跨行业视角下的 AI 产业链：拆解玻纤铜箔树脂 PCB 的景 气阶梯 20250819 摘要 AI PCB 市场规模预计在 2026 年超过 100 亿美元，2027 年达到 130 亿美元以上，主要驱动力来自 ASIC 和交换机需求的爆发，以及英伟达 Rubin 系列产品的应用。 高速覆铜板方面，英伟达机柜及 ASIC 方案主要使用马 8 覆铜板，下一 代马 9 覆铜板将在 1.6T 交换机中量产，单张价值量增长 3 倍以上，生 益科技和南亚新材有望扩大市场份额。 深南电路、沪电股份在 ASIC 和交换机 PCB 市场份额较大，鹏鼎控股在 mSAP 技术实力方面突出，生益科技和南亚新材在高速覆铜板领域具有 优势，建滔积层板在普通覆铜板涨价弹性方面表现最佳。 普通覆铜板（FR4）价格在 3 月至 5 月上涨后，6 月因需求下降回落，8 月初二线企业发出涨价函，预计未来价格上涨持续性较乐观，因龙头企 业产能转向高速板及 AI PCB 需求增强。 电子布市场从传统玻纤布向石英布过渡，石英布应用于高频高速领域， 中一科技的二代石英电子布 DF 值已达 3%-5%，基本满足 M9 级别需求， 计划到 2030 年实现 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the copper-clad laminate industry is experiencing a price increase due to strong demand and high raw material costs, with a shift towards a more sustainable pricing model expected in the coming years [1] Group 2 - On August 15, Jiantao Laminates announced a price increase of 10 yuan per sheet, citing cost pressures [1] - The direct reason for the price increase in the copper-clad laminate industry is the relatively strong demand, high operating rates, and improved profitability of downstream customers [1] - The report suggests that the pricing logic in the industry is transitioning from a corrective price increase in the first half of 2024 and 2025 to a release of profit potential driven by supply-demand dynamics and industry expansion [1] - There is an optimistic outlook for leading manufacturers regarding profit improvement opportunities due to these market conditions [1]

Market Overview - Hong Kong stock market opened lower and closed down 0.98% due to concerns over the upcoming US-Russia summit, while A-shares surged, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to around 3700 points and a trading volume exceeding 2.2 trillion yuan, marking the 29th trading day in A-share history to surpass 2 trillion yuan [1][5] - The anticipated US-Russia summit is expected to yield limited results, with no plans for signed agreements, and discussions likely to focus on underlying strategies rather than public outcomes [2][3] Sector Focus - The banking sector in Hong Kong is underperforming, primarily due to a perceived lack of value compared to insurance stocks, which are increasingly favored by institutional investors [3] - The sentiment in the market remains positive, with over ten stocks in the Hong Kong Stock Connect rising more than 10%, particularly in the robotics sector, driven by upcoming events like the World Humanoid Robot Games [4] - The semiconductor and AI-related sectors are experiencing significant growth, with companies like Hongteng Precision rising over 33% due to their involvement in NVIDIA's supply chain [5] Individual Company Highlights - Xiexin Technology has entered a strategic partnership with Taibao Asset Management, aiming to explore tokenization solutions for real-world assets and develop compliant digital asset products [10][12] - The solar industry is showing signs of recovery, with significant price increases in photovoltaic glass and a reduction in production, indicating a potential shift towards better market conditions [7][8] - GCL-Poly Energy has secured a procurement contract for silicon materials worth up to 450 million yuan, reflecting the ongoing demand and price increases in the solar component market [10][11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant stock price increase of Jiantao Laminated Board, which rose by 20.53% to 13.56 HKD per share, with a trading volume of 4.34 billion HKD on August 15 [1] - Jiantao Laminated Board Holdings Limited specializes in the production of copper-clad laminates, including epoxy glass fiber, paper, and CEM laminates, with over 20 factories located in South and East China [1] - According to a research report by Prismark Partners LLC, the company held a 14.3% market share in the global copper-clad laminate market in 2010, maintaining the top position in the industry for six consecutive years [1] Group 2 - As of the 2024 annual report, Jiantao Laminated Board reported total revenue of 17.17 billion HKD and a net profit of 1.228 billion HKD [2] - The company is scheduled to disclose its mid-year report for the fiscal year 2025 on August 25 [2]

