中金发布研报称，上调颐海国际(01579)2025及26年盈利预测3%及5%，至8.4亿及9.3亿元人民币，引入 27年盈利预测10.1亿元人民币。因行业竞争充分，维持目标价18港元及"跑赢行业"评级。 该行预计颐海国际2025年收入及净利润分别同比升0.7%及13.9%，至65.8亿及8.4亿元人民币，而2025年 下半年收入及净利润则分别同比升1.2%及23.5%；利润或胜市场预期，主要由于2025年下半年毛利率受 惠于效率提升而好过预期。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that CICC has raised the profit forecasts for Yihai International (01579) for 2025 and 2026 by 3% and 5% respectively, to RMB 840 million and RMB 930 million, and has introduced a profit forecast of RMB 1.01 billion for 2027 [1] - CICC expects Yihai International's revenue and net profit for 2025 to increase by 0.7% and 13.9% year-on-year, reaching RMB 6.58 billion and RMB 840 million respectively, with the second half of 2025 projected to see revenue and net profit growth of 1.2% and 23.5% [1] - The profit may exceed market expectations due to improved gross margins in the second half of 2025, attributed to efficiency enhancements [1] Group 2 - CICC maintains a target price of HKD 18 for Yihai International and a "outperform" rating, citing sufficient industry competition [1]

中金发表研报，预计颐海国际2025年收入及净利润分别按年升0.7%及13.9%至65.8亿及8.4亿元，而2025 年下半年收入及净利润则分别按年升1.2%及23.5%；利润或胜市场预期，主要由于2025年下半年毛利率 受惠于效率提升而好过预期。该行上调2025及26年盈利预测3%及5%至8.4亿及9.3亿元，引入27年盈利 预测10.1亿元。因行业竞争充分，该行维持对其目标价18港元及"跑赢行业"评级。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [2][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights the return of the founder of Haidilao, which is expected to stabilize the related party business and continue rapid growth in the third-party business [3]. - The company anticipates that the related party business will recover in the second half of 2025, driven by improvements in Haidilao's operations and pricing adjustments [10]. - The overseas and B2B businesses are projected to drive the third-party business's growth, with overseas revenue expected to reach 266 million RMB in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.43% [10]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 6,147.57 million RMB in 2023 to 8,118.23 million RMB by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8.99% [4]. - Net profit is expected to decrease from 852.70 million RMB in 2023 to 739.43 million RMB in 2024, before recovering to 962.06 million RMB by 2027 [4]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 13.04 in 2023 to 14.60 in 2027, indicating a potential increase in valuation [4]. Business Performance - The related party business is expected to stabilize, with a low profit margin of around 13% in the first half of 2025, suggesting limited room for further decline [10]. - The overseas business is anticipated to maintain rapid growth, supported by the ramp-up of production capacity in Thailand and enhanced local supply chain capabilities [10]. - The B2B segment is expected to continue its rapid growth due to brand and cost advantages, as well as the establishment of a professional B2B team [10].

Core Viewpoint - The restaurant supply industry is experiencing a gradual easing of competition, with a consensus forming around this trend. The key to significant improvement in the sector in 2026 will depend on demand-side changes, with a prolonged bottoming period expected if demand remains stagnant [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Competition - Recent years have seen a weak recovery in the restaurant sector, leading to increased competition under pressure for market share. However, the marginal benefits from price competition have significantly decreased, and leading companies are advocating for rational competition. The profit margins in the sector rebounded in Q3 2025, indicating this shift [1][3]. - As the peak season approaches in Q4 2025 and January 2026, competition continues to ease, with companies like Anjijia adjusting promotional policies for certain products [1][3]. Group 2: New Growth Opportunities - Leading companies are actively seeking new growth through new products, channels, and markets. Anjijia is focusing on new product development and has adjusted its strategy to embrace supermarket customization, becoming a supplier for major retailers like Walmart and Sam's Club. The company is also planning to enter the halal market, which presents significant potential [2]. - Baoli Foods is enhancing its B2B business by tapping into existing customers and attracting new ones, while also maintaining a steady pace of new product launches in the C-end market [2]. - Babbi Foods has received positive feedback for its new store model, which is performing at 2-3 times the efficiency of traditional takeout stores, indicating potential for exceeding store opening expectations [2]. - Yihai International is expected to maintain robust growth in its B2B and overseas businesses, with a gradual stabilization anticipated for its related parties [2]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The market consensus is optimistic about the easing competition in the industry, with key uncertainties revolving around demand recovery, sustained improvement in market structure, and the potential for new products/channels/markets to generate significant incremental growth. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is rising, which may restore consumer confidence, and there is anticipation for more domestic demand stimulus policies [3]. - The current low valuation of the sector suggests potential for a "Davis Double," where earnings exceed expectations, leading to a significant price increase [3]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The restaurant supply sector has passed its worst operational phase, with competition becoming more rational. Leading companies are making strides in new products, channels, and markets. Given the low valuations, the sector is expected to show elasticity, and a positive outlook is maintained. Key investment recommendations include Anjijia Foods, Baoli Foods, Lihai Foods, Babbi Foods, and Yihai International [4].

