以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： 煤价有底，预计26年开启需求上行周期；报告日期：2025.12.22 报告作者： 黄涛（分析师），登记编号：S0880515090001 王楠瑀（分析师），登记编号：S0880525070029 邓铖琦（分析师），登记编号：S0880523050003 重要提醒 煤价有底，需求是核心。 煤炭价格走势的核心驱动逻辑是供需格局。我们认为当前煤价快速回落的空间已不大，本轮底部预计在 680-700 元 / 吨。从当前 旺季供需看，需求处于近五年中值区间，港口库存近期已 经有下降的趋势，但后续仍要关注天气，但下行空间不大（历史同期也是暖冬）； 11 月煤价回升 至 800 元 / 吨以上，进口量仅环比微增 5.9% 至 4400 万吨，国内供给 11 月恢复到 4.3 亿吨，但同比依然有降。 2025 年 1-5 月抢装达到 200GW 光 伏装机对于今冬是最后一波压力冲击，而 6 月 136 号文实施后起光伏装机断崖式下跌，预示 2026 年一季度新能源替代压力将下降。我们认为煤炭板块周期 底部已经确认在 25Q2 ，供需格局已经显现了逆转拐点，且我们预 ...

股票研究/[Table_Date] 2025.12.22 2025-12-22 煤价有底，预计 26 年开启需求上行周期 煤炭行业周报 本报告导读： 我们认为煤炭板块周期底部已经确认在 25Q2，供需格局已经显现了逆转拐点，下行 风险充分释放。 投资要点： 股 票 研 究 业 跟 踪 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 行 [table_Authors] [Table_Summary] 投资建议：从板块角度，依然建议重点关注红利核心中国神华、陕 西煤业、中煤能源；继续关注兖矿能源、晋控煤业。 煤价有底，需求是核心。煤炭价格走势的核心驱动逻辑是供需格局。 我们认为当前煤价快速回落的空间已不大，本轮底部预计在 680-700 元/吨。从当前旺季供需看，需求处于近五年中值区间，港口库存近 期已经有下降的趋势，但后续仍要关注天气，但下行空间不大（历 史同期也是暖冬）；11 月煤价回升至 800 元/吨以上，进口量仅环比 微增 5.9%至 4400 万吨，国内供给 11 月恢复到 4.3 亿吨，但同比依 然有降。2025 年 1-5 月抢装达到 200GW 光伏装机对于今冬是最后 一波压力 ...

12月以来，国内煤炭市场供需格局延续宽松态势，煤价不断下行。但后市来看，随着国内煤炭产量收 紧，国内煤炭市场供需宽松格局有望得到一定程度改善，煤价存在降后企稳的可能。 具体来看，12月以来，国内煤炭市场价格持续下行，目前仍未止跌，买涨不买跌情绪影响下，市场交易 氛围比较冷清。据卓创资讯统计数据显示，截至12月5日，山西大同Q5500大卡动力煤出矿价为615-655 元／吨，较11月底降40元／吨，降幅5.93%。 导致12月以来国内煤价持续下行的原因主要是国内煤炭市场供需格局持续宽松。从供应端来看，12月初 国内主流煤矿继续保持平稳生产，而11月底暂停生产的民营煤矿生产陆续恢复正常，同时主要中转港口 煤炭库存量逐步累积，国内煤炭供应整体比较充足。 从需求端来看，用煤企业对高价比较抵触，采购积极性不佳，满足刚需为主，而买涨不买跌情绪影响下 贸易商投机需求也相对有限，整体导致需求端对市场支撑不足。在此背景下，国内煤价持续下行。值得 关注的是，煤价的松动下行，进一步加重市场参与者的短期悲观情绪，交易更显冷清。在此背景下，预 计煤价暂无明显止跌信号，或继续保持偏弱调整态势。 但往后看，受国内煤炭市场供需格局可能收紧的 ...

