国海证券研报指出，中煤能源2025年前三季度实现归母净利润124.85亿元，同比-14.6%；Q3归母净利润 47.80亿元，环比+28.3%。三季度业绩环比提升主要系第三季度煤价环比提升、成本环比下降，化工板 块盈利环比提升等所致。考虑到公司长协比例高，业绩稳定性强，资源开采久期长，同时未来公司里必 煤矿以及苇子沟煤矿投产，煤化工业务陆续放量，业绩仍有增长空间，同时公司提高分红加大对股东回 报，维持"买入"评级。 ...

国海证券研报指出，中煤能源2025年前三季度实现归母净利润124.85亿元，同比-14.6%；Q3归母净利润 47.80亿元，环比+28.3%。三季度业绩环比提升主要系第三季度煤价环比提升、成本环比下降，化工板 块盈利环比提升等所致。考虑到公司长协比例高，业绩稳定性强，资源开采久期长，同时未来公司里必 煤矿以及苇子沟煤矿投产，煤化工业务陆续放量，业绩仍有增长空间，同时公司提高分红加大对股东回 报，维持"买入"评级。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company's coal and coal chemical businesses have shown significant improvement, leading to a notable recovery in performance. The revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 110.58 billion yuan, down 21.2% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 12.49 billion yuan, down 14.6% year-on-year. In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 36.15 billion yuan, a decrease of 23.8% year-on-year but an increase of 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 4.78 billion yuan, down 1.0% year-on-year but up 28.3% quarter-on-quarter [1][2][3] Summary by Sections Coal Business - The company's self-produced coal production and sales remained relatively stable. In Q3 2025, the total coal production was 34.24 million tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.7%. The sales volume of commodity coal was 61.68 million tons, down 14.3% year-on-year and 4.4% quarter-on-quarter. The average selling price for self-produced thermal coal and coking coal was 442 yuan/ton and 993 yuan/ton, respectively, with year-on-year decreases of 46 yuan/ton and 183 yuan/ton, but quarter-on-quarter increases of 23 yuan/ton and 150 yuan/ton. The unit sales cost for self-produced commodity coal was 247 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton year-on-year and 9 yuan/ton quarter-on-quarter [2] Coal Chemical Business - The coal chemical business saw significant improvement in profitability due to a decrease in methanol costs. In Q3 2025, the sales volumes of major coal chemical products such as polyolefins, urea, methanol, and ammonium nitrate showed mixed results, with respective changes of +6.2%, -3.7%, +6.4%, and -17.5% quarter-on-quarter. The gross profit for the coal chemical business in Q3 2025 was 700 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 87% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 52% [3] Financial Forecasts - The profit forecasts have been raised due to higher-than-expected coal prices since the peak season. The expected net profits for 2025-2027 are 17.0 billion yuan, 18.2 billion yuan, and 19.1 billion yuan, respectively, up from previous estimates of 16.2 billion yuan, 16.5 billion yuan, and 17.2 billion yuan. The company is expected to maintain strong performance in both coal and coal chemical businesses, with significant potential for increased dividend payouts [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - China Coal Energy reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, but managed to maintain profitability in its coal business through effective cost control and a slight recovery in coal prices [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 110.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.2% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 12.49 billion yuan, down 14.6% year-on-year, with a basic earnings per share of 0.94 yuan, a decline of 14.5% [1] - In Q3 2025, the company reported a single-quarter operating revenue of 36.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.8%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.3% [1] Group 2: Coal Business Performance - The company produced 101.58 million tons of self-produced coal, a slight decrease of 0.7% year-on-year, while sales increased by 1.1% to 101.45 million tons [1] - The average selling price of self-produced coal was 474 yuan/ton, down 17.0% year-on-year, with thermal coal and coking coal prices decreasing by 12.9% and 29.5%, respectively [1] - The unit sales cost of self-produced coal was 257.67 yuan/ton, a reduction of 10.1% year-on-year, attributed to improved procurement management and reduced other costs [1] Group 3: Coal Chemical Business Performance - Polyolefin sales were 984,000 tons, down 13.3% year-on-year, while urea and methanol sales increased by 19.5% and 24.0%, respectively [2] - The average selling price for polyolefin was 6,547 yuan/ton, down 6.1% year-on-year, while urea and methanol prices decreased by 18.2% and 0.6%, respectively [2] - The unit sales cost for polyolefin increased by 4.3% year-on-year, while costs for urea and methanol decreased by 16.8% and 28.7%, respectively [2] Group 4: Future Growth and Shareholder Returns - The company has ongoing projects, including the Libai Coal Mine and the Weizigou Coal Mine, expected to start production in 2026, which will contribute to increased output [2] - The current dividend payout ratio is low, but it is anticipated to increase as new projects come online and capital expenditure peaks [2] Group 5: Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 17.3 billion yuan, 18.4 billion yuan, and 19.4 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with earnings per share projected at 1.30 yuan, 1.39 yuan, and 1.47 yuan, respectively [3] - The investment rating is maintained at "Buy" due to the stability from long-term contracts and growth from internal business expansion [3]