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to gradually refocus on the consumer sector due to the recovery of high-end consumption and certain mass-market products, along with the implementation of national subsidy policies and funding demands for "high-cut low" strategies [1] Group 1: Market Trends - High-end consumption, including luxury goods and gambling, shows improvement in demand, while some mass consumer goods like beer and dairy products are experiencing governance and structural enhancements [3] - The long-term policy encouragement and low interest rate environment are expected to boost equity allocation dynamics, particularly in high-dividend, stable performance stocks with valuation advantages [1][2] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Companies with strong global competitive power, particularly in the white goods sector, are enhancing their operational models and supply chains, which is expected to positively impact overall performance [2] - The selected consumer sector stocks have an average dividend yield of over 5% and a projected PE ratio of 13X for 2026, indicating potential for long-term investment [4]

Company and Industry Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Yihai International - **Industry**: Food and Seasoning Industry Key Points Business Performance and Growth - **Third-party business growth** is expected to slow down in 2025, but significant growth is anticipated in overseas and other B-end businesses, aligning with previous expectations. Overall operations remain stable, with a reduction in the decline of related party business to single digits [2][4] - **B-end business** is the main growth driver, with large B customers achieving **100% growth**. Small B customers, despite changes in statistical criteria, contributed several million yuan throughout the year, with expectations for rapid growth in the future [2][6] - **Overseas market** gross margins are higher than domestic, but net profits are lower due to costs. The goal is to achieve profit margins comparable to domestic levels by around 2027 through increased capacity utilization and market expansion [2][9] Product Development and Market Strategy - The company is entering the **fast food market** through B-end channels, developing new products using existing production lines. However, overall revenue growth is limited by pricing factors, with seasoning growth primarily coming from B-end channels [2][12] - The company is focusing on **customized cooperation** with key accounts (KA) like Hema and Pang Donglai to optimize channel matching and improve gross and expense ratios, although short-term impacts on net profit are not significant [2][19] - **Online investments** are being reduced, with the channel being repositioned as a promotional tool rather than a revenue source. The company is deepening cooperation with snack wholesale channels to enhance product pricing and specifications [2][25] Cost Management and Profitability - **Raw material price fluctuations** are expected to have minimal impact due to advance price locking and self-owned factories. Cost stability is anticipated for 2025-2026, with profit growth expected to outpace revenue growth, potentially achieving double-digit growth [3][29] - The company aims to enhance **product layers** and local flavor acceptance while strengthening channel cooperation to increase market coverage and achieve significant growth in new regions [10][12] Market Trends and Consumer Demand - **Terminal demand** in December showed no significant improvement, with growth driven mainly by B-end and overseas markets. Domestic B-end performance is strong due to price and quality advantages, but no acceleration was observed in the fourth quarter [5][8] - The **C-end market** remains stable, with no major new products introduced, leading to consistent growth [5][15] Future Outlook - For 2025, profit growth is expected to exceed revenue growth, with a projected double-digit increase. The tax rate is expected to normalize, positively impacting profits [38] - For 2026, while no specific targets are provided, overseas market growth is anticipated to reach **20%-30%**, with domestic markets still having opportunities for high growth despite high bases [38] Strategic Initiatives - The company is implementing a **two-position strategy** to optimize KA channel matching and improve consumer loyalty while reducing intermediary costs. This strategy aims to enhance gross margins and expense ratios [19][24] - The **small B business** is not setting specific performance targets but is expected to grow rapidly due to its smaller base. However, it may not surpass large B in scale in the short term [7][34] Challenges and Adaptations - The company faces challenges in **product matching** for small B clients due to regional taste differences. Customization is key to meeting diverse client needs [31][32] - The company is gradually reducing support for distributors as it builds its own team to directly engage with small B clients, ensuring effective supply and feedback [33] Conclusion Yihai International is strategically positioned for growth in the food and seasoning industry, focusing on B-end markets and overseas expansion while managing costs effectively. The company is adapting to market demands and consumer preferences, with a clear outlook for profitability and revenue growth in the coming years.

