机构：招商证券 研究员：陈书慧/任龙 公司核心看点在于业绩改善+高股息，此前公司关联方业务价格不断下调制约业绩的同时影响公司估 值，目前看这一阻力有望得到改善，同时第三方业务在海外及B 端业务快速发展下有望延续双位数的增 长。公司23 年开始持续开启高分红，未来看预计分红率保持较高水平。我们预计25-26 年EPS 分别为 0.81、0.88 元，对应26 年估值15X，25-26 年股息率均有望超过6%，我们看好餐饮复苏+关联方改善 下，公司业绩上修带动估值中枢上移，26 年目标估值22X，对应股价21.5 港元，空间44%，维持"强烈 推荐"评级。 25H2 业绩有望提速，毛销差提升。据我们近期跟踪了解到，公司25H2 第三方收入增速环比有所放缓， 关联方业务下滑幅度收窄，整体看25H2 预计低个位数增长。利润端看，25H2 公司提升出厂价，同时提 升渠道费用投入和补贴，支持经销商做市场拉动销，因为毛利率、费用率均有所提升，实际效果来看毛 销差有所改善。此外公司25 年继续提升供应链效率，对毛利率也有正向贡献。此外，24 年公司一次性 支付历史遗留的分红预缴税导致24H2 税率35.2%同比提升7.1pc ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Western Securities indicates that Yihai International (01579) initially enjoyed a growth valuation premium, but this has declined due to fluctuations in related party revenues and lower-than-expected industry growth, leading to a shift in market perception from a high-growth company to a low-valuation, high-dividend company, with a "Buy" rating assigned for the first time [1] Company Summary - Yihai International's capital expenditure has entered a downward cycle, and the company has increased its dividend payout ratio [1] - The company is expected to stabilize its related party revenues, with a forecast for revenue growth in the hot pot seasoning segment of 0.1%, 5.7%, and 5% from 2025 to 2027 [1] - The revenue from convenient fast food is projected to decline by 2.9%, recover by 2.4%, and then grow by 5.4% over the same period [1] - Compound seasoning revenue is anticipated to grow by 6.9%, 11.3%, and 8.7% respectively from 2025 to 2027 [1] - The company is noted for its active cash dividends, making its dividend returns attractive [1] Industry Summary - The base material and compound seasoning industry still have growth potential and are not limited to a saturated market [1] - The number of Haidilao stores has stabilized, and there is an expectation for improved table turnover next year due to a low base [1] - Third-party business pricing is under pressure but is expected to improve next year, with steady growth in sales anticipated [1] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for Yihai International are projected at 6.57 billion yuan, 6.96 billion yuan, and 7.38 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.5%, 5.9%, and 6% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 800 million yuan, 890 million yuan, and 980 million yuan for the same years, with annual growth rates of 8.8%, 10.3%, and 10.2% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Western Securities indicates that Yihai International (01579) initially enjoyed a growth valuation premium, but this has since declined due to revenue fluctuations from related parties and lower-than-expected industry growth, leading to a shift in market perception from high-growth to low-valuation, high-dividend company, with a "Buy" rating assigned for the first time [1] Company Summary - Yihai International's capital expenditure has entered a down cycle, and the company has increased its dividend payout ratio [1] - The company is expected to stabilize its revenue from related parties, with a forecast for hot pot seasoning revenue to grow by 0.1%, 5.7%, and 5% from 2025 to 2027 [1] - The revenue from convenient fast food is projected to decline by 2.9%, recover by 2.4%, and continue to grow by 5.4% in the same period [1] - Compound seasoning revenue is anticipated to increase by 6.9%, 11.3%, and 8.7% from 2025 to 2027 [1] - The company is noted for its active cash dividends, making its dividend returns attractive [1] Industry Summary - The base material and compound seasoning industry still have growth potential and are not limited to a saturated market [1] - The number of Haidilao stores has stabilized, and there is an expectation for improved table turnover next year due to a low base [1] - Third-party business pricing is under pressure but is expected to improve next year, with steady growth in sales [1]

该行预测2025至2027年公司营收分别为65.7亿元、69.6亿元、73.8亿元，分别按年增0.5%、5.9%及6%； 同期归母净利润分别为8亿元、8.9亿元及9.8亿元，分别年增8.8%、10.3%及10.2%。 西部证券发表研报指，首次覆盖颐海国际并给予"买入"评级，公司早期曾享受成长性的估值溢价，但随 后海底捞出现关店，颐海关联方收入波动，同时行业成长性不及预期，估值开始从高点回落。在此期 间，颐海国际资本开支进入下行周期，提升分红比例，市场对公司定价逻辑从高成长标的到低估值、高 股息公司。 ...

