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Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-bank sector, particularly in insurance and securities, suggesting a "Recommended" rating for key companies in these sectors [3][41]. Core Insights - The report highlights a reduction in the preset interest rates for life insurance products, with ordinary life insurance at 2.0%, participating insurance at 1.75%, and universal insurance at 1.0%. This adjustment is expected to optimize the liability structure of insurance companies and promote a shift towards non-guaranteed income products [1][3]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is focused on stabilizing the capital market and enhancing market vitality through reforms, which is anticipated to boost investor confidence and market performance [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the positive impact of recent monetary policies, including interest rate cuts, which are expected to enhance market sentiment and support the valuation recovery of quality listed companies [3][41]. Summary by Sections Market Review - Major indices showed positive performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 1.67% and the Shenzhen Component Index up by 2.33% during the week [7]. - The non-bank financial sector saw a mixed performance, with the securities index rising by 4.82% [7][8]. Securities Sector - The report notes that the total trading volume in the A-share market reached 10.66 trillion yuan, with a daily average trading volume of 1.78 trillion yuan, reflecting a 14.20% increase week-on-week [16]. - The IPO underwriting scale for the year reached 560.64 billion yuan, while refinancing underwriting amounted to 8050.88 billion yuan [16][18]. Insurance Sector - The report indicates that the life insurance premium growth rate for major companies like China Life and Ping An Life has shown positive trends, with significant increases in premium income [24][25]. - The adjustment of preset interest rates is expected to lower the liability costs for insurance companies, enhancing their financial stability [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on key insurance companies such as China Pacific Insurance, Sunshine Insurance, and Ping An Insurance, as well as leading securities firms like CITIC Securities and Huatai Securities [41][42]. - It also highlights potential benefits for non-bank institutions from the implementation of stablecoin regulations and cross-border payment innovations [3][41].

Core Viewpoint - The China Insurance Industry Association has set the current predetermined interest rate for ordinary life insurance products at 1.99%, marking a decrease from the previous rate of 2.13% established in April 2023, indicating a trend of declining interest rates in the insurance sector [1][2] Group 1: Interest Rate Adjustments - The new research value for ordinary life insurance products is 1.99%, which is 25 basis points lower than the current predetermined rate of 2.5% [1] - Major insurance companies, including China Life, Taiping Life, Ping An Life, and ICBC-AXA Life, have announced adjustments to their predetermined rates, setting the maximum for ordinary life insurance products at 2.0%, for participating products at 1.75%, and for universal life products at 1.0% [1][2] Group 2: Impact on Insurance Products - The reduction in predetermined rates for ordinary and universal life insurance products is by 50 basis points, while the participating products see a decrease of 25 basis points, which is expected to stabilize future product adjustments and consumer expectations [2] - The shift towards floating income products is accelerating, with life insurance companies increasing their focus on developing participating products and launching new offerings [2] Group 3: Strategic Implications - The core rationale behind lowering the predetermined interest rates is to align the liability costs of insurance companies with the actual yield capabilities of their assets, thereby mitigating interest rate risk and ensuring solvency [2][3] - The implementation of a dynamic adjustment mechanism for predetermined rates is crucial for managing liability costs and expectations within the industry, with most companies prepared for a transition to new products by the end of August [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the insurance sector [2]. Core Insights - The PCE-ROCE valuation system is introduced to better reflect the true value of insurance companies under new standards, addressing the limitations of the traditional P/EV system [6][47]. - The report identifies that companies like China Pacific Insurance and China Life Insurance are significantly undervalued in the A-share market, while in the H-share market, China Pacific, China Life, and Sunshine Insurance are also notably undervalued [6][6]. - The insurance sector is characterized by dual benefits: companies possess dividend advantages, and leading firms like Ping An have strategically invested in high-dividend assets, which positively impacts their performance [6]. Summary by Sections 1. Introduction - The P/EV valuation system is under scrutiny due to a prolonged low interest rate environment, leading to a decline in the valuation levels of listed insurance companies [16][16]. - As of July 23, 2025, major insurance companies are trading at historical low P/EV ratios, indicating a potential valuation trap [16][16]. 2. PCE-ROCE Valuation System - The PCE-ROCE system incorporates comprehensive equity (CE) and return on comprehensive equity (ROCE) to provide a more accurate valuation framework [47][48]. - The system aims to mitigate the volatility associated with traditional valuation methods by integrating net assets and contract service margins [6][47]. 3. Comparison with PIEV - The PCE-ROCE system is deemed more effective in reflecting the true value of insurance companies in a low interest rate environment compared to the PIEV system, which relies heavily on long-term investment return assumptions [8][8]. - The report highlights that the PCE-ROCE system offers a balanced valuation approach by considering both net assets and contract service margins [8][8]. 4. Profitability Analysis of Listed Insurance Companies - The report evaluates the profitability of insurance policies under the new standards, focusing on contract service margins (CSM) and new business contract service margins (NBCSM) [8][8]. - A scoring system is established to assess the performance of listed insurance companies based on various profitability indicators, with AIA, PICC, and CPIC scoring the highest [8][8]. 5. Main Conclusions and Investment Recommendations - The report concludes that the insurance sector presents significant investment opportunities, particularly in companies that are undervalued and have strong dividend policies [6][6]. - Recommended companies for investment include New China Life, Ping An, AIA, China Life, China Pacific, and China People’s Insurance [6][6].

