展望全年，该行预计公司归母净利润有望实现按年正增长，但可能难以做到双位数增长；预计公司或将 继续推动派息率稳中有进，逐步提高股东回报。考虑到公司持续退出低质项目，以及增值服务相对承压 的经营表现，该行将2025至2027年每股盈利分别下调6%、10%、13%，至0.48元、0.52元、0.57元，目 标价从7.74港元微降至7.36港元。 华泰证券发表研究报告指出，中海物业今年上半年实现营收70.9亿元，按年增4%；归母净利润7.7亿 元，按年增4%，低于公司指引(全年归母净利润双位数增长)；公司营收增速有所放缓，主要由于继续退 出低质项目，以及增值服务的拖累。该行看好公司继续实现有质量的稳步增长，逐步提升派息率，维 持"买入"评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities reports that China Overseas Property achieved revenue of 7.09 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 770 million yuan, also up 4% year-on-year, but below the company's guidance for double-digit growth in annual net profit [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's revenue growth has slowed down primarily due to the continued exit from low-quality projects and the drag from value-added services [1] - The firm expects the company to continue achieving quality steady growth and gradually increase its dividend payout ratio [1] - For the full year, the firm anticipates that the company's net profit attributable to shareholders is likely to achieve positive year-on-year growth, but may struggle to reach double-digit growth [1] Group 2: Earnings Forecast - The firm has adjusted the earnings per share forecasts for 2025 to 2027 downwards by 6%, 10%, and 13% respectively, to 0.48 yuan, 0.52 yuan, and 0.57 yuan [1] - The target price has been slightly reduced from 7.74 HKD to 7.36 HKD [1] Group 3: Shareholder Returns - The company is expected to continue promoting a steady increase in its dividend payout ratio, gradually enhancing shareholder returns [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 7.09 billion RMB in H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, while the net profit increased by 4.3% to 769 million RMB [1]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its business structure and project governance, with a significant portion of its new managed area coming from independent third parties [2]. - The gross profit margin has improved, with the overall margin rising from 16.8% to 17.0%, driven by effective cost control measures [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 7.09 billion RMB, a 3.7% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 769 million RMB, up 4.3% [1]. - The gross profit margin improved to 17.0%, with property management services' margin rising to 15.5% and household value-added services' margin increasing to 35.2% [1][2]. Business Expansion - The company added 31.8 million square meters of managed area in H1 2025, with 84% coming from independent third parties, showcasing strong market expansion capabilities [2]. - The average price per square meter remained high at 71 RMB, indicating robust market demand [2]. Dividend Policy - The board proposed an interim dividend of HKD 0.09 per share and a special dividend of HKD 0.01, resulting in a total dividend of HKD 0.10 per share, with a payout ratio of approximately 39.8% [3]. Future Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 14.82 billion RMB, 15.63 billion RMB, and 16.40 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.67 billion RMB, 1.80 billion RMB, and 1.94 billion RMB [3][4].

Group 1: Central-Local Fiscal Relations - The report discusses the historical, current, and future analysis of central-local fiscal relations, indicating that reforms may focus on cultivating local tax sources, moderately centralizing fiscal responsibilities, and promoting fiscal system reforms below the provincial level [5]. - It highlights that the macro tax burden is decreasing and land finance is waning, making it essential to cultivate new tax sources for local governments, with a projected increase in local revenue of approximately 209.3 billion yuan from consumption tax reforms [5]. - The report suggests that the central government may take on more fiscal responsibilities in areas with broader impacts, such as higher education, public health, and social security, to alleviate local fiscal pressures [5]. Group 2: Computer Industry - Cambrian Technology - Cambrian Technology reported a significant revenue increase of 4,348% year-on-year for H1 2025, reaching 28.81 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.038 billion yuan, reflecting a 296% increase [9][10]. - The company maintained a gross margin of 55.88% in Q2 2025, indicating stable profitability despite rapid revenue growth, with expectations for strong cash flow and inventory recovery in Q3 [10][11]. - The report anticipates that the AI wave will significantly boost demand for computing power, with Cambrian positioned to benefit from increased domestic market share in the face of geopolitical challenges [11][12]. Group 3: Food and Beverage Industry - Nongfu Spring - Nongfu Spring reported a revenue of 25.622 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15.6%, with a net profit of 7.622 billion yuan, up 22.1% [20]. - The company is expected to continue recovering market share in packaged water and is focused on innovation in beverage products, projecting net profits of 14.6 billion yuan by 2027 [20]. Group 4: Environmental Sector - Huahong Technology - Huahong Technology experienced significant profit growth in H1 2025, driven by improved cost control and the recovery of rare earth prices, with expectations for rapid growth as new capacities come online [21]. - The report maintains a "buy" rating, emphasizing the company's strong position in the recycling of rare earths and the anticipated demand from the automotive sector [21]. Group 5: Real Estate Sector - China Overseas Property - China Overseas Property reported a revenue increase of 3.7% in H1 2025, with a net profit of 7.69 billion yuan, reflecting a 4.3% growth [24]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its service structure and expanding its management area, with expectations for continued growth in the property management sector [25].