Group 1: Target Price Increases - The companies with the highest target price increases on October 28 include Xueda Education, Dong'e Ejiao, and China Automotive Technology Research Center, with target price increases of 75.33%, 64.38%, and 58.15% respectively [1][3] - Xueda Education received a "Buy" rating from Huatai Securities with a target price of 73.36 yuan [3] - Dong'e Ejiao was rated "Hold" by Nomura Orient International Securities with a target price of 78.00 yuan [3] - China Automotive Technology Research Center was rated "Increase" by Guotai Haitong Securities with a target price of 27.55 yuan [3] Group 2: Broker Recommendations - On October 28, a total of 262 listed companies received broker recommendations, with Qingdao Beer receiving the highest number of recommendations at 13 [4][5] - Ningbo Bank and Yanjinpuzi both received 11 recommendations [4] - The companies with the most broker recommendations include Qingdao Beer (13), Ningbo Bank (11), and Yanjinpuzi (11) [5] Group 3: Rating Adjustments - On October 28, Guotou Securities upgraded Yiling Pharmaceutical's rating from "Increase" to "Buy" [6] - Six companies had their ratings downgraded, including Baoxiniang, which was downgraded from "Buy" to "Increase" by Everbright Securities [7] - Other companies with downgraded ratings include Waifu Holdings and Fuanna, with ratings adjusted to "Cautious Recommendation" and "Increase" respectively [7] Group 4: First Coverage - Five companies received first coverage on October 28, including Qianyan Biology, which was rated "Increase" by Caitong Securities [8] - Other companies receiving first coverage include Dazhong Mining, Songyuan Safety, Daotong Technology, and Hehe Information, all rated "Buy" or "Increase" by various securities firms [8]

