Core Viewpoint - UBS has slightly reduced the target price for Budweiser APAC (01876) from HKD 8.75 to HKD 8.6 while maintaining a "Buy" rating, citing lower-than-expected revenue and normalized EBITDA forecasts for 2025 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Budweiser APAC's revenue and normalized EBITDA for 2025 are projected to decline by 6.1% and 9.8% year-on-year, reaching USD 5.764 billion and USD 1.588 billion, respectively, which is below market expectations [1] - For Q4 2025, revenue and normalized EBITDA are expected to decrease by 4.2% and 24.7% year-on-year, amounting to USD 1.073 billion and USD 167 million, respectively [1] - The company's normalized EBITDA margin contracted by 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in gross margin and an increase in the ratio of selling, general, and administrative expenses (SG&A) [1] Group 2: Net Profit and Non-Recurring Items - The net profit for the period was USD 489 million, impacted by a non-recurring item related to a customs audit claim and tax issues in South Korea, which is considered a one-time factor [1] Group 3: Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2026 to 2028 have been increased by 2% to 3%, reflecting expectations of RMB appreciation; however, a slowdown in sales recovery in the Chinese market is anticipated, potentially delaying until the second half of 2026 [1] - EBITDA forecasts for 2026 to 2028 have been reduced by 6% to 7% to account for operational deleveraging and increased business investments, leading to a decrease in EBITDA margin by 2.5 to 2.8 percentage points [1]

Group 1 - UBS has slightly reduced the target price for Budweiser APAC (01876) from HKD 8.75 to HKD 8.6 while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - Budweiser APAC's revenue and normalized EBITDA for 2025 are expected to decline by 6.1% and 9.8% year-on-year, reaching USD 5.764 billion and USD 1.588 billion, respectively, which is below market expectations [1] - For Q4 2025, revenue and normalized EBITDA are projected to decrease by 4.2% and 24.7% year-on-year, amounting to USD 1.073 billion and USD 0.167 billion [1] Group 2 - The company's normalized EBITDA margin is expected to contract by 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in gross margin and an increase in the ratio of selling, general, and administrative expenses (SG&A) [1] - The net profit for the period is reported at USD 489 million, influenced by a one-time item related to a customs audit claim and tax issues in South Korea [1] - UBS has raised its revenue forecasts for Budweiser from 2026 to 2028 by 2% to 3%, mainly reflecting expectations of RMB appreciation, although a recovery in the Chinese market is anticipated to slow down and may be delayed until the second half of 2026 [1] Group 3 - EBITDA forecasts for 2026 to 2028 have been lowered by 6% to 7% to account for operational deleveraging and increased business investments, resulting in a reduction of EBITDA margin by 2.5 to 2.8 percentage points [1]

