证券研究报告 | 2026年01月29日 中国平安（601318.SH） 价值增长，估值提升——"重估平安"系列之二 | 公司研究·公司快评  | |  | 非银金融·保险Ⅱ | 投资评级：优于大市（维持）  | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 孔祥 | 021-60375452 | kongxiang@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523060004 | | 证券分析师： | 王京灵 | 0755-22941150 | wangjingling@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980525070007 | 事项： 近年以来，平安持续推动负债端业务及价值转型，产品结构及渠道价值率得到显著提升，叠加近期地产风 险缓释，利好平安估值的进一步提升。 国信非银观点：我们认为负债端业务提质增效为中长期估值提升提供了持续动力，同时近期地产政策的放 松进一步解除估值端约束。因此我们维持公司 2025 年至 2027 年盈利预测，预计 2025 年至 2027 年公司 EPS 为 7.72/8.57/9.26 元/股，当前股价对应 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for quality real estate companies and commercial real estate [2][3]. Core Insights - The real estate sector is experiencing significant pressure on both investment and sales, with a notable decline in investment and sales figures for 2025 [2][3]. - The report anticipates a slow recovery in investment, with adjustments made to the 2026 forecasts for new starts, completions, and overall investment [2][3]. - The sales sector is currently in a bottoming phase, with expectations for policy support to drive demand recovery, although supply constraints may limit this recovery [2][3]. Investment Side Summary - For the year 2025, total real estate development investment reached 828.8 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 17.2%, with December alone showing a drop of 35.8% [3][20]. - New starts decreased by 20.4% year-on-year, while completions fell by 18.1% [3][20]. - The report adjusts the 2026 forecast for new starts to -7.7% (originally -4.6%) and overall investment to -9.1% (originally -7.5%) [2][20]. Sales Side Summary - The total sales area for 2025 was 880 million square meters, down 8.7% year-on-year, with December sales area declining by 15.6% [21][31]. - The average sales price for properties decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, with December's average price showing a 9.5% decline [30][31]. - The report revises the 2026 sales forecast to a decrease of 7.6% for sales area and 9.4% for sales revenue [35][31]. Funding Side Summary - Total funding sources for real estate development in 2025 amounted to 930 billion yuan, down 13.4% year-on-year, with December showing a 26.7% decline [36][37]. - Domestic loans saw a significant drop of 45% in December, while self-raised funds decreased by 15.7% [36][37]. - The report suggests that funding sources are expected to gradually improve due to ongoing policy relaxations [39].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector, focusing on high-quality real estate companies and commercial real estate [3][4][21]. Core Insights - The investment side of the real estate sector remains weak, with a year-on-year decline of 17.2% in total real estate development investment for 2025, and a significant drop of 35.8% in December alone [4][21]. - The sales side shows a narrowing decline in sales area, with a year-on-year decrease of 8.7% for 2025, and a 15.6% drop in December [22][32]. - The funding side indicates a continued decline in funding sources, with a 13.4% year-on-year decrease in total funding for real estate development in 2025, and a sharp 26.7% drop in December [37]. Summary by Sections Investment Side - Total real estate development investment for 2025 reached 828.8 billion yuan, down 17.2% year-on-year, with December's investment declining by 35.8% [4][21]. - New construction area decreased by 20.4% year-on-year, with December showing a 19.4% decline [20][21]. - The report adjusts 2026 forecasts, predicting a 7.7% decline in new construction and a 9.1% drop in investment [21]. Sales Side - The total sales area for 2025 was 880 million square meters, down 8.7% year-on-year, with December's sales area declining by 15.6% [22][32]. - The total sales revenue for 2025 was 8.4 trillion yuan, reflecting a 12.6% year-on-year decrease, with December's sales revenue down 23.6% [24][32]. - The average selling price of commercial housing for 2025 was 9,527 yuan per square meter, down 4.3% year-on-year [31][32]. Funding Side - Total funding sources for real estate development in 2025 amounted to 9.3 trillion yuan, a decrease of 13.4% year-on-year, with December's funding sources down 26.7% [37]. - Domestic loans saw a year-on-year decline of 7.3%, with a significant drop of 45% in December [37]. - The report anticipates that funding sources will gradually improve due to ongoing policy relaxations [37].

