Summary of China Coal Energy Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Coal Energy - **Period**: First ten months of 2025 Key Points Industry Overview - **Coal Market**: In October, the thermal coal market experienced price increases due to tight supply, rising costs, and winter expectations. The spot price for thermal coal at ports is projected to range between 800-860 RMB/ton in November [2][6][10] - **Coking Coal Market**: Influenced by environmental regulations and winter storage, the coking coal market is expected to show a strong performance in November [2][6] - **Urea Market**: Prices fell in October due to delayed agricultural sowing and rising inventories, with expectations of weak fluctuations in November, pricing between 1,550-1,650 RMB/ton [2][7] - **Polyolefins Market**: Sales prices decreased due to falling international oil prices and oversupply, with expectations of weak performance in November [2][8] - **Methanol Market**: Prices increased in the first ten months due to rising downstream demand and low inventories, but are expected to weaken in November, with prices in the northwest ranging from 1,800-2,000 RMB/ton [2][8] Production and Sales Data - **Coal Production**: In the first ten months of 2025, China Coal Energy produced 113 million tons of commercial coal, a decrease of 630,000 tons year-on-year. Sales reached 212 million tons, down 18.37 million tons [4] - **Chemical Products**: - Olefins and polyolefins production was 1.122 million tons, down 146,000 tons year-on-year; sales were 1.107 million tons, down 158,000 tons [4] - Urea production increased by 274,000 tons to 1.775 million tons; sales increased by 359,000 tons to 2.015 million tons [4] - Methanol production rose by 201,300 tons to 1.6 million tons; sales increased by 26 tons to 1.618 million tons [4] Future Outlook - **Capital Expenditure**: Expected to remain high at approximately 20 billion RMB in 2026, primarily for ongoing projects and equipment upgrades [4][11] - **Coal Supply Stability**: The coal supply is expected to stabilize over the next two years, with a long-term outlook suggesting domestic coal supply may plateau at 5 billion tons [4][14] - **New Energy Initiatives**: The company is focusing on developing wind and solar energy based on its own resources and exploring the potential of abandoned mines for energy storage and carbon capture [4][15] Pricing and Contractual Arrangements - **Long-term Contracts**: 75% of the company's resources are secured through long-term contracts, with stable pricing around 680 RMB, limiting the impact on downstream users [4][10][12] - **Pricing Mechanism**: The pricing mechanism for electricity coal is expected to maintain a base price plus floating price model, with adjustments to the floating reference index to better respond to market changes [4][10] Additional Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The coal price increase is attributed to multiple factors, including supply constraints, demand changes, and seasonal variations in hydropower [4][12] - **Industry Trends**: The cyclical nature of the coal industry is expected to weaken, with a focus on actual conditions and external environmental changes [4][14] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of China Coal Energy's performance, market conditions, and future strategies.

Market Overview - On November 18, global financial markets experienced a collective decline due to multiple factors affecting market risk sentiment, with Hong Kong's three major indices showing weakness throughout the day. The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.72%, closing below the 26,000-point mark, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 1.65% and 1.93%, respectively [1][2]. Sector Performance - Concerns over overvaluation in artificial intelligence have led to a continued decline in technology stocks. The spot gold price briefly fell below $4,000, causing significant drops in gold and non-ferrous metal stocks, with Lingbao Gold experiencing a nearly 9% decline. The steel sector also faced notable declines due to significant price drops throughout the year [2][5]. - The steel sector led the declines, with China Hanking down over 9%, Maanshan Iron & Steel down over 7%, and several other steel companies experiencing declines of over 5%. A report from CITIC Construction indicated that the steel price is expected to decline significantly by 2025 due to supply-demand mismatches and weakened cost support [5][6]. - The gold sector saw substantial losses, with Lingbao Gold down nearly 9% and other gold mining companies also experiencing declines of over 5% [6][8]. - The lithium battery sector continued to decline, with major companies like Cai Ke New Energy and Zhong Chuang Innovation falling over 10% and 8%, respectively [10]. - The automotive sector faced a downturn, with sales data indicating a 0.8% year-on-year decline in retail sales for October, and a significant drop in November sales figures [11][12]. Investment Trends - Southbound funds recorded a net inflow of HKD 7.466 billion, with the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect seeing net purchases of HKD 2.745 billion and HKD 4.721 billion, respectively [15]. - Looking ahead, Guosen Securities noted that the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in December will set the tone for macro policies and key tasks for the following year, influencing investment strategies and stock valuations [17].