Core Insights - Budweiser APAC achieved a total revenue of $5.764 billion in 2025, with an organic year-on-year decline of 6.1% [1] - The normalized EBITDA for 2025 was $1.588 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 9.8% [1] - In Q4 2025, revenue reached $1.073 billion, with an organic year-on-year decline of 4.2% [1] Revenue and EBITDA Analysis - For the full year 2025, the company reported a sales volume of 7.9658 million kiloliters, down 6.0% year-on-year, while Q4 sales volume was 1.3518 million kiloliters, down 0.7% [1] - The revenue per hectoliter for the full year 2025 decreased by 0.2%, and for Q4, it decreased by 3.5% [1] - The gross margin for 2025 was 50.1%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points year-on-year, while the normalized EBITDA margin was 27.6%, a decrease of 1.13 percentage points year-on-year [1] Regional Performance - In the Western Asia-Pacific region, Q4 2025 sales volume showed a slight organic growth of 0.1%, but revenue and revenue per hectoliter declined by 5.6% and 5.7% respectively, with normalized EBITDA down 40.0% [2] - India emerged as a growth highlight, with high-end and super high-end products accounting for over two-thirds of total revenue and contributing over 20% to revenue growth [2] - In the Eastern Asia-Pacific region, Q4 2025 revenue showed a slight organic decline of 0.6%, with sales volume down 3.7% but revenue per hectoliter up 3.2% [2] China Market Focus - The Chinese market faced continued pressure, with Q4 2025 sales volume down 3.9% due to weak on-premise channels and delayed Lunar New Year shipments [3] - The company plans to increase investment in channel and product mix expansion, with Q4 2025 revenue down 11.4% year-on-year [3] - The company aims to revitalize its market share in China as a core focus for 2026, with strategies including enhancing high-end and digital channel penetration [4] Future Strategies and Forecasts - For 2026, the company will increase commercial investment as a percentage of net revenue, focusing on core and emerging channels [4] - The profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been revised down to $621 million and $680 million respectively, reflecting a decrease of 9% and 7% [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 21x for 2026, 20x for 2027, and 18x for 2028, with a maintained "buy" rating based on competitive advantages in high-end and super high-end segments [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company faces pressure in Q4 2025 with a 4.2% year-on-year decline in revenue, primarily due to a downturn in the Chinese market, despite strong double-digit growth in India [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Q4 2025 adjusted EBITDA decreased by 24.7%, with a net loss of approximately $12 million, slightly better than expectations [1] - For the full year, revenue and adjusted EBITDA fell by 6.1% and 9.8% respectively, reaching $5.76 billion and $1.59 billion, with the adjusted EBITDA margin declining by 1.1 percentage points to 27.6% [1] - In the Asia-Pacific West region, revenue declined by 5.6% in Q4, with price pressure (down 5.7% year-on-year) exceeding volume growth (up 0.1%) [2] Group 2: Market Analysis - The Chinese market saw a significant revenue decline of 11.4% in Q4, with volume and price down by 3.9% and 7.7% respectively, largely due to increased support for distributors and brand activation investments [2] - The Indian market continued to gain market share, achieving strong double-digit revenue growth in Q4, driven by high-end and super high-end product combinations [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - Management aims to reignite growth in the Chinese market by focusing on expanding non-ready-to-drink channels, optimizing the product mix, and increasing digital investments [1] - Despite a slow recovery in the Chinese market, there is potential for marginal improvement in 2026 due to a low base effect [3] - The company has slightly lowered its revenue forecasts for 2026-2027 by 2% and adjusted EBITDA/net profit forecasts by 1% and 4-5% respectively, while maintaining a target price of HKD 8.90 based on a 20x target P/E ratio for 2026 [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC (01876.HK) with a target price of HKD 10 [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of USD 5.76 billion and normalized EBITDA of USD 1.59 billion for the year 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.1% and 9.8% respectively. The normalized net profit attributable to shareholders was USD 670 million, down 14.4% year-on-year. For Q4 alone, revenue and normalized EBITDA were USD 1.07 billion and USD 170 million, with a year-on-year decline of 4.2% and 24.7% respectively [1][5]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of USD 750 million, maintaining the same level as the previous year, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 153.4% [1][5]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Growth Rates**: - Total revenue for 2025 was USD 5,764 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of -7.7%. Projections for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are USD 5,921 million, USD 6,033 million, and USD 6,150 million respectively, with expected growth rates of 2.7%, 1.9%, and 1.9% [1][10]. - **Net Profit and Growth Rates**: - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 was USD 489 million, down 32.6% year-on-year. Projections for the following years are USD 533 million, USD 563 million, and USD 580 million, with growth rates of 9.0%, 5.7%, and 3.0% respectively [1][10]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - The EPS for 2025 is projected to be USD 0.04 for the years 2026 to 2028, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio decreasing from 27 in 2025 to 23 in 2028 [1][10]. - **Dividend and Yield**: - The company maintains a high dividend strategy with a dividend yield of approximately 5.7% based on the current dividend payout [1][5]. Market Performance - The report highlights that the company faced challenges in the Chinese market, with a year-on-year revenue decline of 11.4% in Q4 due to weak demand in core on-premise channels. However, the Indian market showed strong growth, contributing significantly to overall revenue [5][6].

