Core Viewpoint - The company faces pressure in Q4 2025 with a 4.2% year-on-year decline in revenue, primarily due to a downturn in the Chinese market, despite strong double-digit growth in India [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Q4 2025 adjusted EBITDA decreased by 24.7%, with a net loss of approximately $12 million, slightly better than expectations [1] - For the full year, revenue and adjusted EBITDA fell by 6.1% and 9.8% respectively, reaching $5.76 billion and $1.59 billion, with the adjusted EBITDA margin declining by 1.1 percentage points to 27.6% [1] - In the Asia-Pacific West region, revenue declined by 5.6% in Q4, with price pressure (down 5.7% year-on-year) exceeding volume growth (up 0.1%) [2] Group 2: Market Analysis - The Chinese market saw a significant revenue decline of 11.4% in Q4, with volume and price down by 3.9% and 7.7% respectively, largely due to increased support for distributors and brand activation investments [2] - The Indian market continued to gain market share, achieving strong double-digit revenue growth in Q4, driven by high-end and super high-end product combinations [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - Management aims to reignite growth in the Chinese market by focusing on expanding non-ready-to-drink channels, optimizing the product mix, and increasing digital investments [1] - Despite a slow recovery in the Chinese market, there is potential for marginal improvement in 2026 due to a low base effect [3] - The company has slightly lowered its revenue forecasts for 2026-2027 by 2% and adjusted EBITDA/net profit forecasts by 1% and 4-5% respectively, while maintaining a target price of HKD 8.90 based on a 20x target P/E ratio for 2026 [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC (01876.HK) with a target price of HKD 10 [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of USD 5.76 billion and normalized EBITDA of USD 1.59 billion for the year 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.1% and 9.8% respectively. The normalized net profit attributable to shareholders was USD 670 million, down 14.4% year-on-year. For Q4 alone, revenue and normalized EBITDA were USD 1.07 billion and USD 170 million, with a year-on-year decline of 4.2% and 24.7% respectively [1][5]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of USD 750 million, maintaining the same level as the previous year, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 153.4% [1][5]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Growth Rates**: - Total revenue for 2025 was USD 5,764 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of -7.7%. Projections for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are USD 5,921 million, USD 6,033 million, and USD 6,150 million respectively, with expected growth rates of 2.7%, 1.9%, and 1.9% [1][10]. - **Net Profit and Growth Rates**: - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 was USD 489 million, down 32.6% year-on-year. Projections for the following years are USD 533 million, USD 563 million, and USD 580 million, with growth rates of 9.0%, 5.7%, and 3.0% respectively [1][10]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - The EPS for 2025 is projected to be USD 0.04 for the years 2026 to 2028, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio decreasing from 27 in 2025 to 23 in 2028 [1][10]. - **Dividend and Yield**: - The company maintains a high dividend strategy with a dividend yield of approximately 5.7% based on the current dividend payout [1][5]. Market Performance - The report highlights that the company faced challenges in the Chinese market, with a year-on-year revenue decline of 11.4% in Q4 due to weak demand in core on-premise channels. However, the Indian market showed strong growth, contributing significantly to overall revenue [5][6].

Group 1: Financial Data and Trends - As of the end of January 2026, the total social financing scale was 449.11 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.2% [1] - The broad money supply (M2) increased by 9.0% year-on-year, significantly outpacing the nominal GDP growth, supporting stable growth in the real economy [1] - In January, resident deposits decreased by 3.39 trillion yuan year-on-year, while non-bank financial institutions saw an increase of 2.56 trillion yuan in deposits [1] Group 2: Robotics Rental Industry - The Chinese robot rental platform, Qingtian Rental, reported over 1,000 orders received for the Spring Festival period, with total orders expected to exceed 5,000, representing an 80% increase in overall GMV [2] - Qingtian Rental is implementing a "City Partner Strategy" to address delivery challenges due to explosive growth and is maintaining a monthly financing rhythm to adapt to market changes [2] Group 3: Beer Industry Performance - Anheuser-Busch InBev's Budweiser Asia and Heineken both reported declines in sales revenue, net profit, and volume for 2025, indicating a common trend of underperformance [3][4] - Heineken's 2025 net revenue was 28.75 billion euros (approximately 235.53 billion yuan), with a net profit of 1.88 billion euros (approximately 15.44 billion yuan), both showing consecutive declines [3] - Budweiser Asia's revenue for 2025 was 5.764 billion USD (approximately 40.31 billion yuan), down about 11.59% year-on-year, with a net profit of approximately 489 million USD (about 3.42 billion