Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][6]. Core Insights - Shenzhen has followed Beijing and Shanghai in relaxing purchase restrictions, with a more significant impact expected compared to the latter cities [11]. - The overall performance of the real estate sector has lagged behind the broader market, with the Shenwan Real Estate Index down 1.5% this week, ranking 24th among 31 sectors [12]. - New home sales in 30 cities totaled 1.488 million square meters this week, reflecting a 17.9% decrease month-on-month and an 11.2% decrease year-on-year [23]. - The report emphasizes the importance of policy-driven changes in the real estate market, suggesting that the current policy environment is more robust than in previous cycles [4]. Summary by Sections Real Estate Development - Shenzhen's new policy has narrowed the scope of purchase restrictions, with only specific areas remaining under strict limits [11]. - The report anticipates that the marginal effects of Shenzhen's new policy will be more pronounced than those in Beijing and Shanghai [11]. Market Review - The Shenwan Real Estate Index has decreased by 1.5%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.67 percentage points [12]. - A total of 49 stocks in the real estate sector increased in value this week, while 62 stocks declined [12]. New Home and Second-Hand Home Transactions - New home sales in first-tier cities increased by 4.4% month-on-month, while second-tier cities saw a 23.3% decrease [23]. - Second-hand home transactions in 14 sample cities totaled 1.719 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 13.0% [34]. Credit Bonds - Eight credit bonds were issued by real estate companies this week, totaling 8.69 billion yuan, with a net financing amount of -1.24 billion yuan [42]. - The majority of bonds issued were rated AAA, indicating a strong credit quality among issuers [42]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on real estate stocks due to the expected policy-driven recovery and the early-cycle nature of the real estate market [4]. - Recommended companies include major players in both A-shares and H-shares, as well as local state-owned enterprises and property management firms [4].

| | | | 2025.8.8北京新政 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 政策类型 | | 新政前 | 新政后 | | | | | 2套(含通州) | 2套 | | | | 家庭 | (单身人士与未成年子女共同生活的视作家 | 五环外不限套数 | | | | | 庭) | | | | 本地户籍 | | 五环外可增购一套 | | | | | | 1套 | 2套 | | | | 黄晶/离异 | 五环外可增购一套 | (成年单身人士视作家庭) 的 临 | | | | | | 五环外不限套数 | | | | | 五环内3年社保/个税,1套: | 五环内3年社保/个税,1套; | | | | | 五环外2年社保/个税,1套; | 符合本市经济社会发展需要的高层次和急需 紧缺人才,1年社保/个税,1套; | | | 非本地户籍 | 家庭/单身 | 符合本市经济社会发展需要的高层次和急需 | | | | | | 紧缺人才,1年社保/个税,1套; | 五环外2年社保/个税,五环外不限套 | | | | | 五环外可增购一套 | | | | 首套首付比例 | | 15% STE ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan maintains an "overweight" rating for the real estate industry, anticipating an acceleration in sales and increased discounts from property companies as September marks a traditional marketing peak [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - In August 2025, the top 100 property companies reported a sales amount of 20,708.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 13.1%, with the decline rate widening by 0.5 percentage points compared to July 2025 [1] - The top 50 property companies achieved a sales amount of 17,984.8 billion yuan in August 2025, down 12.3% year-on-year, with the decline rate narrowing by 0.03 percentage points from July 2025 [2] - Approximately 30% of the top 100 property companies experienced positive year-on-year sales growth in August 2025, with the highest growth rate recorded by Bangtai Group at 215.5% [3] Group 2: Sales Thresholds - The sales threshold for the top 1-10 property companies decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, from 58.6 billion yuan to 56.1 billion yuan, indicating the smallest decline among the groups [2] - The sales threshold for the top 51-100 property companies saw the largest decline, dropping by 23.9% from 4.6 billion yuan to 3.5 billion yuan [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The report highlights that core first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai have introduced favorable policies such as relaxing purchase restrictions, with Shenzhen expected to follow suit [1] - The real estate industry is entering a low season, and the report suggests monitoring the impact of potential interest rate cuts overseas and the easing of domestic monetary policy [1]

Group 1 - In August, the average price of new residential properties in first-tier cities increased by 6.88% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.48% [1] - The average price of new residential properties in second-tier cities rose by 1.64% year-on-year, while third and fourth-tier cities experienced a year-on-year decline of 1.06% [1] - The average price of second-hand residential properties in first-tier cities decreased by 4.17% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decline of 0.55% [1] Group 2 - Recent policy adjustments in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai have relaxed purchase restrictions, allowing eligible buyers to purchase multiple properties outside the city center [2] - The central government has reiterated its goal of stabilizing the real estate market, which is expected to boost market confidence and lead to a series of supportive policies in September [2] - The traditional peak sales season in September and October is anticipated to increase market activity, with developers expected to accelerate the launch of new projects in core cities [2]