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight increase in net profit for 2025H1, with a dividend payout ratio raised to 40%, indicating stable growth despite market expectations being slightly missed [1][4]. Financial Performance - In 2025H1, the company achieved operating revenue of 7.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [1] - Gross profit reached 1.2 billion yuan, up 4.7% year-on-year [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 770 million yuan, reflecting a 4.3% increase year-on-year, slightly below market expectations [1] - Basic earnings per share were 0.23 yuan, also up 4.3% year-on-year [1] - The company's gross margin and net profit margin were 17.0% and 10.8%, respectively, with slight year-on-year increases of 0.2 percentage points and 0.1 percentage points [1] - Return on equity (ROE) was 28.8%, down 5.0 percentage points year-on-year [1] Project Management and Area - The managed area increased by 1.2% year-on-year, reaching 436 million square meters by the end of 2025H1 [2] - Of the newly added managed area of 31.8 million square meters, 84% came from third parties [2] - The company’s managed area composition included 60.9% from related parties and 39.1% from third parties [2] - The company’s new external contracts decreased by 14% year-on-year, with a contract value of 980 million yuan, down 5% year-on-year [2] Revenue Breakdown - Property management services generated revenue of 5.6 billion yuan, up 8.3% year-on-year [3] - Non-residential value-added services and residential value-added services saw revenue declines of 5.9% and 11.6%, respectively [3] - The gross margins for property management services, non-residential value-added services, and residential value-added services were 15.5%, 13.4%, and 35.2%, with year-on-year changes of +0.1, -0.7, and +5.0 percentage points, respectively [3] - The company is actively expanding into various sectors, including urban services, office buildings, hospitals, financial institutions, and government agencies [3] Investment Analysis - The company maintains a "buy" rating due to steady growth in performance and an increased dividend rate [4] - The net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downwards to 1.64 billion, 1.77 billion, and 1.94 billion yuan, respectively [4] - The current price corresponds to a 2025 PE ratio of 10.7X, with strong pricing power in property fees and significant potential in value-added services [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported stable growth in its financial performance for the first half of 2025, with a revenue of 7.09 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.7% and a profit attributable to ordinary shareholders of 770 million yuan, up 4.3% [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 7.09 billion yuan in H1 2025, with property management services contributing 5.6 billion yuan (up 8.3%), while non-residential value-added services generated 860 million yuan (down 5.9%), residential value-added services brought in 610 million yuan (down 11.6%), and parking space sales accounted for 30 million yuan (down 62.9%) [1] - The overall gross margin for H1 was 17%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the selling and administrative expense ratio was 2.1%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points [1] Market Expansion and Management Structure - The company added 31.8 million square meters in new orders during H1 2025, with 84% coming from independent third parties, and the total value of new contracts reached 2.26 billion yuan [2] - The managed area at the end of H1 increased by a moderate net of 5 million square meters to 440 million square meters, with 60.9% of the managed area coming from China State Construction and China Overseas Group, and 39.1% from independent third parties [2] Investment Recommendations - The company has slightly adjusted its EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 to 0.49 yuan (previously 0.51 yuan), 0.51 yuan (previously 0.56 yuan), and 0.54 yuan (previously 0.61 yuan), with current stock prices corresponding to P/E ratios of 11.0x, 10.4x, and 9.8x respectively [3] - The company is recognized as a leading state-owned enterprise in property management, with strong financial stability and a focus on quality and cost control, which supports ongoing operational performance [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 7.09 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 770 million yuan, also up 4%, but below the company's guidance for double-digit growth for the full year [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's basic property management revenue grew by 8% year-on-year, achieving stable growth despite a net increase in managed area of only 5 million square meters compared to the end of 2024, due to the exit from low-quality projects [1] - The gross profit margin increased by 0.2 percentage points to 17.0%, with the basic property management and household value-added service gross margins rising by 0.1 and 5.0 percentage points to 15.5% and 35.2%, respectively [1] - The company plans to distribute an interim basic dividend of 0.09 HKD and a special dividend of 0.01 HKD, resulting in a total dividend payout ratio of 40% [2] Group 2: Market Strategy and Operations - The company faced a 5% year-on-year decline in new external contract value, totaling 980 million yuan, but showed improvement in project quality, with the average new external contract value for million-level projects increasing by 17% to 23.2 million yuan [2] - The company is focusing on urban operation sectors, with new external contract value for urban operations increasing by 60% to 620 million yuan [2] - The company continues to leverage its differentiated advantages in the Hong Kong and Macau regions, maintaining the top market share in Hong Kong property management [2] Group 3: Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to the ongoing exit from low-quality projects and pressure on value-added services, the company has revised its revenue forecasts, expecting EPS of 0.48, 0.52, and 0.57 yuan for 2025-2027, down 6%, 10%, and 13% from previous estimates [2] - The average PE ratio for comparable companies is projected at 16 times, while the company is considered to have a reasonable PE of 14 times, leading to a target price adjustment to 7.36 HKD from 7.74 HKD [2]

