Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the liquor sector, indicating a bottoming out phase with potential for recovery in the future [2]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is experiencing a significant decline in sales, with an expected drop of over 20% in overall sales volume. However, there are signs of month-on-month improvement, and the decline is narrowing [5][9]. - Major liquor companies like Moutai and Wuliangye are showing strong recovery in payment collection, with over 80% collection rates, while regional brands are performing adequately [5][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-quality liquor brands that are likely to recover faster, such as Moutai and Fenjiu, while also highlighting the need to monitor companies undergoing significant changes [6][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Liquor Sector: Q3 Accelerated Decline and Bottoming Out - The liquor sector is facing a 20%+ decline in sales due to external demand shocks, with a gradual improvement expected in the coming months [5][9]. - High-end liquor brands are expected to show resilience, with Moutai projected to achieve a 3% revenue growth in Q3, while Wuliangye is expected to see a 20% revenue decline [10][11]. - The report indicates that companies are adjusting their strategies to reduce channel pressure and improve operational efficiency [9][10]. 2. Consumer Goods Sector: Overall Demand Weakness, Structural Resilience - The consumer goods sector is experiencing overall weak demand, but segments like snacks and beverages are showing higher resilience [17][24]. - The report notes that while the demand for dairy and beer remains stable, the restaurant supply chain is still under pressure [17][24]. - Raw material prices are generally declining, which may provide some cost relief to companies in the sector [24][25]. 3. Investment Recommendations: Focus on Liquor Bottoming Catalysts and Selective Consumer Goods Trends - The report suggests focusing on liquor companies that are at the bottom of their cycles, with Moutai and Fenjiu being primary recommendations [6][9]. - For consumer goods, the report highlights the potential of snack and beverage companies, recommending brands that are well-positioned to benefit from current trends [6][17].

Core Viewpoint - Budweiser APAC (01876.HK) announced that its board committee will hold a meeting on October 29, 2025, to consider and approve the unaudited performance announcement for the nine months ending September 30, 2025 [1] Group 1 - The company expects to release the unaudited performance announcement on October 30, 2025, at 7:00 AM Hong Kong time or around that time [1]

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性 或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部份內容而產生或因倚 賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 朱隽清 （股份代號：1876） 香港，2025年10月17日 批准截至2025年9月30日止九個月未經審核業績的 董事會委員會會議日期 於本公告日期，本公司董事會包括聯席主席兼執行董事程衍俊先生、聯席主席兼 非執行董事鄧明瀟先生、非執行董事Nelson Jamel先生及Ricardo Tadeu先生，以 及獨立非執行董事郭鵬先生、楊敏德女士及曾璟璇女士（John Blood先生、David Almeida先生及Katherine Barrett女士為程衍俊先生、鄧明瀟先生、Nelson Jamel先 生及Ricardo Tadeu先生各自的替任董事）。 百威亞太控股有限公司（「本公司」）宣佈，本公司董事會（「董事會」）委員會將於 2025年10月29日（星期三）（交易時段後）舉行會議，以考慮及批准截至2025年9月 30日止九個月的未經審核業績公告。 本公司預期將於2025年10月30日（星期四）上午七 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to experience a double-digit decline in earnings year-on-year for Q3 2025, indicating a continued adjustment phase in its operations [1] Group 1: Earnings Forecast - Q3 2025 earnings are projected to decline by double digits year-on-year due to slow recovery in the Chinese market and adjustments in business strategies [1] - The Eastern China region is anticipated to see a double-digit decline in revenue, while the Indian market continues its growth trend [1] - The Western Korean market may experience a slight revenue decline due to weak on-premise channels and pricing pressures [1] Group 2: Market Performance - The overall performance in overseas markets is better than in the domestic market, with the Korean market maintaining stability supported by pricing advantages and brand strength [2] - In the Korean market, a slight year-on-year decline in sales is expected, but performance is likely to remain better than the industry average [2] - The Indian market continues to show a robust growth trend, benefiting from the structural shift towards high-end products and non-on-premise channels [2] Group 3: Profitability and Valuation - Due to slower-than-expected recovery in the Chinese market, EBITDA forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been reduced by 3.1% to $1.627 billion and $1.715 billion, respectively [2] - The target price is maintained at HKD 9.8, corresponding to 8.6x and 8.2x EV/EBITDA for 2025 and 2026, with the current stock price reflecting 7.1x and 6.7x EV/EBITDA multiples [2] - The current stock price presents a 21.3% upside potential compared to the target price, maintaining an outperform rating [2]

