证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 10 26 年 月 日 房地产开发 2025W43：本周新房成交同比-26.1%，9 月 70 城二手房价全面下跌 2025 年 9 月 70 城新房房价环比-0.4%，同比-2.7%。一线、二线、三 线城市环比分别-0.3%、-0.4%、-0.4%。新房价格环比上涨 5 城（-4，较 上月变化，下同），环比下跌 63 城（+6）。9 月 70 城二手房房价环比- 0.6%，同比-5.2%。一线、二线、三线城市环比分别-1.0%、-0.7%、 -0.6%。二手房价格环比上涨 0 城（-1），环比下跌 70 城（+1）。9 月 70 城二手房价全面下跌，从单月环比跌幅看，各能级城市均有不同程度扩大， 一线城市从 5 月以来环比跌幅大于二三线城市，北上广深 9 月环比分别- 0.9%、-1%、-0.8%、-1%。 行情回顾：本周申万房地产指数累计变动幅度为 1.5%，落后沪深 300 指 数 1.73 个百分点，在 31 个申万一级行业排名第 18 名。 新房：本周 30 个城市新房成交面积为 211.1 万平方米，环比下降 0.2%， 同比下降 2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The forum celebrated the 10th anniversary of China Overseas Property, highlighting its significant growth and transformation into a benchmark enterprise in the property management industry, driven by refined management and high-quality services [1][5][9]. Group 1: Leadership Insights - The leadership emphasized the importance of high-quality living standards and the shift in property services from basic management to value-driven services, aiming to enhance the quality of life for citizens [5][7]. - The company aims to innovate in management, technology, and operational models to support high-quality industry development and enhance service capabilities through systematic and standardized service solutions [7][12]. - The past decade was characterized by a transformation from a closed market to an open one, focusing on urban services and high-quality development, while integrating technology into operations [11][12]. Group 2: Market Position and Future Strategy - The company has successfully transitioned from a regular property management firm to a publicly listed benchmark company, creating a trusted brand in the industry [9][11]. - The future strategy includes becoming a comprehensive urban space operator, focusing on service value, technological integration, and sustainable development [12][20]. - The company aims to leverage its resources and strategic support from China State Construction and China Overseas Group to enhance its market position and long-term value creation [18]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Over the past decade, the company's market value increased from over 3 billion HKD to over 16 billion HKD, with a compound annual growth rate of 17% [18]. - The company is recognized for its stable cash flow and light asset model, which are crucial for long-term value in the property management sector [18]. Group 4: New Initiatives - The launch of the "4+6+N" full lifecycle product system aims to enhance community governance and integrate quality resources for better urban management [20]. - The introduction of the "Qianyi Collective Procurement" platform is designed to strengthen the core competitiveness of urban operations and improve service quality in the industry [23].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector, indicating optimism about future recovery driven by favorable policies and market dynamics [2][3]. Core Insights - The real estate industry is currently experiencing a phase of inventory reduction, with investment contraction outpacing sales decline. The report anticipates that investment recovery will be slower than in previous cycles, with projected declines in investment, new starts, and completions for 2025 [2][3][20]. - Sales metrics remain weak, with both sales area and sales amount showing declines. However, the report suggests that the industry is at a bottoming stage, with potential for demand recovery driven by proactive policies [21][34]. - Funding sources are under pressure, with a notable decline in domestic loans and self-raised funds. The report expects a gradual improvement in funding conditions as industry policies continue to relax [35][37]. Investment Analysis Summary Investment Side - From January to September 2025, total real estate investment reached 67,706 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 13.9%. In September alone, investment dropped by 21.3% compared to the previous month [3][20]. - New starts and construction activities also showed declines, with new starts down 18.9% year-on-year and construction down 9.4% [20][21]. Sales Side - The total sales area for real estate from January to September 2025 was 6.6 billion square meters, down 5.5% year-on-year. The sales amount reached 6.3 trillion yuan, a decline of 7.9% [21][34]. - The average selling price of commercial housing decreased by 3% year-on-year, with a slight improvement in the rate of decline in September [32][34]. Funding Side - Cumulative funding sources for real estate development from January to September 2025 totaled 7.2 trillion yuan, down 8.4% year-on-year. In September, the decline in funding sources was 11.5% [35][37]. - Domestic loans and self-raised funds saw significant declines, with domestic loans down 14.6% in September compared to the previous month [36][37].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate industry, indicating optimism about future developments and recovery in the sector [2][3]. Core Insights - The real estate industry is currently experiencing a phase of inventory reduction, with investment contraction outpacing sales decline. The report anticipates that the "Good Housing" policy will create new pathways for recovery, particularly in core cities, and will lead to a shift in business models from finance-oriented to manufacturing-oriented [2][3][21]. Investment Sector Summary - **Investment Trends**: From January to September 2025, total real estate development investment reached 67,706 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.9%. In September alone, investment fell by 21.3% compared to the previous month [3][20]. - **New Construction**: New construction area decreased by 18.9% year-on-year, with a slight improvement in the month-on-month comparison [20][21]. - **Completion Rates**: The completion of projects showed a positive trend in September, with a year-on-year increase of 1.5% [20][21]. Sales Sector Summary - **Sales Performance**: The total sales area for real estate from January to September 2025 was 6.6 billion square meters, down 5.5% year-on-year. In September, the sales area decreased by 10.5% compared to the same month last year [21][35]. - **Sales Revenue**: The total sales revenue was 6.3 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 7.9%. The average selling price of properties decreased by 3% year-on-year [21][35][33]. Funding Sector Summary - **Funding Sources**: Total funding sources for real estate development amounted to 7.2 trillion yuan, down 8.4% year-on-year. In September, the decline in funding sources expanded to 11.5% [36][38]. - **Loan Trends**: Domestic loans saw a year-on-year decrease of 14.6% in September, indicating tightening financial conditions for the sector [36][38]. Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including: 1. "Good Housing" companies: Jianfa International, Binjiang Group, China Resources Land, Greentown China, China Jinmao, Jianfa Holdings [2]. 2. Companies with potential for commercial real estate revaluation: New Town Holdings, Yuexiu Property, China Merchants Shekou, Longfor Group, China Overseas Development, Poly Developments, Huafa Group [2]. 3. Second-hand housing intermediaries: Beike-W, with a focus on I Love My Home [2]. 4. Property management firms: Greentown Services, China Resources Vientiane, China Merchants Jiyu, Poly Property, China Overseas Property [2].

房地产 2025 年 10 月 12 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 券 研 究 报 证券分析师 陈鹏 (8621)23297818× chenpeng@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 业 及 产 业 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 陈鹏 A0230521110002 chenpeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 房地产基本面依然低迷，板块业绩短期仍然承压 看好 ——房地产行业 2025 年三季报业绩前瞻 本期投资提示： 评 证 告 ⚫ 考虑到板块结算下降及利润率低位，预计 3Q2025 房企业绩仍承压、但有分化。基本面方 面，2022-24 年房地产行业基本面大幅下行；随着宏观及行业政策持续加码，预计后续行 业基本面有望呈现底部复苏迹象，但复苏态势仍然缓慢、且出现反复现象，预计改善路径 将呈现"L"型曲折性弱复苏走势。展望 3Q2025 板块业绩，我们认为板块业绩仍将继续 承压，主要源于：1）2021 年后销售连续下降导致结算下降；2）前期降价促 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][6] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the current real estate policies are under pressure from the fundamental market conditions, suggesting that the policy response may exceed the measures taken in 2008 and 2014 [4] - Real estate is viewed as an early-cycle indicator, making it a key economic barometer [4] - The competitive landscape in the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private companies performing well in land acquisition and sales [4] - The report continues to favor investment in first-tier and select second- and third-tier cities, which have shown better performance during sales rebounds [4] - Supply-side policies, including land storage and management of idle land, are critical areas to monitor for future developments [4] Summary by Sections New Housing Transactions - In the week covering the National Day holiday, new housing transaction volume in 30 cities was 835,000 square meters, down 55.3% week-on-week and 53.4% year-on-year [11] - The decline in new housing transactions is attributed to a combination of last year's high base and the current market's sluggishness [11][12] - The report anticipates continued pressure on year-on-year data for the fourth quarter due to elevated bases from the previous year [11] Secondary Housing Transactions - In the same week, secondary housing transactions in 14 sample cities totaled 843,000 square meters, reflecting a 27.9% decrease week-on-week and a 47.9% decrease year-on-year [21] - Year-to-date, secondary housing transactions have reached 80.2 million square meters, showing a 16.1% increase compared to the previous year [21] Market Performance - The report notes that the Shenwan Real Estate Index decreased by 0.8%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.30 percentage points, ranking 23rd among 31 Shenwan primary industries [32] - The report identifies a total of 64 stocks that increased in value during the week, while 43 stocks decreased [32] Credit Bond Issuance - During the week, two credit bonds were issued by real estate companies, totaling 940 million yuan, a decrease of 11.28 billion yuan from the previous week [3]

Core Insights - The property service industry is undergoing a deep adjustment period due to multiple pressures, including stagnant growth, declining revenue growth below 5%, profit decline, and increasing cash flow pressure since 2025 [1] C-end Market - The trend of "changing property management" is accelerating, with an increase in homeowners' willingness to switch and faster establishment of homeowners' committees [2] - Companies are facing increased operational pressure, leading to a significant number of proactive withdrawals from projects, with nearly 50 projects publicly disclosed as withdrawn between July and August 2025 [3][5] - The withdrawal of property management services is a common trend, with 35 listed property service companies exiting over 800 million square meters of managed area from 2023 to mid-2025, with 40% of companies withdrawing over 10 million square meters [5] - The acceleration of property management changes reflects issues such as service opacity and trust deficits, prompting companies to explore "transparent products," "flexible pricing," and "trust management" [7] - There are structural opportunities in the C-end market, particularly in the silver economy and pet economy, with significant demographic shifts expected by 2035 [7] B-end Market - The survival pressure on clients (B-end) is increasing, forcing property companies to enhance service efficiency and optimize operational models while maintaining service quality [9] - There is a notable trend of outsourcing to self-operated services, particularly in green plant services, driven by cost control needs [9] - Structural opportunities exist in energy management and space management, with growth rates of 11% and 12% respectively in 2025 [11] - Leading companies are focusing on new growth areas such as TMT, high-end manufacturing, and biomedicine, with significant project wins in these sectors [14] G-end Market - The G-end market shows significant differentiation, with hospitals, parks, and venues being key areas for property service companies [17] - Over 70% of top property companies have entered the hospital service sector, driven by ongoing healthcare reforms [17] - The number of parks and venues is rapidly increasing, with 28,000 parks and 4.84 million venues projected by 2024 [21] - Leading companies are adapting to industry changes by focusing on high-quality projects in first- and second-tier cities, optimizing client structures, and enhancing service standardization and branding [22]