西部证券发表研报指，首次覆盖颐海国际并给予"买入"评级，公司早期曾享受成长性的估值溢价，但随 后海底捞出现关店，颐海关联方收入波动，同时行业成长性不及预期，估值开始从高点回落。在此期 间，颐海国际资本开支进入下行周期，提升分红比例，市场对公司定价逻辑从高成长标的到低估值、高 股息公司。该行预测2025至2027年公司营收分别为65.7亿元、69.6亿元、73.8亿元，分别按年增0.5%、 5.9%及6%；同期归母净利润分别为8亿元、8.9亿元及9.8亿元，分别年增8.8%、10.3%及10.2%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities maintains a "strongly recommended" rating for Yihai International (01579), highlighting performance improvement and high dividends as key attractions. The company is expected to benefit from positive changes in related party transactions and continued double-digit growth in third-party business, particularly in overseas and B-end markets [1] Group 1: Performance and Dividends - The core highlights for the company are performance improvement and high dividends. Previously, the decline in related party business prices constrained performance and affected valuation, but this obstacle is expected to improve. The company has initiated high dividends starting in 2023, with future dividend rates expected to remain high [1] - The estimated EPS for 2025 and 2026 is projected to be 0.81 and 0.88 yuan, respectively, with a corresponding valuation of 15X for 2026. The dividend yield for both years is expected to exceed 6%, driven by restaurant recovery and improvements in related party transactions [1] Group 2: Revenue and Profitability - For the second half of 2025, the company anticipates low single-digit revenue growth, with improvements in gross sales margin due to increased factory prices and enhanced channel expenses to support market demand. The overall profit growth is expected to exceed 20% [2] - The company is focusing on improving supply chain efficiency, which is expected to positively impact gross margins. A one-time payment of historical dividend prepayment taxes in 2024 will lead to a higher tax rate, but the tax rate is expected to normalize in 2025, releasing approximately 50 million in profits [2] Group 3: Third-party Business Growth - The third-party business is stable, with significant growth in B-end and overseas markets. The company is reforming direct channels to recover profits and has successfully partnered with major retailers like Hema and Dingdong Maicai. The overseas business is expanding rapidly, particularly in Southeast Asia, with a dual-brand strategy [3] - The B-end revenue is expected to double in 2025, primarily driven by partnerships with key clients. The company plans to enhance the profitability of the B-end by optimizing product offerings and reducing reliance on distributors [3] Group 4: Related Party Business Improvement - The return of the founder of Haidilao is expected to boost morale and management within the company, leading to improved related party business. The founder's emphasis on quality management and new brand development is anticipated to benefit Yihai as a supplier [4] - As the overall demand in the restaurant sector recovers, the gross margin and supply volume of Yihai's related party business are expected to improve [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities maintains a "strongly recommended" rating for Yihai International (01579), highlighting performance improvement and attractive dividends as key points, with expectations for a high dividend payout ratio in the future [1] Group 1: Performance Improvement and Dividends - The company's core highlights are performance improvement and high dividends, with previous price reductions from related party businesses having constrained performance and valuation, but this pressure is expected to ease [1] - The company is anticipated to maintain a high dividend payout ratio starting in 2023, with expected earnings per share (EPS) of 0.81 and 0.88 yuan for 2025 and 2026 respectively, corresponding to a valuation of 15X in 2026 [1] - The expected dividend yield for 2025 and 2026 is projected to exceed 6%, with a target valuation of 22X for 2026, leading to a target stock price of HKD 21.5, representing a 44% upside [1] Group 2: Revenue and Profitability Insights - For the second half of 2025, the company expects low single-digit revenue growth, with improvements in gross sales margin due to increased factory prices and enhanced channel support for distributors [2] - The company is also expected to improve supply chain efficiency, contributing positively to gross margins, while a one-time tax payment in 2024 is projected to lead to a profit release of around 50 million yuan in 2025 [2] Group 3: Third-Party Business Growth - The third-party business is stable, with significant growth expected in B-end and overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, South America, Africa, and the Middle East [3] - The B-end revenue is projected to double in 2025, driven by deepening cooperation with key clients and the establishment of a small B-end team aiming to optimize product offerings [3] Group 4: Related Party Business Improvement - The return of Haidilao's founder, Zhang Yong, is expected to boost morale and management within the company, with a focus on enhancing the quality of products supplied to Haidilao [4] - The association with Haidilao is anticipated to improve Yihai's related party business, with expectations for increased gross margins and supply volumes as the restaurant sector recovers [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [2][7] Core Insights - The company's core highlights include performance improvement and high dividends, with expectations for a continued