Group 1 - The demand for high-end PCBs, such as AI servers and switches, is surging, driven by the release of Nvidia's GB200 and ASIC chips, which further stimulates industry growth [1] - The global AI server PCB market is expected to reach 19 billion yuan by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 30% from 2023 to 2028 [1] - Domestic leading manufacturers, such as Shenyin Technology and Huitian Technology, are capturing market share due to their technological advantages, with some companies achieving capacity utilization rates exceeding 95% [1] Group 2 - Companies like Shenyin Electronics and Guanghua Technology are projected to see significant profit increases, with Shenyin Electronics' net profit expected to rise by 432%-471% year-on-year [2] - The demand for high-end PCBs is rapidly increasing due to AI computing power, leading to a notable supply-demand gap in AI PCBs this year [2] - CITIC Securities forecasts that the supply-demand ratio for global AI PCBs will be between 80% and 103% by 2026, indicating a tight supply situation [2] Group 3 - Kinsus Interconnect Technology's performance is expected to benefit from the recovery in copper-clad laminate demand, with price increases supporting its performance [3] - Kinsus Group is focusing on the entire PCB industry chain, developing a research center for copper-clad laminates and successfully creating various high-frequency and high-speed products for AI server GPU motherboards [3]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - As of July 3, a total of 120 stocks reached their 52-week highs, indicating a strong market performance with notable leaders in the list [1]. Group 1: Top Performers - The top three stocks with the highest increase rates are: - 富誉控股 (Fuyou Holdings) at 90.76%, closing at 0.435 with a peak of 0.475 [1] - 信义能源 (Xinyi Energy) at 65.00%, closing at 1.200 with a peak of 1.980 [1] - 中国三三传媒 (China San San Media) at 42.86%, closing at 1.710 with a peak of 1.900 [1] Group 2: Additional Notable Stocks - Other notable stocks include: - ITE HOLDINGS at 34.21% increase, closing at 0.047 with a peak of 0.051 [1] - 星凯控股 (Xingkai Holdings) at 30.00%, closing at 0.480 with a peak of 0.650 [1] - 北京北辰实业股份 (Beijing Beichen Industrial) at 26.47%, closing at 0.940 with a peak of 1.290 [1] Group 3: Overall Market Trends - The overall trend shows a significant number of stocks achieving new highs, reflecting positive investor sentiment and market conditions [1].

Financial Performance - The Group's revenue increased by 11% to HK$18,541.0 million in FY2024 compared to HK$16,750.2 million in FY2023[11]. - Underlying net profit attributable to owners rose by 36% to HK$1,349.0 million, up from HK$991.0 million in the previous year[11]. - Reported net profit increased by 46% to HK$1,326.1 million from HK$907.4 million in FY2023[11]. - EBITDA grew by 21% to HK$2,962.7 million, compared to HK$2,450.3 million in FY2023[11]. - The full-year dividend per share was proposed at HK$62.0 cents, a significant increase of 288% from HK$16.0 cents in FY2023[11]. - The net asset value per share increased by 3% to HK$4.92 from HK$4.79[11]. - The net gearing ratio improved to 9% from 16% in the previous year[11]. - The Group's total revenue increased by 11% year-on-year to HK$18,541.4 million, with a significant rise in net profit attributable to shareholders by 36% to HK$1,349.0 million after accounting for credit impairment provisions[29]. Divisional Performance - The Laminates Division experienced growth in both revenue and profits due to a vertically integrated value chain and broad client base[23]. - The Laminates Division's revenue increased by 11% to HK$18,304.5 million, driven by recovery in demand from the consumer electronics market and growth in air conditioning and photovoltaic panels[27]. - EBITDA for the Laminates Division rose by 26% to HK$3,023.0 million, aided by price increases in laminate products to offset rising copper costs[27]. - The Property Division's revenue decreased by 44% to