(如无禽类行业的换羽等现象)，使得产能变 化趋势的确定性更强。当前肉牛价格进入上行通道，淘汰母牛价格同步回暖，考虑到淘汰母牛占牧场生 物资产存量的重要比重，其价格回暖对当期利润的提振作用不容忽视，有望成为牧企短期业绩的重要助 推力。 天风证券主要观点如下： 奶牛板块：供给强收缩，去化或已进入尾声! 具体标的 1)肉牛在母牛持续减产+奶牛淘牛减少+进口增量受限下，2025H2商品肉牛供给预计进入收缩通道 ...

Industry Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Insights - The dairy sector is experiencing a significant supply contraction, with the potential end of capacity reduction in sight. The milk price has been declining for four years, leading to an industry loss for 1.5 years, resulting in an approximate 8% reduction in dairy cow capacity as of August 2025. The upcoming third-quarter silage feed procurement season may accelerate the clearing of livestock due to increased funding needs [4][27] - The beef sector is at a turning point in a super cycle, with domestic beef cattle capacity being fully cleared. The prolonged loss cycle has driven a deep reduction in breeding cows, which is expected to lead to a decline in beef cattle inventory starting in 2024. The supply of beef is anticipated to enter a contraction phase in the second half of 2025 [5][50] Summary by Sections Dairy Sector - Supply contraction is nearing its end, with milk prices expected to rebound due to a tightening supply-demand balance. The reduction in capacity is expected to stabilize by the end of 2025 or the first half of 2026, supported by seasonal demand during the upcoming holidays and long-term improvements in consumption driven by child-rearing subsidies [4][27] - The financial performance of dairy companies varies, with some showing resilience against falling milk prices due to unique business advantages, while others face significant pressure [6] - The dairy industry is characterized by a longer production cycle compared to other livestock, leading to a more prolonged adjustment period in capacity [6][27] Beef Sector - The beef cattle market is experiencing a super cycle, with a significant reduction in domestic beef cattle capacity. The prolonged loss cycle has led to a decrease in breeding cows, which will impact beef supply in the coming years [5][50] - External factors affecting beef supply are diminishing, with a long-term global beef supply gap emerging due to various pressures on major production areas [5] - The demand for beef is expected to grow steadily, driven by rising income levels and health consciousness among consumers, with a notable reliance on imported beef to meet domestic demand [50][51] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that are well-positioned to benefit from the anticipated recovery in both the dairy and beef sectors. Specific companies to watch include China Shengmu, Guangming Meat Industry, and Fucheng Co., for beef, and Yuran Dairy, China Shengmu, and Modern Dairy for dairy [6][7]

Group 1 - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 to be between 127.43 million and 141.08 million yuan, representing a growth of 40% to 55% compared to 91.02 million yuan in the same period last year [2] - The growth in performance is attributed to the strong sales of veterinary chemical products, particularly the sales of the main product, chlortetracycline, in both domestic and overseas markets, with significant growth in overseas sales [2] - The company's production capacity has increased following the launch of its sixth-phase project, which has ensured supply to both domestic and international markets, contributing to higher profits [2] Group 2 - The global beef cattle industry is entering a new cyclical turning point, with average prices for ground beef in the U.S. rising nearly 12% year-on-year in June, and unprocessed beef steak prices increasing by 8%, reaching historical highs [2] - The rising prices of beef and live cattle in the U.S. are expected to boost the demand for veterinary drugs for live cattle, as local ranchers become less sensitive to drug prices due to increased profits from higher beef prices [2] - The company is the largest producer of veterinary chlortetracycline globally, with 60% to 70% of its products sold overseas, primarily in the U.S., which accounts for about two-thirds of its exports [3] Group 3 - As of July 11, 2025, the wholesale price of beef in China was 63.56 yuan per kilogram, an increase of 4.51% year-on-year, while the price of calves rose to 29.81 yuan per kilogram, up 26.37% year-on-year [4] - The decline in cattle inventory and the rising price of calves are expected to support beef prices in the second half of 2025 and into 2026, indicating a continuation of the beef cycle's prosperity [4] - The company is enhancing its leading position in the chlortetracycline market due to increased usage in large-scale farming and the development of a new animal brucellosis vaccine that has won a major procurement project [4]