yuan), marking a 35.47% decline [3] Group 4: Real Estate Market - In January, the second-hand residential sales prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.5% month-on-month, with specific declines in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [9] - The price adjustments in the second-hand housing market have been ongoing for over four years, with recent data indicating a narrowing of the decline, suggesting improved price-performance ratios for buyers [9] - Notably, cities like Yangzhou and Zhanjiang experienced a month-on-month increase in second-hand residential prices in January [9] Group 5: Gold Market Regulation - Shenzhen's financial management authorities issued a set of ten prohibitive measures to regulate gold market activities, following previous incidents and market volatility [11] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange also announced adjustments to margin requirements and trading limits for gold and silver contracts to manage risks during the Spring Festival [11] - As of February 13, the spot gold price fluctuated between 4,900 and 5,000 USD per ounce, down approximately 10% from a previous high of 5,595 USD [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC (01876.HK) with a target price of HKD 10 [1]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of USD 5.76 billion and normalized EBITDA of USD 1.59 billion for the year 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.1% and 9.8% respectively. The normalized net profit attributable to shareholders was USD 670 million, down 14.4% year-on-year [1]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of USD 750 million, maintaining a high payout ratio of 153.4% [1]. - The report highlights that the company is undergoing operational adjustments while maintaining a strong dividend policy, which is expected to attract investors [1]. Financial Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: - Total revenue for 2025 was USD 5,764 million, with a projected growth of 2.7% in 2026 and 1.9% in both 2027 and 2028 [1]. - Normalized net profit is expected to recover to USD 533 million in 2026, with further growth to USD 563 million in 2027 and USD 580 million in 2028, after a decline of 32.6% in 2025 [1]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - EPS is projected to remain stable at USD 0.04 from 2025 to 2028 [1]. - **Valuation Ratios**: - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 27 in 2025 to 23 by 2028, while the price-to-book (P/B) ratio is projected to decline from 1.3 to 1.1 over the same period [1]. Market Performance - The report notes that the company faced challenges in the Chinese market, with a year-on-year revenue decline of 11.4% in Q4 2025, primarily due to weak demand in core on-premise channels [5]. - In contrast, the Indian market showed strong growth, contributing over two-thirds of the revenue with a year-on-year growth of over 20% in the P&SP product segment [5]. - The report anticipates a recovery in the Chinese market in 2026, with ongoing efforts to enhance distribution channels and focus on premium products [5].

Core Viewpoint - Budweiser is facing unprecedented growth pressure in the Chinese market, with declining sales and profits reported in its latest earnings report [1][2]. Financial Performance - Budweiser APAC reported a revenue of $5.764 billion (approximately 39.787 billion RMB) for 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 6.1% [1]. - Beer sales reached 7.966 billion liters, down 6.0% year-on-year [1]. - The profit attributable to equity holders was $489 million (approximately 3.375 billion RMB), a significant decline of 32.6%, marking a low point in net profit over recent years [1]. Market Challenges - The company has experienced a continuous decline in key metrics, with beer sales and revenue in China dropping by 8.6% and 11.3% respectively in 2025 [2]. - The decline is attributed to a slowdown in high-end dining and entertainment channels, which have traditionally been strong for Budweiser [2]. - The company has been slow to adapt to new retail and e-commerce channels, with a lower proportion of non-on-premise sales compared to competitors [2]. Strategic Initiatives - Budweiser is increasing investments in non-on-premise channels and enhancing its sales team capabilities, particularly in Guangdong [2]. - The company is also focusing on marketing its core sub-brands, including new endorsements for Harbin Beer to strengthen connections with younger consumers [2]. Cost Pressures - Increased investments to support distributors and brand promotion in emerging channels have created additional profit pressures for Budweiser [3]. - The company plans to maintain high-intensity marketing and channel investments in 2026, coinciding with the World Cup events [3]. Industry Context - The domestic beer industry is entering a contraction phase, with local brands accelerating their premiumization and channel transformation, increasing pressure on international giants like Budweiser [3][4]. - Competitors such as Yanjing Beer and Chongqing Beer are forecasting significant profit growth, with Yanjing expected to achieve a net profit of 1.584 billion to 1.742 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 50%-65% [3][4]. Leadership Focus - CEO Cheng Yanjun has emphasized the need to reignite growth and rebuild market share in China as a primary task [4].

