Group 1 - Citi has revised Budweiser APAC's (01876) sales forecasts for 2025 to 2027 down by 3%, 4%, and 4% respectively, reflecting a weaker outlook for the second half of 2025 in China [1] - Due to weakened operating leverage, the core net profit forecasts for Budweiser APAC for 2025 to 2027 have been reduced by 10%, 10%, and 9% respectively [1] - The target price for Budweiser APAC has been lowered from HKD 12.4 to HKD 11.4, while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Group 2 - The company anticipates that sales in the fourth quarter of last year will also be negatively impacted due to the later timing of the Lunar New Year in 2026 [1] - The preference order for the Chinese beer industry remains unchanged, with China Resources Beer (00291), Budweiser APAC, and Tsingtao Brewery (600600) (00168) ranked accordingly [1]

Group 1 - Citi has lowered Budweiser APAC's (01876) sales forecasts for 2025 to 2027 by 3%, 4%, and 4% respectively, reflecting a weaker outlook for the Chinese business in the second half of 2025 [1] - Due to weakened operating leverage, core net profit forecasts for Budweiser APAC for 2025 to 2027 have been reduced by 10%, 10%, and 9% respectively [1] - The target price for Budweiser APAC has been adjusted from HKD 12.4 to HKD 11.4, while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Group 2 - The sales in the fourth quarter of last year are expected to be negatively impacted due to the later timing of the Lunar New Year in 2026 [1] - The preference order for the Chinese beer industry remains unchanged, with China Resources Beer (00291), Budweiser APAC, and Tsingtao Brewery (00168) ranked accordingly [1]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup has lowered Budweiser APAC's sales forecasts for 2025 to 2027 by 3%, 4%, and 4% respectively, reflecting a weaker-than-expected outlook for the second half of 2025 in China [1] - The sales in the fourth quarter of last year will also be negatively impacted due to the later timing of the Lunar New Year in 2026 [1] - Due to weakened operating leverage, Citigroup has reduced Budweiser APAC's core net profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 by 10%, 10%, and 9% respectively [1] - The target price for Budweiser APAC has been adjusted from HKD 12.4 to HKD 11.4, while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - Citigroup's preference order for the domestic beer industry remains unchanged, ranking China Resources Beer, Budweiser APAC, and Tsingtao Brewery [1]

花旗发表报告表示，将百威亚太(1876.HK)2025至2027年销售预测分别下调3%、4%及4%，以反映2025 年下半年中国业务前景较预期逊色。该行认为，去年第四季销售亦会因2026年农历新年时间较迟而受到 更大负面影响。由于经营杠杆转弱，该行将百威亚太2025至2027年核心净利润预测分别下调10%、10% 及9%，目标价由12.4港元下调至11.4港元，维持"买入"评级。花旗对中国啤酒行业的偏好次序保持不 变，依次为华润啤酒(0291.HK)、百威亚太及青岛啤酒(0168.HK)。 ...

