Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector, indicating optimism about future recovery driven by favorable policies and market dynamics [2][3]. Core Insights - The real estate industry is currently experiencing a phase of inventory reduction, with investment contraction outpacing sales decline. The report anticipates that investment recovery will be slower than in previous cycles, with projected declines in investment, new starts, and completions for 2025 [2][3][20]. - Sales metrics remain weak, with both sales area and sales amount showing declines. However, the report suggests that the industry is at a bottoming stage, with potential for demand recovery driven by proactive policies [21][34]. - Funding sources are under pressure, with a notable decline in domestic loans and self-raised funds. The report expects a gradual improvement in funding conditions as industry policies continue to relax [35][37]. Investment Analysis Summary Investment Side - From January to September 2025, total real estate investment reached 67,706 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 13.9%. In September alone, investment dropped by 21.3% compared to the previous month [3][20]. - New starts and construction activities also showed declines, with new starts down 18.9% year-on-year and construction down 9.4% [20][21]. Sales Side - The total sales area for real estate from January to September 2025 was 6.6 billion square meters, down 5.5% year-on-year. The sales amount reached 6.3 trillion yuan, a decline of 7.9% [21][34]. - The average selling price of commercial housing decreased by 3% year-on-year, with a slight improvement in the rate of decline in September [32][34]. Funding Side - Cumulative funding sources for real estate development from January to September 2025 totaled 7.2 trillion yuan, down 8.4% year-on-year. In September, the decline in funding sources was 11.5% [35][37]. - Domestic loans and self-raised funds saw significant declines, with domestic loans down 14.6% in September compared to the previous month [36][37].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate industry, indicating optimism about future developments and recovery in the sector [2][3]. Core Insights - The real estate industry is currently experiencing a phase of inventory reduction, with investment contraction outpacing sales decline. The report anticipates that the "Good Housing" policy will create new pathways for recovery, particularly in core cities, and will lead to a shift in business models from finance-oriented to manufacturing-oriented [2][3][21]. Investment Sector Summary - **Investment Trends**: From January to September 2025, total real estate development investment reached 67,706 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.9%. In September alone, investment fell by 21.3% compared to the previous month [3][20]. - **New Construction**: New construction area decreased by 18.9% year-on-year, with a slight improvement in the month-on-month comparison [20][21]. - **Completion Rates**: The completion of projects showed a positive trend in September, with a year-on-year increase of 1.5% [20][21]. Sales Sector Summary - **Sales Performance**: The total sales area for real estate from January to September 2025 was 6.6 billion square meters, down 5.5% year-on-year. In September, the sales area decreased by 10.5% compared to the same month last year [21][35]. - **Sales Revenue**: The total sales revenue was 6.3 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 7.9%. The average selling price of properties decreased by 3% year-on-year [21][35][33]. Funding Sector Summary - **Funding Sources**: Total funding sources for real estate development amounted to 7.2 trillion yuan, down 8.4% year-on-year. In September, the decline in funding sources expanded to 11.5% [36][38]. - **Loan Trends**: Domestic loans saw a year-on-year decrease of 14.6% in September, indicating tightening financial conditions for the sector [36][38]. Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including: 1. "Good Housing" companies: Jianfa International, Binjiang Group, China Resources Land, Greentown China, China Jinmao, Jianfa Holdings [2]. 2. Companies with potential for commercial real estate revaluation: New Town Holdings, Yuexiu Property, China Merchants Shekou, Longfor Group, China Overseas Development, Poly Developments, Huafa Group [2]. 3. Second-hand housing intermediaries: Beike-W, with a focus on I Love My Home [2]. 4. Property management firms: Greentown Services, China Resources Vientiane, China Merchants Jiyu, Poly Property, China Overseas Property [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [2][10]. Core Insights - The real estate sector continues to face a sluggish fundamental environment, with performance under pressure in the short term. However, there are signs of potential recovery in the future, albeit at a slow pace [4][2]. - The report anticipates that the performance of the real estate sector will remain under pressure in Q3 2025 due to declining sales and low profit margins, but a gradual recovery is expected in 2025-2026 [4][2]. - The government is emphasizing policies to stabilize the real estate market, including urban renewal initiatives and easing purchase restrictions in major cities [4][2]. Summary by Sections Performance Expectations - The report predicts that the performance of the real estate sector will continue to be challenged in Q3 2025, primarily due to a decline in sales since 2021 and low profit margins driven by previous price cuts [4][2]. - Sales data shows that the top 50 real estate companies experienced a cumulative sales area decline of 25% year-on-year