Core Viewpoint - China Overseas Property (02669) expects overall revenue to increase by approximately 5-7% in the fiscal year 2025 compared to the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, aligning with the company's annual development expectations despite facing severe challenges in the economic environment [1] Group 1: Revenue and Growth - The company anticipates a revenue increase of about 5-7% for fiscal year 2025 [1] - The management has adapted its operational strategies in response to market changes, allowing for revenue growth despite external pressures [1] Group 2: Profitability Challenges - During the transformation period, significant resource investments have been made, leading to a delayed return on investment, which has impacted profit generation speed [1] - Gross profit and profit attributable to ordinary shareholders are expected to decline by approximately 3-4% and 9-10%, respectively, compared to fiscal year 2024 [1] Group 3: Sector-Specific Issues - The increase in research and development costs for non-residential value-added services has resulted in initial project losses [1] - Intense price competition has led to a general decline in gross margins for other engineering-related businesses [1] - Traditional property management is facing challenges due to price reductions and a slowdown in contract conversion rates caused by the downturn in the real estate sector, contributing to lower gross margins [1] Group 4: New Business Developments - Despite unprecedented industry challenges, the company's newly expanded urban operation business has developed as planned, achieving both revenue and profit growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Overseas Property (02669.HK) expects overall revenue to increase by approximately 5-7% for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, compared to the fiscal year 2024, aligning with the company's annual development expectations despite facing significant economic challenges [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company anticipates a revenue increase of about 5-7% for the fiscal year 2025 compared to 2024 [1] - Gross profit and profit attributable to ordinary shareholders are projected to decline by approximately 3-4% and 9-10%, respectively, due to substantial resource investment during the transformation period [1] - The increase in research and development costs for smart engineering services has led to the first recorded loss for the project, while other engineering business gross margins have generally decreased due to intense price competition [1] Group 2: Market Challenges - The traditional property management sector is facing challenges from price reductions and a slowdown in contract conversion speed due to the downturn in the real estate industry, resulting in a decline in gross margins [1] - Despite unprecedented challenges in the industry, the company's newly expanded urban operation business has achieved revenue and profit growth as expected [1]

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責， 對其準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何 部份內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 CHINA OVERSEAS PROPERTY HOLDINGS LIMITED 中 海 物 業 集 團 有 限 公 司 （ 於 開 曼 群 島 註 冊 成 立 的 有 限 公 司 ） （股份代號：2669） 內幕消息 2025財年財務表現更新 本公告乃中海物業集團有限公司（「本公司」，連同其附屬公司，統稱為「本集團」） 根據香港聯合交易所有限公司證券上市規則（「上市規則」）第13.09(2)條及香港法 例第571章證券及期貨條例第XIVA部的內幕消息條文(定義見上市規則)而作出。 本公司董事會（「董事會」）謹此通知本公司股東(「股東」)及潛在投資者，基於 董事會對本集團截至2025年12月31日止財政年度（「2025財年」）之未經審核綜合 管理賬目及目前可得資料所作之初步審閱，本集團於2025財年整體收益較截至2024年 12月31日止財政年度（「2024財年」* ）上升約5-7%，符合本集團全年發展 ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that the profitability of Chinese property management companies is expected to increase by 10% year-on-year in 2025, which is 12% higher than market expectations, but shows a slowdown compared to growth rates of 15% in 2024 and 12% in the first half of 2025 due to declining cash collection ratios and a drop in value-added service revenue and profit margins [1] Company Performance Expectations - Among major property management companies, Greentown Service (02869) is expected to outperform, followed by China Resources Mixc Lifestyle (01209), Poly Property (06049), China Overseas Property (02669), Wanwu Cloud (02602), and Country Garden Services (06098) [1] - The top picks are China Resources Mixc Lifestyle and Greentown Service [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting the potential for quality real estate companies and commercial properties [3][29]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the real estate sector in China has undergone significant adjustments, with recent central government directives emphasizing the stabilization of the real estate market. The report notes a positive shift in industry sentiment and anticipates favorable policy developments in the future [3][29]. - The report identifies attractive valuation levels for quality companies, with some firms' price-to-book (PB) ratios at historical lows, making them appealing investment opportunities [3][29]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transactions - In the week of January 17-23, 2026, new home transactions in 34 key cities totaled 1.727 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.6%. However, year-on-year comparisons show a decline of 38.2% for January [4][7]. - The report notes that first and second-tier cities experienced a 0.6% decrease in transactions, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a 17.7% increase [4][7]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - For the same week, second-hand home transactions in 13 cities totaled 1.32 million square meters, down 0.2% week-on-week. Year-to-date figures show a 9.6% decline compared to the previous January [13][29]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of January 17-23, 2026, 15 cities saw a total of 260,000 square meters of new supply, with a sales-to-supply ratio of 2.69 times. The total available residential area in these cities was 88.964 million square meters, down 0.5% from the previous week [23][29]. Policy and News Tracking - The report highlights ongoing government efforts to promote urban renewal, with various cities actively developing urban renewal plans. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasizes the importance of high-quality real estate development and the need for tailored policies [29][33]. - Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a 17.2% year-on-year decline in real estate development investment for 2025, with new residential sales area down 8.7% [29][33]. Company Announcements - Several real estate companies have released their expected net profit for 2025, with notable losses projected for companies like Jianfa Holdings and Jindi Group, while Poly Development anticipates a profit of 1.03 billion yuan [37][29]. - Financing activities are active among various firms, with China Overseas Development issuing bonds totaling 25 billion yuan, and Vanke's bond extension proposal receiving approval [37][29].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that the overall performance of covered mainland property management companies is expected to meet expectations, with profit growth in the low single digits, but increasing differentiation among companies [1][2] Group 1: Profit Growth Expectations - Greentown Service (02869) and China Resources Mixc Lifestyle (01209) are expected to achieve the highest profit growth, with a year-on-year increase of 10% to 15% [1] - Poly Property (06049) and China Overseas Property (02669) are projected to have mid-single-digit growth [1] - Sunac Services (01516) may continue to face a decline in core profits due to issues with receivables from past projects and non-core business burdens [1] Group 2: Cash Collection and Market Dynamics - Leading companies continue to benefit from third-party market consolidation, but weak cash collection remains a major obstacle [2] - Despite intensified competition, most property management companies have achieved their annual expansion goals, highlighting significant long-term market potential [2] - The cash collection ratio decreased by 1 to 2 percentage points year-on-year due to reduced resident prepayments and an increase in the proportion of high vacancy projects delivered after 2022 [2] Group 3: Profitability and Cash Flow - Short-term profit margins for mainland property management and service companies remain under pressure [2] - Leading project management companies are expected to exit low-quality and non-core projects to optimize their business portfolios, maintaining annual operating cash flow at around 1 times profit [2] - The reduction of third-party receivables continues to be a key driver of profit differentiation among property management companies [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for quality real estate companies and commercial real estate [2][3]. Core Insights - The real estate sector is experiencing significant pressure on both investment and sales, with a notable decline in investment and sales figures for 2025 [2][3]. - The report anticipates a slow recovery in investment, with adjustments made to the 2026 forecasts for new starts, completions, and overall investment [2][3]. - The sales sector is currently in a bottoming phase, with expectations for policy support to drive demand recovery, although supply constraints may limit this recovery [2][3]. Investment Side Summary - For the year 2025, total real estate development investment reached 828.8 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 17.2%, with December alone showing a drop of 35.8% [3][20]. - New starts decreased by 20.4% year-on-year, while completions fell by 18.1% [3][20]. - The report adjusts the 2026 forecast for new starts to -7.7% (originally -4.6%) and overall investment to -9.1% (originally -7.5%) [2][20]. Sales Side Summary - The total sales area for 2025 was 880 million square meters, down 8.7% year-on-year, with December sales area declining by 15.6% [21][31]. - The average sales price for properties decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, with December's average price showing a 9.5% decline [30][31]. - The report revises the 2026 sales forecast to a decrease of 7.6% for sales area and 9.4% for sales revenue [35][31]. Funding Side Summary - Total funding sources for real estate development in 2025 amounted to 930 billion yuan, down 13.4% year-on-year, with December showing a 26.7% decline [36][37]. - Domestic loans saw a significant drop of 45% in December, while self-raised funds decreased by 15.7% [36][37]. - The report suggests that funding sources are expected to gradually improve due to ongoing policy relaxations [39].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector, focusing on high-quality real estate companies and commercial real estate [3][4][21]. Core Insights - The investment side of the real estate sector remains weak, with a year-on-year decline of 17.2% in total real estate development investment for 2025, and a significant drop of 35.8% in December alone [4][21]. - The sales side shows a narrowing decline in sales area, with a year-on-year decrease of 8.7% for 2025, and a 15.6% drop in December [22][32]. - The funding side indicates a continued decline in funding sources, with a 13.4% year-on-year decrease in total funding for real estate development in 2025, and a sharp 26.7% drop in December [37]. Summary by Sections Investment Side - Total real estate development investment for 2025 reached 828.8 billion yuan, down 17.2% year-on-year, with December's investment declining by 35.8% [4][21]. - New construction area decreased by 20.4% year-on-year, with December showing a 19.4% decline [20][21]. - The report adjusts 2026 forecasts, predicting a 7.7% decline in new construction and a 9.1% drop in investment [21]. Sales Side - The total sales area for 2025 was 880 million square meters, down 8.7% year-on-year, with December's sales area declining by 15.6% [22][32]. - The total sales revenue for 2025 was 8.4 trillion yuan, reflecting a 12.6% year-on-year decrease, with December's sales revenue down 23.6% [24][32]. - The average selling price of commercial housing for 2025 was 9,527 yuan per square meter, down 4.3% year-on-year [31][32]. Funding Side - Total funding sources for real estate development in 2025 amounted to 9.3 trillion yuan, a decrease of 13.4% year-on-year, with December's funding sources down 26.7% [37]. - Domestic loans saw a year-on-year decline of 7.3%, with a significant drop of 45% in December [37]. - The report anticipates that funding sources will gradually improve due to ongoing policy relaxations [37].