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年12月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 頤海國際控股有限公司 呈交日期: 2026年1月5日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01579 | 說明 | 不適用 | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 5,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.00001 USD | | 50,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | USD | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 5,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.00001 USD | | 50,000 | 本月底法定/註冊股本總額： USD 50, ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The food and beverage industry is experiencing systemic opportunities driven by policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and increasing residents' income levels, which are expected to enhance consumption capabilities [1][2] - The liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment, with expectations of entering an EPS killing phase by 2025, while high-end liquor brands like Moutai and Lao Jiao are recommended for investment [1][4] - The dairy industry has completed supply-demand adjustments, with anticipated increases in demand for milk powder and liquid milk due to fertility and income policies, highlighting companies like Yili and New Dairy as potential recovery opportunities [1][5] - The snack food sector is benefiting from the "lipstick effect," new channels, and health trends, with recommendations for companies such as Salted Fish, Wei Long, Wan Chen Food, and Qiaqia Food [1][6] - The beverage sector is seeing a clear trend towards health, with non-traditional channels gaining market share, making high-growth companies like Dongpeng Beverage noteworthy [1][7] Key Insights and Arguments - The central economic work conference in 2026 will prioritize expanding domestic demand, which is expected to lead to a series of policies stimulating consumption, positively impacting the food and beverage industry [2] - The food and beverage sector has faced significant changes in volume, price, and channel structure over the past six years, with varying performances across sub-sectors [3] - The liquor sector is expected to see marginal improvements in 2026, driven by policies aimed at boosting business and government consumption [4] - The dairy sector is projected to enter a recovery phase, with increased demand anticipated due to supportive policies [5] - The snack food market is expected to gradually recover, supported by rising incomes and new retail channels [6] Additional Important Content - Cost fluctuations are a significant factor affecting the performance of consumer goods companies, with some agricultural product costs declining, providing investment opportunities [9] - The planting area for sunflower seeds is expected to recover, leading to a projected 10% decrease in the cost of sunflower seeds, which will positively impact Qiaqia Food's gross margin [10][11] - The konjac market is facing supply-demand imbalances, with high prices expected to ease in 2026, alleviating cost pressures for companies like Wei Long and Salted Fish [12] - The sugar molasses market is currently at low prices, providing strong support for Angel Yeast's profitability [13] - Innovative companies are leveraging product and channel innovations to drive growth, with notable examples including Nongfu Spring and Uni-President [14] - Efficient supply chain management is crucial for companies, with Dongpeng Beverage demonstrating strong performance in this area [15] Future Outlook - Dongpeng Beverage is expected to achieve double-digit growth in 2026 through strategic measures and product innovations [16] - Wan Chen is enhancing store quality and accelerating store openings, which is expected to improve profitability in the snack food sector [17][18] - Hai Tian Flavoring has implemented efficiency improvements under new management, resulting in revenue and profit growth exceeding industry averages [19] - The restaurant industry is expected to see a mild recovery, with companies like Yihai International and Tianhe Flavoring showing potential for improvement [20][21] - In the liquor sector, companies like Yanghe and Budweiser are expected to benefit from product and channel improvements, leading to potential breakthroughs in performance [22][23][25] - Gan Yuan Food is focusing on expanding e-commerce and high-end membership stores, with a stable development outlook [26][27] - Overall, companies in the food and beverage sector are expected to experience gradual recovery and growth, making them worthy of investor attention [28]

Group 1 - The top three stocks with the highest short-selling ratios are New World Development Co. Ltd. (100.00%), China Resources Beer (100.00%), and AIA Group Ltd. (100.00%) [1][2] - The stocks with the highest short-selling amounts are Xiaomi Corporation (2.196 billion), Ping An Insurance (1.956 billion), and Alibaba Group (1.160 billion) [1][3] - The stocks with the highest deviation values are Bank of China (52.21%), China Mobile (41.86%), and Café de Coral Holdings (40.03%) [1][2] Group 2 - The top ten short-selling ratio rankings include New World Development Co. Ltd. (100.00%), China Resources Beer (100.00%), and AIA Group Ltd. (100.00%) [2] - The top ten short-selling amounts include Xiaomi Corporation (2.196 billion), Ping An Insurance (1.956 billion), and Alibaba Group (1.160 billion) [3] - The top ten deviation values include Bank of China (52.21%), China Mobile (41.86%), and Café de Coral Holdings (40.03%) [3]