Summary of Conference Call on Cattle Industry and Dairy Market Industry Overview - The beef and dairy markets exhibit long-cycle characteristics influenced by physiological factors and insufficient capital confidence, leading to slow capacity recovery and potential price increases lasting up to two years [1][4] - Current asset prices are low, with some companies facing survival challenges due to declining dairy product demand [1] Key Insights and Arguments - The dairy price decline is primarily due to weak demand and low feed costs, resulting in a slower-than-expected decrease in herd numbers [7] - The original milk price has been in a downward trend since late 2021, currently around 3 RMB per liter, down from previous highs of 4-5 RMB [8] - A potential supply-demand balance for raw milk may occur in August 2025, with a more significant turning point expected by the end of 2025 or early 2026 [9] - The beef market is experiencing significant price increases, with wholesale prices rising 20%-30% in the first half of 2025 [17] - The cattle industry is characterized by a long breeding cycle, with a significant reduction in new calves, limiting supply [18] Financial Implications - Beef price increases significantly impact the financial statements of cattle companies, reducing biological asset impairment losses and improving actual income and cash flow [10] - The income from culling cows is substantial, with estimates of 900 million to 1 billion RMB from culling 90,000 to 100,000 cows annually at a price of around 10,000 RMB per cow [5][11] - The expected increase in beef prices could lead to an additional 300 million RMB in income from culling, directly affecting the fair value of biological assets [11] Market Dynamics - The current market is experiencing a significant downturn, with a 13% year-on-year decline in stock levels from January to May 2025 [17] - The domestic beef supply includes local cattle farming, culling, and imports, with imports accounting for about 30% of total demand [19] - The import of beef has been affected by trade policies and the pandemic, limiting short-term increases in import volumes [20] Investment Opportunities - The current low asset prices present an opportunity for investment, particularly in upstream cattle companies like YouRan, China Shengmu, and Modern Farming [16] - A strategy of early investment during market downturns is recommended, as the market is expected to recover [16] Additional Considerations - The long-term nature of the cattle breeding cycle means that even with increased investment, it will take time to see a significant supply response [18] - The relationship between biological asset impairment and cash flow is complex, with potential for higher reported profits if impairment is calculated differently [14] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call regarding the cattle and dairy markets, highlighting the cyclical nature of the industry, financial implications, market dynamics, and investment strategies.

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company is positioned to benefit from the upward cycle of the beef market, with expectations of profit recovery and growth driven by its strong brand and integrated meat industry chain [4][71]. - The company has a long history and has developed a comprehensive meat industry chain, enhancing its competitive edge [10][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company, established in 1930, has evolved from a small workshop to a comprehensive meat industry player, focusing on high-quality products and brand development [10]. - It operates a full industry chain including feed production, breeding, slaughtering, and meat processing, which forms its core competitive advantage [11]. 2. Beef Market Cycle - The beef market is expected to experience a cyclical upturn, influenced by both domestic and international supply factors [30]. - The report highlights the low concentration in China's beef market, suggesting potential for significant price elasticity and recovery following capacity adjustments [49][51]. - Major beef-producing countries are anticipated to see price improvements that will positively impact the domestic market [56]. 3. Business Segments - The company controls New Zealand's largest beef slaughtering enterprise, Silver Fern Farms, which enhances its global trade capabilities [73]. - The brand "Guanshengyuan" is a key asset, with a strong market presence in various food categories, contributing to the company's long-term performance stability [2]. - The company is a major player in the pig farming sector, ensuring stable supply and collaboration across the entire meat production chain [2][3]. 4. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 431 million, 680 million, and 769 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.46, 0.73, and 0.82 yuan [5]. - The company is expected to benefit from the beef cycle's upward trend, leveraging its core competencies in the meat industry [4][71].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply contraction and macroeconomic catalysts are expected to resonate positively, with strong support for pig prices in Q3 2025 [4][5] - The leading pig companies are reporting significant profit increases for Q2 2025, with a notable rise in pig output and a decrease in production costs, indicating a potential for sustained profitability [4][13] - The beef cycle remains supported by rising calf prices and a decrease in cattle inventory, suggesting a favorable outlook for beef prices in the latter half of 2025 and into 2026 [6][29] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - Leading pig companies are expected to report substantial profit growth for H1 2025, with estimates for Muyuan Foods indicating a net profit of 10.2-10.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1129.97% to 1190.26% [4][13] - The average cost of production for Muyuan Foods has decreased to below 12.1 yuan/kg, supporting profitability through the cycle [4][13] Market Performance - The agricultural index has risen by 1.09% in the week of July 4-11, 2025, aligning with the overall market performance [39][41] - The pig farming sector is experiencing a supply contraction, which is expected to drive pig prices upward after a period of fluctuation [5][14] Price Tracking - As of July 11, 2025, the average price of pigs is 14.81 yuan/kg, reflecting a decrease of 0.54% from the previous week, while the price of piglets has increased by 1.79% to 31.89 yuan/kg [48][49] - The wholesale price of beef is reported at 69.82 yuan/kg, showing a slight increase of 0.07% [56] Recommendations - The report recommends investment in leading companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuffs, and others in the pig farming sector due to improving investment logic and favorable market conditions [6][35] - In the feed sector, companies like Haida Group and New Hope are recommended due to strong domestic and overseas demand [35]