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry is undergoing a significant adjustment in predetermined interest rates for various insurance products, with the maximum rates for ordinary life insurance set to decrease to 2%, dividend insurance to 1.75%, and universal insurance to 1.0%, reflecting a downward trend in market interest rates and regulatory requirements [1][10][13]. Summary by Sections Predetermined Interest Rate Adjustments - Major insurance companies have announced a reduction in the maximum predetermined interest rates for their products, with ordinary life insurance dropping to 2%, dividend insurance to 1.75%, and universal insurance to 1.0%, marking declines of 50, 25, and 50 basis points respectively [1][10][13]. - The current maximum predetermined interest rate for ordinary life insurance was previously 2.5%, which has now reached the threshold for adjustment due to being 25 basis points above the research value [5][12]. Market Trends and Regulatory Impact - The downward adjustment in predetermined interest rates is a response to the ongoing decline in long-term market interest rates, with the 5-year loan market quoted rate (LPR) at 3.5% and 10-year government bond yields around 1.7% [14]. - Regulatory changes, including the introduction of IFRS 17 and the second-generation solvency regulatory framework, have increased the transparency of product pricing and financial reporting, prompting insurance companies to adopt more prudent actuarial practices [14]. Sales Strategies and Market Dynamics - The reduction in predetermined interest rates is expected to impact the attractiveness of insurance products to consumers, potentially leading to increased sales challenges for insurance companies [19]. - Companies are shifting towards dividend insurance products, which have seen a smaller reduction in predetermined interest rates, making them more appealing in the current market environment [15][16]. - The industry is experiencing a transition towards dividend insurance as companies prepare for the new rate adjustments, with many already offering products with predetermined interest rates as low as 1.5% [18]. Consumer Behavior and Market Response - Historical patterns suggest that prior to rate adjustments, there is often a surge in sales driven by consumer perceptions of impending changes, although this trend may be less pronounced in the current environment due to increased consumer rationality and transparency in pricing [18]. - The overall sales environment for life insurance companies has been challenging, exacerbated by previous market demand being pulled forward due to speculative sales tactics [19].

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry in China is facing a significant adjustment in the predetermined interest rates for insurance products, with the current research value dropping to 1.99%, leading to a likely reduction in the maximum predetermined interest rates for various insurance products [3][6][10]. Group 1: Predetermined Interest Rate Adjustments - The predetermined interest rate for ordinary life insurance products is set to decrease from 2.5% to 2.0%, while the maximum for participating insurance will be reduced to 1.75% and for universal insurance to 1.0% [5][6]. - The adjustment follows a trend of declining predetermined interest rates, with previous values recorded at 2.34% and 2.13% in the last two quarters [6][7]. - Major insurance companies, including China Life, Ping An Life, and China Pacific Life, have announced adjustments to their insurance products' predetermined interest rates in response to the new research values [4][5]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Strategies - The insurance industry is transitioning towards participating insurance products, as the lower predetermined interest rates make these products more appealing compared to ordinary and universal insurance [8][9]. - There is an expectation of a "炒停售" (speculative stop-sale) phenomenon, where companies may create urgency around product availability to boost short-term sales, although this is anticipated to be less intense than in previous years [9][10]. - The overall sales environment for life insurance companies has become challenging due to the adjustments in product strategies and the previous market demand being somewhat exhausted [10].