high dividend payout ratio in the future [6][7] - The return of the founder of Haidilao is expected to positively impact the company's related party business, enhancing morale and management within the organization [6][7] - The company is projected to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of 0.81 and 0.88 for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a target valuation of 22 times earnings, leading to a target price of HKD 21.5, representing a 44% upside potential [6][7] Financial Performance - The company is expected to see revenue growth of 2% in 2025 and 8% in 2026, with total revenue projected to reach HKD 6,659 million in 2025 and HKD 7,190 million in 2026 [8][12] - The net profit for 2025 is estimated at HKD 835 million, reflecting a 13% year-on-year growth, while the net profit for 2026 is projected to be HKD 909 million, with a 9% growth [8][12] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to remain stable around 16.7% for 2026 [13] Business Segments - The third-party business is anticipated to continue its robust growth, particularly in overseas and B-end markets, with a significant increase in B-end revenue expected to double in 2025 [6][7] - The C-end business is undergoing channel reforms to enhance profitability, with successful partnerships established with major retailers [6][7] Dividend Policy - The company has initiated a high dividend payout starting in 2023, with expectations for the dividend yield to exceed 6% in 2025 and 2026 [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, Yihai International (1579.HK) [4][15] Core Insights - Yihai International has transitioned from a high-growth valuation to a low-valuation, high-dividend company, with a focus on cash dividends and a stable return [22][24] - The compound seasoning industry in China is expected to continue growing, with a market size of approximately 126.5 billion yuan, indicating potential for further penetration and expansion [22][30] - The company is poised for growth through its B-end and overseas markets, with significant improvements expected in its affiliate income as it stabilizes alongside Haidilao [2][15] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Since its listing in 2016, Yihai International has experienced a cycle of expansion, valuation bubble, adjustment, and stabilization [22] - The company has shifted its market perception from a high-growth entity to one focused on dividends, with a high payout ratio of 89.97% in 2023 and 95.06% in 2024 [24] Industry Space - The compound seasoning market is entering a phase of steady growth after rapid expansion, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.1% expected from 2020 to 2024 [30] - The market for compound seasonings is driven by trends such as increased restaurant chain rates and urbanization, which support the growth of this segment [30] Growth Outlook - The company anticipates revenue growth from 6.57 billion yuan in 2025 to 7.38 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits expected to rise from 800 million yuan to 980 million yuan during the same period [15][8] - The B-end market is a key growth area, with the company planning to establish a small B team to enhance its product offerings and directly engage with restaurant clients [2][66] - Overseas markets are also expected to grow rapidly, with projected revenue of 270 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.4% [70] Financial Projections - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027 indicate modest growth, with revenues expected to increase by 0.5%, 5.9%, and 6.0% respectively, while net profits are projected to grow by 8.8%, 10.3%, and 10.2% [15][8]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Yihai International (01579) has seen a nearly 5% increase, reflecting positive market sentiment despite overall industry challenges in the restaurant supply sector [1] Industry Summary - The restaurant supply industry has faced pressure due to weak recovery in recent years, leading to intensified competition driven by market share demands [1] - Price competition has resulted in diminishing marginal benefits, prompting leading companies to advocate for rational competition [1] - The profit margins in the sector showed signs of recovery in Q3 2025, indicating a potential easing of competitive pressures as the industry approaches the peak season in Q4 2025 and January 2026 [1] - The outlook for 2026 hinges on demand-side changes; a lack of significant improvement in demand may prolong the bottoming period, while notable demand recovery could lead to substantial optimization [1] Company Summary - CICC forecasts Yihai International's revenue and net profit for 2025 to increase by 0.7% and 13.9% year-on-year, reaching 6.58 billion and 840 million respectively, with a stronger performance expected in the second half of 2025 [1] - The company is expected to achieve a revenue and net profit growth of 1.2% and 23.5% year-on-year in the second half of 2025, with profits likely exceeding market expectations due to improved efficiency [1] - Since July, the company has been enhancing supply chain efficiency, yielding significant results; adjustments in distributor settlement methods have also contributed to improved gross margins [1] - The expected gross margin increase of approximately 3 percentage points in the second half of 2025 is attributed to a combination of higher factory prices and lower promotional discount intensity [1]