Group 1: Beef Industry - The beef cycle in China is undergoing significant changes, with a long-term trend of price increases due to lower production capacity compared to consumption growth. The high profitability cycle in beef farming is leading to aggressive expansion downstream, but this has resulted in substantial losses since July 2023. The industry is characterized by low concentration and severe information asymmetry, similar to the pig farming industry before the African swine fever outbreak. Once capacity is effectively cleared, supply-demand mismatches and price elasticity may exceed expectations [3][57]. - China's beef production capacity is not proportional to its beef output, with a significant gap between live cattle production and beef yield. In 2024, China is projected to produce 520 million live cattle but only 779 million tons of beef, indicating inefficiencies in production practices [19][24]. - The beef import dependency in China has increased significantly, with imports rising from 601,000 tons in 2016 to 2,915,000 tons in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.8%. This has amplified the impact of imports on domestic beef pricing [24][25]. Group 2: Swine Industry - The swine industry is expected to experience a short-term decline in prices due to an oversupply of pigs, with the national breeding sow inventory remaining stable but limited growth. The Ministry of Agriculture has mandated a halt to the expansion of breeding sows, which will impact supply dynamics in the second half of 2025 [87][89]. - The supply of piglets is expected to increase, leading to higher market pressures in the second half of 2025. However, potential outbreaks of diseases in the autumn and winter could lead to a temporary decrease in supply, which may cause prices to rise in 2026 [89][92]. - The average asset-liability ratio of listed pig farming companies has improved from 73.9% to 61.6% between Q2 2023 and Q1 2025, indicating a recovery in financial health among leading firms in the industry [99]. Group 3: Animal Health Industry - The animal health sector is expected to benefit from improvements in efficiency and cost management, despite an oversupply in the breeding industry. The demand for veterinary drugs is anticipated to rise as pig prices recover, which will positively impact upstream animal health companies [84][90]. - The industry is transitioning from a focus on scale to an emphasis on quality, with the development of vaccines against diseases like African swine fever becoming a critical catalyst for growth in the animal health sector [90][92]. Group 4: New Consumption Trends - The pet consumption market in China is steadily growing, with the overall market size expected to reach 300.2 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.5%. The pet cat market is particularly strong, with a growth rate of 10.7% [59][62]. - Domestic brands are gaining popularity among pet owners, with a significant increase in preference for local products over foreign brands. This trend is driven by cost advantages and effective marketing strategies during major shopping events [72][79]. - The demand for pets as companions is rising due to demographic changes, including an aging population and declining marriage rates, which is expected to further boost the pet industry [67][68].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [5] Core Insights - The USDA's May supply and demand report indicates a tightening of global supply for corn, soybeans, and wheat, while beef prices in the U.S. are expected to rise due to reduced supply [5][6] - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in the agricultural sector, particularly in corn and soybean markets, as prices are expected to stabilize and recover from historical lows [5][6] Summary by Relevant Sections Corn - The USDA forecasts a global corn production increase of 43.7 million tons (approximately +3.45%) to 1.26498 billion tons for the 25/26 season, with total usage rising by 24.4 million tons (approximately +1.91%) [16][17] - China's corn production is expected to increase by 80,000 tons (approximately +0.03%) to 295 million tons, with total usage up by 5 million tons (approximately +1.56%) [17] - Domestic corn prices are at historical lows, with strong support expected for price recovery [19] Soybeans - Global soybean production is projected to increase by 5.95 million tons (approximately +1.39%) to 426.82 million tons for the 25/26 season, with total usage up by 13.76 million tons (approximately +3.24%) [31][32] - The report anticipates that soybean prices will remain under pressure in the first half of 2025 due to high supply levels, but long-term trends are expected to improve [34][35] Wheat - Global wheat production is expected to rise by 8.81 million tons (approximately +1.10%) to 80.852 million tons for the 25/26 season, with total usage increasing by 4.38 million tons (approximately +0.55%) [43][44] - The overall supply of wheat remains ample, and prices are expected to stabilize at lower levels [43] Beef - The USDA predicts a significant reduction in U.S. beef supply for 2026, with prices expected to rise by 15.2% in Q2 2025 and 14.1% in Q3 2025 [5][7] - The domestic beef market is expected to see a price increase despite seasonal trends, indicating a potential upward cycle for beef prices [5][7] Pork - U.S. pork production is expected to increase by 1.33% in 2026, with consumption growth slightly outpacing supply [7][8] - Domestic pork prices are projected to decline, but low-cost producers are expected to maintain profitability [7] Poultry - U.S. poultry supply is expected to recover in 2026, with domestic demand in China anticipated to improve [7][8] - The report notes that high pathogenic avian influenza impacts are diminishing, which may support recovery in poultry production [7] Eggs - U.S. egg production is projected to increase by 6% in 2026, with domestic supply expected to remain ample throughout the year [8][9] - The report indicates that egg prices may face downward pressure due to high supply levels [8][9]