作为市场唯一一只煤炭ETF，煤炭ETF(515220)跟踪中证煤炭指数（399998），截至7月22日，股息率5.45%，在无风险利率下行的背景下配置价值凸显。可 考虑逢低分批布局煤炭ETF（515220）及其联接基金（联接A：008279；联接C：008280；联接E：022501），把握煤炭板块投资机会。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成 任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相匹 配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 近期煤炭市场稳中偏强运行，受降雨影响，部分露天煤矿生产受限，叠加部分煤矿完成月度任务停产或减产，产区整体供应收紧。同时，降雨导致部分运输 受阻，港口调入量低位运行，库存持续下降，市场优质资源紧俏。终端刚需采购稳定，加之近期大集团涨价以及北港库存持续下降提振市场信心，部分站台 及贸易商对后市预期较好，采购积极性增加，煤炭价格稳中小幅上涨。从今日盘面表现来看，中煤能源、兖矿 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for China Shenhua [7][14] Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading beneficiary in the coal sector, with expected capacity increases in the future. The report suggests that the coal market has reached its bottom, with supply and demand expected to improve in Q2 2025, enhancing the investment value of Shenhua [2][14] - The forecast for the first half of 2025 indicates a net profit attributable to shareholders of 23.6-25.6 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 13.2%-20%. The second quarter's net profit is projected to be around 12.7 billion yuan, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase [14] - The report anticipates a recovery in coal demand and a decrease in costs, which will mitigate the impact of falling prices. In Q2, the company is expected to achieve coal production of 82.9 million tons and sales of 105 million tons, reflecting a 6.3% increase from Q1 [14] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 343.074 billion yuan, with a slight decrease of 0.4% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 59.694 billion yuan, down 14.3% from the previous year [4][15] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is forecasted at 2.49 yuan, with a gradual increase to 3.25 yuan by 2027. The report adjusts the EPS estimates downward for 2025-2027 [4][15] - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 15.04 for 2025, with a target price set at 44.79 yuan, reflecting a slight decrease from previous estimates [14][16] Market Data - The stock has a 52-week price range of 35.35-43.60 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 744.473 billion yuan [8] - The company has a net asset value per share of 21.80 yuan and a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.7 [9]

点击注册小程序 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 基本面：进口减量有限，产增需减导致过剩 （1）2025Q1，我国煤炭进口总量1.1亿吨，同比-0.9%，总体仍维持高位，其中，由印尼进口煤炭5259万吨， 同比-6.6%，由澳大利亚进口煤炭1645万吨，同比+3.7%，由蒙古进口煤炭1749万吨，同比+3.1%，由俄罗斯进 口煤炭1962万吨，同比+7.9%；（2）2025Q1，我国原煤产量12.0亿吨，同比+8.8%，其中，新疆、山西、陕 西、内蒙古原煤产量同比增速分别为16.9%、19.8%、4.1%、2.1%；（3）2025Q1，我国火电发电量1.5万亿千 瓦时，同比-4.4%，生铁产量2.2亿吨，同比+1.4%，水泥产量3.3亿吨，同比-1.7%，化工耗煤量0.8亿吨，同比 +14 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for several key companies in the coal mining sector, including China Qinfa, China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others [6][10]. Core Insights - The primary factor driving the recent decline in coal prices is weak demand [1]. - In the first two months of 2025, raw coal production increased by 7.7% year-on-year, with a daily average production of 12.97 million tons [1][13]. - Coal imports for the same period reached 7.619 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [2][15]. - The report anticipates a slight decline in thermal coal imports for 2025, projecting a total of approximately 38.5 million tons, down 4.9% from the previous year [2][15]. - The report highlights a significant drop in thermal power generation, which decreased by 5.8% year-on-year in January and February 2025 [3][17]. - The crude steel production in the same period saw a decline of 1.5% year-on-year, amounting to 16.63 million tons [4][24]. Summary by Sections Production - In January and February 2025, raw coal production was 77 million tons, marking a 7.7% increase year-on-year, with an expected net increase of 55-60 million tons for the year [1][13]. Imports - The total coal imports for the first two months of 2025 were 7.619 million tons, a 2.1% increase compared to the same period last year [2][15]. The report predicts a stable to slightly declining trend in thermal coal imports for the year [2][15]. Demand - The report notes a 5.8% year-on-year decrease in thermal power generation, with total industrial power generation down by 1.3% [3][17]. The growth rates for other energy sources like wind and solar power were noted, with wind power increasing by 10.4% and solar power by 27.4% [3][17]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes a focus on companies showing potential for recovery, such as China Qinfa and China Shenhua, and highlights the importance of companies engaging in share buybacks, like Pingmei Shenma [5][26].