Group 1 - Coal stocks are experiencing significant declines, with Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (01171.HK) down 3.57% to HKD 11.06 [1] - Yancoal Australia (03668.HK) has dropped 3.42%, trading at HKD 27.64 [1] - China Shenhua Energy (01088.HK) is down 2.73%, currently at HKD 40.6 [1] - China Coal Energy (01898.HK) has decreased by 2.47%, with a price of HKD 11.46 [1]

Group 1 - Coal stocks are experiencing significant declines, with Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (01171) down 3.57% to HKD 11.06, Yancoal Australia (03668) down 3.42% to HKD 27.64, China Shenhua Energy (01088) down 2.73% to HKD 40.6, and China Coal Energy (01898) down 2.47% to HKD 11.46 [1] - Despite a year-on-year decline in coal prices expected through the first three quarters of 2025, there has been a noticeable quarter-on-quarter recovery in coal prices in the third quarter due to the impact of "anti-involution" [1] - According to Guotai Junan Securities, coal prices have risen above CNY 830 per ton, and it is believed that the short-term unexpected rise in coal prices may be coming to an end [1] Group 2 - In October, the output of industrial raw coal from large-scale enterprises was 410 million tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%, but remaining stable compared to the previous month [1] - The fundamental reason for the recent rise in coal prices since May is a significant reversal in the supply-demand dynamics of the coal industry, indicating that the medium-term upward trend in coal prices is unlikely to change [1]

Group 1 - Coal stocks have seen significant declines, with Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (600188) down 3.57% to HKD 11.06, Yancoal Australia (03668) down 3.42% to HKD 27.64, China Shenhua Energy (601088) down 2.73% to HKD 40.6, and China Coal Energy (601898) down 2.47% to HKD 11.46 [1] - The coal prices are expected to continue to decline year-on-year until the third quarter of 2025, with coal companies' performance also expected to drop year-on-year. However, due to the "anti-involution" effect, coal prices have shown a significant recovery on a quarter-on-quarter basis in the third quarter, leading to improved quarterly performance for coal companies [1] - According to Guotai Junan Securities, if coal prices rise above CNY 830 per ton, the short-term unexpected increase in coal prices may come to an end [1] Group 2 - In October, the output of industrial raw coal from large-scale enterprises was 410 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%, but remained stable on a month-on-month basis [1] - The fundamental reason for the recent increase in coal prices since May is a significant reversal in the supply-demand dynamics of the coal industry. This core change indicates that the medium-term upward trend in coal prices will not be altered [1]

Core Points - As of October 2025, the company has a total of 82,284 shareholders, with 75,186 in A-shares and 7,098 in H-shares [1] - As of November 10, the number of A-share shareholders is 74,939, while the number of H-share shareholders will be updated at the end of the month [1]

Investment Strategy Overview - The report highlights the resurgence of resource nationalism driven by de-globalization, emphasizing coal's strategic importance for national energy security. Major coal-producing countries like Indonesia, Mongolia, and the USA are tightening control over coal resources, integrating them into national strategies to bolster energy independence and support domestic industrial and power needs [3][4][5]. Supply Side Analysis - The coal industry is undergoing a significant restructuring, with safety and environmental regulations leading to a more rational supply order. The release of production capacity is expected to be steady but cautious, promoting high-quality development in the coal sector [3][4]. - Domestic supply costs are rising, and coal imports are tightening marginally due to increased scrutiny and regulations [4][32]. Demand Side Analysis - The report anticipates a stable and slight increase in overall coal demand, driven by the rigid growth in electricity consumption and the irreplaceable role of coal in peak regulation and energy security. The expected price range for thermal coal in 2026 is projected to be between 750-800 RMB per ton [3][4][29]. - The resilience of coal power generation is highlighted, particularly in the context of fluctuating renewable energy output, indicating that coal will continue to play a crucial role in the energy mix [3][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in stable, high-dividend companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy. It also suggests paying attention to companies with price elasticity like Jinkong Coal Industry, Huayang Co., Tebian Electric Apparatus, and Shanxi Coal International [3][4]. - Growth-oriented companies in coal-electricity joint ventures, such as Xinji Energy, are also recommended for consideration [3][4]. Regional Insights - Indonesia's coal production is expected to decline in 2025 due to new resource tax regulations, which will increase export costs and support domestic coal prices [11][12]. - Mongolia's coal production and sales are affected by ongoing political instability, impacting the stability of coal imports [17][18]. - The USA is implementing favorable policies to revitalize its coal industry, including reducing royalty rates and increasing federal land available for coal exploration [21][22]. Future Capacity and Production Trends - Future coal production capacity is expected to be limited, with only about 67 million tons of new capacity projected over the next three years. The focus is shifting towards regions like Xinjiang, which has significant coal reserves and favorable mining conditions [61][67]. - The report notes that the overall coal production in China is unlikely to see significant growth in 2026 due to ongoing safety inspections and regulatory measures [51][53].

