研究报告 Research Report 14 Apr 2025 颐海国际 YIHAI INTERNATIONAL HOLDING (1579 HK) 率先布局海外蓄力，第三方客户提振业绩 Take the lead in laying out overseas, and third party boost performance [Table_yemei 观点聚焦 1] Investment Focus [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 HK$13.42 目标价 HK$16.55 HTI ESG 1.2-3.0-3.0 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 HK$13.91bn / US$1.79bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$10.32mn 发行股票数目 1,037mn 自由流通股 (%) 56% 1 年股价最高最低值 HK$18.28-HK$10.62 注：现价 HK$13.42 为 2025 年 04 月 11 日收盘 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a strong willingness to boost domestic demand through policy measures, with signs of recovery observed in quality companies, suggesting an active investment strategy [3][4][12]. Group 1: Beer Industry - The beer sector is witnessing a stabilization in demand, with leading companies managing to clear inventory risks early, which positions them favorably for growth [12][14]. - In Q1 2025, beer consumption showed positive growth, driven by the Spring Festival and a low inventory start for major brands, with national sales expected to increase [9][10][12]. - Investment recommendations focus on high-sensitivity beer stocks, such as China Resources Beer and Qingdao Beer, as well as strong individual stocks like Dongpeng Beverage and Haitian Flavoring [6][14][17]. Group 2: Snack Industry - The snack market is characterized by significant differences in product performance, with strong sales in gift boxes during the Spring Festival and notable growth in konjac-based snacks [21][22]. - Leading snack companies are enhancing product quality and competitive pricing to adapt to the current consumer trend towards value [21][22]. - The report suggests focusing on high-growth companies like Weidong and Yanjinpuzi, which are expected to achieve over 20% revenue growth in 2025 [29][26]. Group 3: Dairy Industry - The dairy sector is anticipated to face a supply-demand turning point by the end of 2025, as upstream inventory is expected to clear, leading to improved market conditions [32][41]. - Policies aimed at boosting birth rates are expected to further stimulate dairy consumption, with significant government support for families [38][40]. - Investment focus should be on leading dairy companies that maintain high levels of investor returns, such as Yili and Mengniu, which are expected to stabilize their profit margins [41][45]. Group 4: Beverage Industry - The beverage sector continues to show high growth potential, particularly for companies like Dongpeng Beverage, which is expanding its market presence and product offerings [46][48]. - The report highlights the ongoing trend of consumers favoring functional beverages, with projected growth rates for various beverage categories [48][49]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies that are effectively leveraging their distribution networks and product innovation to capture market share [46][48]. Group 5: Restaurant Supply Chain - The restaurant supply chain is experiencing a recovery in demand, supported by government policies aimed at stimulating domestic consumption [51][57]. - The competitive landscape remains intense, with a significant number of restaurant closures indicating a need for efficiency improvements within the supply chain [57][58]. - The report suggests that the restaurant supply chain sector may see profitability improvements as inventory levels normalize and demand stabilizes [58][59].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [7] Core Views - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of approximately 6.54 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.4%. However, net profit decreased by 11.9% to around 800 million, and attributable net profit fell by 13.3% to approximately 740 million [1] - The growth in revenue for 2024 was primarily driven by the increase in third-party business, which saw a year-on-year growth of 9.1% [1] - The company is focusing on product innovation and channel optimization to drive profit recovery, with expectations for improved profitability in the long term [5] Revenue and Profitability - The company's gross margin and net margin for 2024 were 31.3% and 12.2%, respectively, showing a decline of 0.3 percentage points and 2.6 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The revenue from related parties, third parties, and other dining customers was 1.97 billion, 4.38 billion, and 180 million, respectively, with third-party revenue growing by 8.2% [3] - The sales of hot pot base products, Chinese compound seasonings, and convenient fast food were 4.09 billion, 790 million, and 1.61 billion, respectively, with growth rates of -0.2%, +26.5%, and +15.7% [3] Product and Market Expansion - The company is implementing a "product project system" to enhance R&D efficiency and expand its B-end product matrix [5] - In 2024, the company achieved sales in 49 overseas countries and regions, further enriching its overseas market layout [5] - The company is focusing on optimizing its supply chain and enhancing market penetration through online and B-end market expansion [5] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 7.14 billion, 7.79 billion, and 8.52 billion in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding attributable net profits of 855 million, 947 million, and 1.048 billion [6] - The expected growth rates for revenue and attributable net profit from 2024 to 2027 are 16%, 11%, and 11% [6] - The price-to-earnings ratio is projected to be 15x, 14x, and 12x for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a stable configuration value for the liquor sector, indicating a defensive characteristic despite being in a bottoming phase [1][11]. Core Viewpoints - The liquor industry is currently experiencing a downtrend in market sentiment, similar to the period from late 2014 to 2015, with a slight decline in overall sales