Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies in the consumer staples sector, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and others, indicating a positive outlook for these stocks [1]. Core Insights - The wholesale prices of Baijiu have mostly declined, with notable decreases in prices for Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, while prices for most consumer goods remain stable [4][10]. - The report highlights a significant drop in the discount rates for liquid milk products, indicating a shift in consumer purchasing behavior [6][18]. - Overall, the report suggests that the impact of funds is greater, advising attention to low-position stocks and heavyweight stocks in the consumer staples sector [8]. Summary by Sections Baijiu Pricing - Guizhou Moutai's wholesale prices for Feitian (case and single bottle) are 1790 and 1770 yuan, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 55 and 70 yuan from the previous month [4][37]. - Wuliangye's eighth-generation price is 895 yuan, down 25 yuan from last month [4][37]. - Luzhou Laojiao's Guojiao 1573 price increased by 10 yuan to 850 yuan [4][37]. Consumer Goods Pricing - The average discount rate for liquid milk products decreased from 74.8% to 69.4% since the end of August [6][21]. - Discount rates for soft drinks, condiments, instant foods, and beer remained stable, with slight variations in average and median values [19][35]. - The report notes that the discount rate for infant formula products also showed a minor decrease from 89.5% to 88.7% [21][35]. Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring low-position stocks and heavyweight stocks due to the greater impact of funds on the market [8].

Investment Rating - The report provides various investment ratings for companies in the consumer staples sector, with "Outperform" ratings for several companies including China Feihe, Haidilao, and China Resources Beer, while Budweiser APAC is rated "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The overall cost indices for six categories of consumer goods showed mixed trends, indicating stability in the market. Spot cost indices for soft drinks, beer, instant noodles, dairy products, frozen foods, and seasonings changed by +0.97%, +0.51%, +0.26%, -0.13%, -0.44%, and -0.57% respectively, while futures cost indices changed by -1.08%, +1.06%, -1.06%, -1.67%, -0.78%, and -0.06% respectively [31][32][33][34][35][36][37]. Summary by Category Beer - The spot cost index for beer increased by 0.51% month-on-month, while the futures index rose by 1.06%. Year-to-date, the spot and futures indices have decreased by 3.71% and 4.95% respectively [12][32]. Seasonings - The spot cost index for seasonings decreased by 0.57% month-on-month, while the futures index fell by 0.06%. Year-to-date, the indices have changed by -2.41% and -6.71% respectively [15][33]. Dairy Products - The spot cost index for dairy products decreased by 0.13% month-on-month, while the futures index fell by 1.67%. Year-to-date, the indices have changed by -3.36% and -3.93% respectively [18][34]. Instant Noodles - The spot cost index for instant noodles increased by 0.26% month-on-month, while the futures index decreased by 1.06%. Year-to-date, the indices have changed by -3.23% and -6.06% respectively [22][35]. Frozen Foods - The spot cost index for frozen foods decreased by 0.44% month-on-month, while the futures index fell by 0.78%. Year-to-date, the indices have changed by -2.3% and -3.37% respectively [25][36]. Soft Drinks - The spot cost index for soft drinks rose by 0.97% month-on-month, while the futures index fell by 1.08%. Year-to-date, the indices have changed by -4.19% and -10.86% respectively [28][37].

Core Viewpoint - DBS maintains a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC (01876) due to low valuation and attractive dividend yield, while lowering the target price from HKD 9.6 to HKD 9.4 [1] Financial Forecasts - DBS has reduced Budweiser APAC's earnings forecast for FY2025 by 11% due to weak performance in the Chinese market [1] - Earnings forecasts for FY2026 and FY2027 have been lowered by 5% each [1] Market Performance - The company is expected to face pressure on sales volume and average selling price in the Chinese market for Q3 this year [1] - Streamlined channel inventory is anticipated to pave the way for potential sales rebound in Q4 [1] - Budweiser APAC's performance in South Korea has been strong, supported by favorable brand and channel mix as well as price increase measures, leading to a significant rise in average selling price [1]

Core Viewpoint - DBS maintains a "Buy" rating on Budweiser APAC (01876) due to low valuation and attractive dividend yield, adjusting the target price from HKD 9.6 to HKD 9.4 [1] Financial Forecasts - The earnings forecast for Budweiser APAC for FY2025 has been reduced by 11% due to weak performance in the Chinese market [1] - Earnings forecasts for FY2026 and FY2027 have each been lowered by 5% [1] Market Performance - Despite anticipated pressure on sales and average selling prices in the Chinese market for Q3, streamlined channel inventory is expected to pave the way for potential sales rebound in Q4 [1] - Budweiser APAC's performance in South Korea has been strong, supported by favorable brand and channel mix as well as price increase measures, leading to a significant rise in average selling prices [1]

