Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Sands China (1928) with a target price of HKD 25.11, representing a potential upside of 27.9% from the current price of HKD 19.63 [3][5]. Core Insights - The new promotional strategies are beginning to show results, with expectations for continued market share and EBITDA growth. The company is projected to achieve EBITDA of USD 2.7 to 2.8 billion in the short term [5][6]. - The third quarter of 2025 saw net income increase by 7.3% year-on-year and 6.1% quarter-on-quarter, reaching USD 1.9 billion, recovering to 90% of 2019 levels [5]. - The company holds approximately USD 1.13 billion in cash, with net debt reduced to USD 5.79 billion [5]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023: USD 6,534 million - 2024: USD 7,080 million (8.4% increase) - 2025: USD 7,356 million (3.9% increase) - 2026: USD 8,010 million (8.9% increase) - 2027: USD 8,476 million (5.8% increase) [4][6] - **EBITDA Forecast**: - 2023: USD 2,225 million - 2024: USD 2,329 million (4.7% increase) - 2025: USD 2,321 million (-0.4% decrease) - 2026: USD 2,595 million (11.8% increase) - 2027: USD 2,793 million (7.6% increase) [4][6] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2023: USD 692 million - 2024: USD 1,045 million (51.0% increase) - 2025: USD 1,004 million (-4.0% decrease) - 2026: USD 1,303 million (29.8% increase) - 2027: USD 1,432 million (9.9% increase) [4][6] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023: 15.86 cents - 2024: 19.99 cents - 2025: 12.40 cents - 2026: 16.09 cents - 2027: 17.69 cents [4][6] - **Dividend Per Share**: - 2024: 3.2 cents - 2025: 3.7 cents - 2026: 4.8 cents - 2027: 5.3 cents [4][6] Market Performance - The company has regained market share in the mid-market and gaming machine segments, reaching 25.4%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.4% [5]. - The performance of various casinos includes: - Venetian Macao: USD 692 million - Londoner: USD 686 million - Parisian: USD 218 million - Four Seasons: USD 206 million - Sands Macao: USD 72 million [5].

Core Viewpoint - First Shanghai maintains a "Buy" rating for Sands China (01928) with a target price of HKD 25.11, citing strong performance in Q3 2025 and confidence in the group's long-term development [1] Group 1: Q3 2025 Performance Overview - The overall performance in Q3 2025 was strong, with net revenue increasing by 7.3% year-on-year and 6.1% quarter-on-quarter to USD 1.9 billion, recovering to 90% of 2019 levels [1] - VIP business saw a decline of 16.3% year-on-year and 5.2% quarter-on-quarter, recovering to 34% of 2019 levels [1] - Mass market business grew by 12.1% year-on-year and 9.0% quarter-on-quarter, with high-end mass market up 6.3% year-on-year and 10.8% quarter-on-quarter, and mass market up 18.6% year-on-year and 7.3% quarter-on-quarter [1] Group 2: Retail Business Performance - Gross revenue and operating profit in the retail segment increased by 4.0% and 4.6% year-on-year, and 4.0% and 3.7% quarter-on-quarter, respectively [2] - Hotel occupancy rate was 96.8% with an average price of USD 230 [2] - Adjusted EBITDA grew by 2.7% year-on-year and 6.2% quarter-on-quarter to USD 600 million, recovering to 80% of 2019 levels [2] Group 3: Performance of Individual Casinos - Revenue from various casinos: Venetian Macao at USD 692 million, Londoner at USD 686 million, Parisian at USD 218 million, Four Seasons at USD 206 million, and Sands Macao at USD 72 million [3] - Adjusted EBITDA for these casinos: USD 242 million for Venetian, USD 219 million for Londoner, USD 53 million for Parisian, USD 102 million for Four Seasons, and USD 8 million for Sands, with recovery rates to 2019 levels at 71%, 130%, 44%, 136%, and 15% respectively [3] Group 4: Other Key Points - The group's market share has rebounded due to the full service of the second phase of the Londoner and new promotional strategies [4] - Short-term EBITDA is expected to reach USD 2.7-2.8 billion, with growth in the VIP segment driven by super VIP clients and increased market liquidity [4] - The group has repurchased USD 340 million in shares, increasing its ownership stake to 74.76% [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a general increase in gaming stocks, with notable gains for companies such as Sands China, Galaxy Entertainment, and MGM China, among others [1] - According to a report from JPMorgan, the total gaming revenue for the first 23 days of the month reached MOP 15.6 billion, averaging MOP 678 million per day [1] - Although the average daily revenue decreased by 4% week-on-week to MOP 642 million due to high base effects, the trend for the month indicates a growth of over 10% compared to November of last year [1] Group 2 - JPMorgan maintains a positive outlook for Macau's gaming revenue, suggesting a potential upward adjustment to their forecast of a 13% year-on-year growth for Q4 [1] - In the short term (approximately 6 months), Sands China is favored due to expectations of a dividend increase and greater market share and profits in Q4 [1] - For the long term (over 12 months), Galaxy Entertainment remains JPMorgan's top pick, citing its strong value, long-term growth potential, and the optionality of its fourth phase project expected to open in 2027 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a collective rise in Hong Kong gaming stocks, with notable increases in shares of various companies such as a 7% rise in Asia Entertainment Holdings and a 3.3% increase in Sands China [1] - Morgan Stanley's research indicates that the total gaming revenue for the first 23 days of this month reached 15.6 billion MOP, averaging 678 million MOP per day, which shows a year-on-year growth of over 10% compared to November last year [1] - The report suggests that while the average daily revenue decreased by 4% week-on-week to 642 million MOP due to high base effects, the overall trend indicates potential upside for the fourth quarter growth forecast of 13% year-on-year for Macau gaming revenue [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley expresses a positive outlook on gaming stocks for the upcoming year, particularly favoring Sands China in the short term (approximately 6 months) due to expectations of increased dividends and greater market share and profits in the fourth quarter [1] - The article provides a detailed table of stock performance, showing the latest prices and percentage changes for various gaming companies, with Asia Entertainment Holdings leading the gains at 7.46% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Macau's total gaming revenue for the first 23 days of this month reached MOP 15.6 billion, averaging MOP 678 million per day, showing a year-on-year growth of over 10% compared to November last year, suggesting potential upside to the bank's forecast of a 13% year-on-year growth for Macau gaming in Q4 this year [1][1][1] Group 1 - The average daily revenue for the past week decreased by 4% to MOP 642 million due to high base effects [1] - Morgan Stanley maintains a positive outlook on gaming stocks for next year, despite current stock prices being slightly lower [1] - In the short term (approximately 6 months), the company is optimistic about Sands China, expecting it to increase dividends when announcing earnings at the end of February next year and gain greater market share and profits in Q4 this year [1][1][1] Group 2 - In the long term (over 12 months), Galaxy Entertainment remains Morgan Stanley's top pick, citing its strong value and long-term growth potential, along with the optionality of its Phase 4 project expected to open in 2027, which may reflect in the stock price sometime next year [1][1][1]