值得注意的是，近日，《求是》杂志刊发《改善和稳定房地产市场预期》文章。国联民生证券发布研报 称，2025年末中央经济工作会议和2026年初《求是》杂志对房地产积极定调后，市场对于房地产政策持 续落地有预期，或带动板块的春季躁动行情。 智通财经APP获悉，内房股涨幅居前，截至发稿，雅居乐集团(03383)涨4.84%，报0.325港元；富力地产 (02777)涨3.92%，报0.53港元；融创中国(01918)涨3.45%，报1.2港元；万科企业(02202)涨2.98%，报3.46 港元。 消息面上，据第一财经报道，近日有消息称，监管部门对房地产融资协调机制下发最新的政策指导。核 心是对已经进入融资协调机制"白名单"的项目，符合一定条件和标准的，可在原贷款银行进行展期。第 一财经记者从多方消息源核实，该政策属实。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [2]. Core Views - The fundamentals of the real estate industry are still bottoming out, but positive policy factors are accumulating. Recent policies include extending loan financing for whitelist projects from 2 years to 5 years and various local government initiatives to support housing and talent retention [2][26]. - The report highlights that the real estate market has undergone a deep adjustment, and with recent central government calls to stabilize the market, there is an expectation for positive policy changes ahead. The current valuation levels for quality companies are attractive [2][26]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transaction Volume - For the week of January 3-9, 2026, new home transactions in 34 key cities totaled 1.784 million square meters, a decrease of 57.3% week-on-week. Among these, first and second-tier cities saw a 58.2% decline, while third and fourth-tier cities experienced a 40.2% drop [3][4]. - Year-on-year, new home transactions in January (up to January 9) decreased by 40.9% compared to the same period last year, with first and second-tier cities down 40.6% and third and fourth-tier cities down 44.2% [4][6]. Second-Hand Home Transaction Volume - For the same week, second-hand home transactions in 13 key cities totaled 1.26 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 12.6%. However, year-on-year, January's cumulative transactions were down 23.3% compared to last year [10]. Inventory and Sales Ratio - In the week of January 3-9, 2026, 15 key cities launched 770,000 square meters of new homes, with total sales of 640,000 square meters, resulting in a sales-to-launch ratio of 0.83. The average monthly inventory turnover for the last three months was 21.6 months, a decrease of 0.24 months [19]. Policy and News Tracking - Recent policies include the Shanghai announcement for tax relief on land use for eligible taxpayers, and Nanjing's new talent policies offering living subsidies and expanded housing rental support [26][29]. - The establishment of the first local government-guided REITs fund in Xiamen, with a target size of 5.5 billion over 10 years, aims to revitalize existing assets [26][30]. Company Dynamics - December sales data for major real estate companies showed significant declines, with China Overseas Development reporting 39.83 billion yuan (-1%), and CIFI Holdings down 58.3% to 1 billion yuan [35]. - Notable changes in shareholding include the reduction of shares by the controlling shareholder of Binhai Group, decreasing their stake to 60% [35].

Core Viewpoint - Beijing continues to relax real estate policies to stimulate demand and support genuine housing needs amid a weakening property market [2][3][4] Group 1: Policy Adjustments - The recent policy changes include lowering the social security contribution requirements for non-Beijing residents, allowing families with two or more children to purchase an additional property within the Fifth Ring Road, reducing the down payment ratio for second homes from 30% to 25%, and eliminating the distinction in commercial loan rates between first and second homes [2] - These adjustments aim to lower the barriers for homebuyers and reduce their costs, thereby supporting real housing demand [2] Group 2: Market Conditions - Nationally, the residential property market has shown signs of weakness, with a reported 8.8% year-on-year decline in the total area of residential transactions for the first eleven months of the year, and a nearly 20% drop in new home sales in November alone [3] - In Beijing, the listing prices for second-hand homes have decreased by over 10% year-on-year, indicating a continued trend of price adjustments to stimulate transactions [3] - Despite the overall decline, there is a stable transaction volume in first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai, with an increase in the proportion of low-priced properties sold, suggesting some persistent demand [3] Group 3: Future Expectations - The central government's focus on stabilizing the real estate market is evident, with expectations for further policy relaxations in cities like Shanghai [4] - The stability in new and second-hand home transactions is seen as crucial for meeting residents' housing needs and promoting high-quality development in the real estate sector [4] - If transaction volumes continue to decline, more aggressive measures to stabilize the market are anticipated [4]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The real estate market is currently experiencing a downturn, particularly in first-tier cities where second-hand housing prices have fallen more than the national average, negatively impacting market confidence [1][2][4] - Despite a stable overall performance in the first half of 2025, prices have accelerated downward since the third quarter, with a significant decline in sales and investment data in October [2][3] Key Points and Arguments Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, the real estate market was stable, with good sales of new and second-hand homes, but began to decline in the third quarter [3] - The average price drop in second-hand homes across 70 cities has raised concerns about market confidence [4] Policy Environment - Administrative easing policies have not fully reversed the market downturn; the main expectation is a