Core Insights - The article highlights the net inflow and outflow of funds in the Hong Kong stock market, with Xiaomi Group, Tencent Holdings, and China Construction Bank leading in net inflows, while the Yingfu Fund, Hang Seng China Enterprises, and Southern Hang Seng Technology experienced the highest net outflows [1] Group 1: Net Inflows - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) recorded a net inflow of 1.07 billion, representing a 16.36% increase in its closing price [2] - Tencent Holdings (00700) saw a net inflow of 863 million, with a 7.49% increase in its closing price [2] - China Construction Bank (00939) had a net inflow of 699 million, with a significant 41.06% increase in its closing price [2] Group 2: Net Outflows - Yingfu Fund (02800) experienced the largest net outflow of 6.289 billion, reflecting a -31.44% change in its closing price [2] - Hang Seng China Enterprises (02828) had a net outflow of 2.880 billion, with a -17.89% change in its closing price [2] - Southern Hang Seng Technology (03033) faced a net outflow of 1.289 billion, showing a -11.37% change in its closing price [2] Group 3: Net Inflow Ratios - 361 Degrees (01361) led with a net inflow ratio of 74.40%, with a net inflow of 8.9117 million [3] - BRILLIANCE CHI (01114) followed with a net inflow ratio of 64.04%, amounting to a net inflow of 36.4910 million [3] - Qin Port Co. (03369) had a net inflow ratio of 61.05%, with a net inflow of 846,600 [3] Group 4: Net Outflow Ratios - Wisdom Hong Kong 100 (02825) had a net outflow ratio of -100.00%, with a net outflow of -18,200 [3] - Stone Pharmaceutical Group (02005) recorded a net outflow ratio of -68.86%, with a net outflow of -14.1501 million [3] - Dexion Shipping (02510) experienced a net outflow ratio of -53.53%, with a net outflow of -10.0204 million [3]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the real estate sector, suggesting that the industry is entering a phase of stable structure and profitability, with a focus on quality over quantity in land acquisition [61]. Core Insights - The 2025 land market is characterized by a "quality over quantity" approach, with a significant decrease in land supply and transaction volumes, while average transaction prices have increased [25][61]. - Central state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and leading real estate companies are becoming more active in land acquisition, with a notable increase in land acquisition intensity among major firms [48][61]. - The average premium rate for land transactions in national sample cities has risen, indicating strong competition for prime land in first and second-tier cities [31][61]. Summary by Sections Land Market Overview - In 2025, the total land supply in national sample cities decreased by 16.9% year-on-year to 1,172.42 million square meters, with first, second, and third-fourth tier cities experiencing declines of 27.6%, 6.4%, and 19.2% respectively [25][28]. - Land transaction volumes also fell by 12.5% to 986.63 million square meters, with transaction values dropping by 11.4% to RMB 28,488 billion, while the average transaction floor price increased by 3.4% to RMB 2,887 per square meter [25][28]. Premium Rates and City Focus - The average premium rate for land transactions in 2025 was 5.3%, up 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, with first-tier cities averaging 10.7% and second-tier cities at 6.2% [31][61]. - Major cities like Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Chengdu saw premium rates exceeding 10%, indicating a strong demand for quality land [31][61]. Investment Strategies of Key Players - In 2025, 12 real estate companies exceeded RMB 10 billion in land acquisition, with 11 being central SOEs, highlighting the dominance of state-owned enterprises in the market [48][61]. - The land acquisition intensity for the top 100 real estate companies was 0.29, reflecting a 70.6% increase year-on-year, with Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group leading at 81.9% [48][61]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on key players in the real estate sector, including Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and China Resources Land, among others, as they are well-positioned to benefit from the current market dynamics [61][65].