Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for both the real estate and building materials sectors [2][4]. Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing a decline, with new residential sales area down 4.7% and sales value down 7.3% year-on-year for the first eight months of 2025. The decline in sales has accelerated, indicating a weakening fundamental outlook [4][25]. - The building materials sector is expected to see improved supply-demand dynamics due to government policies aimed at stabilizing growth, including restrictions on new capacity for cement and flat glass [4][47]. Summary by Sections Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector has seen a significant drop in sales, with August figures showing a year-on-year decrease of 10.98% in sales area and 14.76% in sales value. Prices in first, second, and third-tier cities have also declined [4][25]. - Policy adjustments in Shanghai aim to stimulate the market by exempting certain homebuyers from property tax, indicating a trend towards loosening regulations [4][23]. - Recommended companies for investment include Poly Developments (600048), Binjiang Group (002244), and China Merchants Shekou (001979) due to their stable operations and focus on first and second-tier cities [4][25]. Building Materials Sector - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a "Stabilization Growth Work Plan" for the building materials industry, prohibiting new capacity for cement and flat glass, which is expected to alleviate supply-demand conflicts [4][47]. - Cement demand is anticipated to recover due to urban renewal projects and infrastructure construction, with companies like Conch Cement (600585), Taipai Group (002233), and Huaxin Cement (600801) being highlighted for their investment potential [4][47]. - The glass industry is currently facing challenges, but opportunities may arise in the fiberglass sector due to growth in emerging fields such as wind power and electric vehicles, with China Jushi (600176) recommended for investment [4][49].

纸浆2025年09月第2周报 潘盛杰 大宗商品研究所 化工研究团队负责人 投资咨询从业证号：Z0014607 纸浆自身供需不佳，宏观利好难以兑现 ◼ 现货市场变动 ◼ 基本面偏弱。 GALAXYFUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ➢ 下游原纸行业降本增效，对浆价上涨形成阻力，进口阔叶浆及本色浆市场均价走低； ➢ 进口化机浆现货市场供需变动有限，卖方让利难出货，市场均价暂稳。 ◼ 9月12日周五，住建部部长倪虹呼吁国资央企推动房地产发展新模式，河南出台支持住房消费政策和前期深圳发布的房地产调控优化政策也被广泛报道。房地产 板块股票因此表现活跃，市场对房地产政策放松的预期强烈。由于国内房地产市场的冷暖和纸浆价格呈现出具有一定领先性的特征，而房地产销售面积已持续7 个月稳定增长。这一新增变化，对浆价具有较大的利多支撑。 ◼ 目前纸浆自身基本面，依然不乐观，这可能是宏观驱动难以有效 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][6]. Core Insights - Shenzhen has followed Beijing and Shanghai in relaxing purchase restrictions, with a more significant impact expected compared to the latter cities [11]. - The overall performance of the real estate sector has lagged behind the broader market, with the Shenwan Real Estate Index down 1.5% this week, ranking 24th among 31 sectors [12]. - New home sales in 30 cities totaled 1.488 million square meters this week, reflecting a 17.9% decrease month-on-month and an 11.2% decrease year-on-year [23]. - The report emphasizes the importance of policy-driven changes in the real estate market, suggesting that the current policy environment is more robust than in previous cycles [4]. Summary by Sections Real Estate Development - Shenzhen's new policy has narrowed the scope of purchase restrictions, with only specific areas remaining under strict limits [11]. - The report anticipates that the marginal effects of Shenzhen's new policy will be more pronounced than those in Beijing and Shanghai [11]. Market Review - The Shenwan Real Estate Index has decreased by 1.5%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.67 percentage points [12]. - A total of 49 stocks in the real estate sector increased in value this week, while 62 stocks declined [12]. New Home and Second-Hand Home Transactions - New home sales in first-tier cities increased by 4.4% month-on-month, while second-tier cities saw a 23.3% decrease [23]. - Second-hand home transactions in 14 sample cities totaled 1.719 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 13.0% [34]. Credit Bonds - Eight credit bonds were issued by real estate companies this week, totaling 8.69 billion yuan, with a net financing amount of -1.24 billion yuan [42]. - The majority of bonds issued were rated AAA, indicating a strong credit quality among issuers [42]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on real estate stocks due to the expected policy-driven recovery and the early-cycle nature of the real estate market [4]. - Recommended companies include major players in both A-shares and H-shares, as well as local state-owned enterprises and property management firms [4].