reduction in mortgage rates [5] - The LPR (Loan Prime Rate) saw only a slight decrease in 2025, limiting banks' ability to lower rates further due to net interest margin pressures [5] - There are discussions about implementing fiscal subsidies to alleviate the burden of mortgage loans, which could cost between 50 to 60 billion yuan annually [6] Stock Market Outlook - There is a relatively optimistic outlook for the real estate stock market, as policy advancements could improve market liquidity and company performance [7] - Companies with low debt pressure, ample cash flow, and attractive valuations are recommended for investment, particularly in Hong Kong real estate and commercial properties [7] Company-Specific Insights: Beike (贝壳找房) - Beike's revenue is affected by the price decline in first-tier cities, but its brokerage business is expected to show resilience as market demand recovers [8] - The company anticipates a net profit increase from approximately 5 billion yuan in 2025 to 7 billion yuan in 2026, driven by improved efficiency, AI technology application, and profit release from home decoration and rental businesses [9][11] - Beike's current stock price has significant upside potential, estimated at 40%-50% based on its cash reserves and low P/E ratio [12] Additional Insights Related Sectors - The kitchen appliance and integrated stove sectors are closely tied to the real estate cycle and have faced valuation pressures due to market weakness [13][14] - The central air conditioning sector is also linked to real estate, with potential for valuation recovery if market expectations shift [15] - White and black goods sectors are less correlated with real estate cycles, relying more on their own industry dynamics [16] Building Materials Market - The building materials industry has seen fluctuations in volume and price since 2021, with signs of stabilization in certain segments like coatings [17][18] - Future demand in the building materials sector is expected to decline but at a slower rate, with potential price stabilization due to supply-side adjustments [19] - Investment opportunities are seen in the renovation of existing homes, particularly in coatings and board materials, with a projected 5% compound annual growth rate in renovation area from 2025 to 2026 [21] Risk Assessment - Risks related to accounts receivable and asset impairment from the real estate sector have been effectively controlled, although attention is needed for potential asset devaluation from unsold properties [20] Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies with strong market positions and potential for recovery, such as Beike, and sectors like coatings and engineering materials that are less affected by the real estate downturn [22][24]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" and is maintained [14] Core Insights - The necessity for further relaxation of industrial policies is gradually increasing based on high-quality development and macro-prudential management. Conventional measures such as loosening purchase restrictions, moderate interest rate cuts, and tax incentives still have room for implementation. The current mortgage rates remain relatively high, especially for provident fund loans, which have significant optimization potential. On an extraordinary level, deep discounts on mortgage rates are needed, as the current discount levels are still significantly different from those in 2008-2009. Given the constraints of bank interest margins, additional subsidies from fiscal or central bank structural tools may be required. Furthermore, there is potential for further efforts in areas such as storage or old renovation. Conventional relaxations can temporarily alleviate downward pressure, while extraordinary measures can partially resolve deep-seated industry contradictions. Low interest rates are a necessary condition for structural stabilization in the industry, with remaining issues being macroeconomic in nature [3][12]. Market Performance - This week, the Yangtze River Real Estate Index increased by 2.42%, with an excess return of 3.50% relative to the CSI 300, ranking relatively high at 10 out of 32. Year-to-date, the real estate index has risen by 14.86%, with an excess return of -2.75% relative to the CSI 300, ranking lower at 22 out of 32. The real estate sector performed relatively well this week, primarily driven by increases in development and property management sectors, while rental sectors showed mixed results [9][19]. Policy Updates - The People's Bank of China released the third quarter monetary policy execution report, indicating that the economy still faces numerous risks and challenges. It emphasized the need to consolidate the foundation for economic recovery. In the real estate sector, it mentioned support for stable and healthy development, gradually implementing re-loan policies for affordable housing, and optimizing mortgage supplementary loan management. As of the end of September, the balance of mortgage supplementary loans was approximately 1 trillion yuan. Additionally, Tianjin released new regulations for public rental housing management, aiming to enhance living quality and ensure fair use of public resources [10][22]. Sales Data - The year-on-year decline in new housing transaction area in 37 sample cities slightly narrowed. The four-week rolling year-on-year decline for new housing transaction area was -37.4%, a decrease of 2.5 percentage points from the previous week. For second-hand housing, the decline was -22.3%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous week. Year-to-date, the cumulative year-on-year decline for new housing in 37 cities was -11.9%, while for second-hand housing in 17 cities, it was +8.5% [11][23].