in Q1-Q3 2025, with significant monthly declines in July to September [4][2]. Company Performance Forecast - The report categorizes major companies based on their expected net profit growth for Q1-Q3 2025: - Companies with growth >+15%: Binjiang Group - Companies with growth between 0% and +15%: China Merchants Jinling - Companies with growth between -15% and 0%: China Merchants Shekou - Companies with growth between -30% and -15%: Jianfa Co., New Town Holdings - Companies with growth <=-30%: Poly Developments, Huafa Group [7][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on new opportunities in the real estate sector, particularly in "good housing" policies and the revaluation of commercial real estate. Specific companies are highlighted for investment: - Good housing companies: Jianfa International, Binjiang Group, China Resources Land, Greentown China, China Jinmao, Jianfa Co. - Commercial real estate and undervalued companies: New Town Holdings, Yuexiu Property, China Merchants Shekou, Longfor Group, China Overseas Development, Poly Developments, Huafa Group [4][2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][6] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the current real estate policies are under pressure from the fundamental market conditions, suggesting that the policy response may exceed the measures taken in 2008 and 2014 [4] - Real estate is viewed as an early-cycle indicator, making it a key economic barometer [4] - The competitive landscape in the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private companies performing well in land acquisition and sales [4] - The report continues to favor investment in first-tier and select second- and third-tier cities, which have shown better performance during sales rebounds [4] - Supply-side policies, including land storage and management of idle land, are critical areas to monitor for future developments [4] Summary by Sections New Housing Transactions - In the week covering the National Day holiday, new housing transaction volume in 30 cities was 835,000 square meters, down 55.3% week-on-week and 53.4% year-on-year [11] - The decline in new housing transactions is attributed to a combination of last year's high base and the current market's sluggishness [11][12] - The report anticipates continued pressure on year-on-year data for the fourth quarter due to elevated bases from the previous year [11] Secondary Housing Transactions - In the same week, secondary housing transactions in 14 sample cities totaled 843,000 square meters, reflecting a 27.9% decrease week-on-week and a 47.9% decrease year-on-year [21] - Year-to-date, secondary housing transactions have reached 80.2 million square meters, showing a 16.1% increase compared to the previous year [21] Market Performance - The report notes that the Shenwan Real Estate Index decreased by 0.8%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.30 percentage points, ranking 23rd among 31 Shenwan primary industries [32] - The report identifies a total of 64 stocks that increased in value during the week, while 43 stocks decreased [32] Credit Bond Issuance - During the week, two credit bonds were issued by real estate companies, totaling 940 million yuan, a decrease of 11.28 billion yuan from the previous week [3]

Core Insights - The property service industry is undergoing a deep adjustment period due to multiple pressures, including stagnant growth, declining revenue growth below 5%, profit decline, and increasing cash flow pressure since 2025 [1] C-end Market - The trend of "changing property management" is accelerating, with an increase in homeowners' willingness to switch and faster establishment of homeowners' committees [2] - Companies are facing increased operational pressure, leading to a significant number of proactive withdrawals from projects, with nearly 50 projects publicly disclosed as withdrawn between July and August 2025 [3][5] - The withdrawal of property management services is a common trend, with 35 listed property service companies exiting over 800 million square meters of managed area from 2023 to mid-2025, with 40% of companies withdrawing over 10 million square meters [5] - The acceleration of property management changes reflects issues such as service opacity and trust deficits, prompting companies to explore "transparent products," "flexible pricing," and "trust management" [7] - There are structural opportunities in the C-end market, particularly in the silver economy and pet economy, with significant demographic shifts expected by 2035 [7] B-end Market - The survival pressure on clients (B-end) is increasing, forcing property companies to enhance service efficiency and optimize operational models while maintaining service quality [9] - There is a notable trend of outsourcing to self-operated services, particularly in green plant services, driven by cost control needs [9] - Structural opportunities exist in energy management and space management, with growth rates of 11% and 12% respectively in 2025 [11] - Leading companies are focusing on new growth areas such as TMT, high-end manufacturing, and biomedicine, with significant project wins in these sectors [14] G-end Market - The G-end market shows significant differentiation, with hospitals, parks, and venues being key areas for property service companies [17] - Over 70% of top property companies have entered the hospital service sector, driven by ongoing healthcare reforms [17] - The number of parks and venues is rapidly increasing, with 28,000 parks and 4.84 million venues projected by 2024 [21] - Leading companies are adapting to industry changes by focusing on high-quality projects in first- and second-tier cities, optimizing client structures, and enhancing service standardization and branding [22]