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry is preparing for a significant shift towards dividend insurance products as the maximum guaranteed interest rates for life insurance are set to decline, reaching historical lows [2][4][10]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Changes - The maximum guaranteed interest rate for ordinary life insurance products has been lowered from 2.5% to 2.0%, and for dividend insurance from 2.0% to 1.75%, effective August 31 [2][3][4]. - This adjustment is a response to the current research value of 1.99%, which is below the previous quarter's 2.13%, triggering the need for a rate cut [3][4]. Industry Response - Major insurers like China Life, Ping An, and China Pacific have announced the rate adjustments, indicating a likely industry-wide response [2][3]. - Insurers have been preparing for this change, with product managers stating they have multiple product plans ready to adapt to the new rates [2][8]. Market Dynamics - The decline in guaranteed interest rates is expected to impact the cash value of ordinary savings-type products negatively, while it may lead to increased premiums for critical illness insurance [6][10]. - The shift towards dividend insurance is seen as a strategy to lower the rigid liability costs for insurers, as these products offer variable returns that can be more attractive in a low-interest environment [10][11]. Future Trends - The proportion of dividend insurance in total premiums is expected to rise significantly, with estimates suggesting it could exceed 50% across the industry [11][12]. - Insurers are focusing on enhancing market sensitivity and operational efficiency to navigate the challenges posed by the declining interest rates [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the insurance sector [2]. Core Insights - The P/EV valuation system is facing challenges in a persistently low interest rate environment, leading to significant adjustments in risk discount rates and investment return assumptions, which have resulted in a decline in NBV and EV growth [5][9]. - The introduction of the PCE-ROCE valuation system aims to provide a more comprehensive reflection of the true value of insurance companies by incorporating comprehensive equity (CE) and return on comprehensive equity (ROCE) [31][43]. - The report identifies that A-share listed insurance companies, particularly China Pacific Insurance and China Life Insurance, are relatively undervalued according to the PCE-ROCE valuation system [5][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Introduction - The P/EV valuation system shows signs of "failure" as the valuation levels for A-share listed insurance companies continue to decline, with significant pressure on new business value growth due to macroeconomic factors [9][14]. 2. PCE-ROCE Valuation System Proposal - The PCE-ROCE system introduces comprehensive equity (CE) and ROCE to better reflect the value of insurance companies under new accounting standards [31][43]. - The system aims to address the limitations of the P/EV system by providing a more stable and predictable valuation framework [5][31]. 3. Comparison of Valuation Systems - The PCE-ROCE system is more effective in reflecting the true value of insurance companies in a low interest rate environment compared to the traditional P/EV system [5][31]. - The report highlights that the P/CE ratio provides a better fit and reflects the comprehensive value of insurance companies compared to P/B and P/EV ratios [5][31]. 4. Analysis of Insurance Companies' Policy Profitability - The report establishes a profitability evaluation system for listed insurance companies based on CSM and NBCSM, identifying key performance indicators to assess profitability [5][31]. - The scoring system ranks companies based on their CSM performance, with AIA, PICC, and CPIC scoring the highest [5][31]. 5. Main Conclusions and Investment Recommendations - The report concludes that several A-share and H-share listed insurance companies are undervalued, suggesting a focus on companies like New China Life, Ping An, AIA, China Life, CPIC, and PICC for potential investment opportunities [5][29].

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry is adjusting the guaranteed interest rates for life insurance products in response to the ongoing decline in market interest rates, which is expected to promote a more sustainable development model for the industry [1]. Group 1: Interest Rate Adjustments - The current research value for the guaranteed interest rate of ordinary life insurance products is 1.99% [1]. - Traditional life insurance products' guaranteed interest rate will be reduced from 2.5% to 2.0% [1]. - For investment-type products, the guaranteed interest rate cap for participating insurance will be adjusted from 2% to 1.75%, and for universal insurance from 1.5% to 1.0% [1]. Group 2: Industry Response - Major insurance companies such as China Life, Ping An Life, Taikang Life, and ICBC-AXA Life have announced these adjustments [1]. - Insurance companies are required to complete the transition between old and new products by August 31 [1]. - Industry insiders believe that timely adjustments to the guaranteed interest rates in a low-interest-rate environment will help establish a more sustainable development model for the insurance sector [1].

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry is experiencing a reduction in the preset interest rates for life insurance products due to the ongoing decline in market interest rates, which is expected to promote a more sustainable development model for the industry [1] Summary by Category Interest Rate Adjustments - The preset interest rate for traditional life insurance products has been lowered by 50 basis points (BP) from 2.5% to 2.0% [1] - The guaranteed interest rate ceiling for participating insurance products has been adjusted from 2% to 1.75% [1] - The guaranteed interest rate for universal insurance has been reduced from 1.5% to 1.0% [1] Industry Response - Major insurance companies such as China Life, Ping An Life, Taikang Life, and ICBC-AXA Life have announced these adjustments in their preset interest rates [1] - Insurance companies are required to complete the transition between old and new products by August 31 [1] Market Context - The current research value for the preset interest rate of ordinary life insurance products is reported at 1.99% [1] - Industry experts indicate that timely adjustments to preset interest rates in a low-interest-rate environment will help the industry establish a more sustainable development model [1]