Core Insights - On October 28, a total of 182 target price adjustments were made by brokerages for listed companies, with notable increases in target prices for Xueda Education, Dong'e Ejiao, and China Automotive Technology, showing increases of 75.33%, 64.38%, and 58.15% respectively, across the education, traditional Chinese medicine, and automotive service sectors [1][3]. Group 1: Target Price Increases - Xueda Education received a target price of 73.36 yuan with a target increase of 75.33% from Huatai Securities [3]. - Dong'e Ejiao's target price was set at 78.00 yuan, reflecting a 64.38% increase from Nomura Orient International Securities [3]. - China Automotive Technology's target price is 27.55 yuan, indicating a 58.15% increase from Guotai Junan Securities [3]. Group 2: Brokerage Recommendations - A total of 262 listed companies received brokerage recommendations on October 28, with Qingdao Beer receiving the highest number of recommendations at 13 [4][5]. - Ningbo Bank and Yanjinpuzi both received 11 recommendations each [4]. Group 3: Rating Adjustments - Yiling Pharmaceutical's rating was upgraded from "Hold" to "Buy" by Guotou Securities on October 28 [6]. - Six companies had their ratings downgraded, including Baoxiniang, which was downgraded from "Buy" to "Hold" by Everbright Securities [7]. Group 4: First Coverage - Five companies received initial coverage on October 28, including Qianyan Biology with a rating of "Hold" from Caitong Securities [8]. - Other companies receiving initial ratings include Dazhong Mining, Songyuan Safety, Daotong Technology, and Hehe Information, all rated "Buy" or "Hold" by various brokerages [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Guangfa CSI National New Hong Kong Stock Connect Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF (520900) has experienced a decline in both share count and total assets in 2024, indicating potential challenges in attracting investor interest [1][2]. Fund Overview - The fund was established on June 26, 2024, with an annual management fee of 0.50% and a custody fee of 0.10% [1]. - As of October 27, 2024, the fund's total share count is 1.593 billion shares, with a total asset size of 1.703 billion yuan [1]. - The fund's share count has decreased by 36.42% and total assets by 26.58% since December 31, 2024 [1]. Liquidity Analysis - Over the last 20 trading days, the fund has accumulated a total trading volume of 1.108 billion yuan, averaging 55.42 million yuan per day [1]. - Year-to-date, the fund has seen a total trading volume of 18.107 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 91.92 million yuan across 197 trading days [1]. Fund Management - The current fund managers are Huo Huaming and Lü Xin, with respective management periods yielding returns of 8.60% and 22.17% [2]. - Huo Huaming has managed the fund since its inception, while Lü Xin is set to manage it starting April 30, 2025 [2]. Top Holdings - The fund's major holdings include: - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (10.86% holding) - China Mobile (10.32% holding) - China Shenhua Energy (9.70% holding) - CNOOC Limited (9.52% holding) - COSCO Shipping Holdings (8.42% holding) - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (7.40% holding) - China Telecom (4.53% holding) - China Unicom (3.44% holding) - China Coal Energy (2.59% holding) - China Resources Land (2.22% holding) [2][3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company reported better-than-expected performance in Q3 2025, with total revenue of 110.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.24%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.485 billion yuan, down 14.57% year-on-year [6] - Effective cost control has been noted, with a slight decrease in gross margin for self-produced coal [6] - The company is progressing steadily with its construction projects, aiming to build a "coal-electricity-chemical-new" integrated industrial chain [6] - Due to rising coal prices, the profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted upwards [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue (million yuan) for 2025 is projected at 155,378, with a year-on-year growth rate of -18.0% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders (million yuan) for 2025 is estimated at 16,928, with a year-on-year growth rate of -12.4% [2] - Earnings per share (yuan/share) for 2025 is expected to be 1.28 [2] - Gross margin (%) for 2025 is projected at 26.5% [2] - Return on equity (ROE) for 2025 is estimated at 11.0% [2] Market Data - Closing price as of October 27, 2025, is 13.75 yuan [3] - The one-year high/low price range is 14.09/9.42 yuan [3] - The market capitalization of circulating A shares is 125.84 billion yuan [3] - The price-to-earnings ratio (PE) for 2025 is projected at 11 [2][3] Operational Highlights - The company produced 102 million tons of commodity coal in the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 0.7% year-on-year [6] - The average selling price of self-produced coal was 474 yuan/ton, down 17.0% year-on-year [6] - The company achieved a gross margin of 216 yuan/ton for self-produced coal, a decrease of 23.9% year-on-year [6] - Management and financial expenses have decreased, contributing to a reduction in total expenses [6]

煤价回升带动盈利修复，Q3 业绩超预期 煤炭开采 执业证书编号：S0740522040001 Email：duchong@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(百万股) | 13,258.66 | | 流通股本(百万股) | 13,258.66 | | 市价(元) | 13.75 | | 市值(百万元) | 182,306.62 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 182,306.62 | 行，中期现金分红积极回馈股东》 2025-08-23 长潜力》2025-03-22 中煤能源（601898.SH） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 10 月 28 日 | 买入（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | 评级： | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | | 营业收入（百万元） | | | 192,969 | | | | 185,871 | | | 增长率 y ...

Core Insights - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with total revenue at 110.58 billion yuan, down 21.24% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 12.485 billion yuan, down 14.57% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 36.148 billion yuan, a decrease of 23.78% year-on-year but a slight increase of 0.29% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The net profit for Q3 2025 was 4.780 billion yuan, down 0.96% year-on-year but up 28.26% quarter-on-quarter [1] Group 2: Coal Business Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company produced and sold 101.58 million tons and 190.36 million tons of coal, respectively, down 0.73 million tons and 15.15 million tons year-on-year [2] - For Q3 2025, production and sales were 34.24 million tons and 61.68 million tons, respectively, with year-on-year decreases of 1.57 million tons and 10.28 million tons, but a quarter-on-quarter increase in production of 0.25 million tons [2] Group 3: Pricing and Cost Management - The average selling price of self-produced coal for the first three quarters of 2025 was 474 yuan per ton, down 97 yuan per ton year-on-year [2] - The unit sales cost of self-produced coal for the first three quarters of 2025 was 258 yuan per ton, a decrease of 28.9 yuan per ton year-on-year [3] - The company has implemented cost management measures, resulting in a reduction of material costs and other costs associated with coal production [3] Group 4: Strategic Acquisitions - The company announced plans to acquire a 30% stake in a renewable energy company for 115 million yuan, which is expected to enhance profitability and support the development of a "coal-electricity-chemical-new" industry chain [3] Group 5: Investment Outlook - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 16 billion, 17.1 billion, and 18.5 billion yuan, corresponding to P/E ratios of 11.4, 10.7, and 9.9 times, respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [3]