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年9月30日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中海物業集團有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年10月2日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 02669 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 30,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.001 HKD | | 30,000,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | HKD | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 30,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.001 HKD | | 30,000,000 | 本月底法定/註冊股本總額： HKD 30,00 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4] Core Views - The current monetary policy stance in China is supportive, with measures to optimize down payment ratios and mortgage rates, potentially reducing interest expenses for over 50 million households by approximately 300 billion yuan annually [10][11] - The real estate sector is viewed as an early-cycle indicator, making it a key economic barometer [4] - The competitive landscape in the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private companies expected to benefit more in the future [4] - The report emphasizes a focus on first-tier and select second- and third-tier cities, which have shown better performance during sales rebounds [4] - Supply-side policies, including land storage and management of idle land, are critical areas to monitor for future developments [4] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The real estate index decreased by 0.2% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.22 percentage points, ranking 11th among 31 sectors [12] - In the past week, 30 cities recorded new housing transaction areas of 186.1 million square meters, a 20.0% increase month-on-month but a 23.6% decrease year-on-year [23] New Housing Transactions - New housing transaction areas in first-tier cities reached 55.8 million square meters, up 11.6% month-on-month and up 12.5% year-on-year [23] - Second-tier cities saw transactions of 91.0 million square meters, a 41.9% increase month-on-month but a 20.5% decrease year-on-year [23] - Third-tier cities recorded 39.2 million square meters, down 4.1% month-on-month and down 50.6% year-on-year [23] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - The total transaction area for second-hand housing in 14 sample cities was 198.9 million square meters, a 1.4% increase month-on-month and a 13.9% increase year-on-year [31] - Year-to-date, the cumulative transaction area for second-hand housing is 7,815.4 million square meters, reflecting a 17.3% increase year-on-year [31] Credit Bond Issuance - This week, 14 credit bonds were issued by real estate companies, totaling 14.781 billion yuan, a 67.61 billion yuan increase from the previous week [41] - The net financing amount was 4.562 billion yuan, marking a significant increase of 111.56 billion yuan from the previous week [41]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [3][4]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the broad housing demand in China has reached a bottom, although the volume and price have not yet entered a positive cycle. It predicts that the overall real estate market will continue to stabilize, with policies aimed at stopping the decline and promoting recovery [3][4]. - The report highlights significant policy support, including over 1.6 trillion yuan allocated for three major projects to stabilize the real estate market and support the delivery of nearly 20 million housing units [31][32]. - The report emphasizes the emergence of a new development track driven by favorable housing policies, which will enhance the penetration of quality housing in core cities [3][4]. Industry Data Summary New Housing Transactions - For the week of September 20-26, 2025, new housing transactions in 34 key cities totaled 2.458 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 17.2%. The transaction volume in first and second-tier cities rose by 15.4%, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a significant increase of 43.8% [4][12]. - In September, the total transaction volume for new homes in 34 cities was 8.078 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [7][8]. Second-Hand Housing Transactions - For the week of September 20-26, 2025, second-hand housing transactions in 13 key cities totaled 1.148 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 3.8%. Cumulatively, September transactions were up 21.2% year-on-year [12][13]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of September 20-26, 2025, 15 key cities launched 1.48 million square meters of new housing, with a transaction volume of 950,000 square meters, resulting in a transaction-to-launch ratio of 0.64. The total available residential area in these cities was 90.309 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 0.6% [21][22]. Policy and News Tracking - The report notes that various local governments are implementing policies to stabilize the real estate market, including subsidies for home purchases and regulations to improve housing quality [31][32]. - Shanghai has introduced new regulations to standardize balcony measurements and support the renovation of old residential areas [31][32]. Company Dynamics - New City Holdings issued USD 1.6 billion in overseas bonds, while Poly Developments announced a plan to issue corporate bonds not exceeding 150 billion yuan [38][39]. - The report tracks significant financing activities, including guarantees provided by major companies for their subsidiaries [38][39].

