智通财经APP获悉，大华继显发布研报称，百威亚太(01876)2025年第四季收入录10.73亿美元，同比下 跌4%，主要因销量及平均售价分别跌0.7%及4%。正常化EBITDA为1.67亿美元，同比下跌25%，相应利 润率为15.6%，同比收窄425个基点。中国市场方面，2025年第四季有改善迹象，销量及市场占有率回 稳。展望2026年，公司目标重拾增长动力，商业投资占净收入的比例有上行空间，而利润率改善则预期 是长期目标。该行维持"买入"评级及目标价9.9港元。 ...

Regulatory Changes - The State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) has introduced new regulations for the bulk transportation of key liquid foods to enhance food safety oversight [1][2] - A comprehensive regulatory framework has been established, including a directory of key liquid foods, management methods for transportation permits, and standards for sanitary requirements [1][2] Food Safety Measures - The new regulations include a directory that categorizes 14 subtypes of liquid foods, specifying the use of dedicated transport containers [2] - A management method for transportation permits has been developed, detailing strict conditions and procedures for obtaining permits [2] - A traceability system has been implemented, requiring all parties involved in the transportation process to maintain accurate records [2] Industry Developments - Nestlé has been prompted to recall specific batches of infant formula due to the detection of Bacillus cereus toxins, with no confirmed cases of poisoning reported in China [3] - The revised Food Recall Management Measures emphasize the responsibilities of food producers and regulatory bodies, enhancing the framework for food recall processes [4] Corporate Strategies - The founder of Pang Donglai has announced that the company will never go public and aims to maintain a youthful management team [5] - Yonghui Supermarket has reported a significant turnaround with a dual increase in same-store sales and customer traffic after a strategic transformation [6][7] Financial Performance - L'Oréal reported a 4% increase in sales to €44.05 billion, with all business sectors showing growth, particularly in professional products [9] - Kraft Heinz announced a pause on its spin-off plans, focusing on returning to profitable growth amid a 3.5% decline in net sales [10] - Coca-Cola's Q4 net profit rose by 5% to $2.316 billion, driven by a 13% increase in sales of its no-sugar products [11][12] - Budweiser APAC reported a 6.1% decrease in revenue to $5.764 billion, with a focus on enhancing non-immediate and O2O channels to improve sales performance [13]

展望2026年，集团预期将面临轻微的商品价格成本挑战，部分可被成本管理措施所抵消。该行料中国市 场年内收入将重回正增长，平均售价稳定，而销量同比增长2%。 高盛发布研报称，微调百威亚太(01876)2026至27年销售额及净利润预测，现料2026至28年销售额分别 增长3.1%、4.4%及4.7%，正常化EBITDA增长2.4%、8.6%及9.5%；维持"买入"评级及目标价8.4港元。 百威亚太2025年有机销售额及EBITDA分别同比跌6.1%及9.8%。中国市场为主要拖累因素(销量同比下 跌8.6%，平均售价同比下跌3%)，但自第四季起有回稳迹象(销量跌幅收窄至3.9%)。印度市场维持强劲 增长势头，第四季收入增长双位数；韩国市场在行业疲弱下仍展现韧性表现，EBITDA利润率有所扩 张。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，高盛发布研报称，微调百威亚太(01876)2026至27年销售额及净利润预测，现料2026 至28年销售额分别增长3.1%、4.4%及4.7%，正常化EBITDA增长2.4%、8.6%及9.5%；维持"买入"评级 及目标价8.4港元。 展望2026年，集团预期将面临轻微的商品价格成本挑战，部分可被成本管理措施所抵消。该行料中国市 场年内收入将重回正增长，平均售价稳定，而销量同比增长2%。 百威亚太2025年有机销售额及EBITDA分别同比跌6.1%及9.8%。中国市场为主要拖累因素(销量同比下 跌8.6%，平均售价同比下跌3%)，但自第四季起有回稳迹象(销量跌幅收窄至3.9%)。印度市场维持强劲 增长势头，第四季收入增长双位数；韩国市场在行业疲弱下仍展现韧性表现，EBITDA利润率有所扩 张。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reports that Budweiser APAC (01876) is expected to see a 25% year-on-year decline in EBITDA for Q4 2025, which is 12% lower than market consensus, with a 4% decrease in sales [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Budweiser China is the main drag, with sales and EBITDA declining by 11% and 42% year-on-year, respectively, primarily due to increased promotional activities and significant deleveraging effects [1] - Budweiser Korea's sales and EBITDA for Q4 2025 are expected to decline by 1% and 6% year-on-year, respectively, outperforming industry growth, impacted by a one-time $49 million drag from a tax dispute with the Korean government [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Positive factors include an improvement in sales momentum for Budweiser China starting Q4 2025, with plans to reignite growth in FY 2026 through increased investment in at-home consumption distribution capabilities [1] - The company forecasts a 3.4% and 5.4% year-on-year growth in sales and EBITDA for 2026, respectively [1] Group 3: Dividend Policy - Budweiser has announced a dividend of $750 million for FY 2025, with a payout ratio of 150% and a dividend yield of 5.7% [1] - The company is expected to maintain its current policy of either maintaining or increasing the annual dividend per share, suggesting a projected dividend yield of 5.7% based on a current 19x P/E ratio for 2026 [1]