Summary of the Conference Call Transcript Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Consumer Sector - **Outlook**: The sector is believed to be in the early stage of a multi-year recovery cycle that began in Q3 2024, with expectations for gradual improvement in consumer sentiment and spending through 2026E [2][11][12] Key Insights - **Valuation**: MSCI China Consumer Discretionary and Staples are trading at 17x and 15x 12-month forward PE, approximately one standard deviation below the 10-year averages, indicating that current valuations do not reflect a potential consumption recovery [2][9] - **Consumer Confidence**: The China Consumer Confidence Index has been trending upwards since September 2024, suggesting a gradual restoration of consumer confidence despite ongoing challenges in the property market [12][19] - **K-shaped Recovery**: The recovery is characterized by a K-shaped trend, where mid- to high-income consumers in tier-1 cities are expected to lead spending, while lower-tier city consumers remain focused on value for money [3][48] Consumer Behavior Trends - **Shifting Preferences**: A UBS Evidence Lab survey indicates a divergence in consumer behavior, with over 50% of mid- to high-income consumers reporting investment gains and showing strong spending intentions, particularly in premium and experiential categories [3][37] - **Spending Intentions**: The strongest spending intentions are noted in beauty and skincare (41%) and tourism (37%), reflecting a shift towards experiential and premium spending [51] - **Investment Gains**: 64-74% of mid- to high-income consumers reported increased investment returns, with many planning to reinvest or spend on travel, health services, and consumer electronics [40][41] Stock Implications - **Company Ratings**: - Upgrades to Neutral for Fenjiu due to expected benefits from non-business baijiu consumption - Buy ratings maintained for companies like MIXUE, Guming, China Foods, CR Beer, and YUM China, among others [4] - **Dividend Payouts**: Premium baijiu companies are noted for their >75% dividend payout, which is expected to protect share prices from downside risks [4] Structural Growth Opportunities - **Emerging Themes**: Key investment themes for 2026E include changing consumer preferences, corporate restructuring, and industry consolidation, particularly in sectors like home appliances and mass-market consumption [14][50] - **Corporate Restructuring**: Companies are expected to adapt their business models to align with changing consumer behaviors, which may lead to sustainable long-term earnings growth [4][50] Risks and Challenges - **Property Market Downturn**: The ongoing downturn in the property market is anticipated to weigh on household balance sheets, potentially impacting consumer spending [13][48] - **Policy Support**: The pace of recovery is contingent on stabilizing the property market and effective policy implementation to boost consumption [13][48] Conclusion - The China consumer sector is poised for a recovery, driven by improving consumer confidence and shifting spending patterns. However, the recovery will be uneven across different income groups and city tiers, necessitating a nuanced investment approach to capture emerging opportunities while being mindful of potential risks associated with the property market downturn.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that Budweiser APAC's profitability in the fourth quarter of last year was pressured by concentrated cost recognition and high base effects, but most negative impacts have been absorbed, and a demand turning point is yet to be confirmed [1] - The report states that the EBITDA forecasts for Budweiser APAC for 2025 and 2026 have been lowered by approximately 5% [1] - The rating for Budweiser APAC is maintained at "Neutral," with a target price set at HKD 7.5 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley forecasts that Budweiser APAC (01876) will see natural sales and EBITDA decline by 6.4% and 8.6% respectively in 2025, followed by average annual growth of 4% and 6% in 2026-2027 [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - The target price for Budweiser APAC has been lowered from HKD 8.5 to HKD 7.9, maintaining a "neutral" rating [1] - The expected dividend yield for the company is projected to reach 5.7%, providing downside support for its stock price [1] Group 2: Recent Performance - The company is anticipated to report a 5.4% year-on-year decline in natural revenue and a 10.5% drop in EBITDA for the fourth quarter of last year, compared to declines of 8.4% and 6.9% in the third quarter [1] - Budweiser APAC's business in China remains weak, while growth in South Korea has slowed due to a high base, and strong growth in India has not significantly improved overall group performance [1] Group 3: Marketing and Sales Strategy - Despite increasing advertising and promotional investments in home channels, sales and profits in China continue to be under pressure [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley forecasts that Budweiser APAC (01876) will experience a decline in natural sales and EBITDA by 6.4% and 8.6% respectively in 2025, followed by annual growth of 4% and 6% from 2026 to 2027 [1] Financial Projections - The target price for Budweiser APAC has been lowered from HKD 8.5 to HKD 7.9, while maintaining a "neutral" rating [1] - The expected dividend yield for the company is projected to reach 5.7%, providing downside support for its stock price [1] Recent Performance - For the fourth quarter of the previous year, Budweiser APAC's natural revenue is expected to decline by 5.4% year-on-year, with EBITDA dropping by 10.5%, compared to declines of 8.4% and 6.9% in the third quarter [1] Regional Business Insights - The company's business in China continues to show weakness, while growth in South Korea has slowed due to a high comparison base; strong growth in India has not been sufficient to boost overall group performance [1] - Despite increased advertising and promotional investments in home channels, sales and profits in China remain under pressure [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the news highlights the short-selling ratios and amounts for various companies, indicating significant market activity and investor sentiment towards these stocks [1][2][3] Group 2 - The top three companies by short-selling ratio are Anta Sports-R (82020) and Li Ning-R (82331) at 100.00%, and Tencent Holdings-R (80700) at 90.68% [1][2] - The highest short-selling amounts are recorded for Alibaba-W (09988) at 3.199 billion, Meituan-W (03690) at 1.835 billion, and Xiaomi Group-W (01810) at 1.518 billion [1][3] - Tencent Holdings-R (80700) has the highest deviation value at 45.50%, followed by Beike-W (02423) at 40.51% and China National Offshore Oil-R (80883) at 40.26% [1][3]

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年12月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 百威亞太控股有限公司 呈交日期: 2026年1月6日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01876 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 18,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.00001 USD | | 180,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | USD | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 18,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.00001 USD | | 180,000 | 本月底法定/註冊股本總額： USD 180,000 ...