Core Insights - The total sales of the top 100 real estate companies in China for the first ten months of 2025 reached 289.67 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 16.3%, with the decline rate widening by 4.1 percentage points compared to the first nine months of the year [1] - The sales performance in October showed a slight month-on-month recovery, with a total sales amount of 253 billion yuan, reflecting a 0.1% increase from the previous month [6] Group 1: Sales Performance by Company Tier - The average sales for the top 10 real estate companies was 143.09 billion yuan, down 15.0% year-on-year [4] - The average sales for companies ranked 11 to 30 was 35.51 billion yuan, down 17.8% year-on-year [4] - The average sales for companies ranked 31 to 50 was 17.21 billion yuan, down 16.6% year-on-year [4] Group 2: Company Breakdown - There are 7 companies in the 100 billion yuan and above tier, with sales figures of 222.7 billion yuan, 201.1 billion yuan, 189.1 billion yuan, 169.6 billion yuan, 156.0 billion yuan, 114.6 billion yuan, and 106.5 billion yuan respectively [4] - The second tier (500-1000 billion yuan) has 7 companies, down 2 from the previous year, with sales figures of 92.6 billion yuan, 92.1 billion yuan, 86.3 billion yuan, 68.7 billion yuan, 62.1 billion yuan, 55.7 billion yuan, and 55.3 billion yuan respectively [4] - The third tier (300-500 billion yuan) has 6 companies, down 3 from the previous year, with sales figures of 43.8 billion yuan, 43.5 billion yuan, 41.5 billion yuan, 33.9 billion yuan, and 32.7 billion yuan respectively [4] Group 3: Market Trends - In October, first-tier cities recorded a total transaction volume of 1.68 million square meters, remaining flat month-on-month but down 41% year-on-year [6] - The total transaction volume in 26 second and third-tier cities was 7.91 million square meters, with a slight month-on-month increase of 1% but a year-on-year decline of 35% [6] - The city of Chengdu led in monthly transactions with 800,000 square meters, followed by Qingdao, Wuhan, and Xi'an [6] Group 4: Policy Implications - The recent "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes boosting consumption and may lead to the relaxation of housing purchase restrictions in major cities [7] - The industry anticipates that as year-end performance targets approach, supply in key cities may improve, providing some support to the market [7] - A more comprehensive approach from the central government is needed to stabilize the industry and break the negative cycle [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for both the real estate and building materials sectors [2][4]. Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing a decline, with new residential sales area down 4.7% and sales value down 7.3% year-on-year for the first eight months of 2025. The decline in sales has accelerated, indicating a weakening fundamental outlook [4][25]. - The building materials sector is expected to see improved supply-demand dynamics due to government policies aimed at stabilizing growth, including restrictions on new capacity for cement and flat glass [4][47]. Summary by Sections Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector has seen a significant drop in sales, with August figures showing a year-on-year decrease of 10.98% in sales area and 14.76% in sales value. Prices in first, second, and third-tier cities have also declined [4][25]. - Policy adjustments in Shanghai aim to stimulate the market by exempting certain homebuyers from property tax, indicating a trend towards loosening regulations [4][23]. - Recommended companies for investment include Poly Developments (600048), Binjiang Group (002244), and China Merchants Shekou (001979) due to their stable operations and focus on first and second-tier cities [4][25]. Building Materials Sector - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a "Stabilization Growth Work Plan" for the building materials industry, prohibiting new capacity for cement and flat glass, which is expected to alleviate supply-demand conflicts [4][47]. - Cement demand is anticipated to recover due to urban renewal projects and infrastructure construction, with companies like Conch Cement (600585), Taipai Group (002233), and Huaxin Cement (600801) being highlighted for their investment potential [4][47]. - The glass industry is currently facing challenges, but opportunities may arise in the fiberglass sector due to growth in emerging fields such as wind power and electric vehicles, with China Jushi (600176) recommended for investment [4][49].