（卓创资讯分析师赵丽） 后市煤价或存在跌后企稳可能 后市煤价走势或先偏弱调整后止跌企稳，这主要是受国内煤炭市场供需格局或先宽松后存收紧预期影 响，具体来看： 供应端：12月前半段，煤矿基本保持平稳生产，而进入12月后半段，由于临近月末及年末，煤矿生产安 全意识比较强，同时随着年度生产任务陆续完成，停产检修的煤矿数量或将陆续增加，预计国内煤炭产 量或先增后有减少。从中转环节煤炭库存数量来看，12月份以来，北方三港煤炭库存量稳步增长，有效 保障沿海地区用煤需求，截至2025年12月5日，北方三港煤炭库存量为2675万吨，较11月底增加149万 吨，增幅5.9%，由于煤价下行趋势或将持续，影响下游用户及二港贸易商拉运积极性，预计北方三港 煤炭库存仍有进一步上行空间；但进入本月后半段后，随着坑口煤炭产量收紧，预计港口煤炭资源调入 量或也有一定受限，预计港口煤炭库存量或先增后存下降预期。从进口煤数量来看，进口煤较同热值内 贸煤一直保持明显价格优势，国内沿海地区电厂对进口煤接受度比较高，采购比较积极，因此12月进口 煤数量或继续保持在较高水平，补充国内煤炭供应，据卓创资讯统计数据显示，截至12月5日，印尼 Q3800大卡 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the increasing attention on the low volatility dividend style in the Hong Kong stock market, particularly in the context of changing coal supply and demand dynamics [1][5]. Group 1: Dividend Low Volatility Style - The low volatility dividend style index has shown superior risk-return ratios this year, with a median Sharpe ratio and Calmar ratio indicating strong performance [4]. - The annualized return of the low volatility dividend style index is the highest this year, with a maximum drawdown recovery time of only 21 days, suggesting a favorable holding experience [5]. - The index has constraints on individual stock weights (0.05% to 5%) and industry weights (not exceeding 30%), leading to a high degree of asset risk diversification [5]. Group 2: Coal Industry Dynamics - The coal industry is experiencing a tightening supply side, which is becoming a key investment theme, with coal prices expected to rise further due to increased demand in the fourth quarter [5]. - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) has prioritized "stabilizing electricity prices" alongside "stabilizing coal prices," providing policy support that may enhance the valuation of high-dividend companies [5]. - The top five sectors by dividend yield over the past 12 months include: - Commercial Banks: 5.45% - Coal Mining: 4.95% - White Goods: 4.59% - Rural Commercial Banks: 4.20% - Shipping and Ports [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the demand for thermal coal remains strong, leading to a continuous rise in prices, with expectations for further increases in the fourth quarter [1][2] - As of November 10, the reference prices for thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region are reported at 817, 725, and 633 CNY/ton for 5500K, 5000K, and 4500K grades respectively, showing daily increases of 8, 8, and 6 CNY/ton, but still lower year-on-year by 35, 28, and 28 CNY/ton [1] - The report from Zheshang Securities suggests that the coal price may reach 800 CNY/ton, with potential upward movement to 850 CNY/ton due to supply constraints and increased consumption during the winter peak [1] Group 2 - The tightening of supply in the coal industry is becoming a key investment theme, with expectations that the supply-demand imbalance will improve in the fourth quarter, leading to higher coal prices [2] - Companies with a high proportion of long-term contracts, such as Shenhua and China Coal, are expected to have stable performance, while undervalued stocks like Yanzhou Coal may see valuation recovery if coal prices continue to rebound [2] Group 3 - Related Hong Kong-listed coal companies include China Shenhua (01088), China Coal Energy (601898) (01898), Yanzhou Coal (01171), Yancoal Australia (03668), Power Development (01277), Yida Zong (01733), and China Qinfa (00866) [3]

Group 1 - The coal market is currently operating steadily with a slight upward trend, influenced by rainfall that has limited production in some open-pit coal mines, alongside some mines halting or reducing production after meeting monthly targets, leading to a tightening of overall supply in production areas [1] - Rainfall has also caused transportation disruptions, resulting in low port inflow and a continuous decline in inventory, making high-quality resources scarce in the market [1] - Stable demand from end-users, recent price increases by large groups, and the ongoing decline in inventory at northern ports have boosted market confidence, leading to increased purchasing activity among traders and a slight rise in coal prices [1] Group 2 - The supply-demand dynamics in the coal industry are improving, with strong expectations for coal price recovery. Since the supply-side reform in 2016, outdated production capacity has been continuously eliminated, optimizing the capacity structure [3] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to further control the increase in coal supply, while coal imports hit a two-year low in June, indicating a strong certainty of declining import volumes [3] - From the demand side, electricity generation from thermal power has shown positive year-on-year growth since late May, with a notable increase in national power load, which is expected to support strong demand for coking coal [3] Group 3 - The coal ETF (515220), which tracks the CSI Coal Index (399998), has a dividend yield of 5.45% as of July 22, highlighting its investment value in a declining risk-free interest rate environment [3] - Investors are encouraged to consider gradually accumulating positions in the coal ETF (515220) and its related funds to capitalize on investment opportunities in the coal sector [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for China Shenhua [7][14] Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading beneficiary in the coal sector, with expected capacity increases in the future. The report suggests that the coal market has reached its bottom, with supply and demand expected to improve in Q2 2025, enhancing the investment value of Shenhua [2][14] - The forecast for the first half of 2025 indicates a net profit attributable to shareholders of 23.6-25.6 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 13.2%-20%. The second quarter's net profit is projected to be around 12.7 billion yuan, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase [14] - The report anticipates a recovery in coal demand and a decrease in costs, which will mitigate the impact of falling prices. In Q2, the company is expected to achieve coal production of 82.9 million tons and sales of 105 million tons, reflecting a 6.3% increase from Q1 [14] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 343.074 billion yuan, with a slight decrease of 0.4% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 59.694 billion yuan, down 14.3% from the previous year [4][15] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is forecasted at 2.49 yuan, with a gradual increase to 3.25 yuan by 2027. The report adjusts the EPS estimates downward for 2025-2027 [4][15] - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 15.04 for 2025, with a target price set at 44.79 yuan, reflecting a slight decrease from previous estimates [14][16] Market Data - The stock has a 52-week price range of 35.35-43.60 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 744.473 billion yuan [8] - The company has a net asset value per share of 21.80 yuan and a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.7 [9]