due to weak demand [1][10]. - The price of Feitian Moutai has decreased by approximately 50 yuan week-on-week, with the original box price falling below 2200 yuan, indicating a soft demand in the off-season [1][10]. - The report anticipates that the price of Feitian Moutai will fluctuate between 2100 and 2200 yuan before the upcoming peak seasons of Mid-Autumn and National Day, while monitoring the recovery of business demand [1][11]. - Despite the price drop, market sentiment towards the liquor sector remains stable, with expectations for a smooth performance in Q1 2025 for most liquor companies [1][11]. - The report highlights potential offensive opportunities in the liquor sector due to ongoing policy implementations that may bolster economic recovery expectations [2][11]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor sector is in a downtrend but shows signs of stabilization, with a focus on high-end brands like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, which are expected to benefit from resilient consumer demand [2][11]. - Recommendations include focusing on high-end liquor with solid pricing and market positioning, as well as cyclical stocks with potential for growth [2][11]. Soft Drinks - The soft drink sector is entering a peak season, with an upward turning point in market sentiment. The report expresses optimism for improved performance in 2025, particularly for companies like Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Beverage [3][12]. Snacks - The snack industry continues to thrive due to the release of new channels and product categories, with companies like Weilong and Yanjinpuzi expected to perform well [3][13]. Restaurant Chains - The restaurant chain sector is stabilizing at a low point, with strong growth in customized meal preparation services benefiting from the trend towards standardized dishes in chain restaurants [3][4][13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved revenue and net profit of 6.54 billion and 739.43 million respectively in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.24% and a decline of 13.28% [7] - Third-party sales continue to grow, driven by products like crayfish, while the overall average price has slightly decreased due to the introduction of high-cost performance products [7] - The company is expected to maintain low double-digit growth in third-party revenue in 2025, with potential improvement in related party performance [7] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue is projected to grow from 6.54 billion in 2024 to 8.64 billion in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.24%, 10.76%, 9.96%, and 8.46% respectively [1][8] - Net profit is forecasted to decline to 739.43 million in 2024, followed by a recovery to 884.67 million in 2025 and 1,087.89 million in 2027 [1][8] - The latest diluted EPS is expected to be 0.71 in 2024, increasing to 1.05 by 2027 [1][8] Revenue Breakdown - Third-party revenue is expected to grow by 9% in the second half of 2024, with specific product categories showing varied performance [7] - Related party revenue is projected to decline by 12.35% in the second half of 2024, with significant drops in certain product categories [7] Strategic Initiatives - The company is enhancing its partner assessment mechanisms and accelerating product launches, with over 50 new products expected in 2024 [7] - The company is focusing on refining channel management and expanding e-commerce and overseas markets, particularly with the new factory in Thailand [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 6.54 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 739 million RMB, a decrease of 13.3% year-on-year, which is below expectations due to factors such as reduced procurement prices from related parties and increased marketing expenses [1][4] - The company has declared a final dividend of 383 million RMB, resulting in an annual payout ratio of approximately 95% [1] - The company is focusing on enhancing its product competitiveness through a "product project system" and is expected to benefit from the gradual release of production capacity in Southeast Asia, which may improve overseas supply chain efficiency and increase overseas revenue [1][3] Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company expects revenue from related parties to be 19.74 billion RMB, a decrease of 2%, while revenue from third parties is projected to be 43.82 billion RMB, an increase of 8% [2] - The revenue from hot pot base, compound seasoning, and convenient fast food products is expected to be 4.085 billion RMB, 787 million RMB, and 1.605 billion RMB respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -0.2%, +26.6%, and +15.7% [3] - The gross profit margins for these products are projected to be 33.9%, 33.8%, and 24.7% respectively, with slight changes compared to the previous year [3] Future Projections - The company anticipates a gradual increase in overseas revenue, which currently accounts for less than 10% of total revenue, as the Southeast Asia supply center becomes operational [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 is set at 0.82 RMB, with a projected increase to 1.04 RMB by 2027 [4][6] - The target price for the company's stock is set at 17.83 HKD, reflecting a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20 times for 2025 [4][8]

第三方稳健增长，股东回报可观 消费品/食品饮料 24 年公司营收/归母净利润分别实现 65.4/7.4 亿，同比 +6.4%/-13.3%，公司 收入端第三方业务实现反弹带动增长，但关联方业务受需求及价格影响对业绩 有所拖累。利润端受公司促销加大、关联方价格调整等因素影响下滑。H2 公司 收入/归母净利润分别实现 36.1/4.3 亿，同比+2.3%/-12.9%。25 年看，第三方 业务随着渠道精耕及新品研发等战略落地，有望保持增长势头，关联方业务仍 有压力期待改善。此外，公司加大对于 B 端及海外市场的拓展力度，寻求增量 贡献。同时，公司短期无重大资本开支，分红率有望维持高位，股东回报可观。 当前行业格局已逐步稳定，虽然复苏期竞争仍激烈，但公司品牌优势领先，产 品及渠道不断完善，未来渗透市场提升份额仍有空间。我们给予 25-27 年 EPS 预期为 0.78、0.86、0.96 元，对应 25 年估值 17X，维持"强烈推荐"评级。 强烈推荐（维持） 目标估值：NA 当前股价：14.36 港元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 1037 | | --- | --- | | 香港股（百万股） | 1037 ...