Core Viewpoint - The gaming stocks in Macau experienced a significant decline in early trading, with major companies like Sands China, Wynn Macau, MGM China, and Galaxy Entertainment all reporting losses. The Macau government anticipates a stable growth in the tourism sector, projecting a gross gaming revenue of 236 billion MOP for the next year, despite uncertainties in the external environment and economic conditions [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Sands China (01928) fell by 5.33%, trading at 19.2 HKD [1] - Wynn Macau (01128) decreased by 5.12%, trading at 6.3 HKD [1] - MGM China (02282) dropped by 3.67%, trading at 15.47 HKD [1] - Galaxy Entertainment (00027) declined by 3.15%, trading at 38.76 HKD [1] Group 2: Gaming Revenue Insights - The total gaming revenue for the first ten months of this year reached 2,054.27 million MOP, reflecting an 8% year-on-year increase [1] - Morgan Stanley reported that the gaming revenue for October was 240 million MOP, marking a 16% year-on-year growth and a 32% month-on-month increase, the strongest performance in six years [1] - The bank forecasts a slowdown in growth for November, estimating an increase of 8% to 10%, but expects a rebound in December with growth accelerating to 15% to 17% [1]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong gaming stocks experienced a collective decline, with specific companies like Galaxy Entertainment and Sands China seeing drops of over 5% [1][2] - The Macau government anticipates that the tourism industry will continue to develop in the next fiscal year (2026), estimating the total gaming revenue for next year to be 236 billion MOP [1] - Earlier, the government had revised its gaming revenue forecast for 2025 from 240 billion MOP down to 228 billion MOP [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that the growth rate for November may slow down to between 8% and 10% compared to October due to a more challenging base [1]

Group 1 - The gaming stocks experienced a decline in early trading, with Sands China down 5.33% to HKD 19.2, Wynn Macau down 5.12% to HKD 6.3, MGM China down 3.67% to HKD 15.47, and Galaxy Entertainment down 3.15% to HKD 38.76 [1] - The Macau government anticipates that the tourism industry will continue to develop in 2026, estimating the total gaming gross revenue for next year to be MOP 236 billion, considering external uncertainties and economic conditions [1] - For the first ten months of this year, the gaming revenue reached MOP 2,054.27 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8% [1] Group 2 - According to a report from JPMorgan, the total gaming revenue in Macau for October was MOP 24 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 16% and a month-on-month increase of 32%, marking the strongest performance in six years [1] - The bank projects that the growth rate may slow to 8% to 10% in November due to a tougher comparison base, but expects an acceleration in gaming revenue growth to 15% to 17% starting in December, with at least low double-digit growth anticipated in the first quarter of next year [1]