Core Viewpoint - The new housing policies in Beijing and Shanghai aim to stimulate domestic demand by relaxing purchase restrictions and optimizing loan policies, although the marginal effects may be limited due to the moderate nature of the policies and prior demand releases in 2024 [1][20]. Policy Changes - Beijing's new policy allows eligible families to purchase an unlimited number of homes outside the Fifth Ring Road, while previously they were limited to two [2]. - Shanghai's new policy similarly permits families to buy an unlimited number of homes outside the Outer Ring Road, with adjustments made to local residency requirements [2][18]. Market Response - Following the implementation of the new policies, Beijing saw a slight increase in both new and second-hand home transaction volumes, with new home daily average transactions rising by 9% compared to July [4][10]. - In Shanghai, new home transactions increased by 25% compared to July, indicating a more pronounced recovery in the new home market [11][15]. Transaction Trends - In the first eight months of 2025, Beijing's new residential sales area totaled 3.42 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 6.8%, while Shanghai's new residential sales area was 6.95 million square meters, a slight decline of 4% [10][18]. - The proportion of transactions occurring outside the Fifth Ring Road in Beijing and outside the Outer Ring Road in Shanghai has consistently exceeded 70%, highlighting these areas as key markets for new home sales [19]. Future Outlook - The policies are expected to enhance market activity in peripheral areas, with potential for increased demand from families looking to upgrade their housing [20]. - As the traditional peak sales season approaches, the synchronized rollout of supportive policies in both cities is anticipated to boost market confidence and gradually restore transaction volumes [1][20].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan maintains an "overweight" rating for the real estate industry, anticipating an acceleration in sales and increased discounts from property companies as September marks a traditional marketing peak [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - In August 2025, the top 100 property companies reported a sales amount of 20,708.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 13.1%, with the decline rate widening by 0.5 percentage points compared to July 2025 [1] - The top 50 property companies achieved a sales amount of 17,984.8 billion yuan in August 2025, down 12.3% year-on-year, with the decline rate narrowing by 0.03 percentage points from July 2025 [2] - Approximately 30% of the top 100 property companies experienced positive year-on-year sales growth in August 2025, with the highest growth rate recorded by Bangtai Group at 215.5% [3] Group 2: Sales Thresholds - The sales threshold for the top 1-10 property companies decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, from 58.6 billion yuan to 56.1 billion yuan, indicating the smallest decline among the groups [2] - The sales threshold for the top 51-100 property companies saw the largest decline, dropping by 23.9% from 4.6 billion yuan to 3.5 billion yuan [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The report highlights that core first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai have introduced favorable policies such as relaxing purchase restrictions, with Shenzhen expected to follow suit [1] - The real estate industry is entering a low season, and the report suggests monitoring the impact of potential interest rate cuts overseas and the easing of domestic monetary policy [1]

Group 1 - In August, the average price of new residential properties in first-tier cities increased by 6.88% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.48% [1] - The average price of new residential properties in second-tier cities rose by 1.64% year-on-year, while third and fourth-tier cities experienced a year-on-year decline of 1.06% [1] - The average price of second-hand residential properties in first-tier cities decreased by 4.17% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decline of 0.55% [1] Group 2 - Recent policy adjustments in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai have relaxed purchase restrictions, allowing eligible buyers to purchase multiple properties outside the city center [2] - The central government has reiterated its goal of stabilizing the real estate market, which is expected to boost market confidence and lead to a series of supportive policies in September [2] - The traditional peak sales season in September and October is anticipated to increase market activity, with developers expected to accelerate the launch of new projects in core cities [2]

Investment Rating - CMOC Group Ltd is rated as HOLD with a target price of HK$10.74 [4][5][6] - RemeGen Co Ltd is rated as HOLD with a target price of HK$90.00 [7][9][10] - Poly Property Service is rated as BUY with a target price of HK$45.65 [12][13][14] Core Insights - CMOC Group Ltd's net profit surged 60% YoY to RMB8.67 billion in 1H25, driven by higher metal prices and reduced expenses [4][6] - RemeGen Co Ltd's revenue reached RMB1.09 billion, a 48% YoY increase, with a narrowing net loss of 42% to RMB450 million, indicating strong drug sales momentum [7][10] - Poly Property Service's revenue grew 6.6% YoY to RMB8.39 billion, with basic property management revenue increasing by 13.1% YoY [12][14] Summary by Sections CMOC Group Ltd - The company experienced a significant profit increase due to rising metal prices and lower interest expenses [4][6] - Earnings are expected to grow by 32% HoH in 2H25, supported by a RMB1.5 billion disposal gain [5][6] - The stock has outperformed the market by 71% in the past three months, leading to a downgrade to HOLD [5][6] RemeGen Co Ltd - The company reported strong revenue growth and a significant reduction in net loss, with expectations of breakeven by 2026 [7][10] - Key catalysts for future growth include data publications and regulatory submissions for its drug candidates [8][9] - The target price reflects anticipated peak sales for its key products in China and overseas [9][11] Poly Property Service - The company’s revenue growth was in line with expectations, with strong performance in core property management services [12][14] - Despite a decline in gross margin for other sectors, community value-added services saw an improvement [13][14] - EPS forecasts for 2026-27 have been increased due to accelerated property management revenue growth [13][14]