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年9月30日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 百威亞太控股有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年10月8日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01876 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 18,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.00001 USD | | 180,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | USD | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 18,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.00001 USD | | 180,000 | 本月底法定/註冊股本總額： USD 180,000 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International indicates a downward revision of Budweiser APAC's (01876) EBITDA and net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 by 5-7% and 5-9% respectively, reflecting recent weak performance. The target price is adjusted to HKD 9.50 while maintaining a "Buy" rating based on an unchanged 20x target P/E for 2026 [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance Expectations - The company is expected to face short-term pressure on its Q3 performance, with a projected revenue decline of 6.4% year-on-year. Adjusted EBITDA is anticipated to decrease by 14.4%, and adjusted net profit is forecasted at USD 190 million, down 14.6% year-on-year. The core pressure is attributed to weak performance in the on-premise channel in mainland China, partially offset by strong growth in the Indian market and price increases in South Korea [2]. - The stock price is believed to have already factored in the short-term sales pressure, with expectations of marginal improvement in Q4 and a dividend yield exceeding 5% providing support for the stock price [2]. Group 2: Regional Performance Insights - In the Asia-Pacific West region, the company is expected to see a high single-digit year-on-year revenue decline in Q3, with a deeper sequential decline. Sales volume and average price are projected to decrease significantly. Factors such as the impact of the alcohol ban and price wars on delivery platforms are contributing to the weak recovery in the on-premise channel in mainland China [3]. - The company has actively adjusted inventory to alleviate pressure on distributors, maintaining good inventory management to support future recovery, with expectations of marginal recovery in Q4. The Indian market is expected to continue its growth momentum from the first half of the year, contributing to EBITDA margin improvement [3]. - In the Asia-Pacific East region, performance is expected to be relatively stable, with slight revenue decline due to minor negative currency impacts. Sales volume is projected to decrease slightly, while average price is expected to grow modestly, with adjusted EBITDA anticipated to see slight growth. Brand and channel optimization, along with recent price increases, are expected to support average price performance [4].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International indicates a downward revision of Budweiser APAC's (01876) EBITDA and net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 by 5-7% and 5-9% respectively, reflecting recent weak performance. The target price is adjusted to HKD 9.50 while maintaining a buy rating [1] Group 1: Financial Performance Expectations - The company is expected to face short-term pressure on its Q3 performance, with a projected revenue decline of 6.4% year-on-year. Adjusted EBITDA is anticipated to decrease by 14.4%, and adjusted net profit is expected to be USD 190 million, down 14.6% year-on-year [2] - The core pressure is attributed to weak performance in the ready-to-drink channel in mainland China, partially offset by strong growth in the Indian market, price increases in the Korean market, and cost improvements. The current stock price reflects short-term sales pressure, and a dividend yield exceeding 5% is expected to support the stock price [2] Group 2: Regional Performance Insights - In the Asia Pacific West region, the ready-to-drink channel in mainland China is under pressure due to factors such as alcohol bans and price wars on delivery platforms. The company is expected to see a high single-digit year-on-year revenue decline in this region, with significant declines in both volume and average price. Despite a trend towards premiumization in non-ready-to-drink channels, adverse changes in channel mix and promotional activities are expected to negatively impact average prices [3] - The company has proactively adjusted inventory to alleviate pressure on distributors, and inventory management is reported to be good, providing support for future recovery. A marginal recovery is anticipated in Q4, while the Indian market is expected to continue its growth momentum from the first half of the year, contributing to improved EBITDA margins [3] - In the Asia Pacific East region, performance is expected to be relatively stable, with slight revenue declines influenced by exchange rates. Volume is projected to decrease in low single digits, while average prices are expected to grow in mid-single digits, leading to a slight increase in adjusted EBITDA. Brand and channel optimization, along with recent price increases, are expected to support average price performance [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International maintains a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC (1876) with a target price adjusted to HKD 9.50, indicating that the current stock price reflects short-term sales pressures, with potential marginal improvement in Q4 and a supporting dividend yield exceeding 5% [1] Financial Performance - The company is expected to announce its Q3 2025 results on October 30, with projected group revenue declining by 6.4% year-on-year [1] - Adjusted EBITDA is anticipated to decrease by 14.4% year-on-year, while adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted at USD 190 million, representing a 14.6% decline year-on-year [1] Market Dynamics - Core pressures are identified in the mainland China market, where the ready-to-drink channel remains weak, although this is partially offset by strong growth in the Indian market, price increases in the Korean market, and cost improvements [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International maintains a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC (01876) with a target price adjusted to HKD 9.50, citing that the current stock price reflects short-term sales pressure, with potential marginal improvement in Q4 and a supporting dividend yield exceeding 5% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance Expectations - The company is expected to report a 6.4% year-on-year decline in group revenue for Q3 2025, indicating a slow overall recovery; adjusted EBITDA is projected to decrease by 14.4%, and adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders is anticipated to be USD 190 million, down 14.6% year-on-year [1] - The core pressure on performance is attributed to a weak on-premise channel in mainland China, partially offset by strong growth in the Indian market, price increases in the Korean market, and cost improvements [1][2] Group 2: Regional Market Analysis - In the Asia Pacific West region, the on-premise channel in mainland China is under pressure due to factors such as alcohol bans and price wars on delivery platforms, leading to a soft recovery in the restaurant channel; inventory reduction efforts negatively impacted sales [2] - The Asia Pacific East region, particularly South Korea, is expected to perform relatively well with slight revenue declines; unit sales are projected to decrease in low single digits, while average prices are expected to grow in mid-single digits, with adjusted EBITDA likely to see slight growth [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International maintains a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC (01876) but lowers the target price to HKD 9.50, citing that the current stock price reflects short-term sales pressure, with potential marginal improvement in Q4 and a supporting dividend yield exceeding 5% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance Expectations - The company is expected to report a 6.4% year-on-year decline in group revenue for Q3 2025, with adjusted EBITDA anticipated to decrease by 14.4% and adjusted net profit projected at USD 190 million, down 14.6% year-on-year [1] - The core pressure on performance is attributed to the soft on-premise channel in mainland China, partially offset by strong growth in the Indian market, price increases in the Korean market, and cost improvements [1] Group 2: Regional Performance Insights - In the Asia-Pacific West region, particularly mainland China, the on-premise channel is under pressure due to factors such as alcohol bans and price wars on delivery platforms, leading to a high single-digit year-on-year revenue decline and a deeper sequential decline in Q3 [1] - The company has actively adjusted inventory to alleviate pressure on distributors, maintaining good inventory management to support future recovery, with expectations of marginal recovery in Q4 [1] - In the Asia-Pacific East region, the performance is expected to be relatively stable, with slight revenue decline impacted by exchange rates, low single-digit volume decline, and mid-single-digit average price growth, alongside a slight increase in adjusted EBITDA [2]