Core Viewpoint - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 7.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 770 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.3% [1] Financial Performance - The company's profit growth slightly outpaced revenue growth due to an increase in gross margin and a decrease in expense ratio. The gross margin for the first half of the year was 17.0%, up 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the combined expense ratio for sales, management, and finance was 2.2%, down 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The company declared an interim dividend and a special dividend totaling 10 Hong Kong cents, with a payout ratio of approximately 39%, an increase of 3.4 percentage points compared to the previous year, resulting in an annualized dividend yield of 3.33% [3] Business Expansion - The company actively expanded its urban operation business, with new project contract amounts reaching 625 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 60.3%. The proportion of urban operation contracts reached 64%, an increase of 26 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2] - The company increased its managed area by 31.8 million square meters in the first half of the year, with 84% coming from independent third parties and 59% from non-residential projects. The total managed area reached 436 million square meters by the end of June, an increase of 5 million square meters from the end of last year [2] Revenue Composition - Revenue from basic property management services increased to 5.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, accounting for 78.9% of total revenue, up 3.4 percentage points year-on-year. However, revenue from value-added services decreased due to weakened demand from developers and residents, with household and non-household value-added service revenues of 610 million yuan and 860 million yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year declines of 11.6% and 5.9% [2]

买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 08 月 25 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 5.85 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 9248 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 7.19/4.18 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 192.11 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 3,283.96 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0981 | 2025 年 08 月 26 日 中海物业 (02669) ——业绩小幅增长，分红率提升 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 上 市 公 司 房地产 财务数据及盈利预测 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 陈鹏 A0230521110002 chenpeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 陈鹏 (8621)23297818× chenpeng@swsresearch.com -5% 45% 95% 08/26 09/26 10/26 11/26 12/26 01/26 02/26 03/26 04/26 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Overseas Property (02669) reported a nearly 5% decline in stock price, with a current price of HKD 5.57 and a trading volume of HKD 362 million. The company announced its mid-year results for 2025, showing a 3.7% year-on-year increase in overall revenue to RMB 7.0895 billion, and a 4.7% increase in gross profit to RMB 1.2024 billion. The profit attributable to ordinary shareholders rose by 4.3% to RMB 769 million. The company plans to distribute an interim basic dividend of HKD 0.09 and a one-time special dividend of HKD 0.01 to celebrate its 10th anniversary of listing. However, Huatai Securities noted that the company's revenue growth has slowed, primarily due to the exit from low-quality projects and the drag from value-added services, while maintaining a stable dividend payout ratio. The firm remains optimistic about the company's ability to achieve steady growth and gradually increase the dividend payout ratio, maintaining a "buy" rating. For the full year, the company is expected to achieve positive year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to shareholders, but it may struggle to reach double-digit growth [1]. Financial Performance - Overall revenue increased by 3.7% year-on-year to RMB 7.0895 billion [1] - Gross profit rose by 4.7% year-on-year to RMB 1.2024 billion [1] - Profit attributable to ordinary shareholders increased by 4.3% to RMB 769 million [1] Dividend Distribution - The company plans to distribute an interim basic dividend of HKD 0.09 [1] - A one-time special dividend of HKD 0.01 will be distributed to celebrate the 10th anniversary of the company's listing [1] Market Outlook - Revenue growth has slowed due to the exit from low-quality projects and challenges in value-added services [1] - Huatai Securities maintains a "buy" rating, expecting steady growth and gradual increases in dividend payout [1] - Full-year net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to show positive year-on-year growth, but may not reach double-digit growth [1]