百威已宣布派发2025财年股息7.5亿美元，派息比率150%，股息率股息率为5.7厘，并将在4月新任财务 总监上任后检讨股息政策。该行认为百威很可能维持现行政策，即每年维持或增加每股派息，这意味着 按当前19倍2026年预测市盈率计算，2026年预测股息率为5.7厘。 智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通发布研报称，百威亚太(01876)2025年第四季EBITDA同比下降25%，较市 场共识低12%，销售额同比下降4%。百威中国为主要拖累，销售额及EBITDA同比分别下降11%及 42%，主因促销活动增加及显著的去杠杆效应。摩通对百威亚太维持"中性"评级，目标价为7.9港元。 百威韩国2025年第四季销售额及EBITDA同比分别下降1%及6%，表现优于行业增长，与韩国政府的税 务纠纷导致集团盈利带来一次性4,900万美元的拖累。正面因素方面，百威中国自2025年第四季起销量 势头已见改善，目标于2026财年透过加大对在家饮用分销能力的投资以"重燃增长"。该行预测集团2026 年销售额及EBITDA将同比增长3.4%及5.4%。 ...

里昂发表报告指，百威亚太公布2025年第四季业绩后股价反应疲弱，可能由于中国业务疲软、管理层对 2026年餐饮渠道复苏持保守态度，以及股息计划存在不确定性。该行认为餐饮业复苏前景不明朗，尽管 认同管理层聚焦家用及O2O渠道的策略，但预期复苏将是渐进过程，且销量回升可能被额外投资及平均 售价下调所抵销。里昂下调百威亚太2026-2027财年盈利预测，但同时将估值前移一年，故目标价维持9 港元，维持"跑赢大市"评级。该行指，仍在等待明确催化剂，餐饮业或O2O渠道若传出好消息，可能构 成上行风险。 ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 | 消费 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2026 年 2 月 13 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 7.83 | 港元 8.90↓ | +13.7% | | | 百威亚太 (1876 HK) | | | | | | 中国市场仍待修复，但股息率吸引；小幅下调目标价，维持买入 财务数据一览 | 年结12月31日 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收入 (百万美元) | 6,246 | 5,764 | 6,070 | 6,277 | 6,465 | | 同比增长 (%) | -8.9 | -7.7 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 3.0 | | 净利润 (百万美元) | 726 | 489 | 679 | 731 | 772 | | 每股盈利 (美元) | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.06 | | 同比增长 (%) | -14.7 | -32.8 | 38 ...

格隆汇2月13日｜中金发表报告指，百威亚太公布2025年业绩，单去年第四季收入/销量/均价/EBITDA分 别按年跌4.2%、0.7%、3.5%及24.7%(按年变动均为内生增长率)。其中，中国收入、销量及均 价/EBITDA按年跌11.4%、3.9%、7.7%及42.3%。业绩延续调整，符合该行预期。报告指，公司2026年 定调增长优先，筑底可期。考虑公司或适度加大投入，该行下调2026年EBITDA预测7.1%至15.93亿美 元，引入2027年EBITDA16.37亿美元；因股息率托底，维持目标股价9.8港元，维持"跑赢行业"评级。 ...

该行称，百威亚太公布2025年第四季业绩后股价反应疲弱，可能由于中国业务疲软、管理层对2026年餐 饮渠道复苏持保守态度，以及股息计划存在不确定性。该行认为餐饮业复苏前景不明朗，尽管认同管理 层聚焦家用及O2O渠道的策略，但预期复苏将是渐进过程，且销量回升可能被额外投资及平均售价下调 所抵销。 里昂发布研报称，下调百威亚太(01876)2026-2027财年盈利预测，但同时将估值前移一年，故目标价维 持9港元。该行指，仍在等待明确催化剂，餐饮业或O2O渠道若传出好消息，可能构成上行风险，惟需 时等待。维持"跑赢大市"评级。 ...