星展报告指，尽管预期百威亚太第三季在中国市场面临销量与平均售价压力，但认为精简的渠道库存可 为第四季的潜在销量反弹铺路。百威亚太在韩国业务表现优异，主要是受到有利的品牌、渠道组合及提 价措施，支持平均售价显著提升。星展将百威亚太2025财年预测盈利下调11%，2026及2027财年预测盈 利各下调5%；考虑到估值偏低及股息收益可观，维持"买入"评级，目标价由9.6港元下调至9.4港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts that Budweiser APAC's Q3 natural revenue and EBITDA will decline by 7% and 9% year-on-year, with a worsening trend compared to Q2's declines of 3.9% and 4.5% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Chinese market continues to drag down performance, with moderate demand affected by current anti-extravagance policies and intense promotions from delivery platforms [1] - The South Korean market also shows a slowdown in Q3 due to weakened consumer sentiment, although price increases in November 2024 and April 2025 are expected to provide support [1] Group 2: Future Projections - For 2025, Budweiser APAC's sales and EBITDA are forecasted to decline by 4.7% and 5.7% year-on-year, with a compound annual growth rate of 4.5% and 6.5% from 2025 to 2027, excluding exchange rate factors [1] - The company is expected to increase its dividend payout ratio to 125% to maintain a total dividend of $750 million in 2025, implying a dividend yield of 5.5%, which provides downside support for the stock price [1] Group 3: Rating and Target Price - Morgan Stanley maintains a "Neutral" rating on Budweiser APAC, lowering the target price from HKD 9 to HKD 8.5 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has downgraded Budweiser APAC's target price by 5.6% from HKD 9 to HKD 8.5, maintaining a "Neutral" rating [1] Financial Projections - The company’s EBITDA forecast has been reduced by 5-7%, with expected sales and EBITDA for 2025 projected to decline by 4.7% and 5.7% year-on-year, respectively [1] - For the period of 2025-2027, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.5% for sales and 6.5% for EBITDA is anticipated, excluding foreign exchange effects [1] Dividend Expectations - The dividend payout ratio is expected to increase to 125% to maintain a total dividend of USD 750 million for 2025, which is consistent with 2024, resulting in an attractive dividend yield of 5.5 that may support the stock price [1] Market Performance Insights - In Q3 2025, organic revenue and EBITDA are expected to decline by 7% and 9% year-on-year, respectively, with a more significant drop compared to Q2 [1] - The Chinese market continues to be a drag due to anti-extravagance policies and promotional activities that have accelerated the overall market demand slump [1] - Despite a low base, EBITDA growth in the Chinese market is expected to turn positive in Q4 2025 [1] - The South Korean market is also experiencing a slowdown in Q3 2025 due to weak consumer sentiment, although price increases are providing some positive momentum that may continue into Q4 2025 [1]

小摩下调对该公司EBITDA预测5-7%后，预计百威亚太2025年的销售额/EBITDA将同比下降 4.7%/5.7%，2025-2027年期间实现4.5%/6.5%的复合年增长率（扣除外汇基本）。小摩预计其派息比率 将提高至125%，以维持2025年7.5亿美元的总股息（与2024年持平），这意味着5.5%的股息收益率将具 有吸引力，为股价下行提供支撑。 智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通发布研报称，下调百威亚太(01876)目标价5.6%，从9港元下调至8.5港元， 维持"中性"评级。 小摩预计，百威亚太2025年第三季度有机收入/EBITDA同比下降7%/9%， 跌幅高于第二季度。中国市 场仍然是个拖累，反奢靡政策以及外卖促销活动加速整体市场需求的低迷。鉴于基数较低，小摩预计中 国市场EBITDA增长将在2025年第四季转正。由于消费情绪疲软，韩国市场2025年第三季也出现放缓。 然而，价格上升带来的利好对增长有帮助，这种势头或持续到2025年第四季。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has downgraded Budweiser APAC's earnings and sales forecasts due to challenging market conditions, particularly weak beer demand in China during Q3, affecting its premium and super-premium beer categories [1][2]. Summary by Category Earnings Forecast - Budweiser APAC's earnings forecast for 2025 has been reduced by 14% [1][2]. - The earnings forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have also been lowered by 8% based on the low base from 2025 [1][2]. Sales and Operating Profit - Sales and operating profit forecasts for Budweiser APAC have been adjusted downwards by 7% and 13%, respectively [1][2]. Target Price and Rating - The target price for Budweiser APAC has been decreased from HKD 9.5 to HKD 9.3, while the rating remains "Overweight" [1][2].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has downgraded Budweiser APAC's (01876) 2025 earnings forecast by 14% due to ongoing challenging market conditions, particularly in China where beer demand remains weak in Q3 [1] Financial Projections - Sales and operating profit forecasts have been reduced by 7% and 13% respectively, reflecting the impact of weak demand on the company's premium and super-premium beer categories [1] - The earnings forecast for 2026 to 2027 has been adjusted downwards by 8% from the low base of 2025 [1] Target Price and Rating - The target price for Budweiser APAC has been lowered from HKD 9.5 to HKD 9.3, while maintaining an "Overweight" rating [1]