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·食物饮品(HS) 颐海国际（01579.HK） 2024 年业绩公告点评：第三方保持稳健，关 联方有望修复 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 6156 | 6540 | 7243 | 7964 | 8638 | | 同比(%) | (0.11) | 6.24 | 10.76 | 9.96 | 8.46 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 852.70 | 739.43 | 884.67 | 988.50 | 1,087.89 | | 同比(%) | 14.92 | (13.28) | 19.64 | 11.74 | 10.05 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.82 | 0.71 | 0.85 | 0.95 | 1.05 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 15.81 | 18.23 | 15.24 | 13.64 | 12.39 | 执业证书：S0600524 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [1][11]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 6.54 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a 6% year-on-year increase, while the net profit decreased by 13% to 739 million yuan [6]. - The company maintained a high dividend payout ratio of 89%, distributing a total of 657 million yuan in dividends for 2024 [6]. - Supply chain efficiency improvements have led to a stable gross margin, which decreased slightly by 0.3 percentage points to 31.28% [7]. - The company is focusing on expanding its product categories and penetrating lower-tier markets, which is expected to drive future growth [9][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 65.40 billion yuan, with a net profit of 7.39 billion yuan, marking a 6% increase in revenue but a 13% decrease in net profit [6]. - The second half of 2024 saw revenue of 36.05 billion yuan, with a 2% year-on-year increase [6]. Supply Chain and Cost Management - The gross margin remained relatively stable due to supply chain efficiency improvements, despite a slight decrease [7]. - Sales expense ratio increased by 2 percentage points to 11.80%, attributed to increased marketing efforts and rising shipping costs [7]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from related parties decreased by 2% to 19.74 billion yuan, with specific categories showing varied performance: hot pot seasonings down 8%, compound seasonings up 127%, and convenient fast food up 88% [8]. - Third-party revenue increased by 10% to 45.66 billion yuan, driven by new product development and refined channel strategies [9]. Future Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of 0.79 yuan in 2025, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 17, 14, and 12 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [11]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 65.40 billion yuan in 2024 to 88.66 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10% [14].

颐海国际 20250326 摘要 Q&A 颐海国际在 2024 年度的业绩表现如何？主要业务板块的情况如何？ 颐海国际 2024 年全年收入为 65.4 亿元人民币，同比增长 6.4%；毛利为 20.46 亿元人民币，同比增长 5.4%；集团净利润为 7.99 亿元，同比下降 11.9%；归属 母公司的净利润为 7.39 亿元，同比下降 13.3%，每股盈利 76 点 2 分。公司第 三方全年收入增长 10.4%至 45.66 亿元，关联方收入为 19.74 亿元，同比下降 1.8%。集团整体毛利率同比下降 0.3 个百分点至 31.3%，其中第三方毛利率略 有增长 0.2%至 38.6%，关联方毛利率同比下降 3 个百分点至 14%。 方便食品板 • 颐海国际 2024 年收入 65.4 亿元，同比增长 6.4%，但净利润同比下降 11.9%至 7.99 亿元，主要受销售费用增长（30%）及所得税开支增加影响。 第三方收入增长 10.4%，关联方收入下降 1.8%。 • 方便食品板块自热火锅系列销售收入与 2020 年基本持平，低价位产品销量 上升但传统大单品下滑。火锅底料中，牛油品类面临激烈竞争，复合调味 ...