Core Viewpoint - Budweiser APAC (01876) reported a revenue of $1.073 billion for Q4 2025, representing a 4% year-on-year decline, primarily due to a 0.7% drop in sales volume and a 4% decrease in average selling price [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Normalized EBITDA for Q4 2025 was $167 million, down 25% year-on-year, with a corresponding profit margin of 15.6%, which contracted by 425 basis points [1] - The company aims to restore growth momentum in 2026, with an upward potential for the proportion of commercial investment relative to net income, while profit margin improvement is expected to be a long-term goal [1] Group 2: Market Insights - In the Chinese market, there are signs of improvement in Q4 2025, with sales volume and market share stabilizing [1] Group 3: Analyst Rating - The firm maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 9.9 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Budweiser APAC (01876) reported a revenue of $1.073 billion for Q4 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 4% due to a decrease in sales volume and average selling price by 0.7% and 4% respectively [1] Financial Performance - Normalized EBITDA for Q4 2025 was $167 million, down 25% year-on-year, with a corresponding profit margin of 15.6%, which represents a contraction of 425 basis points [1] Market Insights - In the Chinese market, there are signs of improvement in Q4 2025, with sales volume and market share stabilizing [1] Future Outlook - For 2026, the company aims to regain growth momentum, with an upward potential for the proportion of commercial investment relative to net income, while profit margin improvement is expected to be a long-term goal [1] Analyst Rating - The firm maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 9.9 [1]

Regulatory Changes - The State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) has introduced new regulations for the bulk transportation of key liquid foods to enhance food safety oversight [1][2] - A comprehensive regulatory framework has been established, including a directory of key liquid foods, management methods for transportation permits, and standards for sanitary requirements [1][2] Food Safety Measures - The new regulations include a directory that categorizes 14 subtypes of liquid foods, specifying the use of dedicated transport containers [2] - A management method for transportation permits has been developed, detailing strict conditions and procedures for obtaining permits [2] - A traceability system has been implemented, requiring all parties involved in the transportation process to maintain accurate records [2] Industry Developments - Nestlé has been prompted to recall specific batches of infant formula due to the detection of Bacillus cereus toxins, with no confirmed cases of poisoning reported in China [3] - The revised Food Recall Management Measures emphasize the responsibilities of food producers and regulatory bodies, enhancing the framework for food recall processes [4] Corporate Strategies - The founder of Pang Donglai has announced that the company will never go public and aims to maintain a youthful management team [5] - Yonghui Supermarket has reported a significant turnaround with a dual increase in same-store sales and customer traffic after a strategic transformation [6][7] Financial Performance - L'Oréal reported a 4% increase in sales to €44.05 billion, with all business sectors showing growth, particularly in professional products [9] - Kraft Heinz announced a pause on its spin-off plans, focusing on returning to profitable growth amid a 3.5% decline in net sales [10] - Coca-Cola's Q4 net profit rose by 5% to $2.316 billion, driven by a 13% increase in sales of its no-sugar products [11][12] - Budweiser APAC reported a 6.1% decrease in revenue to $5.764 billion, with a focus on enhancing non-immediate and O2O channels to improve sales performance [13]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its sales and net profit forecasts for Budweiser APAC (01876) for 2026 to 2027, projecting sales growth of 3.1%, 4.4%, and 4.7% for the respective years, with normalized EBITDA growth of 2.4%, 8.6%, and 9.5% [1] Group 1: Sales and Profit Forecasts - The organic sales and EBITDA for Budweiser APAC are expected to decline by 6.1% and 9.8% year-on-year in 2025 [1] - The Chinese market is identified as the main drag, with sales volume down 8.6% and average selling price down 3% year-on-year [1] - There are signs of stabilization in the fourth quarter, with the sales volume decline narrowing to 3.9% [1] Group 2: Market Performance - The Indian market continues to show strong growth, with double-digit revenue growth in the fourth quarter [1] - The South Korean market demonstrates resilience despite industry weakness, with an expansion in EBITDA profit margins [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - For 2026, the group anticipates slight challenges from commodity price costs, which may be offset by cost management measures [1] - Revenue in the Chinese market is expected to return to positive growth within the year, with stable average selling prices and a projected 2% year-on-year increase in sales volume [1]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has adjusted Budweiser APAC's (01876) sales and net profit forecasts for 2026 to 2027, expecting sales growth of 3.1%, 4.4%, and 4.7% for the years 2026 to 2028, with normalized EBITDA growth of 2.4%, 8.6%, and 9.5% respectively [1] - For 2025, Budweiser APAC's organic sales and EBITDA are projected to decline by 6.1% and 9.8% year-on-year, primarily due to challenges in the Chinese market, where sales volume decreased by 8.6% and average selling price fell by 3% [1] - There are signs of stabilization in the Chinese market starting from the fourth quarter, with the sales volume decline narrowing to 3.9%, while the Indian market continues to show strong double-digit revenue growth in the fourth quarter [1] Group 2 - The South Korean market has demonstrated resilience despite industry weakness, with EBITDA profit margins expanding [1] - Looking ahead to 2026, the group anticipates facing slight commodity price cost challenges, which may be offset by cost management measures [1] - The company expects revenue in the Chinese market to return to positive growth within the year, with stable average selling prices and a projected sales volume increase of 2% year-on-year [1]