HK$126.7 million, with EBITDA down 34% to HK$38.0 million, primarily focusing on rental income[28]. Investment and Capacity Expansion - The Group invested approximately HK$700 million in new capacity during the year, aiming for long-term stable returns for shareholders[32]. - The Group's laminate production capacity in Thailand is set to increase by 400,000 sheets per month, reaching a total capacity of 1 million sheets per month by the end of 2024, with further expansions planned to reach 1.8 million sheets per month[50]. - A new low-dielectric fiberglass yarn project in Qingyuan City, Guangdong Province, with an annual capacity of 500 tonnes, is under construction and expected to commence operations in the second half of 2025[50]. - The newly added 1,500-tonne monthly copper foil capacity in Lianzhou City, Guangdong Province, will be fully operational in 2025, enhancing the Group's cost efficiencies[50]. Market and Demand Trends - The electronics industry is entering a new growth phase driven by automotive electronics and AI sectors, leading to increased demand[23]. - The overall electronic market demand is strong, with significant growth in shipment volume in the first two months of 2025 compared to the same period last year[52]. - The demand for copper foil used in data centers and cloud computing has increased significantly, driving growth in the group's product offerings[52]. Environmental and Sustainability Initiatives - The group has invested approximately HK$600 million in distributed solar photovoltaic projects, expected to generate 130 million kWh of green electricity annually, saving HK$117 million in electricity costs[53]. - The group has reduced carbon dioxide emissions by 45,000 tons in 2024 through thermal energy recovery investments totaling HK$120 million[53]. - The Group is committed to environmental sustainability and complies with relevant environmental laws and regulations[103]. Corporate Governance and Management - The company has a strong board with members holding significant experience in finance, governance, and management across various sectors[72]. - The board is committed to providing independent oversight and strategic guidance to ensure sustainable growth and shareholder value[73]. - The Company has complied with the Corporate Governance Code throughout the year ended December 31, 2024[188]. Risks and Challenges - The Group faces intense competition in its industry, which may adversely affect its financial condition and business prospects if it fails to compete effectively[97]. - Management may encounter challenges related to upgrading or expanding facilities and training personnel, which could hinder expansion plans[96]. - The Group's ability to successfully implement its business strategy is contingent upon obtaining adequate funding for its expansion plans[95]. Shareholder Information - The interests held by KHL in the Company are approximately 44.03% as of December 31, 2024[187]. - KHL Group accounted for approximately 20% of the Group's total sales, making it the largest customer during the year[189]. - The proposed annual cap for the supply framework agreement with Hallgain for the years ending December 31, 2026, is HK$563 million, HK$580 million, and HK$597 million respectively[196].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from a rebound in performance in H1 2025, driven by both volume and price increases, while the sustainability of performance in H2 2025 needs to be monitored [4][5] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2026 has been revised down from HKD 27.0 billion and HKD 29.0 billion to HKD 19.8 billion and HKD 22.1 billion, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at HKD 30.3 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 48.3%, 11.8%, and 36.9% [4] - The current market capitalization corresponds to a PE ratio of 11.3, 10.2, and 7.4 for 2025-2027 [4] Financial Summary and Valuation Indicators - Revenue (million HKD): 2023A: 16,750, 2024A: 18,541, 2025E: 20,261, 2026E: 21,112, 2027E: 23,916, with year-on-year growth rates of -25.1%, 10.7%, 9.3%, 4.2%, and 13.3% respectively [7] - Net Profit (million HKD): 2023A: 907, 2024A: 1,326, 2025E: 1,977, 2026E: 2,210, 2027E: 3,027, with year-on-year growth rates of -64.5%, 45.5%, 48.3%, 11.8%, and 36.9% respectively [7] - Gross Margin (%): 2023A: 16.0, 2024A: 15.7, 2025E: 19.8, 2026E: 20.5, 2027E: 22.5 [7] - Net Margin (%): 2023A: 5.4, 2024A: 7.2, 2025E: 9.8, 2026E: 10.5, 2027E: 12.7 [7] - ROE (%): 2023A: 6.1, 2024A: 8.7, 2025E: 14.0, 2026E: 15.0, 2027E: 19.4 [7] - EPS (diluted/HKD): 2023A: 0.29, 2024A: 0.43, 2025E: 0.63, 2026E: 0.71, 2027E: 0.97 [7] - P/E (times): 2023A: 24.7, 2024A: 16.9, 2025E: 11.3, 2026E: 10.2, 2027E: 7.4 [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from a rebound in performance in H1 2025, driven by both volume and price increases, while the sustainability of performance in H2 2025 remains to be monitored [4][5] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2026 has been revised down from HKD 27.0 billion and HKD 29.0 billion to HKD 19.8 billion and HKD 22.1 billion respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at HKD 30.3 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 48.3%, 11.8%, and 36.9% [4] - The current market capitalization corresponds to a PE ratio of 11.3, 10.2, and 7.4 for 2025-2027 [4] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue (million HKD): 2023A: 16,750, 2024A: 18,541, 2025E: 20,261, 2026E: 21,112, 2027E: 23,916 with year-on-year growth rates of -25.1%, 10.7%, 9.3%, 4.2%, and 13.3% respectively [7] - Net Profit (million HKD): 2023A: 907, 2024A: 1,326, 2025E: 1,977, 2026E: 2,210, 2027E: 3,027 with year-on-year growth rates of -64.5%, 45.5%, 48.3%, 11.8%, and 36.9% respectively [7] - Gross Margin (%): 2023A: 16.0, 2024A: 15.7, 2025E: 19.8, 2026E: 20.5, 2027E: 22.5 [7] - Net Margin (%): 2023A: 5.4, 2024A: 7.2, 2025E: 9.8, 2026E: 10.5, 2027E: 12.7 [7] - ROE (%): 2023A: 6.1, 2024A: 8.7, 2025E: 14.0, 2026E: 15.0, 2027E: 19.4 [7] - EPS (diluted/HKD): 2023A: 0.29, 2024A: 0.43, 2025E: 0.63, 2026E: 0.71, 2027E: 0.97 [7] - P/E (times): 2023A: 24.7, 2024A: 16.9, 2025E: 11.3, 2026E: 10.2, 2027E: 7.4 [7]

Financial Performance - Revenue for the fiscal year 2024 reached HKD 18,541 million, an increase of 11% compared to HKD 16,750 million in fiscal year 2023[2] - EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization) rose to HKD 2,963 million, reflecting a 21% growth from HKD 2,450 million in the previous year[2] - Profit before tax increased by 38% to HKD 1,758 million, up from HKD 1,277 million in fiscal year 2023[2] - Basic earnings per share (EPS) improved by 36% to HKD 0.432, compared to HKD 0.318 in the prior year[2] - The company proposed a total dividend of HKD 0.620 per share, a significant increase of 288% from HKD 0.160 per share in the previous year[2] - Total comprehensive income for the year amounted to HKD 1,081 million, compared to HKD 666 million in the previous year, marking a substantial increase[5] - The company reported a pre-tax profit of HKD 1,735,367,000 for the year, compared to HKD 1,192,926,000 in the previous year, an increase of 45.6%[14] - Basic and diluted earnings per share rose to HKD 1,326,096,000 in 2024 from HKD 907,402,000 in 2023, marking an increase of approximately 46.2%[27] - The group reported a significant increase in pre-tax profit by 38% to HKD 1,758.3 million[36] Financial Position - Net debt ratio decreased to 9% from 16% year-on-year, indicating improved financial stability[2] - Total assets less current liabilities were HKD 17,346,712,000 in 2024, down from HKD 17,967,573,000 in 2023, a decrease of 3.4%[9] - The net asset value increased to HKD 15,369,889,000 in 2024 from HKD 14,975,237,000 in 2023, representing a growth of 2.6%[9] - The total equity attributable to the company’s shareholders increased to HKD 15,342,427,000 in 2024 from HKD 14,951,235,000 in 2023, reflecting a growth of 2.6%[9] - The group maintained a healthy financial position with a net debt ratio of 9%, down from 16%[36] - The group plans to distribute a final dividend of HKD 20.0 cents per share and a special