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年9月30日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中海物業集團有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年10月2日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 02669 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 30,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.001 HKD | | 30,000,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | HKD | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 30,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.001 HKD | | 30,000,000 | 本月底法定/註冊股本總額： HKD 30,00 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4] Core Views - The current monetary policy stance in China is supportive, with measures to optimize down payment ratios and mortgage rates, potentially reducing interest expenses for over 50 million households by approximately 300 billion yuan annually [10][11] - The real estate sector is viewed as an early-cycle indicator, making it a key economic barometer [4] - The competitive landscape in the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private companies expected to benefit more in the future [4] - The report emphasizes a focus on first-tier and select second- and third-tier cities, which have shown better performance during sales rebounds [4] - Supply-side policies, including land storage and management of idle land, are critical areas to monitor for future developments [4] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The real estate index decreased by 0.2% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.22 percentage points, ranking 11th among 31 sectors [12] - In the past week, 30 cities recorded new housing transaction areas of 186.1 million square meters, a 20.0% increase month-on-month but a 23.6% decrease year-on-year [23] New Housing Transactions - New housing transaction areas in first-tier cities reached 55.8 million square meters, up 11.6% month-on-month and up 12.5% year-on-year [23] - Second-tier cities saw transactions of 91.0 million square meters, a 41.9% increase month-on-month but a 20.5% decrease year-on-year [23] - Third-tier cities recorded 39.2 million square meters, down 4.1% month-on-month and down 50.6% year-on-year [23] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - The total transaction area for second-hand housing in 14 sample cities was 198.9 million square meters, a 1.4% increase month-on-month and a 13.9% increase year-on-year [31] - Year-to-date, the cumulative transaction area for second-hand housing is 7,815.4 million square meters, reflecting a 17.3% increase year-on-year [31] Credit Bond Issuance - This week, 14 credit bonds were issued by real estate companies, totaling 14.781 billion yuan, a 67.61 billion yuan increase from the previous week [41] - The net financing amount was 4.562 billion yuan, marking a significant increase of 111.56 billion yuan from the previous week [41]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [3][4]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the broad housing demand in China has reached a bottom, although the volume and price have not yet entered a positive cycle. It predicts that the overall real estate market will continue to stabilize, with policies aimed at stopping the decline and promoting recovery [3][4]. - The report highlights significant policy support, including over 1.6 trillion yuan allocated for three major projects to stabilize the real estate market and support the delivery of nearly 20 million housing units [31][32]. - The report emphasizes the emergence of a new development track driven by favorable housing policies, which will enhance the penetration of quality housing in core cities [3][4]. Industry Data Summary New Housing Transactions - For the week of September 20-26, 2025, new housing transactions in 34 key cities totaled 2.458 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 17.2%. The transaction volume in first and second-tier cities rose by 15.4%, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a significant increase of 43.8% [4][12]. - In September, the total transaction volume for new homes in 34 cities was 8.078 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [7][8]. Second-Hand Housing Transactions - For the week of September 20-26, 2025, second-hand housing transactions in 13 key cities totaled 1.148 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 3.8%. Cumulatively, September transactions were up 21.2% year-on-year [12][13]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of September 20-26, 2025, 15 key cities launched 1.48 million square meters of new housing, with a transaction volume of 950,000 square meters, resulting in a transaction-to-launch ratio of 0.64. The total available residential area in these cities was 90.309 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 0.6% [21][22]. Policy and News Tracking - The report notes that various local governments are implementing policies to stabilize the real estate market, including subsidies for home purchases and regulations to improve housing quality [31][32]. - Shanghai has introduced new regulations to standardize balcony measurements and support the renovation of old residential areas [31][32]. Company Dynamics - New City Holdings issued USD 1.6 billion in overseas bonds, while Poly Developments announced a plan to issue corporate bonds not exceeding 150 billion yuan [38][39]. - The report tracks significant financing activities, including guarantees provided by major companies for their subsidiaries [38][39].