Core Viewpoint - The coal industry is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with limited reduction in imports and increased domestic production leading to oversupply [2][5]. Group 1: Fundamentals - In Q1 2025, China's total coal imports reached 110 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.9%, maintaining a high level. Notably, imports from Indonesia were 52.59 million tons (down 6.6%), Australia 16.45 million tons (up 3.7%), Mongolia 17.49 million tons (up 3.1%), and Russia 19.62 million tons (up 7.9%) [2]. - Domestic raw coal production in Q1 2025 was 1.2 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%. The production growth rates in Xinjiang, Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia were 16.9%, 19.8%, 4.1%, and 2.1%, respectively [2]. - In Q1 2025, China's thermal power generation was 1.5 trillion kWh, down 4.4% year-on-year, while pig iron production was 220 million tons (up 1.4%), cement production was 330 million tons (down 1.7%), and chemical coal consumption was 80 million tons (up 14.8%) [2]. Group 2: Coal Prices - In Q1 2025, the average price of 5500 kcal thermal coal at ports was 721 CNY/ton, down 20% year-on-year and 12% quarter-on-quarter. The average price of long-term contract thermal coal was 690 CNY/ton, down 3% year-on-year and 1% quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The pithead coal prices followed the downward trend of port coal prices, with average prices in Yulin, Datong, and Ordos down 24%, 26%, and 24% year-on-year, respectively [3]. - Coking coal prices saw a more significant decline, with the average price of coking coal in Shanxi's Lüliang at 1252 CNY/ton, down 44% year-on-year and 19% quarter-on-quarter [3]. Group 3: Sector Profitability - In Q1 2025, the total operating revenue of the coal mining industry was 284.56 billion CNY, down 17.8% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 30.1 billion CNY, down 27.5% year-on-year, with an annualized return on equity of 9.6%, down 4.2 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - Among the four coal companies with a market capitalization exceeding 100 billion CNY (Shenhua, China Coal, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal), the net profit attributable to shareholders was 23.44 billion CNY, down 19.9% year-on-year, while the remaining 20 coal companies reported a net profit of 7.25 billion CNY, down 46.0% year-on-year, indicating a divergence in profitability [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - In March, coal imports decreased by 6.4% year-on-year, and future coal import volumes are expected to contract [5]. - Some coal companies are already facing accounting losses, which may lead to production cuts or shutdowns [5]. - Since the beginning of the year, thermal power generation has significantly underperformed expectations, and the upcoming summer peak in electricity demand may lead to a marginal improvement in coal demand [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for several key companies in the coal mining sector, including China Qinfa, China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others [6][10]. Core Insights - The primary factor driving the recent decline in coal prices is weak demand [1]. - In the first two months of 2025, raw coal production increased by 7.7% year-on-year, with a daily average production of 12.97 million tons [1][13]. - Coal imports for the same period reached 7.619 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [2][15]. - The report anticipates a slight decline in thermal coal imports for 2025, projecting a total of approximately 38.5 million tons, down 4.9% from the previous year [2][15]. - The report highlights a significant drop in thermal power generation, which decreased by 5.8% year-on-year in January and February 2025 [3][17]. - The crude steel production in the same period saw a decline of 1.5% year-on-year, amounting to 16.63 million tons [4][24]. Summary by Sections Production - In January and February 2025, raw coal production was 77 million tons, marking a 7.7% increase year-on-year, with an expected net increase of 55-60 million tons for the year [1][13]. Imports - The total coal imports for the first two months of 2025 were 7.619 million tons, a 2.1% increase compared to the same period last year [2][15]. The report predicts a stable to slightly declining trend in thermal coal imports for the year [2][15]. Demand - The report notes a 5.8% year-on-year decrease in thermal power generation, with total industrial power generation down by 1.3% [3][17]. The growth rates for other energy sources like wind and solar power were noted, with wind power increasing by 10.4% and solar power by 27.4% [3][17]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes a focus on companies showing potential for recovery, such as China Qinfa and China Shenhua, and highlights the importance of companies engaging in share buybacks, like Pingmei Shenma [5][26].