Group 1: Financial Data and Trends - As of the end of January 2026, the total social financing scale was 449.11 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.2% [1] - The broad money supply (M2) increased by 9.0% year-on-year, significantly outpacing the nominal GDP growth, supporting stable growth in the real economy [1] - In January, resident deposits decreased by 3.39 trillion yuan year-on-year, while non-bank financial institutions saw an increase of 2.56 trillion yuan in deposits [1] Group 2: Robotics Rental Industry - The Chinese robot rental platform, Qingtian Rental, reported over 1,000 orders received for the Spring Festival period, with total orders expected to exceed 5,000, representing an 80% increase in overall GMV [2] - Qingtian Rental is implementing a "City Partner Strategy" to address delivery challenges due to explosive growth and is maintaining a monthly financing rhythm to adapt to market changes [2] Group 3: Beer Industry Performance - Anheuser-Busch InBev's Budweiser Asia and Heineken both reported declines in sales revenue, net profit, and volume for 2025, indicating a common trend of underperformance [3][4] - Heineken's 2025 net revenue was 28.75 billion euros (approximately 235.53 billion yuan), with a net profit of 1.88 billion euros (approximately 15.44 billion yuan), both showing consecutive declines [3] - Budweiser Asia's revenue for 2025 was 5.764 billion USD (approximately 40.31 billion yuan), down about 11.59% year-on-year, with a net profit of approximately 489 million USD (about 3.42 billion yuan), marking a 35.47% decline [3] Group 4: Real Estate Market - In January, the second-hand residential sales prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.5% month-on-month, with specific declines in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [9] - The price adjustments in the second-hand housing market have been ongoing for over four years, with recent data indicating a narrowing of the decline, suggesting improved price-performance ratios for buyers [9] - Notably, cities like Yangzhou and Zhanjiang experienced a month-on-month increase in second-hand residential prices in January [9] Group 5: Gold Market Regulation - Shenzhen's financial management authorities issued a set of ten prohibitive measures to regulate gold market activities, following previous incidents and market volatility [11] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange also announced adjustments to margin requirements and trading limits for gold and silver contracts to manage risks during the Spring Festival [11] - As of February 13, the spot gold price fluctuated between 4,900 and 5,000 USD per ounce, down approximately 10% from a previous high of 5,595 USD [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC (01876.HK) with a target price of HKD 10 [1]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of USD 5.76 billion and normalized EBITDA of USD 1.59 billion for the year 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.1% and 9.8% respectively. The normalized net profit attributable to shareholders was USD 670 million, down 14.4% year-on-year [1]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of USD 750 million, maintaining a high payout ratio of 153.4% [1]. - The report highlights that the company is undergoing operational adjustments while maintaining a strong dividend policy, which is expected to attract investors [1]. Financial Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: - Total revenue for 2025 was USD 5,764 million, with a projected growth of 2.7% in 2026 and 1.9% in both 2027 and 2028 [1]. - Normalized net profit is expected to recover to USD 533 million in 2026, with further growth to USD 563 million in 2027 and USD 580 million in 2028, after a decline of 32.6% in 2025 [1]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - EPS is projected to remain stable at USD 0.04 from 2025 to 2028 [1]. - **Valuation Ratios**: - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 27 in 2025 to 23 by 2028, while the price-to-book (P/B) ratio is projected to decline from 1.3 to 1.1 over the same period [1]. Market Performance - The report notes that the company faced challenges in the Chinese market, with a year-on-year revenue decline of 11.4% in Q4 2025, primarily due to weak demand in core on-premise channels [5]. - In contrast, the Indian market showed strong growth, contributing over two-thirds of the revenue with a year-on-year growth of over 20% in the P&SP product segment [5]. - The report anticipates a recovery in the Chinese market in 2026, with ongoing efforts to enhance distribution channels and focus on premium products [5].

Core Viewpoint - Budweiser is facing unprecedented growth pressure in the Chinese market, with declining sales and profits reported in its latest earnings report [1][2]. Financial Performance - Budweiser APAC reported a revenue of $5.764 billion (approximately 39.787 billion RMB) for 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 6.1% [1]. - Beer sales reached 7.966 billion liters, down 6.0% year-on-year [1]. - The profit attributable to equity holders was $489 million (approximately 3.375 billion RMB), a significant decline of 32.6%, marking a low point in net profit over recent years [1]. Market Challenges - The company has experienced a continuous decline in key metrics, with beer sales and revenue in China dropping by 8.6% and 11.3% respectively in 2025 [2]. - The decline is attributed to a slowdown in high-end dining and entertainment channels, which have traditionally been strong for Budweiser [2]. - The company has been slow to adapt to new retail and e-commerce channels, with a lower proportion of non-on-premise sales compared to competitors [2]. Strategic Initiatives - Budweiser is increasing investments in non-on-premise channels and enhancing its sales team capabilities, particularly in Guangdong [2]. - The company is also focusing on marketing its core sub-brands, including new endorsements for Harbin Beer to strengthen connections with younger consumers [2]. Cost Pressures - Increased investments to support distributors and brand promotion in emerging channels have created additional profit pressures for Budweiser [3]. - The company plans to maintain high-intensity marketing and channel investments in 2026, coinciding with the World Cup events [3]. Industry Context - The domestic beer industry is entering a contraction phase, with local brands accelerating their premiumization and channel transformation, increasing pressure on international giants like Budweiser [3][4]. - Competitors such as Yanjing Beer and Chongqing Beer are forecasting significant profit growth, with Yanjing expected to achieve a net profit of 1.584 billion to 1.742 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 50%-65% [3][4]. Leadership Focus - CEO Cheng Yanjun has emphasized the need to reignite growth and rebuild market share in China as a primary task [4].

大华继显发布研报称，百威亚太(01876)2025年第四季收入录10.73亿美元，同比下跌4%，主要因销量及 平均售价分别跌0.7%及4%。正常化EBITDA为1.67亿美元，同比下跌25%，相应利润率为15.6%，同比 收窄425个基点。中国市场方面，2025年第四季有改善迹象，销量及市场占有率回稳。展望2026年，公 司目标重拾增长动力，商业投资占净收入的比例有上行空间，而利润率改善则预期是长期目标。该行维 持"买入"评级及目标价9.9港元。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，大华继显发布研报称，百威亚太(01876)2025年第四季收入录10.73亿美元，同比下 跌4%，主要因销量及平均售价分别跌0.7%及4%。正常化EBITDA为1.67亿美元，同比下跌25%，相应利 润率为15.6%，同比收窄425个基点。中国市场方面，2025年第四季有改善迹象，销量及市场占有率回 稳。展望2026年，公司目标重拾增长动力，商业投资占净收入的比例有上行空间，而利润率改善则预期 是长期目标。该行维持"买入"评级及目标价9.9港元。 ...