Summary of Zhonghai Property Conference Call Company Overview - Zhonghai Property reported a 4.3% year-on-year increase in shareholder profit to HKD 770 million, with a net profit margin of 10.9% [2][4] - The company declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.09 per share, up by HKD 0.005, with a payout ratio of 35.7% [2][4] - A special dividend of HKD 1 per share was announced to celebrate the company's 10th anniversary [2][4] Financial Performance - Over the past five years, Zhonghai Property has shown steady growth in revenue, profit, and shareholder profit, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 20% [2][5] - Shareholder profit CAGR reached 23.8%, maintaining a net profit margin of 10% [2][5] - For the first half of 2025, revenue grew by 3.7% to HKD 7.1 billion, and gross profit increased by 4.7% to HKD 1.2 billion, with a gross margin improvement of 0.2 percentage points to 17% [4] Revenue and Profit Structure - The main revenue stream from property management accounts for 79%, while value-added services contribute 21% [2][6] - Gross profit from property management is 72%, with value-added services at 28% [2][6] - Gross margins for property management and value-added services improved to 15.5% and 22.5%, respectively [2][6] Project Management and Expansion - Zhonghai Property operates in 163 cities with 2,301 projects, managing a total area of 1.436 billion square meters [2][7] - In the first half of the year, the company added 32 million square meters, with third-party projects making up nearly 85% and non-residential projects close to 60% [2][7] - The company has implemented a strategy to rectify or exit underperforming projects, with a renewal rate of over 90% for profitable external projects [2][8] Strategic Focus - Zhonghai Property has adopted a high contract, high conversion, and high efficiency strategy, setting minimum gross margin thresholds for new residential, commercial, and urban service projects to ensure profitability [2][9] - The urban services market is estimated to be in the trillion-dollar range, with a CAGR of about 20%, focusing on government-funded projects such as hospitals and schools [3][14] Cash Management and Future Outlook - The company has cash reserves of approximately HKD 5 billion, sufficient to support long-term projects with extended payment terms [3][14] - Zhonghai Property is actively seeking acquisition opportunities, considering factors like business complementarity and sustainability [22] - The company plans to enhance its non-residential and urban service sectors while increasing the share of value-added services in its overall business [21] Challenges and Adjustments - The company faces pressure on revenue and profit margins in both residential and non-residential value-added services due to market conditions [16][17] - Adjustments in business structure have been made to improve profitability, particularly in intermediary services and retail offerings [18][19] Conclusion - Zhonghai Property is positioned for continued growth with a focus on strategic project management, cash reserves, and market expansion, while navigating challenges in the current economic landscape [20][21]

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to maintain a "buy" rating due to continuous improvement in project management scale and profitability, with projected net profits increasing from 16.1 billion to 19.6 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company has maintained revenue and profit growth since its listing, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23.1% in revenue and 25.7% in profit from 2019 to 2024 [1] - The profit growth rate for 2024 is expected to exceed the revenue growth rate, with gross margin and net margin increasing by 0.7 percentage points and 0.5 percentage points to 16.6% and 10.8% respectively, primarily due to improved gross margin in basic property management [1] - The dividend payout ratio has remained around 30% from 2019 to 2023, increasing to 35.8% in 2024, although it remains relatively low compared to mainstream property management companies [1] Group 2: Project Management and Market Position - As of the end of 2024, the company managed an area of 431 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 7.4%, with 60.6% of this area from related parties and 71.3% being residential [2] - The company signed new contracts for an area of 74.1 million square meters in 2024, with 63.3% from third parties, and the new contract value reached 4.44 billion yuan, with a year-on-year price increase of 21.6% [2] - The related party, China Overseas Development, achieved the highest sales scale in the industry in 2024, with a market share of 3.21% and land acquisition amounting to 80.6 billion yuan, leading the industry with 77% of acquisitions in first-tier cities [2] Group 3: Value-Added Business Development - The company has diversified its value-added services, with residential value-added business revenue growing at a CAGR of 28.6% from 2019 to 2024, although the overall gross margin has been affected by the increased revenue share from lower-margin community retail and home decoration businesses [2] - Non-residential value-added business revenue and gross margin have declined due to the downturn in real estate sales, with future focus shifting towards engineering service business [2] - Parking services revenue has decreased in recent years due to the impact of real estate sales, despite signing framework agreements for parking space transactions with related parties [2]