Core Insights - Sands China Limited collaborates with Louis Vuitton to host the Cruise 2026 Spring Collection fashion show in Macau, marking Louis Vuitton's first fashion show in the region [1][3] - The event showcases a new collection designed by Nicolas Ghesquière, featuring prominent figures such as Song Qian and Liu Jia Ling [1][3] Group 1: Event Significance - The fashion show represents a significant milestone for Macau, enhancing its global influence and showcasing Sands China's ability to blend luxury fashion with world-class experiences [3] - The event reflects a shared vision between Sands China and Louis Vuitton to create memorable luxury experiences and solidify Macau's position as a cultural and creative destination [3] Group 2: Cultural Integration - The fashion show intertwines Macau's rich cultural heritage with Louis Vuitton's timeless French elegance, echoing a previous show held in France [3][4] - The event aims to explore the performative and artistic value of clothing, emphasizing its emotional impact and narrative power [4] Group 3: Retail Experience - The reopening of Louis Vuitton's flagship store in Macau in April 2025 features a diverse range of creative products and a unique architectural design by Japanese architect OMA [4] - The Sands Shopping City, which includes the flagship store, offers a luxurious shopping experience with around 850 stores, reinforcing its status as a must-visit destination for high-end consumers [5]

Group 1: Hong Kong Consumer Services Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of capturing certainty and focusing on marginal improvements in the Hong Kong consumer services sector for 2026 [2][8] - Macau gaming revenue shows resilience, with October gross gaming revenue increasing by 16% year-on-year, reaching the highest monthly record post-pandemic, driven by relaxed visa policies and events like concerts [2][8] - The report highlights the growth in VIP gaming revenue, which increased by 29% year-on-year, recovering to 54% of 2019 levels, while mass gaming revenue grew by 7% year-on-year, up 15% compared to 2019 [2][8] - The current EV/EBITDA valuation for the industry is at a low of 9 times, indicating potential for investment [2][8] - Recommended stocks include Galaxy Entertainment, MGM China, and Sands China [2][8] Group 2: Online Travel Sector - Online travel companies are experiencing revenue growth that outpaces the overall travel market, benefiting from increased online penetration and a focus on leisure travel rather than business travel [2][8] - Ctrip and Tongcheng Travel have not been adversely affected by new competitors, with improved marketing efficiency and higher growth rates in outbound and pure overseas travel segments [2][8] Group 3: Restaurant Sector - The restaurant sector faces fundamental pressures but continues to trend towards increased chain penetration, with significant elasticity expected if consumer sentiment improves [3][9] - The report recommends focusing on marginal changes in companies, highlighting ready-to-drink tea brands like Gu Ming and Mi Xue, as well as franchise models in lower-tier markets like Guo Quan [3][9] - Notable companies with strong shareholder returns include Yum China, which achieved record net openings for KFC and Pizza Hut in the third quarter [3][9] Group 4: Higher Education Sector - The report discusses the maturation of conditions for profit-oriented classification management in higher education, with expectations for a turnaround in the fortunes of higher education companies [4][13] - Recent policy developments in Guangdong province regarding private higher education classification management are anticipated to be followed by other provinces, enhancing the operational asset rights of listed private higher education companies [4][14] - The report predicts that after five years of quality improvement investments, the operational efficiency of higher education companies is expected to gradually recover, with a focus on quality enhancement as a regulatory goal [5][15] Group 5: Dividend Returns in Higher Education - The report anticipates a resumption of expansion for higher education companies once quality standards are met, leading to revenue growth and valuation increases [6][16] - With a current payout ratio of 30% and low valuation multiples, some higher education companies are expected to offer dividend yields exceeding 9%, providing a good margin of safety [6][16] - Recommended stocks include Yuhua Education, Zhongjiao Holdings, New Higher Education Group, and others [6][16] Group 6: Investment Analysis in Higher Education - The report suggests focusing on Hong Kong higher education companies, as the potential for profit-oriented classification is expected to revive expansion dynamics [20][31] - The report also highlights the positive performance of autumn enrollment data for K12 education companies, indicating strong brand appeal among students [20][31] - Recommendations include New Oriental, TAL Education, and others, with a particular emphasis on vocational education companies like China Oriental Education [20][31]