Investment Rating - CMOC Group Ltd is rated as HOLD with a target price of HK$10.74 [4][5][6] - RemeGen Co Ltd is rated as HOLD with a target price of HK$90.00 [7][9][10] - Poly Property Service is rated as BUY with a target price of HK$45.65 [12][13][14] Core Insights - CMOC Group Ltd's net profit surged 60% YoY to RMB8.67 billion in 1H25, driven by higher metal prices and reduced expenses [4][6] - RemeGen Co Ltd's revenue reached RMB1.09 billion, a 48% YoY increase, with a narrowing net loss of 42% to RMB450 million, indicating strong drug sales momentum [7][10] - Poly Property Service's revenue grew 6.6% YoY to RMB8.39 billion, with basic property management revenue increasing by 13.1% YoY [12][14] Summary by Sections CMOC Group Ltd - The company experienced a significant profit increase due to rising metal prices and lower interest expenses [4][6] - Earnings are expected to grow by 32% HoH in 2H25, supported by a RMB1.5 billion disposal gain [5][6] - The stock has outperformed the market by 71% in the past three months, leading to a downgrade to HOLD [5][6] RemeGen Co Ltd - The company reported strong revenue growth and a significant reduction in net loss, with expectations of breakeven by 2026 [7][10] - Key catalysts for future growth include data publications and regulatory submissions for its drug candidates [8][9] - The target price reflects anticipated peak sales for its key products in China and overseas [9][11] Poly Property Service - The company’s revenue growth was in line with expectations, with strong performance in core property management services [12][14] - Despite a decline in gross margin for other sectors, community value-added services saw an improvement [13][14] - EPS forecasts for 2026-27 have been increased due to accelerated property management revenue growth [13][14]

Summary of Conference Call on Shanghai Real Estate Policy Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the real estate industry in Shanghai and its recent policy changes, comparing them with similar policies in Beijing [1][3][21]. Key Points and Arguments Shanghai Real Estate Policy - Shanghai's new real estate policy is expected to significantly boost new home sales, potentially doubling transaction volumes in the first week post-implementation [1][5]. - The policy includes relaxed household registration restrictions and increased public housing fund loan limits, which are anticipated to enhance market activity [3][10]. - The expected duration of the policy's positive effects is at least one quarter, likely maintaining high transaction volumes through the "Golden September and Silver October" period [1][12]. Comparison with Beijing Policy - The new policy in Shanghai is similar to Beijing's, with both cities relaxing purchase restrictions and increasing public housing fund loan limits [3][9]. - However, Shanghai's policy is more favorable for non-local residents, as it exempts the first home purchase from property tax [3][10]. Market Performance and Predictions - The real estate sector is currently in a bullish phase, with expectations of a continued upward trend driven by policy catalysts and positive corporate earnings reports [2][6][17]. - New home sales in Beijing saw a 50%-60% increase following the last policy change, with expectations that Shanghai will outperform this [5][21]. Investment Opportunities - Recommended investment areas include commercial real estate, property management, and second-hand housing intermediaries, with specific companies highlighted such as New Town Holdings, China Resources Land, and I Love My Home [2][6][20]. - New Town Holdings is particularly favored, with a conservative valuation range of 50-75 billion, based on its strong commercial real estate performance [18][19]. Future Catalysts - Future catalysts for the real estate sector include potential policy changes in Shenzhen and macroeconomic factors such as interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could create a favorable environment for domestic rate reductions [13][16]. - Urban renewal and village reconstruction projects are expected to accelerate in the latter half of the year, further stimulating the market [14][15]. Additional Insights - The recovery of idle land and land storage has shown significant progress, with expectations of increased issuance of special bonds for land recovery [15]. - The overall sentiment is optimistic, with a strong belief that the real estate market will continue to see positive developments and investment opportunities in the coming months [21]. Conclusion - The Shanghai real estate policy is set to create substantial market activity and investment opportunities, particularly in commercial real estate and property management sectors. The overall outlook for the real estate market remains positive, with several catalysts expected to drive growth in the near future [21].

2025.08. 25 本文字数：1217，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 郑娜 时隔大约半年，万科A（000002.SZ）又迎来涨停。8月25日上午，万科A高开高走，开盘半小时左右 便触及涨停，报7.22元；同时，万科企业（02202.HK）报5.75港元，涨幅超11%。 从公司基本面来看，万科8月22日发布的最新财报显示，今年上半年，该公司实现营业收入1053.2亿 元，归属于上市公司股东的净亏损119.5亿元；同时，实现销售面积538.9万平方米，销售金额691.1 亿元，同比分别下降42.6%和45.7%，但在15个城市销售金额仍排名前三。 中指研究院政策研究总监陈文静认为，7月30日中央政治局会议后，北京率先落地优化楼市政策，未 来预计更多城市跟进，上海、深圳进一步优化限购政策、加大公积金政策支持存在较强预期。 8月18日，国务院相关会议上再次提及房地产，并表示要采取有力措施巩固房地产市场止跌回稳态 势，结合城市更新推进城中村和危旧房改造，多管齐下释放改善性需求。 在陈文静看来，7.30中央政治局会议后，监管层再提"房地产"，释放了积极信号，进一步明确了"止 跌回稳"依然是房地产政策目标，有 ...