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector is expected to stabilize and rebound in prices due to the "check overproduction" policy, benefiting thermal coal companies through improved long-term contract performance and coal-electricity integration, while coking coal companies face pressure due to lagging contract pricing [1][7]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the coal sector saw a positive revenue growth, with thermal coal companies experiencing a better net profit growth compared to coking coal companies [1]. - The price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal increased from 621 CNY/ton on June 30, 2025, to 699 CNY/ton on September 30, 2025, marking a cumulative increase of 12.6% in Q3 [1]. - The overall performance of the coal industry is expected to continue improving due to increased heating demand and tight supply-side policies in Q4 [1][6]. Group 2: Production and Sales - The "check overproduction" policy in Q3 2025 led to stable production among leading thermal coal companies, while coking coal production saw a noticeable decline [2]. - Most listed coal companies did not significantly reduce their output in Q3, with some midstream companies experiencing high sales growth and accelerated inventory reduction due to improved supply-demand dynamics [2]. Group 3: Pricing Dynamics - In Q3 2025, the self-produced coal prices decreased year-on-year by 10% to 20%, while the sales prices of coal companies showed narrow fluctuations or slight increases, with most increases being less than 10% [3]. - The lag in price transmission from market coal prices to listed companies' sales prices is attributed to long-term contract pricing mechanisms and order delivery cycles [3]. Group 4: Cost Management - In H1 2025, coal companies shifted their strategies from volume-based to cost control, which became crucial in facing low coal prices and high inventory levels [4]. - Leading thermal coal companies maintained cost control in Q3 2025, achieving a decrease in unit costs, while some coking coal companies experienced an increase in unit sales costs, negatively impacting their performance [4]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The combination of stable production, rising prices, and cost reductions for thermal coal companies is expected to lead to improved profitability, while coking coal companies may see significant price rebounds in Q4 as long-term contracts adjust to higher market prices [5]. - The coal market is currently in a phase of tightening supply and increasing demand, with winter coal prices expected to remain strong due to seasonal heating needs and ongoing supply-side policies [7]. Group 6: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests actively monitoring robust thermal coal companies such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, as well as high-elasticity coal companies like Yanzhou Coal Mining, Jincheng Anthracite Mining, and Shanxi Coal International [8].

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that the price of thermal coal has recently increased, with Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal closing at 834 RMB/ton as of November 14, marking a slight increase. The price at Guangzhou Port has reached 880 RMB, surpassing the previously indicated target of 750 RMB for coal-electricity profit sharing, and is currently within the expected fourth target price range of 800-860 RMB [1][2]. Thermal Coal Market Analysis - The recent increase in thermal coal prices is attributed to a combination of supply contraction and a surge in demand, particularly due to heating needs from a cold wave in northern regions and accelerated port restocking [2]. - The price of coking coal at Jing Tang Port is reported at 1860 RMB/ton, rebounding from a low of 1230 RMB in July, while coking coal futures have risen from 719 RMB in June to 1192 RMB, reflecting a cumulative increase of 65.79% [2]. Investment Logic - The price of thermal coal is expected to follow a four-step process: restoring central and local long-term contracts, achieving coal-electricity profit sharing, and surpassing the breakeven point for power plants, which is projected at 860 RMB [3]. - The price of coking coal is influenced more by market dynamics, with a significant correlation to thermal coal prices. The current ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices is 2.4, suggesting target prices for coking coal of 1608 RMB, 1680 RMB, 1800 RMB, and 2064 RMB corresponding to the four target levels of thermal coal [3]. Investment Recommendations - The coal sector is positioned for potential gains due to both cyclical recovery and dividend stability. The current prices of thermal and coking coal are still at historical lows, providing room for upward movement [4][5]. - The report highlights four main investment lines: 1. Cyclical logic with stocks like Jinko Coal and Yanzhou Coal for thermal coal, and Pingmei Shenma and Huabei Mining for metallurgical coal 2. Dividend logic with companies like China Shenhua and Zhongmei Energy 3. Diversified aluminum elasticity with companies like Shenhuo Co. and Electric Power Investment 4. Growth logic with companies like Xinjie Energy and Guanghui Energy [5].

Market Overview - The market is expected to enter a wide-ranging fluctuation phase in the short term, according to institutions [1][12]. Financial Market Performance - On the last trading day, U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.65%, the Nasdaq up 0.13%, and the S&P 500 slightly down by 0.05% [4]. - Notable tech stocks showed varied performance, with Nvidia and Oracle rebounding by 1.7% and 2.4% respectively, while Meta, Apple, and Google experienced slight declines [4]. - Micron Technology's stock rose by 4.2% as Morgan Stanley raised its target price from $220 to $325 due to expected benefits from DRAM supply shortages [4]. Commodity Prices - International oil prices rebounded, with WTI crude oil increasing by 2.39% to $60.09 per barrel and Brent crude oil rising by 2.19% to $64.39 per barrel [5]. - International gold prices fell, with COMEX gold futures for November delivery dropping by 2.37% to $4087.60 per ounce [6]. Policy and Regulatory Developments - The State Council of China held a meeting to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods, aiming to release consumption potential and promote economic circulation [7]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized the importance of the "14th Five-Year Plan" period for building a resilient and robust capital market [8]. - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments issued a notice to strengthen management of second-hand car exports, imposing stricter controls on new cars exported as second-hand vehicles [10]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation released a draft guideline for antitrust compliance in internet platforms, addressing new monopoly risks [11]. Corporate Developments - Huawei is set to release breakthrough technology in the AI field, potentially addressing efficiency issues in computing resource utilization [12]. - Apple CEO Tim Cook is rumored to possibly resign next year [12]. - Various companies, including Rongbai Technology and Fudan Microelectronics, are undergoing significant corporate changes, such as partnerships and share transfers [12].