Summary of Conference Call on Shanghai Real Estate Policy Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the real estate industry in Shanghai and its recent policy changes, comparing them with similar policies in Beijing [1][3][21]. Key Points and Arguments Shanghai Real Estate Policy - Shanghai's new real estate policy is expected to significantly boost new home sales, potentially doubling transaction volumes in the first week post-implementation [1][5]. - The policy includes relaxed household registration restrictions and increased public housing fund loan limits, which are anticipated to enhance market activity [3][10]. - The expected duration of the policy's positive effects is at least one quarter, likely maintaining high transaction volumes through the "Golden September and Silver October" period [1][12]. Comparison with Beijing Policy - The new policy in Shanghai is similar to Beijing's, with both cities relaxing purchase restrictions and increasing public housing fund loan limits [3][9]. - However, Shanghai's policy is more favorable for non-local residents, as it exempts the first home purchase from property tax [3][10]. Market Performance and Predictions - The real estate sector is currently in a bullish phase, with expectations of a continued upward trend driven by policy catalysts and positive corporate earnings reports [2][6][17]. - New home sales in Beijing saw a 50%-60% increase following the last policy change, with expectations that Shanghai will outperform this [5][21]. Investment Opportunities - Recommended investment areas include commercial real estate, property management, and second-hand housing intermediaries, with specific companies highlighted such as New Town Holdings, China Resources Land, and I Love My Home [2][6][20]. - New Town Holdings is particularly favored, with a conservative valuation range of 50-75 billion, based on its strong commercial real estate performance [18][19]. Future Catalysts - Future catalysts for the real estate sector include potential policy changes in Shenzhen and macroeconomic factors such as interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could create a favorable environment for domestic rate reductions [13][16]. - Urban renewal and village reconstruction projects are expected to accelerate in the latter half of the year, further stimulating the market [14][15]. Additional Insights - The recovery of idle land and land storage has shown significant progress, with expectations of increased issuance of special bonds for land recovery [15]. - The overall sentiment is optimistic, with a strong belief that the real estate market will continue to see positive developments and investment opportunities in the coming months [21]. Conclusion - The Shanghai real estate policy is set to create substantial market activity and investment opportunities, particularly in commercial real estate and property management sectors. The overall outlook for the real estate market remains positive, with several catalysts expected to drive growth in the near future [21].

Core Viewpoint - Vanke A (万科A) has experienced a significant stock price increase, with a recent surge leading to a trading halt, indicating positive market sentiment despite ongoing financial challenges [3]. Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, Vanke reported a revenue of 105.32 billion yuan, with a net loss attributable to shareholders of 11.95 billion yuan [5]. - The company sold 5.389 million square meters of property, generating sales of 69.11 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year declines of 42.6% and 45.7% respectively [5]. - Vanke successfully repaid 24.39 billion yuan in public debt and has no foreign public debt due before 2027, while securing 24.9 billion yuan in new financing and refinancing [5]. Market and Policy Environment - Vanke is actively working on risk management and reform, indicating a long-term strategy to mitigate financial risks [6]. - Recent policy changes in Beijing, including the relaxation of housing purchase restrictions, are expected to boost market confidence and activity, potentially stabilizing the real estate market [7][8]. - Analysts anticipate that other cities will follow suit with similar supportive policies, which could further enhance market conditions [8]. Stock Market Reaction - The positive sentiment in the real estate sector has led to a broad increase in property stocks, with notable gains in various companies listed on both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [8].

Core Viewpoint - Vanke A (万科A) has experienced a significant stock price increase, reaching a limit up on August 25, 2023, with a reported price of 7.22 yuan, while Vanke Enterprises (万科企业) saw an increase of over 11% to 5.75 HKD [1] Company Performance - Vanke reported a revenue of 105.32 billion yuan for the first half of the year, with a net loss attributable to shareholders of 11.95 billion yuan [4] - The company achieved a sales area of 5.389 million square meters and a sales amount of 69.11 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year declines of 42.6% and 45.7% respectively [4] - Vanke successfully completed the repayment of 24.39 billion yuan in public debt as of the report date, with no foreign public debt due before 2027 [4] - The company secured 24.9 billion yuan in new financing and refinancing during the first half of the year, along with liquidity support from its largest shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group, totaling 23.88 billion yuan in shareholder loans [4] Market Environment - Vanke is actively working on risk management and reform, indicating that complete resolution of risks will require "time to exchange for space" [5] - On August 8, Beijing initiated a series of policy relaxations in the real estate sector, including adjustments to housing purchase restrictions and increased support for public housing loans [5] - The optimization of purchase restrictions is expected to boost market expectations and improve market activity, contributing to a stabilization of the real estate market [5] - There are expectations that other cities will follow suit with additional real estate support policies, particularly in Shanghai and Shenzhen [6] - The central government has reiterated its commitment to stabilizing the real estate market, indicating potential for further supportive measures [6] - Following these developments, real estate stocks have seen widespread gains, with notable increases in various companies listed in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [6]