Core Viewpoint - Vanke A (万科A) has experienced a significant stock price increase, reaching a limit up on August 25, 2023, with a reported price of 7.22 yuan, while Vanke Enterprises (万科企业) saw an increase of over 11% to 5.75 HKD [1] Company Performance - Vanke reported a revenue of 105.32 billion yuan for the first half of the year, with a net loss attributable to shareholders of 11.95 billion yuan [4] - The company achieved a sales area of 5.389 million square meters and a sales amount of 69.11 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year declines of 42.6% and 45.7% respectively [4] - Vanke successfully completed the repayment of 24.39 billion yuan in public debt as of the report date, with no foreign public debt due before 2027 [4] - The company secured 24.9 billion yuan in new financing and refinancing during the first half of the year, along with liquidity support from its largest shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group, totaling 23.88 billion yuan in shareholder loans [4] Market Environment - Vanke is actively working on risk management and reform, indicating that complete resolution of risks will require "time to exchange for space" [5] - On August 8, Beijing initiated a series of policy relaxations in the real estate sector, including adjustments to housing purchase restrictions and increased support for public housing loans [5] - The optimization of purchase restrictions is expected to boost market expectations and improve market activity, contributing to a stabilization of the real estate market [5] - There are expectations that other cities will follow suit with additional real estate support policies, particularly in Shanghai and Shenzhen [6] - The central government has reiterated its commitment to stabilizing the real estate market, indicating potential for further supportive measures [6] - Following these developments, real estate stocks have seen widespread gains, with notable increases in various companies listed in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The real estate market is in a recovery phase, with ongoing policy support expected to continue [3][8] - Sales data for the first seven months of 2025 shows a decline in both sales area and sales amount, indicating a challenging market environment [11][13] - Investment in real estate remains under pressure, with new construction and completion rates showing weakness [27][34] - Financing conditions are tightening, but there is potential for improvement as policies are implemented [34][36] - The report emphasizes the importance of leading companies in the sector, suggesting a focus on those with strong fundamentals and safety margins [41][43] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Macro Data Summary - From January to July 2025, the total sales area of commercial housing was 51,560 million square meters, down 4.0% year-on-year, and the sales amount was 49,566 billion yuan, down 6.5% year-on-year [11][12] 2. Sales Recovery Phase - Sales area and amount have decreased, with residential sales showing a decline of 6.2% [13][14] - The market is experiencing a seasonal slowdown, but policy measures are expected to boost confidence and stabilize sales [3][13] 3. Investment Pressure - Real estate investment from January to July 2025 decreased by 12.0% year-on-year, with new construction area down 19.4% [27][28] - The overall investment trend remains downward, with weak land acquisition and new construction intentions [27][34] 4. Financing Conditions - The total funds available for real estate development decreased by 7.5% year-on-year, but there are signs of potential improvement due to policy support [34][36] 5. Policy Relaxation and Price Trends - Recent policies have led to a narrowing decline in housing prices, indicating a stabilizing market [36][37] 6. Focus on Leading Companies - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with strong fundamentals and safety margins, particularly in first and second-tier cities [41][43] 7. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends maintaining a long-term investment perspective in the real estate sector, particularly in companies with robust fundamentals [43]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The real estate market continues to weaken, with new housing sales and investment indicators declining sharply. However, recent policy changes in Beijing may signal the beginning of a new round of easing, potentially opening a window for speculation in real estate stocks [4][60] - In the first seven months of 2025, national real estate development investment was 53,580 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.0%. New housing starts and completed housing areas also saw significant declines [3][35] - The average selling price of new residential properties in 2025 was 9,613 yuan per square meter, down 2.6% year-on-year, indicating a continued downward trend in property prices, particularly in first-tier cities [16][60] Summary by Sections Sales and Investment Data - In July 2025, the total sales of commercial housing amounted to 53.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.1%, marking a significant decline compared to previous months [5][60] - The cumulative sales area for commercial housing in the first seven months was 51,560 million square meters, down 4.0% year-on-year [3][5] Price Trends - The average selling price of new commercial housing in July was 9,326 yuan per square meter, down 6.8% year-on-year, with first-tier cities experiencing a more pronounced price drop compared to second and third-tier cities [16][60] - The prices of new and second-hand homes in 70 cities showed improvement, but first-tier cities' second-hand home prices continued to decline [4][16] Development and Funding - Real estate development investment in July was 6,922 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.0%, indicating a worsening trend in funding for real estate companies [35][49] - The total funding available to real estate companies was 57,287 billion yuan, down 7.5% year-on-year, with significant declines in pre-sales and personal mortgage loans [35][49] Construction Activity - New housing starts in the first seven months totaled 35,206 million square meters, down 19.4% year-on-year, while completed housing areas were 25,034 million square meters, down 16.5% [49][60] - The monthly data for new housing starts and completions showed significant fluctuations, but the cumulative decline in new starts is narrowing [49][60]