final dividend of HKD 30.0 cents per share, pending shareholder approval[34] Revenue Breakdown - The sales of copper-clad laminates and upstream materials amounted to HKD 16,820,701,000, up from HKD 15,227,815,000, reflecting a growth of 10.5%[12] - Revenue from China increased to HKD 17,149,637,000 in 2024 from HKD 15,410,846,000 in 2023, representing a growth of approximately 11.3%[17] - The company’s total revenue from other Asian countries was HKD 1,151,361,000 in 2024, up from HKD 1,073,565,000 in 2023, reflecting a growth of approximately 7.2%[17] - The company’s total revenue from the Americas decreased slightly to HKD 120,391,000 in 2024 from HKD 127,474,000 in 2023, a decline of about 5.4%[17] Segment Performance - The segment performance for copper-clad laminates showed a profit of HKD 2,088,474,000, compared to HKD 1,516,358,000 in the previous year, indicating a growth of 37.7%[14] - The revenue from the copper-clad laminate segment increased by 11% to HKD 18.3045 billion, driven by recovering demand in traditional electronics and significant growth in air conditioning and optoelectronics[37] - The real estate segment's revenue decreased by 44% to HKD 12.67 million, with EBITDA declining by 34% to HKD 3.8 million[38] Costs and Expenses - The company’s financing costs decreased to HKD 255,172,000 in 2024 from HKD 273,694,000 in 2023, a reduction of 6.8%[14] - Income tax expenses increased to HKD 405,238,000 in 2024 from HKD 284,282,000 in 2023, reflecting a rise of about 42.5%[20] - The company’s depreciation expense for property, plant, and equipment was approximately HKD 933,200,000 in 2024, compared to HKD 886,100,000 in 2023, an increase of about 5.3%[19] Operational Efficiency - The inventory turnover period improved to 63 days from 71 days year-on-year, while trade receivables turnover decreased to 82 days from 86 days[40] - Trade receivables net amount reached HKD 3,617,182 thousand, up from HKD 3,101,157 thousand in the previous year[28] - Trade payables decreased slightly to HKD 775,711 thousand from HKD 792,963 thousand[30] - The average credit period for trade customers remains at 120 days, consistent with the previous year[29] Investments and Future Plans - The group invested approximately HKD 700 million in new production facilities during the review period[39] - The group has invested approximately HKD 600 million in solar photovoltaic power generation projects, expected to produce 130 million kWh of green electricity annually, saving 36,000 tons of standard coal and reducing CO2 emissions by 78,000 tons[41] - The group has invested about HKD 120 million in thermal energy recovery equipment, resulting in a reduction of 45,000 tons of CO2 emissions in 2024, equivalent to saving 18,000 tons of standard coal[41] - The group plans to increase copper foil production capacity in Thailand to 1 million sheets per month by the end of 2024, with further expansions to reach a total capacity of 1.8 million sheets per month[41] - The low dielectric fiberglass yarn project in Qingyuan, Guangdong, with an annual production capacity of 500 tons, is set to commence in the second half of 2025 to meet market demand[41] Sustainability and ESG Commitment - The group is committed to sustainable development goals in environmental, social, and governance (ESG) aspects, reflecting its dedication to long-term benefits[41] - The group continues to receive increasing customer recognition due to stable product quality and timely delivery, aiming to create greater returns for shareholders[41] Corporate Governance - The audit committee has reviewed the accounting policies and practices adopted by the group, including discussions on the financial statements for the year ending December 31, 2024[49] - The company has agreed with Deloitte to publish the consolidated financial statements for the year ending December 31, 2024, which will be approved by the board on March 24, 2025[50] - The preliminary announcement of the consolidated financial statements will reflect the amounts presented in the audited financial statements[50]